PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Murray State vs NC State Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 19 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 23:00
Projected 86-75
Projected total 161.2
Scheduled
Position#26
Record4-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game95.0
Allowed / game67.5
Murray State
USA
Vs
82%
18%
■ MURR 82%■ NC S 18%
Pythia win probability
NC State
USA
Position#48
Record4-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game83.8
Allowed / game62.2
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Murray State faces NC State on 19 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model designating the home team as the clear favourite because it has a 4-0 record, 95.0 points per game and 67.5 allowed, while NC State also sits 4-0 but averages 83.8 points and 62.2 allowed; the model rates Murray State 82% to win versus 18% for NC State and projects a 86-75 score for a 161.2 total. Murray State has gone 3-0 at home, scoring 95.3 and allowing 68.7, and has won four of its last five games, including a 99-78 victory over Texas Southern, a 94-57 win over Alcorn State and a 93-71 win over Northwestern St.; NC State has also won four of its last five, with recent wins of 81-62 over Troy, 94-60 over Presbyterian and 77-63 over East Tennessee St. The two teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. The Pythia model gives Murray State a 82% chance to win, NC State 18%, and a 3% probability of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Murray State win
82.4%fair 1.21
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
NC State win
17.6%fair 5.68
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 07:33 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Murray StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#311
W
74-72
74
72
+2
A13/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
70-87
70
87
-17
H15/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
L
61-78
61
78
-17
A19/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
88-75
88
75
+13
H21/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
78-87
78
87
-9
A01/03
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
79-92
79
92
-13
H06/03
NCAA
Tennessee State
#187
W
94-64
94
64
+30
A02/11
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#326
W
93-71
93
71
+22
H08/11
NCAA
Alcorn State
#389
W
94-57
94
57
+37
H11/11
NCAA
Texas Southern
#328
W
99-78
99
78
+21
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
43-21
31-51
39-24
31-63
28-36
33-42
37-36
51-39
35-36
43-51
32-50
47-42
46-35
48-29
42-39
51-32
51-30
43-27
50-38
49-40
159.1Avg total
83.0Scored
76.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)95.067.5162.5+27.5100%
Season at home (3)95.368.7164.0+26.7100%
Season away (1)94.064.0158.0+30.0100%
Last 10 (10)83.076.1159.1+6.960%
Last 5 (5)91.872.4164.2+19.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)80.489.7170.1-9.329%
vs Similar (14)81.377.8159.1+3.564%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)87.470.6158.0+16.9100%
This opponent (NC State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NC StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Notre Dame
#269
L
90-96 OT
90
96
-6
A28/02
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
64-93
64
93
-29
H03/03
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
84-85
84
85
-1
H07/03
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
98-88
98
88
+10
H11/03
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
74-81
74
81
-7
A12/03
NCAA
Texas
#135
L
66-68
66
68
-2
H18/03
NCAA
Campbell
#317
W
83-64
83
64
+19
H03/11
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#282
W
77-63
77
63
+14
H07/11
NCAA
Presbyterian
#379
W
94-60
94
60
+34
H11/11
NCAA
Troy
#325
W
81-62
81
62
+19
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
44-38
37-43
30-47
34-46
34-37
50-48
51-50
47-38
32-33
42-48
29-30
37-38
41-19
42-45
35-36
42-27
46-19
48-41
36-27
45-35
157.1Avg total
81.1Scored
76.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)83.862.2146.0+21.5100%
Season at home (4)83.862.2146.0+21.5100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)81.176.0157.1+5.150%
Last 5 (5)80.263.4143.6+16.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)70.5105.5176.0-35.00%
vs Similar (12)75.974.1150.0+1.842%
vs Weaker (16)86.470.2156.6+16.288%
This opponent (Murray State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 147
Over 147
81.0%
Under 147
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 152
Over 152
71.3%
Under 152
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 157
Over 157
59.8%
Under 157
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Murray State total 81.5
Over 81.5
67.0%
Under 81.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murray State total 85.5
Over 85.5
51.6%
Under 85.5
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murray State total 89.5
Over 89.5
35.8%
Under 89.5
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NC State total 62
Over 62
91.0%
Under 62
9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NC State total 66
Over 66
82.6%
Under 66
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NC State total 70
Over 70
70.1%
Under 70
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Murray State -3
MURR -3
76.7%
NC S +3
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
MURR
No market prices yet.
NC S
No market prices yet.
Spread Murray State 0
MURR 0
82.4%
NC S 0
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
MURR
No market prices yet.
NC S
No market prices yet.
Spread Murray State +3
MURR +3
87.7%
NC S -3
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
MURR
No market prices yet.
NC S
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +5.8+5.81st half: +4.2+4.22nd half2nd half: +1.1+1.12nd half: +1.5+1.5
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +5.8+5.81st half: +4.2+4.22nd half2nd half: +1.1+1.12nd half: +1.5+1.5
Murray StateNC State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Murray StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#311
W
43-21
43
21
+22
A13/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
W
39-24
39
24
+15
H15/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
L
28-36
28
36
-8
A19/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
37-36
37
36
+1
H21/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
35-36
35
36
-1
A01/03
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
32-50
32
50
-18
H06/03
NCAA
Tennessee State
#187
W
46-35
46
35
+11
A02/11
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#326
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H08/11
NCAA
Alcorn State
#389
W
51-30
51
30
+21
H11/11
NCAA
Texas Southern
#328
W
50-38
50
38
+12
H14/11
NCAA
74.8Avg total
40.3Scored
34.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.836.276.0+3.667%-
Last 30 at home (17)41.235.276.4+6.182%-
Last 30 away (13)37.837.575.4+0.346%-
Last 10 (10)40.334.574.8+5.870%-
Last 5 (5)44.238.482.6+5.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)36.739.976.6-3.157%-
vs Similar (14)37.936.274.1+1.750%-
vs Weaker ◀ (9)45.033.378.3+11.7100%-
This opponent (NC State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NC StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Notre Dame
#269
W
44-38
44
38
+6
A28/02
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
30-47
30
47
-17
H03/03
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
34-37
34
37
-3
H07/03
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
51-50
51
50
+1
H11/03
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
32-33
32
33
-1
A12/03
NCAA
Texas
#135
L
29-30
29
30
-1
H18/03
NCAA
Campbell
#317
W
41-19
41
19
+22
H03/11
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#282
L
35-36
35
36
-1
H07/11
NCAA
Presbyterian
#379
W
46-19
46
19
+27
H11/11
NCAA
Troy
#325
W
36-27
36
27
+9
H14/11
NCAA
71.4Avg total
37.8Scored
33.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.133.171.1+5.067%-
Last 30 at home (20)38.031.669.5+6.470%-
Last 30 away (10)38.236.174.3+2.160%-
Last 10 (10)37.833.671.4+4.250%-
Last 5 (5)37.426.263.6+11.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)33.051.584.5-18.50%-
vs Similar (12)33.431.965.3+1.542%-
vs Weaker (16)42.231.673.8+10.694%-
This opponent (Murray State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Murray State wins
0
NC State wins
No previous meetings.
Murray Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HTexas Southern99-78
11/11/26HAlcorn State94-57
08/11/26HNorthwestern St.93-71
02/11/26ATennessee State94-64
06/03/26HIllinois (Chi.)79-92
01/03/26ABradley78-87
21/02/26HEvansville88-75
19/02/26AIllinois State61-78
15/02/26HBelmont70-87
13/02/26AIndiana State74-72
NC Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HTroy81-62
11/11/26HPresbyterian94-60
07/11/26HEast Tennessee St77-63
03/11/26HCampbell83-64
18/03/26HTexas66-68
12/03/26AVirginia74-81
11/03/26HPittsburgh98-88
07/03/26HStanford84-85
03/03/26HDuke64-93
28/02/26ANotre Dame90-96 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Murray State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game95.095.394.0
Allowed / game67.568.764.0
Point differential+27.5+26.7+30.0
Avg total162.5164.0158.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
NC State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWW100%
HomeWWWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games44-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game83.883.8-
Allowed / game62.262.2-
Point differential+21.5+21.5-
Avg total146.0146.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Murray State440100%95.067.5+27.5
2 Drake330100%85.762.7+23.0
3 Illinois (Chi.)43175%79.564.8+14.8
4 Southern Illinois32167%85.070.0+15.0
5 Belmont32167%74.062.3+11.7
6 Valparaiso32167%77.373.0+4.3
7 Indiana State42250%80.265.8+14.5
8 Evansville42250%76.076.2-0.2
9 Bradley52340%59.856.4+3.4
10 Northern Iowa52340%85.286.0-0.8
11 Illinois State41325%81.275.8+5.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Louisville220100%95.563.5+32.0
2 SMU Mustangs440100%92.067.5+24.5
3 Boston College330100%76.353.0+23.3
4 Notre Dame440100%87.564.2+23.2
5 Virginia550100%91.869.6+22.2
6 Virginia Tech440100%89.867.8+22.0
7 NC State440100%83.862.2+21.5
8 Pittsburgh440100%83.264.5+18.8
9 Georgia Tech440100%82.570.8+11.8
10 California54180%85.874.8+11.0
11 Duke43175%90.057.0+33.0
12 Miami (FL)43175%83.259.2+24.0
13 Wake Forest43175%76.262.8+13.5
14 North Carolina43175%83.870.8+13.0
15 Stanford43175%78.569.2+9.2
16 Clemson43175%84.276.8+7.5
17 Syracuse32167%85.363.3+22.0
18 Florida State42250%79.080.2-1.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.