PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
The Nevada Wolf Pack host Idaho Vandals on 18 November 2026 in the NCAA, with Nevada the clear favourite as the Pythia model rates them at 85% versus Idaho's 15%. Nevada's season record of 2-1, 81.7 points per game and 73.3 allowed per game, combined with a perfect 2-0 home record and 91.0 points per game at home, shows a solid offensive and defensive balance, while Idaho's 2-1 record, 90.7 points per game and 67.7 allowed per game, coupled with a 0-1 road record and 67.0 points per game on the road, indicates a more volatile performance. In the last five games each team has won three and lost two, with Nevada's recent results including a narrow 96-95 home win over St. Marys (CA) and a decisive 86-49 victory over Robert Morris, and Idaho's recent results featuring a 108-69 home win over Lincoln University (CA) and a 97-56 home win over George Fox. The Pythia model projects a 81-69 score, 149.6 total points, and an 85% chance that Nevada will cover the home spread, with a 3% overtime probability. The projected total of 149.6 points sits just below the main total line, giving a modest over probability. The game will hinge on whether Idaho can replicate its high-scoring road outing against a Nevada team that has already proven dominant at home.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 81.7 | 73.3 | 155.0 | +8.3 | 67% |
| Season at home (2) | 91.0 | 72.0 | 163.0 | +19.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 63.0 | 76.0 | 139.0 | -13.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 77.2 | 71.1 | 148.3 | +6.1 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 79.0 | 75.8 | 154.8 | +3.2 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (7) | 72.4 | 76.9 | 149.3 | -4.4 | 43% |
| vs Similar (14) | 77.9 | 74.3 | 152.1 | +3.6 | 64% |
| vs Weaker (9) | 76.9 | 60.9 | 137.8 | +16.0 | 89% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 90.7 | 67.7 | 158.3 | +23.0 | 67% |
| Season at home (2) | 102.5 | 62.5 | 165.0 | +40.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 67.0 | 78.0 | 145.0 | -11.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 77.5 | 69.1 | 146.6 | +8.4 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 79.2 | 69.4 | 148.6 | +9.8 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 47.0 | 78.0 | 125.0 | -31.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar (12) | 73.7 | 76.4 | 150.1 | -2.8 | 33% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (16) | 81.8 | 70.1 | 151.9 | +11.7 | 75% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 33.1 | 32.5 | 65.6 | +0.6 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 35.4 | 28.8 | 64.2 | +6.6 | 75% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 30.5 | 36.6 | 67.1 | -6.1 | 21% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 33.2 | 32.0 | 65.2 | +1.2 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 34.6 | 35.6 | 70.2 | -1.0 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (7) | 31.0 | 34.6 | 65.6 | -3.6 | 14% | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 33.8 | 34.6 | 68.4 | -0.9 | 64% | - |
| vs Weaker (9) | 33.7 | 27.4 | 61.1 | +6.2 | 56% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.1 | 32.7 | 68.8 | +3.4 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 at home (13) | 40.0 | 32.5 | 72.5 | +7.5 | 62% | - |
| Last 30 away (17) | 33.1 | 32.9 | 66.0 | +0.2 | 47% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.3 | 31.5 | 67.8 | +4.8 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 38.0 | 34.2 | 72.2 | +3.8 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 24.0 | 48.0 | 72.0 | -24.0 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 31.1 | 36.2 | 67.2 | -5.1 | 33% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (16) | 40.1 | 29.8 | 69.9 | +10.4 | 69% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | A | UC Santa Barbara | 63-76 |
| 08/11/26 | H | St. Marys (CA) | 96-95 OT |
| 03/11/26 | H | Robert Morris | 86-49 |
| 14/03/26 | A | Utah State | 66-79 |
| 12/03/26 | A | Grand Canyon | 84-80 |
| 11/03/26 | H | Air Force | 80-45 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Air Force | 74-59 |
| 04/03/26 | A | Wyoming | 73-83 |
| 01/03/26 | A | UNLV | 83-85 OT |
| 25/02/26 | H | New Mexico | 67-60 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/26 | H | Lincoln University (CA) | 108-69 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Colorado State | 67-78 |
| 03/11/26 | H | George Fox | 97-56 |
| 20/03/26 | A | Houston | 47-78 |
| 12/03/26 | A | Montana | 77-66 |
| 11/03/26 | A | East. Washington | 81-68 |
| 09/03/26 | A | Montana State | 78-74 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Sacramento State | 68-45 |
| 03/03/26 | A | East. Washington | 85-81 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Northern Colorado | 67-76 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWL | 67% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 81.7 | 91.0 | 63.0 |
| Allowed / game | 73.3 | 72.0 | 76.0 |
| Point differential | +8.3 | +19.0 | -13.0 |
| Avg total | 155.0 | 163.0 | 139.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLW | 67% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 90.7 | 102.5 | 67.0 |
| Allowed / game | 67.7 | 62.5 | 78.0 |
| Point differential | +23.0 | +40.0 | -11.0 |
| Avg total | 158.3 | 165.0 | 145.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boise State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 114.3 | 71.0 | +43.3 |
| 2 |  Utah State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 100.7 | 66.7 | +34.0 |
| 3 |  New Mexico | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 96.0 | 64.7 | +31.3 |
| 4 |  Grand Canyon | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 100.3 | 77.0 | +23.3 |
| 5 |  San Diego State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 73.0 | +16.0 |
| 6 |  Colorado State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 83.0 | 70.7 | +12.3 |
| 7 |  UNLV | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 88.5 | 78.0 | +10.5 |
| 8 |  Air Force | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 93.5 | 83.8 | +9.8 |
| 9 |  Wyoming | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 83.7 | 62.0 | +21.7 |
| 10 | Nevada | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.7 | 73.3 | +8.3 |
| 11 |  Fresno State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 82.7 | 84.0 | -1.3 |
| 12 |  San Jose State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 83.0 | 81.7 | +1.3 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Northern Colorado | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 94.0 | 68.7 | +25.3 |
| 2 | Idaho | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 90.7 | 67.7 | +23.0 |
| 3 |  Sacramento State | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 83.5 | 78.5 | +5.0 |
| 4 |  Montana | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.3 | 63.3 | +14.0 |
| 5 |  Portland State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 80.7 | 75.0 | +5.7 |
| 6 |  Montana State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.0 | 80.0 | -4.0 |
| 7 |  East. Washington | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 73.3 | 88.7 | -15.3 |
| 8 |  Northern Arizona | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 69.5 | 87.8 | -18.2 |
| 9 |  Weber State | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 72.7 | 96.0 | -23.3 |
| 10 |  Idaho State | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 67.3 | 92.0 | -24.7 |
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