PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

UC Santa Barbara vs Nevada Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 12 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 02:00
Projected 77-70
Projected total 147.3
Final 76-63
40-24 36-39
Position#53
Record2-0
FormLLLWW
Points / game87.5
Allowed / game61.0
UC Santa Barbara 🏆
USA
Vs
75%
25%
■ UC S 75%■ NEVA 25%
Pythia win probability
Nevada
USA
Position#168
Record2-0
FormWWLWW
Points / game91.0
Allowed / game72.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

UC Santa Barbara hosts Nevada on 11 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Gauchos the clear favourite, rating them 75% to win because of their undefeated 2-0 record and a points-per-game advantage of 87.5 to 61.0. Both teams have begun the season 2-0, Nevada scoring 91.0 points per game while allowing 72.0, and UC Santa Barbara averaging 87.5 to 61.0; the Gauchos have won both home games, 2-0, and have a 2-3 record in their last five, with wins over Oakland 90-67 and San Francisco State 85-55 and a loss to UC Davis 73-79. The Wolf Pack's last five are 4-1, including a 96-95 win over St. Marys (CA) and an 86-49 victory over Robert Morris, but they fell 66-79 to Utah State. In their only prior meeting, Nevada defeated UC Santa Barbara 77-64 on 22 November 2025. Pythia projects a 77-70 score, a total of 147.3, with a 1.5-point spread favouring UC Santa Barbara and a 55% chance of the over at 145.0, while the Gauchos have a 77% probability of covering the spread and a 4% chance of overtime. The game will hinge on UC Santa Barbara's defensive edge and Nevada's recent offensive bursts.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

UC Santa Barbara winWon
75.1%fair 1.33
Best odds1.98
Implied48.6%
Edge+26.5pp
Nevada winLost
24.9%fair 4.01
Best odds1.87
Implied51.4%
Edge-26.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 07:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

UC Santa BarbaraUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UC Riverside
#334
W
76-68
76
68
+8
A13/02
NCAA
Cal Poly
#266
L
79-89
79
89
-10
A15/02
NCAA
CS Northridge
#132
L
83-85 OT
83
85
-2
H20/02
NCAA
Hawaii
#44
L
75-78 OT
75
78
-3
A22/02
NCAA
UC Riverside
#334
W
70-59
70
59
+11
H27/02
NCAA
UC Irvine
#60
L
60-64
60
64
-4
A01/03
NCAA
UC San Diego
#64
L
63-64
63
64
-1
H08/03
NCAA
UC Davis
#139
L
73-79
73
79
-6
A12/03
NCAA
San Francisco State
#415
W
85-55
85
55
+30
H03/11
NCAA
Oakland
#396
W
90-67
90
67
+23
H07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
29-35
47-33
46-37
33-52
27-32
49-44
32-30
36-38
39-27
31-32
23-32
37-32
29-31
34-33
31-34
42-45
41-26
44-29
38-27
52-40
146.2Avg total
75.4Scored
70.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)87.561.0148.5+26.5100%
Season at home (2)87.561.0148.5+26.5100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)75.470.8146.2+4.640%
Last 5 (5)74.265.8140.0+8.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)69.870.2140.0-0.440%
vs Similar (11)73.876.4150.2-2.527%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)81.869.1150.8+12.785%
This opponent (Nevada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NevadaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah State
#20
W
80-77
80
77
+3
H22/02
NCAA
New Mexico
#50
W
67-60
67
60
+7
H25/02
NCAA
UNLV
#192
L
83-85 OT
83
85
-2
A01/03
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
L
73-83
73
83
-10
A04/03
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
74-59
74
59
+15
H08/03
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
80-45
80
45
+35
H11/03
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
W
84-80
84
80
+4
A12/03
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
66-79
66
79
-13
A14/03
NCAA
Robert Morris
#402
W
86-49
86
49
+37
H03/11
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#149
W
96-95 OT
96
95
+1
H08/11
NCAA
1H
2H
38-40
42-37
23-23
44-37
37-35
37-39
28-49
45-34
32-25
42-34
39-10
41-35
34-40
50-40
32-39
34-40
41-24
45-25
42-35
37-44
150.1Avg total
78.9Scored
71.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)91.072.0163.0+19.0100%
Season at home (2)91.072.0163.0+19.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)78.971.2150.1+7.770%
Last 5 (5)82.469.6152.0+12.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)74.077.0151.0-3.050%
vs Similar (15)77.174.9151.9+2.260%
vs Weaker (9)76.960.9137.8+16.089%
This opponent (UC Santa Barbara) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 141.5Actual: Under 141.5
Over 141.5
63.4%
@ 1.50+2.1pp
Under 141.5
36.6%
@ 2.37-2.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.37
Over/Under 146.5 · main lineActual: Under 146.5
Over 146.5
51.4%
@ 1.91+1.1pp
Under 146.5
48.6%
@ 1.92-1.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Bet365
1.90
BetVictor
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 151.5Actual: Under 151.5
Over 151.5
39.4%
@ 2.50+2.4pp
Under 151.5
60.6%
@ 1.47-2.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.50
Under
Betano
1.47

📊 3. Team Totals

UC Santa Barbara total 67.5Actual: UC Santa Barbara over 67.5
Over 67.5
no forecast
@ 1.31
Under 67.5
no forecast
@ 2.95
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Under
Betano
2.95
UC Santa Barbara total 72 · main lineActual: UC Santa Barbara over 72
Over 72
71.5%
@ 1.85+21.3pp
Under 72
28.5%
@ 1.86-21.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
UC Santa Barbara total 76Push
Over 76
56.1%
Under 76
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevada total 69Actual: Nevada under 69
Over 69
52.8%
Under 69
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevada total 73 · main lineActual: Nevada under 73
Over 73
36.9%
@ 1.85-13.1pp
Under 73
63.1%
@ 1.85+13.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Nevada total 77Actual: Nevada under 77
Over 77
23.3%
Under 77
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread UC Santa Barbara -2Actual: UC Santa Barbara -2
UC S -2
71.6%
@ 2.22+28.5pp
NEVA +2
28.4%
@ 1.68-28.5pp
Best 5 market prices
UC S
Pinnacle
2.22
Bet365
2.05
NEVA
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.68
Spread UC Santa Barbara +1 · main lineActual: UC Santa Barbara +1
UC S +1
76.7%
@ 1.94+27.5pp
NEVA -1
23.3%
@ 1.90-27.5pp
Best 5 market prices
UC S
Pinnacle
1.94
Marathon Be
1.87
Bet365
1.83
NEVA
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.84
Spread UC Santa Barbara +4Actual: UC Santa Barbara +4
UC S +4
84.2%
@ 1.54+23.7pp
NEVA -4
15.8%
@ 2.35-23.7pp
Best 5 market prices
UC S
Bet365
1.54
NEVA
Bet365
2.35

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +2.4+2.41st half: +2.6+2.62nd half2nd half: +2.7+2.72nd half: +5.2+5.2
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +2.4+2.41st half: +2.6+2.62nd half2nd half: +2.7+2.72nd half: +5.2+5.2
UC Santa BarbaraNevada
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
UC Santa BarbaraLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UC Riverside
#334
L
29-35
29
35
-6
A13/02
NCAA
Cal Poly
#266
W
46-37
46
37
+9
A15/02
NCAA
CS Northridge
#132
L
27-32
27
32
-5
H20/02
NCAA
Hawaii
#44
W
32-30
32
30
+2
A22/02
NCAA
UC Riverside
#334
W
39-27
39
27
+12
H27/02
NCAA
UC Irvine
#60
L
23-32
23
32
-9
A01/03
NCAA
UC San Diego
#64
L
29-31
29
31
-2
H08/03
NCAA
UC Davis
#139
L
31-34
31
34
-3
A12/03
NCAA
San Francisco State
#415
W
41-26
41
26
+15
H03/11
NCAA
Oakland
#396
W
38-27
38
27
+11
H07/11
NCAA
64.6Avg total
33.5Scored
31.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 68.5
Last 30 (30)35.531.867.3+3.760%27%
Last 30 at home (15)39.029.368.3+9.780%20%
Last 30 away (15)32.134.366.4-2.340%33%
Last 10 (10)33.531.164.6+2.450%10%
Last 5 (5)32.430.062.4+2.440%0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)28.829.658.4-0.860%0%
vs Similar (11)33.234.567.6-1.336%27%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)39.730.870.5+8.877%38%
This opponent (Nevada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NevadaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah State
#20
L
38-40
38
40
-2
H22/02
NCAA
New Mexico
#50
D
23-23
23
23
+0
H25/02
NCAA
UNLV
#192
W
37-35
37
35
+2
A01/03
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
L
28-49
28
49
-21
A04/03
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
32-25
32
25
+7
H08/03
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
39-10
39
10
+29
H11/03
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
L
34-40
34
40
-6
A12/03
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
32-39
32
39
-7
A14/03
NCAA
Robert Morris
#402
W
41-24
41
24
+17
H03/11
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#149
W
42-35
42
35
+7
H08/11
NCAA
66.6Avg total
34.6Scored
32.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 68.5
Last 30 (30)33.232.365.5+1.050%47%
Last 30 at home (17)34.929.164.1+5.871%35%
Last 30 away (13)31.036.467.4-5.423%62%
Last 10 (10)34.632.066.6+2.650%60%
Last 5 (5)37.629.667.2+8.060%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)32.233.765.8-1.517%67%
vs Similar (15)33.434.668.0-1.260%53%
vs Weaker (9)33.727.461.1+6.256%22%
This opponent (UC Santa Barbara) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: UC Santa Barbara win
UC S win
no forecast
@ 1.95
NEVA win
no forecast
@ 1.90
1st half Spread UC Santa Barbara 0 · main lineActual: UC Santa Barbara 0
UC S 0
no forecast
@ 1.88
NEVA 0
no forecast
@ 1.82
1st half Over/Under 68.5 · main lineActual: Under 68.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.95
Under
no forecast
@ 2.10
UC Santa Barbara 1st half total 34 · main lineActual: UC Santa Barbara over 34
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
Nevada 1st half total 34 · main lineActual: Nevada under 34
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Over/Under 67Actual: Under 67
Over
no forecast
@ 1.72
Under
no forecast
@ 2.11
1st half Over/Under 70Actual: Under 70
Over
no forecast
@ 2.17
Under
no forecast
@ 1.69
1st half Spread UC Santa Barbara -1Actual: UC Santa Barbara -1
UC S -1
no forecast
@ 2.12
NEVA +1
no forecast
@ 1.74
1st half Spread UC Santa Barbara +1Actual: UC Santa Barbara +1
UC S +1
no forecast
@ 1.79
NEVA -1
no forecast
@ 2.08
1st half Over/Under 65.5Actual: Under 65.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.42
Under
no forecast
@ 2.62
1st half Over/Under 71.5Actual: Under 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.10
Under
no forecast
@ 1.65
1st half Spread UC Santa Barbara -2Actual: UC Santa Barbara -2
UC S -2
no forecast
@ 2.26
NEVA +2
no forecast
@ 1.65
1st half Spread UC Santa Barbara +2Actual: UC Santa Barbara +2
UC S +2
no forecast
@ 1.63
NEVA -2
no forecast
@ 2.29
1st half Over/Under 73.5Actual: Under 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.50
Under
no forecast
@ 1.45
1st half Spread UC Santa Barbara -3.5Actual: UC Santa Barbara -3.5
UC S -3.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
NEVA +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: UC Santa Barbara (regulation)
UC S
no forecast
@ 2.02
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
NEVA
no forecast
@ 1.91

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
UC S win + total 146.5
🔒 Pro
NEVA win + total 146.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: UC S leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
UC Santa Barbara -271.6%2.13
Pinnacle
2.22
Bet365
2.05		---+28.5ppWon
UC Santa Barbara -174.5%2.01
Pinnacle
2.07
Bet365
1.95		---+28.1ppWon
UC Santa Barbara (regulation)72.6%2.01
Marathon Bet
2.03
Betano
2.00		---+28.0ppWon
UC Santa Barbara -1.572.7%2.04
Pinnacle
2.13
Betano
2.05
BetVictor
1.93		--+27.7ppWon
UC Santa Barbara +176.7%1.88
Pinnacle
1.94
Marathon Bet
1.87
Bet365
1.83		--+27.5ppWon
UC Santa Barbara win75.1%1.94
Pinnacle
1.98
Bet365
1.97
BetVictor
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.95
Betano
1.95		+26.5ppWon
UC Santa Barbara +279.6%1.76
Pinnacle
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.75
Bet365
1.74		--+26.3ppWon
UC Santa Barbara +1.577.2%1.82
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Bet
1.82
Betano
1.82
BetVictor
1.80
1xBet
1.80		+26.3ppWon
UC Santa Barbara +2.580.2%1.70
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.70
Marathon Bet
1.69
Bet365
1.68		-+24.5ppWon
UC Santa Barbara +381.9%1.64
Pinnacle
1.66
Bet365
1.62		---+24.2ppWon
UC Santa Barbara +484.2%1.54
Bet365
1.54		----+23.7ppWon
UC Santa Barbara +4.584.5%1.51
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50		---+23.1ppWon
UC Santa Barbara +586.3%1.47
Bet365
1.47		----+22.8ppWon
UC Santa Barbara +3.582.3%1.59
Pinnacle
1.61
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.57		--+22.8ppWon
UC Santa Barbara +5.586.5%1.43
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42		---+21.9ppWon
UC Santa Barbara +688.1%1.40
Bet365
1.40		----+21.9ppWon
UC Santa Barbara over 7271.5%1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84		---+21.3ppWon
UC Santa Barbara over 70.575.6%1.62
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.53		---+20.8ppWon
UC Santa Barbara +6.588.3%1.37
Bet365
1.37
Betano
1.36		---+20.7ppWon
UC Santa Barbara +7.589.9%1.31
Betano
1.31		----+19.6ppWon
UC Santa Barbara +8.591.3%1.26
Betano
1.26		----+18.4ppWon
UC Santa Barbara over 71.572.4%1.77
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.82
Pinnacle
1.74
Betano
1.67		-+18.3ppWon
Nevada under 75.571.3%1.57
Betano
1.57		----+13.5ppWon
Nevada under 76.574.4%1.47
Betano
1.47		----+12.9ppWon
Nevada under 77.577.4%1.40
Betano
1.40		----+12.6ppWon
Nevada under 78.580.1%1.33
Betano
1.33		----+11.9ppWon
Overtime: no95.8%1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03		---+6.0pp-
Over 137.572.2%1.37
Betano
1.37		----+5.0ppWon
Over 138.570.0%1.36
Betano
1.36		----+2.3ppWon
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
UC Santa Barbara wins
1
Nevada wins
DateGameScore
22/11/25Nevada v UC Santa Barbara77-64
UC Santa Barbaralast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HOakland90-67
03/11/26HSan Francisco State85-55
12/03/26AUC Davis73-79
08/03/26HUC San Diego63-64
01/03/26AUC Irvine60-64
27/02/26HUC Riverside70-59
22/02/26AHawaii75-78 OT
20/02/26HCS Northridge83-85 OT
15/02/26ACal Poly79-89
13/02/26AUC Riverside76-68
Nevadalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26HSt. Marys (CA)96-95 OT
03/11/26HRobert Morris86-49
14/03/26AUtah State66-79
12/03/26AGrand Canyon84-80
11/03/26HAir Force80-45
08/03/26HAir Force74-59
04/03/26AWyoming73-83
01/03/26AUNLV83-85 OT
25/02/26HNew Mexico67-60
22/02/26HUtah State80-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

UC Santa Barbara
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game87.587.5-
Allowed / game61.061.0-
Point differential+26.5+26.5-
Avg total148.5148.5-
Over 146.550%50%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Nevada
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game91.091.0-
Allowed / game72.072.0-
Point differential+19.0+19.0-
Avg total163.0163.0-
Over 146.550%50%-
Win by 10+50%50%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %50%50%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big West conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UC Riverside220100%87.053.5+33.5
2 UC Santa Barbara220100%87.561.0+26.5
3 CSU Bakersfield220100%92.067.0+25.0
4 UC San Diego220100%90.570.0+20.5
5 UC Irvine220100%91.572.5+19.0
6 Hawaii43175%81.863.0+18.8
7 UC Davis32167%73.766.7+7.0
8 Cal Poly21150%81.083.0-2.0
9 CS Fullerton21150%82.593.5-11.0
10 Long Beach State2020%66.574.5-8.0
11 CS Northridge2020%72.587.0-14.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Mountain West conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boise State220100%116.067.0+49.0
2 Utah State330100%100.766.7+34.0
3 New Mexico330100%96.064.7+31.3
4 Grand Canyon220100%101.080.0+21.0
5 Nevada220100%91.072.0+19.0
6 San Diego State330100%89.073.0+16.0
7 Colorado State220100%81.070.5+10.5
8 UNLV220100%88.578.0+10.5
9 Air Force43175%93.583.8+9.8
10 Wyoming32167%83.762.0+21.7
11 Fresno State32167%82.784.0-1.3
12 San Jose State21150%87.082.5+4.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
UC Santa Barbara403676
Nevada243963
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.