PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Nevada vs St. Marys (CA) Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 08 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 21:30
Projected 76-69
Projected total 144.9
Final 96-95 (OT)
42-35 37-44 17-16
Position#84
Record1-0
FormWWWLW
Points / game86.0
Allowed / game49.0
Nevada 🏆
USA
Vs
76%
24%
■ NEVA 76%■ ST. 24%
Pythia win probability
St. Marys (CA)
USA
Position#147
Record2-0
FormWLLWW
Points / game97.5
Allowed / game74.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

The NCAA matchup on 8 November 2026 pits Nevada against St. Marys (CA), with the Pythia model naming Nevada the clear favourite, assigning a 76% chance of victory largely because of their 1-0 season record, 86.0 points per game and only 49.0 allowed, placing them 40th in the league. St. Marys (CA) enter with a perfect 2-0 record, 97.5 points per game and 74.5 allowed, ranked 97th, and have won their last five games 3-2, including recent home wins over North Dakota St 105-64 and Illinois State 90-85. Nevada's sole loss came in a 66-79 defeat to Utah State, while St. Marys (CA) suffered a 50-63 loss to Texas A&M. The teams have met once before, with St. Marys (CA) winning 68-63 on 21 December 2019. Pythia projects a 76-69 score, giving Nevada a 76% probability of winning and St. Marys (CA) a 24% chance, with a projected total of 144.9 points and a 4% chance of overtime. The model sees Nevada covering the spread with a 76% probability, and the over on the total line is likely with a 76% probability. The game will be decided by Nevada's strong home performance and St. Marys (CA)'s recent offensive output.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nevada winWon
75.8%fair 1.32
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
St. Marys (CA) winLost
24.2%fair 4.13
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 07 Nov 07:12 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NevadaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Jose State
#349
L
71-87
71
87
-16
A18/02
NCAA
Utah State
#20
W
80-77
80
77
+3
H22/02
NCAA
New Mexico
#50
W
67-60
67
60
+7
H25/02
NCAA
UNLV
#192
L
83-85 OT
83
85
-2
A01/03
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
L
73-83
73
83
-10
A04/03
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
74-59
74
59
+15
H08/03
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
80-45
80
45
+35
H11/03
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
W
84-80
84
80
+4
A12/03
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
66-79
66
79
-13
A14/03
NCAA
Robert Morris
#396
W
86-49
86
49
+37
H03/11
NCAA
1H
2H
32-47
39-40
38-40
42-37
23-23
44-37
37-35
37-39
28-49
45-34
32-25
42-34
39-10
41-35
34-40
50-40
32-39
34-40
41-24
45-25
146.8Avg total
76.4Scored
70.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)86.049.0135.0+37.0100%
Season at home (1)86.049.0135.0+37.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)76.470.4146.8+6.060%
Last 5 (5)78.062.4140.4+15.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)69.673.4143.0-3.840%
vs Similar ◀ (16)77.174.2151.2+2.962%
vs Weaker (9)76.960.9137.8+16.089%
This opponent (St. Marys (CA)) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
St. Marys (CA)USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pepperdine
#347
W
88-60
88
60
+28
H12/02
NCAA
Pacific
#165
W
72-61
72
61
+11
A15/02
NCAA
Seattle
#108
W
72-70
72
70
+2
A19/02
NCAA
Washington State
#291
W
83-67
83
67
+16
A22/02
NCAA
Santa Clara
#39
W
86-67
86
67
+19
H26/02
NCAA
Gonzaga
#9
W
70-59
70
59
+11
H01/03
NCAA
Santa Clara
#39
L
71-76
71
76
-5
H10/03
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
L
50-63
50
63
-13
H19/03
NCAA
Illinois State
#267
W
90-85 OT
90
85
+5
H03/11
NCAA
North Dakota St
#317
W
105-64
105
64
+41
H05/11
NCAA
1H
2H
48-29
40-31
28-30
44-31
35-28
37-42
40-39
43-28
42-36
44-31
29-36
41-23
35-32
36-44
26-37
24-26
33-39
44-38
45-26
60-38
145.9Avg total
78.7Scored
67.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)97.574.5172.0+23.0100%
Season at home (2)97.574.5172.0+23.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)78.767.2145.9+11.580%
Last 5 (5)77.269.4146.6+7.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)67.566.0133.5+1.550%
vs Similar ◀ (4)70.575.2145.8-4.825%
vs Weaker (23)78.665.1143.7+13.591%
This opponent (Nevada) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 147Actual: Over 147
Over 147
44.3%
Under 147
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 152Actual: Over 152
Over 152
32.5%
Under 152
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 157Actual: Over 157
Over 157
22.4%
Under 157
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Nevada total 84.5Actual: Nevada over 84.5
Over 84.5
21.0%
Under 84.5
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevada total 88.5Actual: Nevada over 88.5
Over 88.5
11.4%
Under 88.5
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevada total 92.5Actual: Nevada over 92.5
Over 92.5
5.5%
Under 92.5
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St. Marys (CA) total 59.5Actual: St. Marys (CA) over 59.5
Over 59.5
80.9%
Under 59.5
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St. Marys (CA) total 63.5Actual: St. Marys (CA) over 63.5
Over 63.5
68.4%
Under 63.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St. Marys (CA) total 67.5Actual: St. Marys (CA) over 67.5
Over 67.5
53.4%
Under 67.5
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Nevada -3Actual: St. Marys (CA) +3
NEVA -3
68.7%
ST. +3
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
NEVA
No market prices yet.
ST.
No market prices yet.
Spread Nevada 0Actual: Nevada 0
NEVA 0
75.8%
ST. 0
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
NEVA
No market prices yet.
ST.
No market prices yet.
Spread Nevada +3Actual: Nevada +3
NEVA +3
82.5%
ST. -3
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
NEVA
No market prices yet.
ST.
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +0.4+0.41st half: +2.9+2.92nd half2nd half: +5.8+5.82nd half: +8.1+8.1
-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +0.4+0.41st half: +2.9+2.92nd half2nd half: +5.8+5.82nd half: +8.1+8.1
NevadaSt. Marys (CA)
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
NevadaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Jose State
#349
L
32-47
32
47
-15
A18/02
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
38-40
38
40
-2
H22/02
NCAA
New Mexico
#50
D
23-23
23
23
+0
H25/02
NCAA
UNLV
#192
W
37-35
37
35
+2
A01/03
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
L
28-49
28
49
-21
A04/03
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
32-25
32
25
+7
H08/03
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
39-10
39
10
+29
H11/03
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
L
34-40
34
40
-6
A12/03
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
32-39
32
39
-7
A14/03
NCAA
Robert Morris
#396
W
41-24
41
24
+17
H03/11
NCAA
66.8Avg total
33.6Scored
33.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.932.064.9+0.950%-
Last 30 at home (17)34.428.763.1+5.671%-
Last 30 away (13)31.036.467.4-5.423%-
Last 10 (10)33.633.266.8+0.440%-
Last 5 (5)35.627.663.2+8.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)30.233.463.6-3.20%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)33.334.267.5-0.962%-
vs Weaker (9)33.727.461.1+6.256%-
This opponent (St. Marys (CA)) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
St. Marys (CA)Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pepperdine
#347
W
48-29
48
29
+19
H12/02
NCAA
Pacific
#165
L
28-30
28
30
-2
A15/02
NCAA
Seattle
#108
W
35-28
35
28
+7
A19/02
NCAA
Washington State
#291
W
40-39
40
39
+1
A22/02
NCAA
Santa Clara
#39
W
42-36
42
36
+6
H26/02
NCAA
Gonzaga
#9
L
29-36
29
36
-7
H01/03
NCAA
Santa Clara
#39
W
35-32
35
32
+3
H10/03
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
L
26-37
26
37
-11
H19/03
NCAA
Illinois State
#267
L
33-39
33
39
-6
H03/11
NCAA
North Dakota St
#317
W
45-26
45
26
+19
H05/11
NCAA
69.3Avg total
36.1Scored
33.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.231.767.9+4.470%-
Last 30 at home (17)38.030.968.9+7.176%-
Last 30 away (13)33.832.866.5+1.062%-
Last 10 (10)36.133.269.3+2.960%-
Last 5 (5)33.634.067.6-0.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)33.535.068.5-1.550%-
vs Similar ◀ (4)34.037.871.8-3.850%-
vs Weaker (23)36.630.767.3+6.074%-
This opponent (Nevada) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Nevada wins
1
St. Marys (CA) wins
DateGameScore
22/12/19St. Marys (CA) v Nevada68-63
Nevadalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/11/26HRobert Morris86-49
14/03/26AUtah State66-79
12/03/26AGrand Canyon84-80
11/03/26HAir Force80-45
08/03/26HAir Force74-59
04/03/26AWyoming73-83
01/03/26AUNLV83-85 OT
25/02/26HNew Mexico67-60
22/02/26HUtah State80-77
18/02/26ASan Jose State71-87
St. Marys (CA)last 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/11/26HNorth Dakota St105-64
03/11/26HIllinois State90-85 OT
19/03/26HTexas A&M50-63
10/03/26HSanta Clara71-76
01/03/26HGonzaga70-59
26/02/26HSanta Clara86-67
22/02/26AWashington State83-67
19/02/26ASeattle72-70
15/02/26APacific72-61
12/02/26HPepperdine88-60

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nevada
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
HomeW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game86.086.0-
Allowed / game49.049.0-
Point differential+37.0+37.0-
Avg total135.0135.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
St. Marys (CA)
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game97.597.5-
Allowed / game74.574.5-
Point differential+23.0+23.0-
Avg total172.0172.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %50%50%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mountain West conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boise State220100%116.067.0+49.0
2 Wyoming220100%94.055.0+39.0
3 Nevada110100%86.049.0+37.0
4 Utah State220100%92.057.0+35.0
5 New Mexico220100%97.062.5+34.5
6 Grand Canyon220100%101.080.0+21.0
7 San Diego State220100%89.572.0+17.5
8 Colorado State220100%81.070.5+10.5
9 UNLV220100%88.578.0+10.5
10 Air Force32167%89.080.7+8.3
11 San Jose State21150%87.082.5+4.5
12 Fresno State21150%76.580.0-3.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
West Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oregon State220100%99.064.5+34.5
2 Pacific220100%82.549.5+33.0
3 St. Marys (CA)220100%97.574.5+23.0
4 Santa Clara330100%89.073.0+16.0
5 San Diego Toreros220100%87.576.0+11.5
6 San Francisco220100%77.566.0+11.5
7 Pepperdine32167%102.365.0+37.3
8 Loyola Marymount21150%98.573.0+25.5
9 Portland21150%109.089.0+20.0
10 Gonzaga21150%90.573.0+17.5
11 Seattle21150%76.067.0+9.0
12 Washington State2020%66.079.5-13.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HOTFinal
Nevada42371796
St. Marys (CA)35441695
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.