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Nevada vs South Dakota St. Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 30 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 03:00
Scheduled
Position#212
Record2-2
FormLWWLL
Points / game79.0
Allowed / game73.2
vs
Position#62
Record4-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game72.8
Allowed / game57.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Nevada v South Dakota St.
29 Dec 2026
NEVA v SOUT
upcoming
11 Dec 2024
NEVA77
SOUT63
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nevada win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
South Dakota St. win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NevadaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UNLV
#192
L
83-85 OT
83
85
-2
A01/03
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
L
73-83
73
83
-10
A04/03
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
74-59
74
59
+15
H08/03
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
80-45
80
45
+35
H11/03
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
W
84-80
84
80
+4
A12/03
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
66-79
66
79
-13
A14/03
NCAA
Robert Morris
#317
W
86-49
86
49
+37
H03/11
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#105
W
96-95 OT
96
95
+1
H08/11
NCAA
UC Santa Barbara
#41
L
63-76
63
76
-13
A12/11
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#71
L
71-73
71
73
-2
H15/11
NCAA
1H
2H
37-35
37-39
28-49
45-34
32-25
42-34
39-10
41-35
34-40
50-40
32-39
34-40
41-24
45-25
42-35
37-44
24-40
39-36
28-34
43-39
150.0Avg total
77.6Scored
72.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)79.073.2152.2+5.850%
Season at home (3)84.372.3156.7+12.067%
Season away (1)63.076.0139.0-13.00%
Last 10 (10)77.672.4150.0+5.250%
Last 5 (5)76.474.4150.8+2.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)72.276.4148.6-4.138%
vs Similar (13)77.675.0152.6+2.662%
vs Weaker (9)76.960.9137.8+16.089%
This opponent (South Dakota St.) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
South Dakota St.USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oral Roberts
#338
W
87-69
87
69
+18
A15/02
NCAA
North Dakota St
#30
L
66-74
66
74
-8
H19/02
NCAA
North Dakota
#196
W
91-83
91
83
+8
H21/02
NCAA
UMKC
#368
W
73-59
73
59
+14
A27/02
NCAA
South Dakota Coyotes
#214
L
70-75
70
75
-5
A28/02
NCAA
St. Thomas (Minn.)
#42
L
67-80
67
80
-13
A06/03
NCAA
Kansas State
#160
W
68-66
68
66
+2
A04/11
NCAA
Briar Cliff
#387
W
71-49
71
49
+22
H07/11
NCAA
Valparaiso
#162
W
81-69
81
69
+12
H12/11
NCAA
Northern Colorado
#197
W
71-46
71
46
+25
A14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
36-29
51-40
34-37
32-37
42-44
49-39
36-30
37-29
42-38
28-37
37-39
30-41
35-28
33-38
36-24
35-25
49-32
32-37
28-17
43-29
141.5Avg total
74.5Scored
67.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)72.857.5130.2+15.2100%
Season at home (2)76.059.0135.0+17.0100%
Season away (2)69.556.0125.5+13.5100%
Last 10 (10)74.567.0141.5+7.570%
Last 5 (5)71.662.0133.6+9.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)63.077.4140.4-14.40%
vs Similar (11)76.576.4152.9+0.236%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)80.467.9148.3+12.689%
This opponent (Nevada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +0.6+0.61st half: +5.7+5.72nd half2nd half: +4.7+4.72nd half: +1.8+1.8
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +0.6+0.61st half: +5.7+5.72nd half2nd half: +4.7+4.72nd half: +1.8+1.8
NevadaSouth Dakota St.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
NevadaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UNLV
#192
W
37-35
37
35
+2
A01/03
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
L
28-49
28
49
-21
A04/03
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
32-25
32
25
+7
H08/03
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
39-10
39
10
+29
H11/03
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
L
34-40
34
40
-6
A12/03
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
32-39
32
39
-7
A14/03
NCAA
Robert Morris
#317
W
41-24
41
24
+17
H03/11
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#105
W
42-35
42
35
+7
H08/11
NCAA
UC Santa Barbara
#41
L
24-40
24
40
-16
A12/11
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#71
L
28-34
28
34
-6
H15/11
NCAA
66.8Avg total
33.7Scored
33.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.832.465.1+0.447%-
Last 30 at home (16)34.828.663.4+6.169%-
Last 30 away (14)30.536.667.1-6.121%-
Last 10 (10)33.733.166.8+0.650%-
Last 5 (5)33.434.467.8-1.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)30.634.565.1-3.912%-
vs Similar (13)33.534.567.9-1.062%-
vs Weaker (9)33.727.461.1+6.256%-
This opponent (South Dakota St.) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
South Dakota St.Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oral Roberts
#338
W
36-29
36
29
+7
A15/02
NCAA
North Dakota St
#30
L
34-37
34
37
-3
H19/02
NCAA
North Dakota
#196
L
42-44
42
44
-2
H21/02
NCAA
UMKC
#368
W
36-30
36
30
+6
A27/02
NCAA
South Dakota Coyotes
#214
W
42-38
42
38
+4
A28/02
NCAA
St. Thomas (Minn.)
#42
L
37-39
37
39
-2
A06/03
NCAA
Kansas State
#160
W
35-28
35
28
+7
A04/11
NCAA
Briar Cliff
#387
W
36-24
36
24
+12
H07/11
NCAA
Valparaiso
#162
W
49-32
49
32
+17
H12/11
NCAA
Northern Colorado
#197
W
28-17
28
17
+11
A14/11
NCAA
69.3Avg total
37.5Scored
31.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.534.870.4+0.743%-
Last 30 at home (14)37.435.272.6+2.143%-
Last 30 away (16)33.934.568.4-0.644%-
Last 10 (10)37.531.869.3+5.770%-
Last 5 (5)37.028.065.0+9.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)29.435.564.9-6.10%-
vs Similar (11)35.537.572.9-2.036%-
vs Weaker ◀ (9)40.332.873.1+7.678%-
This opponent (Nevada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Nevada wins
1
South Dakota St. wins
DateGameScore
12/12/24Nevada v South Dakota St.77-63
23/11/21South Dakota St. v Nevada102-75
Nevadalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HUtah Valley State71-73
12/11/26AUC Santa Barbara63-76
08/11/26HSt. Marys (CA)96-95 OT
03/11/26HRobert Morris86-49
14/03/26AUtah State66-79
12/03/26AGrand Canyon84-80
11/03/26HAir Force80-45
08/03/26HAir Force74-59
04/03/26AWyoming73-83
01/03/26AUNLV83-85 OT
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ANorthern Colorado71-46
12/11/26HValparaiso81-69
07/11/26HBriar Cliff71-49
04/11/26AKansas State68-66
06/03/26ASt. Thomas (Minn.)67-80
28/02/26ASouth Dakota Coyotes70-75
27/02/26AUMKC73-59
21/02/26HNorth Dakota91-83
19/02/26HNorth Dakota St66-74
15/02/26AOral Roberts87-69

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nevada
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLL50%
HomeWWL67%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %50%67%0%
Points / game79.084.363.0
Allowed / game73.272.376.0
Point differential+5.8+12.0-13.0
Avg total152.2156.7139.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %25%33%0%
South Dakota St.
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game72.876.069.5
Allowed / game57.559.056.0
Point differential+15.2+17.0+13.5
Avg total130.2135.0125.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+75%100%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mountain West conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Utah State440100%105.570.5+35.0
2 Grand Canyon440100%97.270.8+26.5
3 San Diego State330100%89.073.0+16.0
4 UNLV330100%84.374.7+9.7
5 Boise State43175%104.578.8+25.8
6 New Mexico43175%93.271.0+22.2
7 Wyoming43175%81.859.8+22.0
8 Air Force43175%93.583.8+9.8
9 Colorado State43175%76.871.2+5.5
10 Fresno State43175%84.283.0+1.2
11 Nevada42250%79.073.2+5.8
12 San Jose State31233%83.081.7+1.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Summit League conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 South Dakota St.440100%72.857.5+15.2
2 Nebraska O.53260%68.277.0-8.8
3 Oral Roberts42250%75.560.8+14.8
4 St. Thomas (Minn.)52340%82.478.2+4.2
5 UMKC52340%75.477.8-2.4
6 North Dakota St62433%75.881.3-5.5
7 North Dakota41325%72.886.8-14.0
8 South Dakota Coyotes51420%84.482.8+1.6
9 Denver3030%60.371.7-11.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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