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Villanova vs Notre Dame Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 01 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 14:30
Final 72-74
35-31 37-43
Position#238
Record-
FormLWWLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Villanova
USA
Vs
72%
28%
■ VILL 72%■ NOTR 28%
Pythia win probability
Projected 76-70
Projected total 146.0
Notre Dame 🏆
USA
Position#204
Record-
FormLLWLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA· Palazzo dello Sport
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off
Villanova host Notre Dame in the NCAA. Pythia makes Villanova the favourite at 72% and projects 76-70, about 146 points in all (over 147: 47%). On the market's main spread (Villanova -7) Pythia gives Villanova 49% to cover. Overtime chance: 5%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Villanova winLost
72.1%fair 1.39
Best odds1.31
Implied73.7%
Edge-1.6pp
Notre Dame winWon
27.9%fair 3.58
Best odds3.67
Implied26.3%
Edge+1.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 31 Oct 09:03 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VillanovaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Marquette
#290
W
77-74
77
74
+3
H11/02
NCAA
Creighton
#238
W
80-69
80
69
+11
A14/02
NCAA
Xavier
#248
W
92-89 OT
92
89
+3
A17/02
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
63-73
63
73
-10
H21/02
NCAA
Butler
#208
W
82-73
82
73
+9
H26/02
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
L
57-89
57
89
-32
A01/03
NCAA
DePaul
#213
W
76-57
76
57
+19
A05/03
NCAA
Xavier
#248
W
91-78
91
78
+13
H07/03
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
L
64-78
64
78
-14
H13/03
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
76-86
76
86
-10
H20/03
NCAA
1H
2H
36-32
41-42
41-27
39-42
43-42
38-39
32-34
31-39
42-28
40-45
23-48
34-41
26-24
50-33
44-32
47-46
31-35
33-43
39-37
37-49
152.4Avg total
75.8Scored
76.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)75.876.6152.4-0.860%
Last 5 (5)72.877.6150.4-4.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)66.880.8147.5-14.00%
vs Similar (7)72.770.0142.7+2.771%
vs Weaker (19)79.770.2149.9+9.689%
Notre DameUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Syracuse
#236
L
72-86
72
86
-14
A31/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
65-76
65
76
-11
A05/02
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
79-82
79
82
-3
H07/02
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
81-89
81
89
-8
A11/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
89-74
89
74
+15
H14/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
L
68-73
68
73
-5
A21/02
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
56-100
56
100
-44
H25/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
96-90 OT
96
90
+6
H28/02
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
78-86
78
86
-8
H05/03
NCAA
Boston College
#308
L
69-77
69
77
-8
A07/03
NCAA
1H
2H
31-40
41-46
32-38
33-38
32-41
47-41
37-43
44-46
45-33
44-41
20-23
48-50
22-54
34-46
38-44
43-37
37-45
41-41
33-30
36-47
158.6Avg total
75.3Scored
83.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)75.383.3158.6-8.020%
Last 5 (5)73.485.2158.6-11.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)71.678.4150.1-6.828%
vs Similar (11)77.172.5149.6+4.555%
vs Weaker (1)82.058.0140.0+24.0100%
Over/Under 142Actual: Over 142
Over 142
59.3%
@ 1.44-5.3pp
Under 142
40.7%
@ 2.62+5.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Under
Bet365
2.62
Over/Under 147 · main lineActual: Under 147
Over 147
46.9%
@ 1.88-3.7pp
Under 147
53.1%
@ 1.92+3.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.87
Bet365
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.92
Pinnacle
1.92
SBO
1.87
Over/Under 152Actual: Under 152
Over 152
34.9%
@ 2.50-2.6pp
Under 152
65.1%
@ 1.50+2.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50

📊 3. Team Totals

Villanova total 74Actual: Villanova under 74
Over 74
59.4%
Under 74
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Villanova total 78 · main lineActual: Villanova under 78
Over 78
43.0%
@ 1.85-7.0pp
Under 78
57.0%
@ 1.85+7.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Villanova total 82Actual: Villanova under 82
Over 82
27.8%
Under 82
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notre Dame total 66Actual: Notre Dame over 66
Over 66
64.1%
Under 66
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notre Dame total 70 · main lineActual: Notre Dame over 70
Over 70
48.2%
@ 1.85-1.8pp
Under 70
51.8%
@ 1.85+1.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Notre Dame total 74Push
Over 74
32.8%
Under 74
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Villanova -10Actual: Notre Dame +10
VILL -10
37.7%
@ 2.30-2.5pp
NOTR +10
62.3%
@ 1.55+2.5pp
Best 5 market prices
VILL
Bet365
2.30
NOTR
Bet365
1.55
Spread Villanova -7 · main lineActual: Notre Dame +7
VILL -7
49.0%
@ 1.91-1.3pp
NOTR +7
51.0%
@ 1.94+1.3pp
Best 5 market prices
VILL
Pinnacle
1.91
SBO
1.87
Bet365
1.83
NOTR
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.91
SBO
1.87
Spread Villanova -4Actual: Notre Dame +4
VILL -4
60.9%
@ 1.54-0.0pp
NOTR +4
39.1%
@ 2.40+0.0pp
Best 5 market prices
VILL
Bet365
1.54
NOTR
Bet365
2.40

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +1.8+1.81st half: -6.4-6.42nd half2nd half: -2.9-2.92nd half: -2.2-2.2
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +1.8+1.81st half: -6.4-6.42nd half2nd half: -2.9-2.92nd half: -2.2-2.2
VillanovaNotre Dame
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
VillanovaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Marquette
#290
W
36-32
36
32
+4
H11/02
NCAA
Creighton
#238
W
41-27
41
27
+14
A14/02
NCAA
Xavier
#248
W
43-42
43
42
+1
A17/02
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
32-34
32
34
-2
H21/02
NCAA
Butler
#208
W
42-28
42
28
+14
H26/02
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
L
23-48
23
48
-25
A01/03
NCAA
DePaul
#213
W
26-24
26
24
+2
A05/03
NCAA
Xavier
#248
W
44-32
44
32
+12
H07/03
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
L
31-35
31
35
-4
H13/03
NCAA
Utah State
#20
W
39-37
39
37
+2
H20/03
NCAA
69.6Avg total
35.7Scored
33.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 68
Last 30 (30)35.932.568.4+3.473%50%
Last 30 at home (18)37.030.867.8+6.278%50%
Last 30 away (12)34.335.169.4-0.867%50%
Last 10 (10)35.733.969.6+1.870%50%
Last 5 (5)32.635.267.8-2.660%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)31.237.869.0-6.550%50%
vs Similar (7)34.031.665.6+2.471%43%
vs Weaker (19)37.631.769.4+5.979%53%
Notre DameLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Syracuse
#236
L
31-40
31
40
-9
A31/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
32-38
32
38
-6
A05/02
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
32-41
32
41
-9
H07/02
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
37-43
37
43
-6
A11/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
45-33
45
33
+12
H14/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
L
20-23
20
23
-3
A21/02
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
22-54
22
54
-32
H25/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
L
38-44
38
44
-6
H28/02
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
37-45
37
45
-8
H05/03
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
33-30
33
30
+3
A07/03
NCAA
71.8Avg total
32.7Scored
39.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 68
Last 30 (30)33.135.568.7-2.437%60%
Last 30 at home (17)34.935.770.6-0.841%65%
Last 30 away (13)30.835.366.1-4.531%54%
Last 10 (10)32.739.171.8-6.420%80%
Last 5 (5)30.039.269.2-9.220%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)33.138.671.7-5.522%72%
vs Similar (11)32.531.163.5+1.455%36%
vs Weaker (1)41.029.070.0+12.0100%100%
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Villanova win
VILL win
no forecast
@ 1.42
NOTR win
no forecast
@ 2.95
1st half Spread Villanova -4 · main linePush
VILL -4
no forecast
@ 1.93
NOTR +4
no forecast
@ 1.90
1st half Over/Under 68 · main lineActual: Under 68
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
Villanova 1st half total 36.5 · main lineActual: Villanova under 36.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Notre Dame 1st half total 32.5 · main lineActual: Notre Dame under 32.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half: VILL + total 68.5
VILL & over
no forecast
@ 2.75
VILL & under
no forecast
@ 2.75
1st half: Draw + total 68.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 26.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 26.00
1st half: NOTR + total 68.5
NOTR & over
no forecast
@ 5.75
NOTR & under
no forecast
@ 5.75
1st half Over/Under 66.5Actual: Under 66.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.57
Under
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half Over/Under 69.5Actual: Under 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.13
Under
no forecast
@ 1.86
1st half Spread Villanova -5Actual: Notre Dame +5
VILL -5
no forecast
@ 2.13
NOTR +5
no forecast
@ 1.73
1st half Spread Villanova -3Actual: Villanova -3
VILL -3
no forecast
@ 1.76
NOTR +3
no forecast
@ 2.08
1st half Over/Under 64.5Actual: Over 64.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.40
Under
no forecast
@ 2.67
1st half Over/Under 71.5Actual: Under 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.50
Under
no forecast
@ 1.55
1st half Spread Villanova -6.5Actual: Notre Dame +6.5
VILL -6.5
no forecast
@ 2.38
NOTR +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.53
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Notre Dame (regulation)
VILL
no forecast
@ 1.47
Draw
no forecast
@ 21.00
NOTR
no forecast
@ 3.00

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
VILL win + total 147.5
🔒 Pro
NOTR win + total 147.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: VILL leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 156.574.2%1.39
Betano
1.39		----+7.2ppWon
Villanova under 82.573.1%1.34
Betano
1.34		----+5.5ppWon
Villanova under 83.576.3%1.29
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.25		---+5.2ppWon
Notre Dame under 76.574.8%1.31
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.29		---+4.6ppWon
Overtime: no95.5%1.03
WilliamHill
1.04
Betano
1.02		---+4.3pp-
Notre Dame +14.575.9%1.29
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.27		---+3.9ppWon
Villanova under 84.579.3%1.22
1xBet
1.22		----+3.8ppWon
Notre Dame +15.578.5%1.24
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.22		---+3.8ppWon
Notre Dame +13.573.1%1.33
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.32		---+3.7ppWon
Villanova under 87.586.7%1.12
1xBet
1.12		----+3.6ppWon
Notre Dame +12.570.1%1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.37		---+3.5ppWon
Under 155.572.2%1.34
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.30		---+3.1ppWon
Notre Dame +1475.2%1.28
Bet365
1.28		----+2.8ppWon
Notre Dame +1372.2%1.34
Bet365
1.34		----+2.7ppWon
Notre Dame +1577.9%1.23
Bet365
1.23		----+2.6ppWon
Under 154.570.2%1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.35		---+2.4ppWon
Notre Dame under 75.571.6%1.31
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.30		---+1.8ppWon
Under 15571.7%1.33
Bet365
1.33		----+1.7ppWon
Villanova +1.574.3%1.27
Betano
1.27		----+1.5ppLost
Notre Dame under 79.582.9%1.14
1xBet
1.14		----+1.5ppWon
Villanova under 86.584.5%1.12
1xBet
1.12		----+1.4ppWon
Notre Dame under 78.580.4%1.17
1xBet
1.17		----+1.0ppWon
Villanova -171.3%1.32
Bet365
1.32		----+0.9ppLost
Notre Dame over 61.578.6%1.17
1xBet
1.17		-----0.8ppWon
Notre Dame over 63.572.4%1.25
1xBet
1.25		-----1.3ppWon
Villanova win72.1%1.30
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
Bet365
1.31
1xBet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29		-1.6ppLost
Notre Dame over 60.581.3%1.12
1xBet
1.12		-----1.7ppWon
Villanova over 68.578.0%1.14
1xBet
1.14		-----3.4ppWon
Villanova over 69.575.0%1.14
1xBet
1.14		-----6.5ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Villanova wins
0
Notre Dame wins
No previous meetings.
Villanovalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/03/26HUtah State76-86
13/03/26HGeorgetown64-78
07/03/26HXavier91-78
05/03/26ADePaul76-57
01/03/26ASt. John's (N.Y.)57-89
26/02/26HButler82-73
21/02/26HUconn63-73
17/02/26AXavier92-89 OT
14/02/26ACreighton80-69
11/02/26HMarquette77-74
Notre Damelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/03/26ABoston College69-77
05/03/26HStanford78-86
28/02/26HNC State96-90 OT
25/02/26HDuke56-100
21/02/26APittsburgh68-73
14/02/26HGeorgia Tech89-74
11/02/26ASMU Mustangs81-89
07/02/26HFlorida State79-82
05/02/26ALouisville65-76
31/01/26ASyracuse72-86

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Villanova
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 147---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Notre Dame
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 147---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

No league table for this competition yet.

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Villanova353772
Notre Dame314374
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