NC State faces East Tennessee St on 6 November 2026 in an NCAA matchup, with the model favouring the Wolfpack at 89% because of their 1-0 record, 83.0 points per game and 64.0 allowed, placing them 127th in the league, while the Buccaneers sit 0-1, 65.0 points per game and 75.0 allowed, 284th; NC State's lone home game was a 83-64 win over Campbell, and they have a 2-3 record over their last five games, whereas East Tennessee's last five also read 2-3 with a recent 65-75 loss to Arizona State; the teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history exists; Pythia projects an 84-70 score, 154.5 total points, and a 40% chance that NC State will cover the home line of -16.5, with a 55% probability of the over on the 152.5 total, and a 2% chance of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
NC State winWon
88.6%fair 1.13
Best odds1.05
Implied91.4%
Edge-2.9pp
East Tennessee St winLost
11.4%fair 8.76
Best odds14.00
Implied8.6%
Edge+2.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (NC State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 147.5Actual: Under 147.5
Over 147.5
66.5%
@ 1.47+3.0pp
Under 147.5
33.5%
@ 2.60-3.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.47
Over/Under 152.5 · main lineActual: Under 152.5
Over 152.5
54.6%
@ 1.88+4.0pp
Under 152.5
45.4%
@ 1.94-4.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Bet365
1.87
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.94
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.91
Marathon Be
1.89
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 157.5Actual: Under 157.5
Over 157.5
42.4%
@ 2.55+4.9pp
Under 157.5
57.6%
@ 1.50-4.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
NC State total 80Actual: NC State under 80
Over 80
67.0%
Under 80
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NC State total 84 · main lineActual: NC State under 84
Over 84
50.8%
@ 1.85+0.8pp
Under 84
49.2%
@ 1.85-0.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
NC State total 88Actual: NC State under 88
Over 88
34.4%
Under 88
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Tennessee St total 64Actual: East Tennessee St under 64
Over 64
74.0%
Under 64
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Tennessee St total 68 · main lineActual: East Tennessee St under 68
Over 68
59.1%
@ 1.85+9.1pp
Under 68
40.9%
@ 1.85-9.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
East Tennessee St total 72Actual: East Tennessee St under 72
Over 72
42.7%
Under 72
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread NC State -20.5Actual: East Tennessee St +20.5
NC S -20.5
27.4%
@ 2.55-10.1pp
EAST +20.5
72.6%
@ 1.50+10.1pp
Best 5 market prices
NC S
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.40
EAST
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
Spread NC State -17.5 · main lineActual: East Tennessee St +17.5
NC S -17.5
36.9%
@ 2.00-13.2pp
EAST +17.5
63.1%
@ 1.93+13.2pp
Best 5 market prices
NC S
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.85
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
EAST
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Spread NC State -14.5Actual: East Tennessee St +14.5
NC S -14.5
47.3%
@ 1.65-11.3pp
EAST +14.5
52.7%
@ 2.30+11.3pp
Best 5 market prices
NC S
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.64
Pinnacle
1.62
EAST
Pinnacle
2.30
Bet365
2.12
Betano
2.10
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
NC StateEast Tennessee St
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (NC State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: NC State win
NC S win
no forecast
@ 1.21
EAST win
no forecast
@ 4.40
2nd half Spread NC State -7.5 · main lineActual: NC State -7.5
NC S -7.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
EAST +7.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half Over/Under 80.5 · main lineActual: Under 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: NC State (regulation)
NC S
no forecast
@ 1.24
Draw
no forecast
@ 22.00
EAST
no forecast
@ 4.40
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
East Tennessee St +20.5
72.6%
1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+10.1pp
Won
East Tennessee St +21.5
75.4%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Won
East Tennessee St +22.5
78.0%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Won
East Tennessee St +23.5
80.5%
1.30
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
East Tennessee St +20
71.7%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Won
East Tennessee St +21
74.7%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Won
East Tennessee St +23
80.0%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Won
East Tennessee St +22
77.4%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Won
East Tennessee St over 63.5
74.9%
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
-
+8.4pp
Lost
East Tennessee St over 64.5
71.6%
1.44
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Lost
East Tennessee St +24
82.3%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
East Tennessee St +24.5
82.7%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Won
East Tennessee St over 62.5
78.0%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
East Tennessee St over 60.5
83.4%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
East Tennessee St over 58.5
87.9%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
East Tennessee St over 54.5
94.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
East Tennessee St over 61.5
80.8%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
NC State under 94.5
85.1%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
East Tennessee St over 52.5
96.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
NC State under 101.5
95.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
East Tennessee St over 59.5
85.8%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
East Tennessee St over 56.5
91.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
NC State under 104.5
97.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
East Tennessee St over 51.5
96.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
East Tennessee St over 53.5
95.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
East Tennessee St over 55.5
92.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
East Tennessee St over 50.5
97.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
East Tennessee St over 57.5
89.8%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
NC State under 103.5
97.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
NC State under 99.5
93.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Over 144
74.4%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Lost
Over 143.5
74.9%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Lost
Over 126.5
95.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
NC State under 97.5
91.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Over 146
70.2%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Lost
Over 131.5
92.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Over 141.5
78.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Lost
Over 145.5
70.8%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Lost
NC State under 89.5
70.5%
1.35
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
NC State under 93.5
82.7%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Over 145
72.3%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Lost
NC State under 95.5
87.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
NC State under 91.5
77.1%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Over 144.5
72.9%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Lost
NC State over 75.5
80.9%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Over 136.5
86.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
NC State over 77.5
75.0%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Lost
NC State (regulation)
87.0%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Marathon Bet
1.03
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
NC State +3.5
92.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
NC State over 76.5
78.1%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Under 176.5
91.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
NC State -1.5
87.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
NC State win
88.6%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Marathon Bet
1.03
WilliamHill
1.03
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.02
-2.9pp
Won
Under 171.5
85.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Won
East Tennessee St under 80.5
84.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
NC State -6.5
74.6%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-6.0pp
Won
Under 166.5
77.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Won
East Tennessee St under 78.5
79.1%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-7.5pp
Won
East Tennessee St under 77.5
76.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-8.1pp
Won
East Tennessee St under 76.5
73.2%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-8.3pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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