Miami (FL) hosts North Florida on 9 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Miami (FL) the clear favourite with a 99% win probability, reflecting Miami's 1-1 record, 75.0 points per game and 67.0 allowed per game versus North Florida's 1-1 record, 67.0 points per game and 88.5 allowed per game, and Miami's 1-0 home record with 83.0 points and 57.0 allowed. Miami's recent form includes a 83-57 home win over Wagner on 6 November, while North Florida's recent outings feature a 71-63 away win over California Baptist on 3 November. The teams have met three times before, all victories for Miami (FL) including a 105-67 win on 21 December 2025. Pythia projects a 96-67 score for the game, with a total of 162.3 points and a 57% chance the total will exceed 159.5, while the 99% probability that Miami (FL) will win reflects the model's assessment of the matchup. The game is expected to finish in regulation, with no overtime probability.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Miami (FL) winWon
99.0%fair 1.01
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
North Florida winLost
1.0%fair 97.12
Best odds100.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 08 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Miami (FL)) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 154.5Actual: Under 154.5
Over 154.5
68.7%
@ 1.37-2.6pp
Under 154.5
31.3%
@ 3.75+2.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.23
Under
Bet365
3.75
Betano
2.80
Over/Under 159.5 · main lineActual: Under 159.5
Over 159.5
56.9%
@ 1.83+4.2pp
Under 159.5
43.1%
@ 2.55-4.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Marathon Be
1.71
Betano
1.67
Under
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.07
Marathon Be
2.00
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 164.5Actual: Under 164.5
Over 164.5
44.5%
@ 2.15-4.8pp
Under 164.5
55.5%
@ 1.90+4.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.15
Pinnacle
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.86
Under
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
📊 3. Team Totals
Miami (FL) total 92.5Actual: Miami (FL) under 92.5
Over 92.5
62.0%
@ 1.33-5.8pp
Under 92.5
38.0%
@ 2.80+5.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Under
Betano
2.80
Miami (FL) total 96.5 · main lineActual: Miami (FL) under 96.5
Over 96.5
46.1%
@ 1.85-5.0pp
Under 96.5
53.9%
@ 2.07+5.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.67
Under
Betano
2.07
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Miami (FL) total 100.5Actual: Miami (FL) under 100.5
Over 100.5
30.7%
@ 1.88-21.0pp
Under 100.5
69.3%
@ 1.95+21.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Pinnacle
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Betano
1.83
North Florida total 60.5Actual: North Florida under 60.5
Over 60.5
73.6%
@ 1.45+11.3pp
Under 60.5
26.4%
@ 2.40-11.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Under
Betano
2.40
North Florida total 64.5 · main lineActual: North Florida under 64.5
Over 64.5
59.0%
@ 1.87+9.0pp
Under 64.5
41.0%
@ 1.91-9.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
Under
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Be
1.83
North Florida total 68.5Actual: North Florida under 68.5
Over 68.5
43.0%
@ 2.75+10.1pp
Under 68.5
57.0%
@ 1.35-10.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.75
Under
Betano
1.35
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Miami (FL) -36.5Actual: Miami (FL) -36.5
MIAM -36.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
NORT +36.5
no forecast
@ 2.01
Best 5 market prices
MIAM
Betano
2.18
Marathon Be
1.87
Bet365
1.86
Pinnacle
1.81
1xBet
1.73
NORT
Pinnacle
2.01
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Be
1.87
Betano
1.60
Spread Miami (FL) -33.5 · main lineActual: Miami (FL) -33.5
MIAM -33.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
NORT +33.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
Best 5 market prices
MIAM
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
BetVictor
1.78
1xBet
1.73
NORT
1xBet
2.00
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.90
BetVictor
1.85
Spread Miami (FL) -30.5Actual: Miami (FL) -30.5
MIAM -30.5
no forecast
@ 1.73
NORT +30.5
no forecast
@ 2.30
Best 5 market prices
MIAM
1xBet
1.73
Marathon Be
1.73
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.55
NORT
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.00
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Miami (FL)North Florida
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Miami (FL) under 102.5
76.0%
1.55
Pinnacle
1.73
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
+21.5pp
Won
Miami (FL) under 101
71.8%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+21.5pp
Won
Miami (FL) under 101.5
72.7%
1.69
Pinnacle
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.45
-
-
+21.4pp
Won
North Florida over 61.5
70.2%
1.59
Pinnacle
1.73
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.50
-
-
+16.0pp
Lost
North Florida over 60.5
73.6%
1.45
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
-
+11.3pp
Lost
North Florida over 58.5
79.7%
1.31
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Lost
North Florida over 57.5
82.4%
1.25
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Lost
North Florida over 59.5
76.8%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Lost
Over 151.5
75.0%
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Lost
North Florida over 56.5
84.9%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Lost
Under 173
75.3%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Under 173.5
75.8%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
North Florida over 54.5
89.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Lost
North Florida over 52.5
92.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Lost
Under 171
71.1%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
North Florida over 51.5
93.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Lost
North Florida over 55.5
87.1%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Lost
Under 172
73.2%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
North Florida over 53.5
90.9%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Lost
Under 171.5
71.7%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Under 172.5
73.8%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Over 154
70.2%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Lost
Miami (FL) over 77.5
96.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Over 153.5
70.8%
1.36
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Lost
Under 174.5
77.7%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Over 153
72.4%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Lost
Miami (FL) over 80.5
93.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Miami (FL) over 78.5
95.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Over 137.5
93.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Under 179.5
85.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Over 152.5
72.9%
1.29
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Lost
Miami (FL) over 79.5
94.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Under 182.5
89.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Miami (FL) over 82.5
90.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Over 139.5
92.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.0pp
Won
Miami (FL) over 81.5
92.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
Over 142.5
89.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Lost
Under 177.5
82.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Miami (FL) over 83.5
88.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Miami (FL) over 84.5
86.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Over 147.5
82.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Lost
Miami (FL) -13.5
90.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
North Florida under 79.5
89.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
Over 144.5
86.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Lost
Miami (FL) -14.5
89.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
North Florida under 77.5
86.0%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Won
Miami (FL) over 85.5
84.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Won
Miami (FL) over 86.5
81.9%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-4.7pp
Won
Miami (FL) -22.5
71.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-5.2pp
Won
Miami (FL) -23
70.1%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-5.2pp
Won
Over 149.5
78.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-5.6pp
Lost
Miami (FL) over 88.5
76.1%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-6.2pp
Won
North Florida under 75.5
81.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-7.2pp
Won
Miami (FL) -18.5
81.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-7.4pp
Won
Miami (FL) over 87.5
79.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-8.0pp
Won
North Florida under 74.5
78.2%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-8.4pp
Won
Miami (FL) -19.5
79.2%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-9.1pp
Won
North Florida under 73.5
75.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-9.2pp
Won
Miami (FL) over 89.5
72.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-10.9pp
Lost
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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