Mt Gambier vs Melbourne Tigers Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 06 Jul 2024

Tip-off: 10:30

Final 86-91

29-34 16-16 17-18 24-23

Position#1

Record16-4

FormWWWWW

Points / game89.4

Allowed / game80.2

Mt Gambier

Melbourne Tigers 🏆

Position#13

Record7-12

FormLLLLL

Points / game75.4

Allowed / game82.5

NBL1 South

Other2024

Meetings · Mt Gambier v Melbourne Tigers

Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mt Gambier winLost

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

Melbourne Tigers winWon

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Mt Gambier Australia

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Casey Cavaliers

#19

82-70

+12

A19/05

NBL1 South

Eltham

89-91

-2

H24/05

NBL1 South

Geelong

#11

77-84

-7

H31/05

NBL1 South

Keilor Thunder

#10

80-64

+16

A07/06

NBL1 South

Kilsyth

#16

90-81

A15/06

NBL1 South

Diamond Valley

#18

96-81

+15

A16/06

NBL1 South

Hobart Chargers

96-70

+26

H21/06

NBL1 South

Nunawading

97-80

+17

A29/06

NBL1 South

Dandenong

86-72

+14

A30/06

NBL1 South

Knox

93-85

H05/07

NBL1 South

26-14

23-16

13-26

20-14

26-27

21-21

22-21

20-22

19-20

25-19

12-20

21-25

27-18

21-18

19-18

13-10

23-18

27-24

21-22

19-17

24-20

30-14

23-18

19-29

26-25

27-17

20-14

23-14

23-28

27-14

25-20

22-18

19-20

23-15

28-21

16-16

12-17

26-19

30-22

25-27

166.4Avg total

88.6Scored

77.8Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (20)	89.4	80.2	169.6	+9.2	80%
Season at home (9)	90.2	86.7	176.9	+3.6	56%
Season away (11)	88.7	74.8	163.5	+13.9	100%
Last 10 (10)	88.6	77.8	166.4	+10.8	80%
Last 5 (5)	93.6	77.6	171.2	+16.0	100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	63.0	68.0	131.0	-5.0	0%
vs Similar (8)	94.4	87.5	181.9	+6.9	75%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)	88.5	79.3	167.8	+9.2	81%

This opponent (Melbourne Tigers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Melbourne Tigers Australia

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

NW Tasmania

#14

84-74

+10

A11/05

NBL1 South

Ballarat

80-78

H18/05

NBL1 South

Nunawading

84-78

A25/05

NBL1 South

Keilor Thunder

#10

69-82

-13

H01/06

NBL1 South

Casey Cavaliers

#19

84-79

H06/06

NBL1 South

Geelong

#11

66-72

-6

A15/06

NBL1 South

Frankston

77-86

-9

H16/06

NBL1 South

Kilsyth

#16

44-77

-33

A22/06

NBL1 South

Bendigo Braves

#15

73-91

-18

H28/06

NBL1 South

Ballarat

81-87

-6

A29/06

NBL1 South

28-19

21-17

16-10

19-28

14-24

22-20

20-23

24-11

14-20

25-18

26-15

19-25

24-15

12-22

14-25

19-20

21-28

20-16

19-22

24-13

20-19

21-18

19-18

6-17

17-31

22-20

23-20

15-15

11-14

11-23

10-21

12-19

18-34

27-14

11-24

17-19

29-21

14-22

26-21

12-23

154.6Avg total

74.2Scored

80.4Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (19)	75.4	82.5	157.9	-7.1	37%
Season at home (10)	75.7	84.1	159.8	-8.4	30%
Season away (9)	75.1	80.7	155.8	-5.6	44%
Last 10 (10)	74.2	80.4	154.6	-6.2	40%
Last 5 (5)	68.2	82.6	150.8	-14.4	0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)	77.0	86.0	163.0	-9.0	38%
vs Similar (11)	78.6	81.9	160.5	-3.3	36%
vs Weaker (3)	85.7	80.0	165.7	+5.7	100%

This opponent (Mt Gambier) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

Mt GambierMelbourne Tigers

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	23.3	22.5	45.8	+0.8	50%	-
Last 30 at home (13)	22.8	23.4	46.2	-0.5	38%	-
Last 30 away (17)	23.6	21.9	45.5	+1.8	59%	-
Last 10 (10)	22.5	20.7	43.2	+1.8	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	20.8	22.0	42.8	-1.2	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	22.0	20.0	42.0	+2.0	100%	-
vs Similar (8)	23.6	24.1	47.8	-0.5	50%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (21)	23.2	22.0	45.3	+1.2	48%	-

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	20.2	22.5	42.6	-2.3	40%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	19.3	23.1	42.4	-3.8	25%	-
Last 30 away (14)	21.1	21.8	42.9	-0.6	57%	-
Last 10 (10)	19.6	22.5	42.1	-2.9	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.0	23.8	42.8	-4.8	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)	19.5	23.1	42.6	-3.6	38%	-
vs Similar (11)	21.0	21.1	42.1	-0.1	45%	-
vs Weaker (3)	20.7	24.3	45.0	-3.7	33%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	23.3	18.6	41.9	+4.6	73%	-
Last 30 at home (13)	23.8	19.5	43.2	+4.3	69%	-
Last 30 away (17)	22.9	18.0	40.9	+4.9	76%	-
Last 10 (10)	25.0	17.7	42.7	+7.3	90%	-
Last 5 (5)	26.6	15.8	42.4	+10.8	100%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	12.0	13.0	25.0	-1.0	0%	-
vs Similar (8)	23.8	19.5	43.2	+4.2	62%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (21)	23.6	18.6	42.2	+5.0	81%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	19.4	20.0	39.4	-0.7	50%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	20.2	20.8	40.9	-0.6	50%	-
Last 30 away (14)	18.4	19.2	37.6	-0.8	50%	-
Last 10 (10)	19.5	19.0	38.5	+0.5	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.0	19.4	38.4	-0.4	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)	18.9	21.1	39.9	-2.2	38%	-
vs Similar (11)	20.5	20.3	40.8	+0.3	55%	-
vs Weaker (3)	17.7	13.7	31.3	+4.0	100%	-

Mt GambierLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Casey Cavaliers

#19

49-30

+19

A19/05

NBL1 South

Eltham

47-48

-1

H24/05

NBL1 South

Geelong

#11

44-39

H31/05

NBL1 South

Keilor Thunder

#10

48-36

+12

A07/06

NBL1 South

Kilsyth

#16

50-42

A15/06

NBL1 South

Diamond Valley

#18

54-34

+20

A16/06

NBL1 South

Hobart Chargers

53-42

+11

H21/06

NBL1 South

Nunawading

50-42

A29/06

NBL1 South

Dandenong

42-35

A30/06

NBL1 South

Knox

38-36

H05/07

NBL1 South

85.9Avg total

47.5Scored

38.4Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	46.6	41.2	87.7	+5.4	70%	-
Last 30 at home (13)	46.6	42.8	89.5	+3.8	69%	-
Last 30 away (17)	46.5	39.9	86.4	+6.6	71%	-
Last 10 (10)	47.5	38.4	85.9	+9.1	90%	-
Last 5 (5)	47.4	37.8	85.2	+9.6	100%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	34.0	33.0	67.0	+1.0	100%	-
vs Similar (8)	47.4	43.6	91.0	+3.8	50%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (21)	46.9	40.6	87.5	+6.2	76%	-

This opponent (Melbourne Tigers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Melbourne TigersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

NW Tasmania

#14

49-36

+13

A11/05

NBL1 South

Ballarat

36-44

-8

H18/05

NBL1 South

Nunawading

39-38

A25/05

NBL1 South

Keilor Thunder

#10

36-37

-1

H01/06

NBL1 South

Casey Cavaliers

#19

41-44

-3

H06/06

NBL1 South

Geelong

#11

41-37

A15/06

NBL1 South

Frankston

39-51

-12

H16/06

NBL1 South

Kilsyth

#16

22-37

-15

A22/06

NBL1 South

Bendigo Braves

#15

45-48

-3

H28/06

NBL1 South

Ballarat

43-43

A29/06

NBL1 South

80.6Avg total

39.1Scored

41.5Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	39.5	42.5	82.0	-3.0	33%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	39.5	43.8	83.3	-4.3	19%	-
Last 30 away (14)	39.6	41.0	80.6	-1.4	50%	-
Last 10 (10)	39.1	41.5	80.6	-2.4	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	38.0	43.2	81.2	-5.2	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)	38.4	44.1	82.5	-5.8	25%	-
vs Similar (11)	41.5	41.4	82.9	+0.2	45%	-
vs Weaker (3)	38.3	38.0	76.3	+0.3	33%	-

This opponent (Mt Gambier) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	21.0	20.4	41.3	+0.6	50%	-
Last 30 at home (13)	20.2	20.0	40.2	+0.2	54%	-
Last 30 away (17)	21.5	20.6	42.2	+0.9	47%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.3	20.2	41.5	+1.1	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	25.2	19.0	44.2	+6.2	100%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	13.0	13.0	26.0	+0.0	0%	-
vs Similar (8)	21.6	22.6	44.2	-1.0	38%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (21)	21.1	19.9	41.0	+1.2	57%	-

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	19.2	21.0	40.2	-1.7	40%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	19.6	21.3	40.9	-1.7	44%	-
Last 30 away (14)	18.8	20.6	39.4	-1.8	36%	-
Last 10 (10)	18.4	19.9	38.3	-1.5	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	17.8	20.8	38.6	-3.0	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)	21.2	21.5	42.7	-0.3	44%	-
vs Similar (11)	17.3	20.1	37.4	-2.8	45%	-
vs Weaker (3)	16.0	21.3	37.3	-5.3	0%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	21.2	19.2	40.4	+2.1	57%	-
Last 30 at home (13)	22.3	19.8	42.1	+2.5	54%	-
Last 30 away (17)	20.4	18.7	39.1	+1.7	59%	-
Last 10 (10)	19.8	19.2	39.0	+0.6	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	21.0	20.8	41.8	+0.2	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	16.0	22.0	38.0	-6.0	0%	-
vs Similar (8)	23.8	19.8	43.5	+4.0	62%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (21)	20.5	18.8	39.3	+1.7	57%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.9	20.0	38.9	-1.2	47%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	21.9	19.3	41.2	+2.6	62%	-
Last 30 away (14)	15.4	20.9	36.2	-5.5	29%	-
Last 10 (10)	16.7	19.0	35.7	-2.3	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	12.4	18.6	31.0	-6.2	0%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)	16.5	20.2	36.7	-3.7	38%	-
vs Similar (11)	19.8	20.5	40.3	-0.6	45%	-
vs Weaker (3)	28.0	17.7	45.7	+10.3	100%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	42.2	39.5	81.7	+2.7	60%	-
Last 30 at home (13)	42.5	39.8	82.3	+2.8	62%	-
Last 30 away (17)	41.9	39.4	81.3	+2.6	59%	-
Last 10 (10)	41.1	39.4	80.5	+1.7	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	46.2	39.8	86.0	+6.4	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	29.0	35.0	64.0	-6.0	0%	-
vs Similar (8)	45.4	42.4	87.8	+3.0	50%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (21)	41.6	38.7	80.3	+3.0	67%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	38.1	41.0	79.1	-2.9	40%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	41.6	40.6	82.2	+0.9	56%	-
Last 30 away (14)	34.1	41.4	75.6	-7.3	21%	-
Last 10 (10)	35.1	38.9	74.0	-3.8	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	30.2	39.4	69.6	-9.2	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)	37.7	41.7	79.4	-4.0	38%	-
vs Similar (11)	37.1	40.5	77.6	-3.5	36%	-
vs Weaker (3)	44.0	39.0	83.0	+5.0	67%	-

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Mt Gambier wins

Melbourne Tigers wins

Date	Game	Score
07/05/23	Melbourne Tigers v Mt Gambier	100-76
28/05/22	Mt Gambier v Melbourne Tigers	88-56
09/05/21	Melbourne Tigers v Mt Gambier	95-123
30/07/17	Melbourne Tigers v Mt Gambier	83-110
01/07/16	Mt Gambier v Melbourne Tigers	106-67
28/05/16	Melbourne Tigers v Mt Gambier	78-73

Mt Gambierlast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
05/07/24	H	Knox	93-85
30/06/24	A	Dandenong	86-72
29/06/24	A	Nunawading	97-80
21/06/24	H	Hobart Chargers	96-70
16/06/24	A	Diamond Valley	96-81
15/06/24	A	Kilsyth	90-81
07/06/24	A	Keilor Thunder	80-64
31/05/24	H	Geelong	77-84
24/05/24	H	Eltham	89-91
19/05/24	A	Casey Cavaliers	82-70

Melbourne Tigerslast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
29/06/24	A	Ballarat	81-87
28/06/24	H	Bendigo Braves	73-91
22/06/24	A	Kilsyth	44-77
16/06/24	H	Frankston	77-86
15/06/24	A	Geelong	66-72
06/06/24	H	Casey Cavaliers	84-79
01/06/24	H	Keilor Thunder	69-82
25/05/24	A	Nunawading	84-78
18/05/24	H	Ballarat	80-78
11/05/24	A	NW Tasmania	84-74

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Mt Gambier

NBL1 South 2024

Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWWWW	80%
Home	WLLWW	56%
Away	WWWWW	100%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	20	9	11
Win %	80%	56%	100%
Points / game	89.4	90.2	88.7
Allowed / game	80.2	86.7	74.8
Point differential	+9.2	+3.6	+13.9
Avg total	169.6	176.9	163.5
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	55%	22%	82%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	50% (2)	0% (1)	100% (1)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

Melbourne Tigers

NBL1 South 2024

Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LLLLL	37%
Home	WLWLL	30%
Away	WWLLL	44%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	19	10	9
Win %	37%	30%	44%
Points / game	75.4	75.7	75.1
Allowed / game	82.5	84.1	80.7
Point differential	-7.1	-8.4	-5.6
Avg total	157.9	159.8	155.8
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	11%	0%	22%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	100% (3)	100% (2)	100% (1)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Mt Gambier	20	16	4	80%	89.4	80.2	+9.2
2	Ballarat	20	14	6	70%	91.5	86.0	+5.5
3	Sandringham Sabres	19	13	6	68%	93.6	81.5	+12.1
4	Frankston	19	12	7	63%	93.1	83.6	+9.5
5	Keilor Thunder	19	12	7	63%	89.5	89.8	-0.3
6	Eltham	20	12	8	60%	89.2	82.6	+6.6
7	Hobart Chargers	20	12	8	60%	82.8	80.9	+1.9
8	Dandenong	20	12	8	60%	84.2	83.3	+0.8
9	Waverley	19	11	8	58%	93.4	87.8	+5.5
10	Knox	20	11	9	55%	94.0	82.8	+11.2
11	Geelong	19	10	9	53%	79.6	83.2	-3.5
12	Nunawading	20	10	10	50%	85.0	85.3	-0.3
13	NW Tasmania	20	9	11	45%	83.2	89.6	-6.4
14	Melbourne Tigers	19	7	12	37%	75.4	82.5	-7.1
15	Bendigo Braves	21	7	14	33%	80.6	87.7	-7.1
16	Ringwood	21	6	15	29%	84.1	90.3	-6.1
17	Diamond Valley	19	5	14	26%	85.2	95.5	-10.3
18	Kilsyth	20	5	15	25%	77.3	87.0	-9.7
19	Casey Cavaliers	19	3	16	16%	78.7	89.9	-11.2

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Mt Gambier	29	16	17	24	86
Melbourne Tigers	34	16	18	23	91

← all games of the day

Mt Gambier vs Melbourne Tigers Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Get it on Telegram

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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