PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Nacional vs Paisas Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 23:40
Final 96-75
22-17 22-19 30-17 22-22
Position#1
Record7-0
FormWLLWW
Points / game85.4
Allowed / game75.7
vs
Position#8
Record3-4
FormLWLWL
Points / game90.1
Allowed / game91.0
EuropeChampions League AmericasChampions League Americas - Quarter-finals· Polideportivo Gran Parque Central
Other2025-26Neutral venue
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nacional winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Paisas winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NacionalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNacional
Date
Competition
Bigua
#5
W
97-73
97
73
+24
91avg 81
H23/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
L
94-97
94
97
-3
83avg 81
A27/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
L
81-102
81
102
-21
60avg 81
A30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
79-53
79
53
+26
74avg 81
H03/02
Liga Uruguaya
Obras Sanitarias
#9
W
77-73
77
73
+4
66avg 81
A07/02
Champions League Americas
Flamengo
#7
W
89-79
89
79
+10
91avg 81
H08/02
Champions League Americas
Defensor
#7
L
73-82
73
82
-9
60avg 81
A12/02
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
L
81-91
81
91
-10
70avg 81
A16/02
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
W
126-75
126
75
+51
120avg 81
H19/02
Liga Uruguaya
Paisas
#8
W
97-94
97
94
+3
86avg 81
A07/03
Champions League Americas
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-18
35-15
24-18
7-22
25-24
16-26
25-26
28-21
20-20
24-31
16-23
21-28
20-18
24-12
13-13
22-10
15-16
17-24
21-19
24-14
21-27
24-18
33-24
11-10
24-38
14-15
18-16
17-13
19-31
22-17
22-20
18-23
29-22
37-27
36-10
24-16
25-25
28-26
26-23
18-20
171.3Avg total
89.4Scored
81.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)85.475.7161.1+9.7100%
Season at home (3)79.771.0150.7+8.7100%
Season away (4)89.879.2169.0+10.5100%
Last 10 (10)89.481.9171.3+7.560%
Last 5 (5)93.284.2177.4+9.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)65.584.5150.0-19.00%
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (28)92.080.9173.0+11.179%
This opponent (Paisas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PaisasLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaisas
Date
Competition
Cimarrones del Choco
#7
W
85-61
85
61
+24
86avg 84
H05/12
LBP
Cimarrones del Choco
#7
W
93-85
93
85
+8
94avg 84
H06/12
LBP
Cimarrones del Choco
#7
W
81-69
81
69
+12
73avg 84
A10/12
LBP
Caimanes del Llano
#12
W
109-62
109
62
+47
113avg 84
H28/01
Champions League Americas
Astros
#3
L
59-87
59
87
-28
48avg 84
H30/01
Champions League Americas
Astros
#3
L
92-100
92
100
-8
82avg 84
A03/02
Champions League Americas
Caimanes del Llano
#12
W
107-91
107
91
+16
103avg 84
A04/02
Champions League Americas
Astros
#3
L
72-125
72
125
-53
53avg 84
A11/02
Champions League Americas
Caimanes del Llano
#12
W
98-75
98
75
+23
92avg 84
H12/02
Champions League Americas
Nacional
#1
L
94-97
94
97
-3
82avg 84
H07/03
Champions League Americas
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-9
31-14
19-22
16-16
28-19
24-16
23-20
18-30
13-19
21-25
18-16
29-9
24-17
26-15
29-9
30-21
9-16
18-29
14-18
18-24
24-32
20-17
27-28
21-23
28-17
28-25
20-22
31-27
17-31
23-26
18-30
14-38
29-16
22-16
23-24
24-19
25-25
26-28
23-26
20-18
174.2Avg total
89.0Scored
85.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)90.191.0181.1-0.943%
Season at home (4)90.080.2170.2+9.850%
Season away (3)90.3105.3195.7-15.033%
Last 10 (10)89.085.2174.2+3.860%
Last 5 (5)92.697.6190.2-5.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)79.2102.2181.5-23.00%
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker (26)91.773.3165.0+18.485%
This opponent (Nacional) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -1.0-1.0Q1: +1.5+1.5Q2Q2: +3.0+3.0Q2: +2.8+2.8Q3Q3: +4.2+4.2Q3: -0.1-0.1Q4Q4: +1.3+1.3Q4: -0.4-0.4
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -1.0-1.0Q1: +1.5+1.5Q2Q2: +3.0+3.0Q2: +2.8+2.8Q3Q3: +4.2+4.2Q3: -0.1-0.1Q4Q4: +1.3+1.3Q4: -0.4-0.4
NacionalPaisas
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NacionalLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bigua
#5
W
66-33
66
33
+33
H23/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
L
41-50
41
50
-9
A27/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
L
44-51
44
51
-7
A30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
44-30
44
30
+14
H03/02
Liga Uruguaya
Obras Sanitarias
#9
L
32-40
32
40
-8
A07/02
Champions League Americas
Flamengo
#7
D
45-45
45
45
+0
H08/02
Champions League Americas
Defensor
#7
L
38-53
38
53
-15
A12/02
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
L
41-48
41
48
-7
A16/02
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
W
66-49
66
49
+17
H19/02
Liga Uruguaya
Paisas
#8
W
53-51
53
51
+2
A07/03
Champions League Americas
92.0Avg total
47.0Scored
45.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.642.689.2+4.060%-
Last 30 at home (15)46.438.885.2+7.673%-
Last 30 away (15)46.846.493.2+0.447%-
Last 10 (10)47.045.092.0+2.040%-
Last 5 (5)48.649.297.8-0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)31.041.572.5-10.50%-
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (28)47.742.790.4+5.064%-
This opponent (Paisas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PaisasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cimarrones del Choco
#7
W
50-23
50
23
+27
H05/12
LBP
Cimarrones del Choco
#7
W
52-35
52
35
+17
H06/12
LBP
Cimarrones del Choco
#7
L
34-44
34
44
-10
A10/12
LBP
Caimanes del Llano
#12
W
50-32
50
32
+18
H28/01
Champions League Americas
Astros
#3
L
27-45
27
45
-18
H30/01
Champions League Americas
Astros
#3
L
44-49
44
49
-5
A03/02
Champions League Americas
Caimanes del Llano
#12
W
56-42
56
42
+14
A04/02
Champions League Americas
Astros
#3
L
40-57
40
57
-17
A11/02
Champions League Americas
Caimanes del Llano
#12
W
51-32
51
32
+19
H12/02
Champions League Americas
Nacional
#1
L
51-53
51
53
-2
H07/03
Champions League Americas
86.7Avg total
45.5Scored
41.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.339.084.3+6.367%-
Last 30 at home (16)45.838.183.9+7.869%-
Last 30 away (14)44.740.084.7+4.764%-
Last 10 (10)45.541.286.7+4.350%-
Last 5 (5)48.446.695.0+1.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)40.551.091.5-10.50%-
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker (26)46.037.183.2+8.977%-
This opponent (Nacional) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Nacionaltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nacional: 89.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.4 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.2 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.8 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.9 points a game
48%
36%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.720.7
50.9%
54.0%41.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.610.4
36.4%
32.4%31.2
🏀 Free throws25.516.8
65.9%
69.7%16.8
They take 69.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 46%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Paisastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Paisas: 88.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.8 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.3 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.5 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.9 points a game
48%
36%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.621.9
58.2%
54.0%43.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.511.1
36.4%
32.4%33.3
🏀 Free throws16.711.5
68.9%
69.7%11.5
They take 68.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 46%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Nacional
WWLLWWWLLW
Paisas
LWLWLLWWWW
#1
League position
#8
+8.1
Net rating
+4.3
97.0
Offensive rating
99.3
88.9
Defensive rating
95.0
52.4%
Effective FG%
56.6%
51.9%
Opp. effective FG%
48.9%
13.7%
Turnover %
16.6%
0.37
Free-throw rate
0.25
36.4%
3-point %
36.4%
54.0%
Assist %
54.2%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence97.0 · 99.3Defence88.9 · 95.0Shooting52.4% · 56.6%3-point %36.4% · 36.4%Ball care13.7% · 16.6%Off. rebounds- · 18.3%Free throws0.37 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)60% · 60%
■ Nacional   ■ Paisas
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Nacional wins
0
Paisas wins
DateGameScore
07/03/26Paisas v Nacional94-97
Nacionallast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/03/26APaisas97-94
19/02/26HCordon126-75
16/02/26AUnion Atletica81-91
12/02/26ADefensor73-82
08/02/26HFlamengo89-79
07/02/26AObras Sanitarias77-73
03/02/26HMalvin79-53
30/01/26AHebraica y Macabi81-102
27/01/26AUrunday94-97
23/01/26HBigua97-73
Paisaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/03/26HNacional94-97
12/02/26HCaimanes del Llano98-75
11/02/26AAstros72-125
04/02/26ACaimanes del Llano107-91
03/02/26AAstros92-100
30/01/26HAstros59-87
28/01/26HCaimanes del Llano109-62
10/12/25ACimarrones del Choco81-69
06/12/25HCimarrones del Choco93-85
05/12/25HCimarrones del Choco85-61

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nacional
Champions League Americas 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
AwayWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game85.479.789.8
Allowed / game75.771.079.2
Point differential+9.7+8.7+10.5
Avg total161.1150.7169.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+57%67%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (3)100% (1)100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Paisas
Champions League Americas 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL43%
HomeWLWL50%
AwayLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %43%50%33%
Points / game90.190.090.3
Allowed / game91.080.2105.3
Point differential-0.9+9.8-15.0
Avg total181.1170.2195.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%50%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Nacional770100%85.475.7+9.7
2 Astros86275%110.076.1+33.9
3 Boca Juniors86275%83.572.4+11.1
4 Franca96367%97.183.7+13.4
5 Minas95456%86.882.6+4.2
6 Flamengo84450%82.183.0-0.9
7 Instituto de Cordoba84450%81.086.1-5.1
8 Paisas73443%90.191.0-0.9
9 Obras Sanitarias61517%74.883.8-9.0
10 U. De Concepcion61517%76.291.5-15.3
11 Aguada61517%70.789.8-19.2
12 Caimanes del Llano6060%72.7118.0-45.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Nacional2222302296
Paisas1719172275
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.