Notre Dame faces Eastern Illinois on 9 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the model names Notre Dame the clear favourite, rating them 96% to win based on a 2-0 record, 78.5 points per game and 64.0 allowed, plus a 1-0 home record of 83.0 points scored and 56.0 allowed. Eastern Illinois sits 0-2, 52.0 points per game and 91.0 allowed, with a 0-2 road record. Notre Dame's last five games show three wins and two losses, including a 83-56 home victory over Mercyhurst Lakers and a 74-72 away win over Villanova, while Eastern Illinois has one win and four losses, with defeats to Iowa, Indiana and UT Martin. In the single meeting of the season, Notre Dame won 78-58. The Pythia model projects a 85-64 score, 148.6 total points, and gives Notre Dame a 96% chance to win, Eastern Illinois 4%. The home team line is 142.0 with a 66% probability of the over, and the overtime probability is 1%. Notre Dame's recent 83-56 home win shows the team's ability to dominate on its own floor.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Notre Dame winWon
96.2%fair 1.04
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Eastern Illinois winLost
3.8%fair 26.03
Best odds50.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 08 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Eastern Illinois over 57.5
73.5%
2.04
Pinnacle
2.14
Betano
1.95
-
-
-
+29.6pp
Won
Eastern Illinois over 56.5
76.7%
1.87
Pinnacle
2.00
WilliamHill
1.85
Betano
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
+29.4pp
Won
Eastern Illinois over 58.5
70.2%
2.24
1xBet
2.38
Betano
2.10
-
-
-
+29.0pp
Won
Eastern Illinois over 55.5
79.7%
1.75
Pinnacle
1.85
Betano
1.65
-
-
-
+28.6pp
Won
Eastern Illinois over 56
79.1%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
-
+28.5pp
Won
Eastern Illinois over 57
76.0%
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
-
-
-
+26.5pp
Won
Eastern Illinois over 54.5
82.4%
1.52
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
-
+22.7pp
Won
Eastern Illinois over 53.5
84.9%
1.45
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.43
Betano
1.42
-
-
+21.4pp
Won
Eastern Illinois over 52.5
87.1%
1.40
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
+21.3pp
Won
Over 140
70.6%
1.74
Pinnacle
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.72
Bet365
1.68
-
-
+18.4pp
Won
Over 139
72.8%
1.66
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.63
Bet365
1.60
-
-
+18.1pp
Won
Over 139.5
71.3%
1.71
WilliamHill
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
1xBet
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.68
Betano
1.65
+17.9pp
Won
Eastern Illinois over 51.5
89.1%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
-
-
-
+17.7pp
Won
Over 138.5
73.4%
1.61
Pinnacle
1.70
1xBet
1.63
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.55
-
+17.6pp
Won
Over 138
74.9%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
-
+14.5pp
Won
Over 137.5
75.4%
1.51
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+13.8pp
Won
Over 136.5
77.3%
1.44
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
+13.1pp
Won
Over 137
76.8%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+12.6pp
Won
Over 136
78.7%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Won
Over 133.5
82.5%
1.32
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+12.4pp
Won
Over 135.5
79.1%
1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+12.4pp
Won
Over 135
80.5%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Won
Over 134.5
80.9%
1.33
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+11.5pp
Won
Over 134
82.2%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+10.8pp
Won
Over 131.5
85.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Over 126.5
91.5%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
Notre Dame under 102.5
96.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Notre Dame under 101.5
95.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Notre Dame under 100.5
94.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Notre Dame under 94.5
83.8%
1.16
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Notre Dame under 99.5
93.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Notre Dame under 98.5
91.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Notre Dame under 96.5
88.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Notre Dame under 91.5
75.3%
1.28
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Lost
Notre Dame under 97.5
90.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Notre Dame under 90.5
72.0%
1.32
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Lost
Notre Dame under 93.5
81.2%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Lost
Notre Dame under 95.5
86.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Notre Dame over 78.5
73.7%
1.29
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Notre Dame under 92.5
78.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Lost
Notre Dame over 72.5
89.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Notre Dame over 74.5
85.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Notre Dame over 73.5
87.3%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Notre Dame over 75.5
82.6%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Notre Dame over 77.5
76.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Notre Dame over 79.5
70.3%
1.31
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Notre Dame over 76.5
79.9%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
Notre Dame -7.5
88.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.8pp
Won
Notre Dame -8.5
86.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.0pp
Won
Under 166.5
86.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.0pp
Won
Under 161.5
78.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-11.3pp
Lost
Notre Dame -12.5
77.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-12.2pp
Won
Eastern Illinois under 71.5
78.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-14.2pp
Won
Notre Dame -13.5
74.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-14.3pp
Won
Eastern Illinois under 69.5
71.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-18.7pp
Lost
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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