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North Florida vs Central Arkansas Prediction & Stats

Date: Tue 24 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 78-80
Projected total 157.9
Scheduled
Position#331
Record1-3
FormLWLLL
Points / game64.8
Allowed / game85.8
North Florida
USA
Vs
44%
56%
■ NORT 44%■ CENT 56%
Pythia win probability
Central Arkansas
USA
Position#192
Record2-2
FormLWLWL
Points / game84.5
Allowed / game70.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · North Florida v Central Arkansas
23 Nov 2026
NORT v CENT
upcoming
16 Jan 2025
NORT92
CENT80
10 Feb 2024
NORT77
CENT79
27 Jan 2022
NORT93
CENT74
Sections
Game preview & prediction
North Florida host Central Arkansas in the NCAA. Pythia makes Central Arkansas the favourite at 56% and projects 78-80, about 158 points in all. Overtime chance: 5%. North Florida are 1-3 this season (64.8 scored, 85.8 allowed a game), form LWLLL; Central Arkansas are 2-2 this season (84.5 scored, 70.0 allowed a game), form LWLWL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

North Florida win
43.7%fair 2.29
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Central Arkansas win
56.3%fair 1.78
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 14 Nov 07:41 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

North FloridaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Jacksonville Dolphins
#289
L
56-63
56
63
-7
A14/02
NCAA
Austin Peay
#49
L
76-77
76
77
-1
H20/02
NCAA
Stetson
#304
L
71-76
71
76
-5
A21/02
NCAA
Florida Gulf Coast
#224
W
76-70
76
70
+6
H27/02
NCAA
Jacksonville Dolphins
#289
L
61-85
61
85
-24
H28/02
NCAA
West Georgia
#243
L
85-93
85
93
-8
A05/03
NCAA
California Baptist
#321
W
71-63
71
63
+8
A04/11
NCAA
UCLA
#2
L
63-114
63
114
-51
A07/11
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#92
L
51-89
51
89
-38
A10/11
NCAA
Citadel
#90
L
74-77
74
77
-3
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
26-32
30-31
43-29
33-48
40-29
31-47
27-36
49-34
20-49
41-36
35-48
50-45
33-31
38-32
20-52
43-62
25-44
26-45
35-29
39-48
149.1Avg total
68.4Scored
80.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)64.885.8150.5-21.025%
Season at home (1)74.077.0151.0-3.00%
Season away (3)61.788.7150.3-27.033%
Last 10 (10)68.480.7149.1-12.320%
Last 5 (5)68.887.2156.0-18.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)74.989.0163.8-14.119%
vs Similar (3)84.383.7168.0+0.733%
vs Weaker (1)111.067.0178.0+44.0100%
This opponent (Central Arkansas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Central ArkansasUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Florida Gulf Coast
#224
L
71-75 OT
71
75
-4
A21/02
NCAA
Austin Peay
#49
W
93-88
93
88
+5
A26/02
NCAA
Queens Royals
#116
W
84-79
84
79
+5
H28/02
NCAA
Bellarmine
#279
W
86-73
86
73
+13
H06/03
NCAA
Florida Gulf Coast
#224
W
73-63
73
63
+10
H07/03
NCAA
Queens Royals
#116
L
93-98 OT
93
98
-5
H08/03
NCAA
Oral Roberts
#191
W
85-55
85
55
+30
H03/11
NCAA
Ole Miss
#3
L
60-92
60
92
-32
A07/11
NCAA
Ecclesia
#538
W
127-54
127
54
+73
H11/11
NCAA
Arkansas
#110
L
66-79
66
79
-13
A14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
29-32
34-31
44-46
49-42
31-24
53-55
48-34
38-39
35-32
38-31
34-30
48-52
47-31
38-24
24-47
36-45
71-23
56-31
27-43
39-36
159.4Avg total
83.8Scored
75.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)84.570.0154.5+14.550%
Season at home (2)106.054.5160.5+51.5100%
Season away (2)63.085.5148.5-22.50%
Last 10 (10)83.875.6159.4+8.260%
Last 5 (5)86.275.6161.8+10.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)66.087.5153.5-21.50%
vs Similar (5)82.479.8162.2+2.660%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)82.473.0155.4+9.476%
This opponent (North Florida) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 145
Over 145
78.3%
Under 145
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 150
Over 150
68.0%
Under 150
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 155
Over 155
56.2%
Under 155
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

North Florida total 78.5
Over 78.5
47.9%
Under 78.5
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
North Florida total 82.5
Over 82.5
33.1%
Under 82.5
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
North Florida total 86.5
Over 86.5
20.7%
Under 86.5
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Central Arkansas total 63.5
Over 63.5
94.4%
Under 63.5
5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Central Arkansas total 67.5
Over 67.5
88.4%
Under 67.5
11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Central Arkansas total 71.5
Over 71.5
79.0%
Under 71.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread North Florida -3
NORT -3
34.8%
CENT +3
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
NORT
No market prices yet.
CENT
No market prices yet.
Spread North Florida 0
NORT 0
43.7%
CENT 0
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
NORT
No market prices yet.
CENT
No market prices yet.
Spread North Florida +3
NORT +3
52.8%
CENT -3
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
NORT
No market prices yet.
CENT
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-9-5+0+5+91st half1st half: -7.5-7.51st half: +4.8+4.82nd half2nd half: -4.8-4.82nd half: +4.3+4.3
-9-5+0+5+91st half1st half: -7.5-7.51st half: +4.8+4.82nd half2nd half: -4.8-4.82nd half: +4.3+4.3
North FloridaCentral Arkansas
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
North FloridaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Jacksonville Dolphins
#289
L
26-32
26
32
-6
A14/02
NCAA
Austin Peay
#49
W
43-29
43
29
+14
H20/02
NCAA
Stetson
#304
W
40-29
40
29
+11
A21/02
NCAA
Florida Gulf Coast
#224
L
27-36
27
36
-9
H27/02
NCAA
Jacksonville Dolphins
#289
L
20-49
20
49
-29
H28/02
NCAA
West Georgia
#243
L
35-48
35
48
-13
A05/03
NCAA
California Baptist
#321
W
33-31
33
31
+2
A04/11
NCAA
UCLA
#2
L
20-52
20
52
-32
A07/11
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#92
L
25-44
25
44
-19
A10/11
NCAA
Citadel
#90
W
35-29
35
29
+6
H14/11
NCAA
68.3Avg total
30.4Scored
37.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.841.277.0-5.430%-
Last 30 at home (13)38.737.876.5+0.846%-
Last 30 away (17)33.643.777.3-10.118%-
Last 10 (10)30.437.968.3-7.540%-
Last 5 (5)29.640.870.4-11.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)34.242.576.7-8.423%-
vs Similar (3)41.334.776.0+6.767%-
vs Weaker (1)62.025.087.0+37.0100%-
This opponent (Central Arkansas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Central ArkansasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Florida Gulf Coast
#224
L
29-32
29
32
-3
A21/02
NCAA
Austin Peay
#49
L
44-46
44
46
-2
A26/02
NCAA
Queens Royals
#116
W
31-24
31
24
+7
H28/02
NCAA
Bellarmine
#279
W
48-34
48
34
+14
H06/03
NCAA
Florida Gulf Coast
#224
W
35-32
35
32
+3
H07/03
NCAA
Queens Royals
#116
W
34-30
34
30
+4
H08/03
NCAA
Oral Roberts
#191
W
47-31
47
31
+16
H03/11
NCAA
Ole Miss
#3
L
24-47
24
47
-23
A07/11
NCAA
Ecclesia
#538
W
71-23
71
23
+48
H11/11
NCAA
Arkansas
#110
L
27-43
27
43
-16
A14/11
NCAA
73.2Avg total
39.0Scored
34.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.934.474.3+5.657%-
Last 30 at home (16)42.329.972.2+12.481%-
Last 30 away (14)37.239.476.6-2.229%-
Last 10 (10)39.034.273.2+4.860%-
Last 5 (5)40.634.875.4+5.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)27.547.074.5-19.50%-
vs Similar (5)42.040.882.8+1.240%-
vs Weaker ◀ (21)38.832.671.4+6.162%-
This opponent (North Florida) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
North Florida wins
4
Central Arkansas wins
DateGameScore
17/01/26Central Arkansas v North Florida98-69
15/02/25Central Arkansas v North Florida84-83 OT
17/01/25North Florida v Central Arkansas92-80
10/02/24North Florida v Central Arkansas77-79
27/01/23Central Arkansas v North Florida88-85 OT
28/01/22North Florida v Central Arkansas93-74
North Floridalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HCitadel74-77
10/11/26AMiami (FL)51-89
07/11/26AUCLA63-114
04/11/26ACalifornia Baptist71-63
05/03/26AWest Georgia85-93
28/02/26HJacksonville Dolphins61-85
27/02/26HFlorida Gulf Coast76-70
21/02/26AStetson71-76
20/02/26HAustin Peay76-77
14/02/26AJacksonville Dolphins56-63
Central Arkansaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AArkansas66-79
11/11/26HEcclesia127-54
07/11/26AOle Miss60-92
03/11/26HOral Roberts85-55
08/03/26HQueens Royals93-98 OT
07/03/26HFlorida Gulf Coast73-63
06/03/26HBellarmine86-73
28/02/26HQueens Royals84-79
26/02/26AAustin Peay93-88
21/02/26AFlorida Gulf Coast71-75 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

North Florida
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLL25%
HomeL0%
AwayWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games413
Win %25%0%33%
Points / game64.874.061.7
Allowed / game85.877.088.7
Point differential-21.0-3.0-27.0
Avg total150.5151.0150.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Central Arkansas
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWL50%
HomeWW100%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %50%100%0%
Points / game84.5106.063.0
Allowed / game70.054.585.5
Point differential+14.5+51.5-22.5
Avg total154.5160.5148.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

ASUN conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Eastern Kentucky43175%97.066.5+30.5
2 Lipscomb53260%74.876.4-1.6
3 Queens Royals53260%89.2100.2-11.0
4 Central Arkansas42250%84.570.0+14.5
5 Austin Peay42250%80.068.2+11.8
6 North Alabama42250%69.879.0-9.2
7 Florida Gulf Coast52340%87.072.6+14.4
8 North Florida41325%64.885.8-21.0
9 Bellarmine51420%70.483.8-13.4
10 West Georgia4040%62.279.0-16.8
11 Stetson4040%60.583.0-22.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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