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Nurnberger vs Bayreuth Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 16:00
Projected 87-81
Projected total 167.9
Scheduled
Position#13
Record4-6
FormWWLLL
Points / game76.4
Allowed / game82.6
Vs
71%
29%
■ NURN 71%■ BAR 29%
Pythia win probability
Position#18
Record1-8
FormLLWLL
Points / game87.7
Allowed / game97.1
GermanyPro ARound 10· Kia Metropol Arena
Other2026-27
Meetings · Nurnberger v Bayreuth
15 Nov 2026
NURN v BAR
upcoming
23 Nov 2025
NURN90
BAR89
29 Mar 2025
NURN87
BAR95
03 Mar 2024
NURN95
BAR97
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Nurnberger host Bayreuth in the Pro A on 15 November 2026, with the model favouring the home side at 71% and projecting a 87-81 win. Nurnberger have gone 4-6 this season, averaging 76.4 points and conceding 82.6, and are 13th in the league; at home they are 2-2, scoring 75.5 and allowing 78.5, and have won two of their last five. Bayreuth are 1-8 overall, 87.7 points for and 97.1 against, 18th in the standings, and 0-4 on the road, 90.2 points for and 104.5 against, with one win in their last five. Their recent results include a 98-83 home win over Bochum, a 76-87 loss to Heidelberg and a 98-100 defeat to Paderborn. In the six meetings between the clubs, Bayreuth lead 5-1, most recently beating Nurnberger 96-68 on 6 February 2026. The spread is -7.5 for Nurnberger with a 46% chance to cover, the total is 170.5 with a 43% over probability, and the game has a 5% chance of overtime. The projected score of 87-81 reflects Nurnberger's modest offensive output against Bayreuth's higher-scoring but defensively weaker performance.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nurnberger win
70.9%fair 1.41
Best odds1.31
Implied74.1%
Edge-3.2pp
Bayreuth win
29.1%fair 3.43
Best odds3.75
Implied25.9%
Edge+3.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 22:22 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NurnbergerGermanyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
PS Karlsruhe
#12
W
83-79
83
79
+4
A26/09
Pro A
Koblenz
#11
W
85-75
85
75
+10
H02/10
Pro A
Tubingen
#6
L
61-86
61
86
-25
A04/10
Pro A
Kirchheim
#2
L
65-92
65
92
-27
H10/10
Pro A
Gottingen
#9
L
74-95
74
95
-21
A17/10
Pro A
Artland
#14
W
84-77
84
77
+7
H25/10
Pro A
Koln
#8
W
112-87
112
87
+25
A28/10
Pro A
Bremerhaven
#7
L
75-82
75
82
-7
A31/10
Pro A
Wolmirstedt
#3
L
68-70
68
70
-2
H08/11
Pro A
Giessen
#5
L
57-83
57
83
-26
A13/11
Pro A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-18
22-25
20-16
23-20
30-16
18-25
18-16
19-18
15-26
19-15
15-18
12-27
17-22
10-21
21-27
17-22
21-15
14-28
21-23
18-29
21-16
20-18
15-28
28-15
41-20
21-25
22-26
28-16
13-18
19-22
17-16
26-26
20-18
16-17
17-11
15-24
15-21
19-20
7-25
16-17
159.0Avg total
76.4Scored
82.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)76.482.6159.0-6.240%
Season at home (4)75.578.5154.0-3.050%
Season away (6)77.085.3162.3-8.333%
Last 10 (10)76.482.6159.0-6.240%
Last 5 (5)79.279.8159.0-0.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)70.682.7153.3-12.130%
vs Similar ◀ (9)79.885.2165.0-5.422%
vs Weaker (11)88.775.8164.5+12.964%
This opponent (Bayreuth) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BayreuthGermanyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bochum
#11
W
103-88
103
88
+15
H02/05
Pro A
Koblenz
#11
L
90-109
90
109
-19
A27/09
Pro A
PS Karlsruhe
#12
L
79-89
79
89
-10
H02/10
Pro A
Kirchheim
#2
L
75-104
75
104
-29
A04/10
Pro A
OrangeAcademy
#15
L
89-100
89
100
-11
H14/10
Pro A
Artland
#14
L
86-97
86
97
-11
H17/10
Pro A
Koln
#8
L
98-105
98
105
-7
A25/10
Pro A
Bochum
#16
W
98-83
98
83
+15
H30/10
Pro A
Paderborn
#10
L
98-100 OT
98
100
-2
A08/11
Pro A
Heidelberg
#4
L
76-87
76
87
-11
H13/11
Pro A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-17
28-28
28-24
25-19
24-30
18-27
28-27
20-25
17-23
23-17
14-22
25-27
17-24
17-26
26-21
15-33
20-32
20-27
31-27
18-14
18-27
20-20
24-28
24-22
18-24
23-35
28-21
29-25
17-23
18-24
29-16
34-20
27-18
29-20
16-28
12-18
15-24
27-26
12-19
22-18
185.4Avg total
89.2Scored
96.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)87.797.1184.8-9.411%
Season at home (5)85.691.2176.8-5.620%
Season away (4)90.2104.5194.8-14.20%
Last 10 (10)89.296.2185.4-7.020%
Last 5 (5)91.294.4185.6-3.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)84.192.9177.1-8.829%
vs Similar ◀ (12)86.982.7169.6+4.250%
vs Weaker (4)81.587.8169.2-6.250%
This opponent (Nurnberger) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 166.5
Over 166.5
52.6%
@ 1.47-9.6pp
Under 166.5
47.4%
@ 2.42+9.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.42
Over/Under 171.75 · main line
Over 171.75
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under 171.75
no forecast
@ 1.82
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.80
Under
1xBet
1.82
Over/Under 176.5
Over 176.5
29.6%
@ 2.32-10.0pp
Under 176.5
70.4%
@ 1.52+10.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.32
Under
Betano
1.52

📊 3. Team Totals

Nurnberger total 85.5
Over 85.5
56.0%
@ 1.42-8.1pp
Under 85.5
44.0%
@ 2.60+8.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.38
Under
Betano
2.60
1xBet
2.41
Nurnberger total 89.5 · main line
Over 89.5
40.4%
@ 1.83-10.2pp
Under 89.5
59.6%
@ 1.88+10.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.83
Marathon Be
1.81
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.70
Under
BetVictor
1.88
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.74
Nurnberger total 93.5
Over 93.5
26.2%
@ 2.50-10.8pp
Under 93.5
73.8%
@ 1.45+10.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.34
Under
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.39
Bayreuth total 78
Over 78
60.7%
Under 78
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bayreuth total 82 · main line
Over 82
44.7%
@ 1.82-5.7pp
Under 82
55.3%
@ 1.84+5.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.82
1xBet
1.70
Under
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.74
Bayreuth total 86
Over 86
29.9%
Under 86
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Nurnberger -10.5
NURN -10.5
35.1%
@ 2.25-4.9pp
BAR +10.5
64.9%
@ 1.55+4.9pp
Best 5 market prices
NURN
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.25
BAR
Betano
1.55
Marathon Be
1.53
1xBet
1.46
Spread Nurnberger -7.5 · main line
NURN -7.5
45.8%
@ 1.86-4.5pp
BAR +7.5
54.2%
@ 1.88+4.5pp
Best 5 market prices
NURN
Pinnacle
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
BAR
Pinnacle
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathon Be
1.84
Betano
1.83
Spread Nurnberger -4.5
NURN -4.5
57.2%
@ 1.55-2.8pp
BAR +4.5
42.8%
@ 2.27+2.8pp
Best 5 market prices
NURN
Betano
1.55
Marathon Be
1.53
1xBet
1.46
BAR
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.25

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.1+2.1Q1: -4.7-4.7Q2Q2: -3.8-3.8Q2: -2.7-2.7Q3Q3: -3.3-3.3Q3: +0.3+0.3Q4Q4: -1.2-1.2Q4: +0.3+0.3
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.1+2.1Q1: -4.7-4.7Q2Q2: -3.8-3.8Q2: -2.7-2.7Q3Q3: -3.3-3.3Q3: +0.3+0.3Q4Q4: -1.2-1.2Q4: +0.3+0.3
NurnbergerBayreuth
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NurnbergerLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
PS Karlsruhe
#12
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A26/09
Pro A
Koblenz
#11
W
48-41
48
41
+7
H02/10
Pro A
Tubingen
#6
L
34-41
34
41
-7
A04/10
Pro A
Kirchheim
#2
L
27-43
27
43
-16
H10/10
Pro A
Gottingen
#9
L
35-43
35
43
-8
A17/10
Pro A
Artland
#14
W
41-34
41
34
+7
H25/10
Pro A
Koln
#8
W
62-45
62
45
+17
A28/10
Pro A
Bremerhaven
#7
L
32-40
32
40
-8
A31/10
Pro A
Wolmirstedt
#3
W
36-35
36
35
+1
H08/11
Pro A
Giessen
#5
L
34-41
34
41
-7
A13/11
Pro A
79.5Avg total
38.9Scored
40.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 85.75
Last 30 (30)41.040.281.2+0.950%30%
Last 30 at home (15)41.140.081.1+1.153%40%
Last 30 away (15)41.040.381.3+0.747%20%
Last 10 (10)38.940.679.5-1.740%20%
Last 5 (5)41.039.080.0+2.060%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)35.840.075.8-4.240%10%
vs Similar ◀ (9)42.143.885.9-1.733%33%
vs Weaker (11)44.937.482.3+7.573%45%
This opponent (Bayreuth) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BayreuthLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bochum
#11
W
50-45
50
45
+5
H02/05
Pro A
Koblenz
#11
L
42-57
42
57
-15
A27/09
Pro A
PS Karlsruhe
#12
D
40-40
40
40
+0
H02/10
Pro A
Kirchheim
#2
L
34-50
34
50
-16
A04/10
Pro A
OrangeAcademy
#15
L
40-59
40
59
-19
H14/10
Pro A
Artland
#14
L
38-47
38
47
-9
H17/10
Pro A
Koln
#8
L
41-59
41
59
-18
A25/10
Pro A
Bochum
#16
L
35-47
35
47
-12
H30/10
Pro A
Paderborn
#10
W
56-38
56
38
+18
A08/11
Pro A
Heidelberg
#4
L
42-50
42
50
-8
H13/11
Pro A
91.0Avg total
41.8Scored
49.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 85.75
Last 30 (30)39.844.283.9-4.430%40%
Last 30 at home (14)42.045.087.0-3.029%50%
Last 30 away (16)37.843.481.2-5.631%31%
Last 10 (10)41.849.291.0-7.420%60%
Last 5 (5)42.448.290.6-5.820%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)39.146.385.4-7.121%50%
vs Similar ◀ (12)40.241.081.2-0.842%25%
vs Weaker (4)40.846.287.0-5.525%50%
This opponent (Nurnberger) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
NURN win
no forecast
@ 1.42
BAR win
no forecast
@ 2.98
1st half Spread Nurnberger -4 · main line
NURN -4
no forecast
@ 1.86
BAR +4
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Over/Under 85.75 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.81
Nurnberger 1st half total 44.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.81
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
Bayreuth 1st half total 41 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.81
1st half Over/Under 84.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 2.09
1st half Spread Nurnberger -5
NURN -5
no forecast
@ 2.02
BAR +5
no forecast
@ 1.72
1st half Spread Nurnberger -3
NURN -3
no forecast
@ 1.73
BAR +3
no forecast
@ 2.08
1st half Over/Under 87.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.12
Under
no forecast
@ 1.67
1st half Over/Under 82.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.62
Under
no forecast
@ 2.22
1st half Spread Nurnberger -6.5
NURN -6.5
no forecast
@ 2.30
BAR +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
NURN
no forecast
@ 1.47
Draw
no forecast
@ 16.50
BAR
no forecast
@ 2.82

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
NURN win + total 171.5
🔒 Pro
BAR win + total 171.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: NURN leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: BAR leads at half
🔒 Pro
Team with the highest-scoring quarter
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring half
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Nurnberger under 93.573.8%1.42
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.39
---+10.8pp
Under 176.570.4%1.52
Betano
1.52
----+10.0pp
Bayreuth +15.579.5%1.26
Betano
1.26
----+6.8pp
Bayreuth under 86.571.1%1.40
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.37
---+6.7pp
Nurnberger win70.9%1.27
Bet365
1.31
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Marathon Bet
1.28
WilliamHill
1.25
-3.2pp
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■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
🔒 8 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Nurnbergertheir own shots, last 10 games
No box scores for this team yet.
Bayreuththeir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Bayreuth: 80.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀40%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.0 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.9 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.1 pts a game · 18% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers30.016.0
53.3%
-32.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.811.3
37.9%
-33.9
🏀 Free throws19.814.1
71.2%
-14.1
They take 59.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Nurnberger wins
5
Bayreuth wins
DateGameScore
06/02/26Bayreuth v Nurnberger96-68
23/11/25Nurnberger v Bayreuth90-89
29/03/25Nurnberger v Bayreuth87-95
01/12/24Bayreuth v Nurnberger86-72
03/03/24Nurnberger v Bayreuth95-97 OT
26/12/23Bayreuth v Nurnberger92-73
Nurnbergerlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26AGiessen57-83
08/11/26HWolmirstedt68-70
31/10/26ABremerhaven75-82
28/10/26AKoln112-87
25/10/26HArtland84-77
17/10/26AGottingen74-95
10/10/26HKirchheim65-92
04/10/26ATubingen61-86
02/10/26HKoblenz85-75
26/09/26APS Karlsruhe83-79
Bayreuthlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26HHeidelberg76-87
08/11/26APaderborn98-100 OT
30/10/26HBochum98-83
25/10/26AKoln98-105
17/10/26HArtland86-97
14/10/26HOrangeAcademy89-100
04/10/26AKirchheim75-104
02/10/26HPS Karlsruhe79-89
27/09/26AKoblenz90-109
02/05/26HBochum103-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nurnberger
Pro A 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL40%
HomeWLWL50%
AwayLLWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1046
Win %40%50%33%
Points / game76.475.577.0
Allowed / game82.678.585.3
Point differential-6.2-3.0-8.3
Avg total159.0154.0162.3
Over 171.7510%0%17%
Win by 10+20%25%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)0% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Bayreuth
Pro A 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL11%
HomeLLLWL20%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %11%20%0%
Points / game87.785.690.2
Allowed / game97.191.2104.5
Point differential-9.4-5.6-14.2
Avg total184.8176.8194.8
Over 171.7578%60%100%
Win by 10+11%20%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %11%0%25%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Crailsheim Merlins98189%82.468.1+14.3
2 Kirchheim98189%91.977.7+14.2
3 Wolmirstedt98189%78.771.4+7.2
4 Heidelberg97278%82.271.3+10.9
5 Giessen95456%80.275.8+4.4
6 Tubingen95456%81.080.0+1.0
7 Bremerhaven95456%80.783.3-2.7
8 Koln105550%82.990.0-7.1
9 Gottingen94544%83.680.7+2.9
10 Paderborn94544%82.180.9+1.2
11 Koblenz94544%83.885.9-2.1
12 PS Karlsruhe94544%78.384.1-5.8
13 Nurnberger104640%76.482.6-6.2
14 Artland93633%83.984.7-0.8
15 OrangeAcademy93633%80.986.0-5.1
16 Bochum92722%79.785.8-6.1
17 ETB Miners92722%83.793.1-9.4
18 Bayreuth91811%87.797.1-9.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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