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Nurnberger vs Bayreuth Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 16:00
Projected 87-81
Projected total 167.9
Final 86-83
21-16 22-27 27-20 16-20
Position#11
Record4-6
FormWWLLL
Points / game76.4
Allowed / game82.6
Vs
71%
29%
■ NURN 71%■ BAR 29%
Pythia win probability
Position#18
Record1-8
FormLLWLL
Points / game87.7
Allowed / game97.1
GermanyPro ARound 10· Kia Metropol Arena
Other2026-27
Meetings · Nurnberger v Bayreuth
15 Nov 2026
NURN86
BAR83
23 Nov 2025
NURN90
BAR89
29 Mar 2025
NURN87
BAR95
03 Mar 2024
NURN95
BAR97
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Nurnberger host Bayreuth in the Pro A on 15 November 2026, with the model favouring the home side at 71% and projecting a 87-81 win. Nurnberger have gone 4-6 this season, averaging 76.4 points and conceding 82.6, and are 13th in the league; at home they are 2-2, scoring 75.5 and allowing 78.5, and have won two of their last five. Bayreuth are 1-8 overall, 87.7 points for and 97.1 against, 18th in the standings, and 0-4 on the road, 90.2 points for and 104.5 against, with one win in their last five. Their recent results include a 98-83 home win over Bochum, a 76-87 loss to Heidelberg and a 98-100 defeat to Paderborn. In the six meetings between the clubs, Bayreuth lead 5-1, most recently beating Nurnberger 96-68 on 6 February 2026. The spread is -7.5 for Nurnberger with a 46% chance to cover, the total is 170.5 with a 43% over probability, and the game has a 5% chance of overtime. The projected score of 87-81 reflects Nurnberger's modest offensive output against Bayreuth's higher-scoring but defensively weaker performance.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nurnberger winWon
70.9%fair 1.41
Best odds1.25
Implied76.6%
Edge-5.8pp
Bayreuth winLost
29.1%fair 3.43
Best odds3.93
Implied23.4%
Edge+5.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 22:22 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NurnbergerGermanyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
PS Karlsruhe
#9
W
83-79
83
79
+4
A26/09
Pro A
Koblenz
#13
W
85-75
85
75
+10
H02/10
Pro A
Tubingen
#7
L
61-86
61
86
-25
A04/10
Pro A
Kirchheim
#1
L
65-92
65
92
-27
H10/10
Pro A
Gottingen
#5
L
74-95
74
95
-21
A17/10
Pro A
Artland
#14
W
84-77
84
77
+7
H25/10
Pro A
Koln
#10
W
112-87
112
87
+25
A28/10
Pro A
Bremerhaven
#8
L
75-82
75
82
-7
A31/10
Pro A
Wolmirstedt
#3
L
68-70
68
70
-2
H08/11
Pro A
Giessen
#6
L
57-83
57
83
-26
A13/11
Pro A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-18
22-25
20-16
23-20
30-16
18-25
18-16
19-18
15-26
19-15
15-18
12-27
17-22
10-21
21-27
17-22
21-15
14-28
21-23
18-29
21-16
20-18
15-28
28-15
41-20
21-25
22-26
28-16
13-18
19-22
17-16
26-26
20-18
16-17
17-11
15-24
15-21
19-20
7-25
16-17
159.0Avg total
76.4Scored
82.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)76.482.6159.0-6.240%
Season at home (4)75.578.5154.0-3.050%
Season away (6)77.085.3162.3-8.333%
Last 10 (10)76.482.6159.0-6.240%
Last 5 (5)79.279.8159.0-0.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)69.083.6152.6-14.622%
vs Similar ◀ (10)80.384.2164.5-3.930%
vs Weaker (11)88.775.8164.5+12.964%
This opponent (Bayreuth) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BayreuthGermanyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bochum
#11
W
103-88
103
88
+15
H02/05
Pro A
Koblenz
#13
L
90-109
90
109
-19
A27/09
Pro A
PS Karlsruhe
#9
L
79-89
79
89
-10
H02/10
Pro A
Kirchheim
#1
L
75-104
75
104
-29
A04/10
Pro A
OrangeAcademy
#16
L
89-100
89
100
-11
H14/10
Pro A
Artland
#14
L
86-97
86
97
-11
H17/10
Pro A
Koln
#10
L
98-105
98
105
-7
A25/10
Pro A
Bochum
#15
W
98-83
98
83
+15
H30/10
Pro A
Paderborn
#12
L
98-100 OT
98
100
-2
A08/11
Pro A
Heidelberg
#4
L
76-87
76
87
-11
H13/11
Pro A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-17
28-28
28-24
25-19
24-30
18-27
28-27
20-25
17-23
23-17
14-22
25-27
17-24
17-26
26-21
15-33
20-32
20-27
31-27
18-14
18-27
20-20
24-28
24-22
18-24
23-35
28-21
29-25
17-23
18-24
29-16
34-20
27-18
29-20
16-28
12-18
15-24
27-26
12-19
22-18
185.4Avg total
89.2Scored
96.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)87.797.1184.8-9.411%
Season at home (5)85.691.2176.8-5.620%
Season away (4)90.2104.5194.8-14.20%
Last 10 (10)89.296.2185.4-7.020%
Last 5 (5)91.294.4185.6-3.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)83.492.1175.6-8.729%
vs Similar ◀ (12)87.883.6171.3+4.250%
vs Weaker (4)81.587.8169.2-6.250%
This opponent (Nurnberger) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 167Actual: Over 167
Over 167
51.4%
Under 167
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 172 · main lineActual: Under 172
Over 172
39.2%
@ 1.87-10.8pp
Under 172
60.8%
@ 1.87+10.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.87
SBO
1.84
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.87
Marathon Be
1.82
1xBet
1.82
SBO
1.80
Over/Under 177Actual: Under 177
Over 177
28.1%
Under 177
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Nurnberger total 85.5Actual: Nurnberger over 85.5
Over 85.5
56.0%
@ 1.42-9.1pp
Under 85.5
44.0%
@ 2.60+9.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.34
Under
Betano
2.60
1xBet
2.56
Nurnberger total 89.5 · main lineActual: Nurnberger under 89.5
Over 89.5
40.4%
@ 1.83-11.9pp
Under 89.5
59.6%
@ 1.98+11.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Marathon Be
1.74
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.64
Under
Betano
1.98
BetVictor
1.91
Marathon Be
1.91
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.81
Nurnberger total 93.5Actual: Nurnberger under 93.5
Over 93.5
26.2%
@ 2.32-13.2pp
Under 93.5
73.8%
@ 1.52+13.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.32
1xBet
2.22
Under
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.43
Bayreuth total 77.5Actual: Bayreuth over 77.5
Over 77.5
62.2%
@ 1.44-1.4pp
Under 77.5
37.8%
@ 2.52+1.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.38
Under
Betano
2.52
1xBet
2.40
Bayreuth total 81.5 · main lineActual: Bayreuth over 81.5
Over 81.5
46.8%
@ 1.85-3.2pp
Under 81.5
53.2%
@ 1.83+3.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.71
Under
Marathon Be
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.73
Bayreuth total 85.5Actual: Bayreuth under 85.5
Over 85.5
32.2%
@ 2.57-4.1pp
Under 85.5
67.8%
@ 1.42+4.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.57
1xBet
2.36
Under
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.39

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Nurnberger -12Actual: Bayreuth +12
NURN -12
29.7%
BAR +12
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
NURN
No market prices yet.
BAR
No market prices yet.
Spread Nurnberger -9 · main lineActual: Bayreuth +9
NURN -9
40.0%
@ 1.86-10.3pp
BAR +9
60.0%
@ 1.88+10.3pp
Best 5 market prices
NURN
Pinnacle
1.86
Marathon Be
1.85
SBO
1.83
BAR
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.85
Marathon Be
1.80
Spread Nurnberger -6Actual: Bayreuth +6
NURN -6
51.5%
@ 1.65-4.7pp
BAR +6
48.5%
@ 2.12+4.7pp
Best 5 market prices
NURN
Pinnacle
1.65
Marathon Be
1.53
BAR
Pinnacle
2.12
Marathon Be
2.08

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.1+2.1Q1: -4.7-4.7Q2Q2: -3.8-3.8Q2: -2.7-2.7Q3Q3: -3.3-3.3Q3: +0.3+0.3Q4Q4: -1.2-1.2Q4: +0.3+0.3
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.1+2.1Q1: -4.7-4.7Q2Q2: -3.8-3.8Q2: -2.7-2.7Q3Q3: -3.3-3.3Q3: +0.3+0.3Q4Q4: -1.2-1.2Q4: +0.3+0.3
NurnbergerBayreuth
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NurnbergerLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
PS Karlsruhe
#9
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A26/09
Pro A
Koblenz
#13
W
48-41
48
41
+7
H02/10
Pro A
Tubingen
#7
L
34-41
34
41
-7
A04/10
Pro A
Kirchheim
#1
L
27-43
27
43
-16
H10/10
Pro A
Gottingen
#5
L
35-43
35
43
-8
A17/10
Pro A
Artland
#14
W
41-34
41
34
+7
H25/10
Pro A
Koln
#10
W
62-45
62
45
+17
A28/10
Pro A
Bremerhaven
#8
L
32-40
32
40
-8
A31/10
Pro A
Wolmirstedt
#3
W
36-35
36
35
+1
H08/11
Pro A
Giessen
#6
L
34-41
34
41
-7
A13/11
Pro A
79.5Avg total
38.9Scored
40.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 86
Last 30 (30)41.040.281.2+0.950%30%
Last 30 at home (15)41.140.081.1+1.153%40%
Last 30 away (15)41.040.381.3+0.747%20%
Last 10 (10)38.940.679.5-1.740%20%
Last 5 (5)41.039.080.0+2.060%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)34.439.974.3-5.433%0%
vs Similar ◀ (10)42.743.586.2-0.840%40%
vs Weaker (11)44.937.482.3+7.573%45%
This opponent (Bayreuth) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BayreuthLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bochum
#11
W
50-45
50
45
+5
H02/05
Pro A
Koblenz
#13
L
42-57
42
57
-15
A27/09
Pro A
PS Karlsruhe
#9
D
40-40
40
40
+0
H02/10
Pro A
Kirchheim
#1
L
34-50
34
50
-16
A04/10
Pro A
OrangeAcademy
#16
L
40-59
40
59
-19
H14/10
Pro A
Artland
#14
L
38-47
38
47
-9
H17/10
Pro A
Koln
#10
L
41-59
41
59
-18
A25/10
Pro A
Bochum
#15
L
35-47
35
47
-12
H30/10
Pro A
Paderborn
#12
W
56-38
56
38
+18
A08/11
Pro A
Heidelberg
#4
L
42-50
42
50
-8
H13/11
Pro A
91.0Avg total
41.8Scored
49.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 86
Last 30 (30)39.844.283.9-4.430%40%
Last 30 at home (14)42.045.087.0-3.029%50%
Last 30 away (16)37.843.481.2-5.631%31%
Last 10 (10)41.849.291.0-7.420%60%
Last 5 (5)42.448.290.6-5.820%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)39.144.984.1-5.821%43%
vs Similar ◀ (12)40.242.682.8-2.442%33%
vs Weaker (4)40.846.287.0-5.525%50%
This opponent (Nurnberger) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Bayreuth win
NURN win
no forecast
@ 1.45
BAR win
no forecast
@ 3.39
1st half Spread Nurnberger -5 · main lineActual: Bayreuth +5
NURN -5
no forecast
@ 1.86
BAR +5
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Over/Under 86 · main linePush
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.86
Nurnberger 1st half total 44.5 · main lineActual: Nurnberger under 44.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.81
Under
no forecast
@ 2.00
Bayreuth 1st half total 40.5 · main lineActual: Bayreuth over 40.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.86
1st half: NURN + total 86.5
NURN & over
no forecast
@ 2.90
NURN & under
no forecast
@ 2.75
1st half: Draw + total 86.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 31.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 31.00
1st half: BAR + total 86.5
BAR & over
no forecast
@ 5.50
BAR & under
no forecast
@ 5.25
1st half Over/Under 84.75Actual: Over 84.75
Over
no forecast
@ 1.72
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
1st half Over/Under 87.5Actual: Under 87.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.15
Under
no forecast
@ 1.65
1st half Spread Nurnberger -6Actual: Bayreuth +6
NURN -6
no forecast
@ 2.04
BAR +6
no forecast
@ 1.71
1st half Spread Nurnberger -4Actual: Bayreuth +4
NURN -4
no forecast
@ 1.86
BAR +4
no forecast
@ 2.06
1st half Over/Under 83.5Actual: Over 83.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.71
Under
no forecast
@ 2.20
1st half Spread Nurnberger -3Actual: Bayreuth +3
NURN -3
no forecast
@ 1.73
BAR +3
no forecast
@ 2.08
1st half Spread Nurnberger -7.5Actual: Bayreuth +7.5
NURN -7.5
no forecast
@ 2.30
BAR +7.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Nurnberger (regulation)
NURN
no forecast
@ 1.45
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
BAR
no forecast
@ 3.20

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
NURN win + total 171.5
🔒 Pro
BAR win + total 171.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: NURN leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: BAR leads at half
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring quarter: 1st half
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring quarter: 2nd half
🔒 Pro
Team with the highest-scoring quarter
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring half
🔒 Pro
Double chance (regulation)
🔒 Pro
Quarters won (NURN:BAR): NURN wins more
🔒 Pro
🔒 12 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Nurnberger under 93.573.8%1.48
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.43
---+13.2ppWon
Nurnberger under 92.570.5%1.56
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.51
---+13.1ppWon
Nurnberger under 94.576.9%1.41
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.37
---+12.9ppWon
Nurnberger under 95.579.8%1.32
1xBet
1.32
----+12.8ppWon
Nurnberger under 96.582.4%1.27
1xBet
1.27
----+12.4ppWon
Bayreuth +15.579.5%1.34
Betano
1.34
----+10.9ppWon
Bayreuth +16.581.8%1.29
Betano
1.29
----+10.9ppWon
Under 176.570.4%1.52
Betano
1.52
----+10.0ppWon
Under 178.574.4%1.42
Betano
1.42
----+10.0ppWon
Under 177.572.4%1.47
Betano
1.47
----+9.9ppWon
Under 179.576.2%1.38
Betano
1.38
----+9.9ppWon
Bayreuth +12.571.3%1.46
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.40
---+9.3ppWon
Bayreuth +13.574.2%1.39
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.33
---+9.1ppWon
Bayreuth +14.576.9%1.31
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.24
---+8.5ppWon
Bayreuth under 86.571.1%1.38
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.33
---+5.7ppWon
Bayreuth under 87.574.2%1.29
1xBet
1.29
----+5.3ppWon
Overtime: no95.4%1.02
Betano
1.02
----+3.5ppWon
Nurnberger win70.9%1.22
WilliamHill
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Bet365
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
-5.8ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Nurnbergertheir own shots, last 10 games
No box scores for this team yet.
Bayreuththeir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Bayreuth: 80.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀40%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.0 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.9 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.1 pts a game · 18% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers30.016.0
53.3%
-32.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.811.3
37.9%
-33.9
🏀 Free throws19.814.1
71.2%
-14.1
They take 59.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Nurnberger wins
5
Bayreuth wins
DateGameScore
06/02/26Bayreuth v Nurnberger96-68
23/11/25Nurnberger v Bayreuth90-89
29/03/25Nurnberger v Bayreuth87-95
01/12/24Bayreuth v Nurnberger86-72
03/03/24Nurnberger v Bayreuth95-97 OT
26/12/23Bayreuth v Nurnberger92-73
Nurnbergerlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26AGiessen57-83
08/11/26HWolmirstedt68-70
31/10/26ABremerhaven75-82
28/10/26AKoln112-87
25/10/26HArtland84-77
17/10/26AGottingen74-95
10/10/26HKirchheim65-92
04/10/26ATubingen61-86
02/10/26HKoblenz85-75
26/09/26APS Karlsruhe83-79
Bayreuthlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26HHeidelberg76-87
08/11/26APaderborn98-100 OT
30/10/26HBochum98-83
25/10/26AKoln98-105
17/10/26HArtland86-97
14/10/26HOrangeAcademy89-100
04/10/26AKirchheim75-104
02/10/26HPS Karlsruhe79-89
27/09/26AKoblenz90-109
02/05/26HBochum103-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nurnberger
Pro A 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL40%
HomeWLWL50%
AwayLLWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1046
Win %40%50%33%
Points / game76.475.577.0
Allowed / game82.678.585.3
Point differential-6.2-3.0-8.3
Avg total159.0154.0162.3
Over 17210%0%17%
Win by 10+20%25%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)0% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Bayreuth
Pro A 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL11%
HomeLLLWL20%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %11%20%0%
Points / game87.785.690.2
Allowed / game97.191.2104.5
Point differential-9.4-5.6-14.2
Avg total184.8176.8194.8
Over 17278%60%100%
Win by 10+11%20%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %11%0%25%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Kirchheim109190%90.176.3+13.8
2 Crailsheim Merlins109190%81.868.3+13.5
3 Wolmirstedt98189%78.771.4+7.2
4 Heidelberg107370%81.071.8+9.2
5 Gottingen105550%83.479.7+3.7
6 Giessen105550%78.174.8+3.3
7 Tubingen105550%79.379.4-0.1
8 Bremerhaven105550%79.783.2-3.5
9 Koln105550%82.990.0-7.1
10 Paderborn94544%82.180.9+1.2
11 Koblenz94544%83.885.9-2.1
12 PS Karlsruhe94544%78.384.1-5.8
13 Nurnberger104640%76.482.6-6.2
14 Artland93633%83.984.7-0.8
15 OrangeAcademy93633%80.986.0-5.1
16 ETB Miners103730%81.989.7-7.8
17 Bochum92722%79.785.8-6.1
18 Bayreuth91811%87.797.1-9.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Nurnberger2122271686
Bayreuth1627202083
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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