PythiaBasketballBETA
The New Orleans Pelicans will host the Golden State Warriors on 16 November 2026 in the NBA, and the Pythia model names the Warriors the favourite, assigning them a 76% chance to win because their 8-5 record and 116.7 points per game contrast with New Orleans' 4-10 record and 115.9 points per game. New Orleans has struggled overall, allowing 124.9 points per game, while Golden State has been more efficient, giving up only 112.4 points per game. New Orleans' home form is weak, 3-6 at home with a 5-game losing streak and recent losses to Denver 108-116, Memphis 111-142 and Brooklyn 111-145. Golden State's road record is 2-4, but they have won three of their last five away games and defeated New Orleans 138-87 in their most recent meeting. The Pythia model projects a 111-120 score and a 231.2 total, with a 24% probability that the Pelicans win and a 76% probability that the Warriors win. The model also estimates a 5% chance of overtime. The Warriors' projected 120 points versus the Pelicans' 111 suggest a competitive but likely decisive game.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (14) | 115.9 | 124.9 | 240.8 | -9.1 | 29% |
| Season at home (9) | 113.7 | 119.7 | 233.3 | -6.0 | 33% |
| Season away (5) | 119.8 | 134.4 | 254.2 | -14.6 | 20% |
| Last 10 (10) | 115.7 | 126.1 | 241.8 | -10.4 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 108.0 | 136.0 | 244.0 | -28.0 | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (21) | 112.5 | 121.0 | 233.5 | -8.4 | 24% |
| vs Similar (8) | 124.5 | 125.4 | 249.9 | -0.9 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (1) | 113.0 | 117.0 | 230.0 | -4.0 | 0% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (13) | 116.7 | 112.4 | 229.1 | +4.3 | 62% |
| Season at home (7) | 120.6 | 105.3 | 225.9 | +15.3 | 86% |
| Season away (6) | 112.2 | 120.7 | 232.8 | -8.5 | 33% |
| Last 10 (10) | 118.2 | 109.2 | 227.4 | +9.0 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 115.4 | 108.8 | 224.2 | +6.6 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (9) | 104.7 | 117.6 | 222.2 | -12.9 | 11% |
| vs Similar (9) | 111.9 | 116.2 | 228.1 | -4.3 | 33% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (12) | 123.0 | 114.2 | 237.2 | +8.8 | 83% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 56.9 | 60.9 | 117.9 | -4.0 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 57.1 | 58.3 | 115.4 | -1.2 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 56.7 | 64.4 | 121.1 | -7.7 | 23% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 55.6 | 61.3 | 116.9 | -5.7 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 55.6 | 69.6 | 125.2 | -14.0 | 0% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (21) | 55.5 | 61.0 | 116.5 | -5.4 | 33% | - |
| vs Similar (8) | 59.5 | 61.6 | 121.1 | -2.1 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker (1) | 66.0 | 55.0 | 121.0 | +11.0 | 100% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 54.8 | 56.6 | 111.4 | -1.8 | 30% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 56.5 | 54.8 | 111.3 | +1.7 | 36% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 53.2 | 58.2 | 111.4 | -4.9 | 25% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 55.7 | 52.7 | 108.4 | +3.0 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 53.2 | 51.2 | 104.4 | +2.0 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (9) | 51.0 | 57.6 | 108.6 | -6.6 | 22% | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 52.0 | 56.4 | 108.4 | -4.4 | 11% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (12) | 59.7 | 56.0 | 115.7 | +3.7 | 50% | - |
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| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 65.1 | 34.2 | 54.0% | 68.4 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 29.0 | 9.4 | 35.1% | 28.2 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 30.8 | 25.9 | 77.3% | 25.9 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 44.1 | 23.6 | 54.0% | 47.2 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 40.7 | 16.7 | 35.1% | 50.1 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 23.8 | 19.0 | 77.3% | 19.0 |
New Orleans Pelicans
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | Golden State Warriors v New Orleans Pelicans | 138-87 |
| 25/02/26 | New Orleans Pelicans v Golden State Warriors | 113-109 |
| 30/11/25 | Golden State Warriors v New Orleans Pelicans | 104-96 |
| 17/11/25 | New Orleans Pelicans v Golden State Warriors | 106-124 |
| 29/03/25 | New Orleans Pelicans v Golden State Warriors | 95-111 |
| 23/11/24 | New Orleans Pelicans v Golden State Warriors | 108-112 |
| 31/10/24 | Golden State Warriors v New Orleans Pelicans | 104-89 |
| 30/10/24 | Golden State Warriors v New Orleans Pelicans | 124-106 |
| 13/04/24 | Golden State Warriors v New Orleans Pelicans | 109-114 |
| 11/01/24 | Golden State Warriors v New Orleans Pelicans | 105-141 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/26 | H | Denver Nuggets | 108-116 |
| 14/11/26 | H | Memphis Grizzlies | 111-142 |
| 12/11/26 | H | Brooklyn Nets | 111-145 |
| 10/11/26 | A | Golden State Warriors | 87-138 |
| 09/11/26 | A | Los Angeles Clippers | 123-139 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Minnesota Timberwolves | 109-115 |
| 05/11/26 | H | Utah Jazz | 120-113 OT |
| 03/11/26 | A | Memphis Grizzlies | 135-134 OT |
| 31/10/26 | H | Atlanta Hawks | 121-99 |
| 30/10/26 | H | Sacramento Kings | 132-120 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | San Antonio Spurs | 85-123 |
| 12/11/26 | A | Houston Rockets | 108-115 |
| 10/11/26 | H | New Orleans Pelicans | 138-87 |
| 08/11/26 | H | Orlando Magic | 126-119 OT |
| 06/11/26 | H | Miami Heat | 120-100 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Phoenix Suns | 116-113 |
| 02/11/26 | H | Los Angeles Clippers | 124-112 |
| 31/10/26 | H | Los Angeles Lakers | 112-95 |
| 29/10/26 | A | Minnesota Timberwolves | 119-114 |
| 27/10/26 | A | Denver Nuggets | 134-114 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLLL | 29% |
| Home | WLLLL | 33% |
| Away | LLWLL | 20% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 9 | 5 |
| Win % | 29% | 33% | 20% |
| Points / game | 115.9 | 113.7 | 119.8 |
| Allowed / game | 124.9 | 119.7 | 134.4 |
| Point differential | -9.1 | -6.0 | -14.6 |
| Avg total | 240.8 | 233.3 | 254.2 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 14% | 22% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 33% (3) | 0% (1) | 50% (2) |
| Overtime % | 21% | 11% | 40% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWLL | 62% |
| Home | WWWWW | 86% |
| Away | LWWLL | 33% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 7 | 6 |
| Win % | 62% | 86% | 33% |
| Points / game | 116.7 | 120.6 | 112.2 |
| Allowed / game | 112.4 | 105.3 | 120.7 |
| Point differential | +4.3 | +15.3 | -8.5 |
| Avg total | 229.1 | 225.9 | 232.8 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 38% | 57% | 17% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 67% (3) | 50% (2) | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 8% | 14% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  San Antonio Spurs | 13 | 11 | 2 | 85% | 119.5 | 106.2 | +13.2 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles Lakers | 13 | 11 | 2 | 85% | 122.2 | 114.2 | +7.9 |
| 3 |  Boston Celtics | 12 | 10 | 2 | 83% | 114.2 | 103.1 | +11.2 |
| 4 |  Houston Rockets | 13 | 10 | 3 | 77% | 116.2 | 107.4 | +8.8 |
| 5 |  Philadelphia 76ers | 13 | 10 | 3 | 77% | 111.2 | 109.4 | +1.8 |
| 6 |  Portland Trail Blazers | 12 | 9 | 3 | 75% | 119.6 | 111.8 | +7.8 |
| 7 |  Minnesota Timberwolves | 13 | 9 | 4 | 69% | 118.3 | 106.8 | +11.5 |
| 8 |  Memphis Grizzlies | 13 | 9 | 4 | 69% | 120.6 | 111.7 | +8.9 |
| 9 |  Detroit Pistons | 12 | 8 | 4 | 67% | 115.7 | 110.2 | +5.4 |
| 10 |  Denver Nuggets | 11 | 7 | 4 | 64% | 114.6 | 112.8 | +1.8 |
| 11 | Golden State Warriors | 13 | 8 | 5 | 62% | 116.7 | 112.4 | +4.3 |
| 12 |  Oklahoma City Thunder | 13 | 8 | 5 | 62% | 111.2 | 107.4 | +3.8 |
| 13 |  Atlanta Hawks | 13 | 7 | 6 | 54% | 118.2 | 116.8 | +1.3 |
| 14 |  Dallas Mavericks | 13 | 7 | 6 | 54% | 113.5 | 113.3 | +0.2 |
| 15 |  Miami Heat | 13 | 7 | 6 | 54% | 118.7 | 119.8 | -1.2 |
| 16 |  New York Knicks | 12 | 6 | 6 | 50% | 109.8 | 103.7 | +6.1 |
| 17 |  Cleveland Cavaliers | 14 | 7 | 7 | 50% | 117.5 | 115.9 | +1.6 |
| 18 |  Phoenix Suns | 11 | 5 | 6 | 45% | 111.7 | 116.1 | -4.4 |
| 19 |  Toronto Raptors | 12 | 5 | 7 | 42% | 114.2 | 112.8 | +1.4 |
| 20 |  Orlando Magic | 12 | 5 | 7 | 42% | 108.3 | 112.8 | -4.4 |
| 21 |  Indiana Pacers | 13 | 5 | 8 | 38% | 111.2 | 113.2 | -2.1 |
| 22 |  Charlotte Hornets | 12 | 4 | 8 | 33% | 98.6 | 109.6 | -11.0 |
| 23 |  Washington Wizards | 13 | 4 | 9 | 31% | 110.0 | 115.8 | -5.8 |
| 24 | New Orleans Pelicans | 14 | 4 | 10 | 29% | 115.9 | 124.9 | -9.1 |
| 25 |  Los Angeles Clippers | 11 | 3 | 8 | 27% | 112.3 | 117.5 | -5.3 |
| 26 |  Brooklyn Nets | 12 | 3 | 9 | 25% | 110.2 | 116.4 | -6.2 |
| 27 |  Chicago Bulls | 12 | 3 | 9 | 25% | 114.6 | 125.9 | -11.3 |
| 28 |  Sacramento Kings | 12 | 1 | 11 | 8% | 108.2 | 120.9 | -12.8 |
| 29 |  Utah Jazz | 13 | 1 | 12 | 8% | 107.5 | 118.6 | -11.2 |
| 30 |  Milwaukee Bucks | 13 | 1 | 12 | 8% | 106.2 | 120.2 | -14.1 |
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