Old Dominion faces Longwood on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model designating Old Dominion as the clear favourite at 86% to 14%. Old Dominion has gone 4-0 this season, averaging 76.2 points and allowing 54.5, and has won both of its home games with a 76.0 average and 48.0 points allowed; its last five games include wins over Norfolk State, Bucknell and Regent University. Longwood is 3-1 overall, scoring 94.2 and conceding 67.2, but has lost its only road game, 73-82 to Saint Josephs Hawks, and has won two of its last five, including a 101-45 victory over St. Mary's (MD). The teams have met once before, with Old Dominion winning 62-61 in 2021. Pythia projects an 80-67 score, 147 total points, and a 67% chance that Old Dominion will cover the -7.5 line, while the over on 143.5 has a 58% probability; the game has a 3% chance of overtime. Old Dominion's dominant season numbers and recent home form set the tone for this matchup.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Old Dominion winWon
86.1%fair 1.16
Best odds1.35
Implied71.5%
Edge+14.6pp
Longwood winLost
13.9%fair 7.18
Best odds3.50
Implied28.5%
Edge-14.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 22:25 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Old Dominion) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 138.5Actual: Over 138.5
Over 138.5
69.7%
@ 2.10+24.0pp
Under 138.5
30.3%
@ 1.85-24.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
Pinnacle
2.08
Betano
2.00
Marathon Be
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
Under
SBO
1.85
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
Pinnacle
1.75
Over/Under 143.5 · main lineActual: Over 143.5
Over 143.5
58.2%
@ 3.05+9.1pp
Under 143.5
41.8%
@ 1.92-9.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.05
Betano
2.72
1xBet
1.91
WilliamHill
1.85
SBO
1.81
Under
Marathon Be
1.92
SBO
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.78
Betano
1.39
Over/Under 148.5Actual: Over 148.5
Over 148.5
46.0%
@ 4.20+15.2pp
Under 148.5
54.0%
@ 1.52-15.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.20
Betano
2.35
Under
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.20
📊 3. Team Totals
Old Dominion total 68.5Actual: Old Dominion over 68.5
Over 68.5
no forecast
@ 1.44
Under 68.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Under
1xBet
2.62
Betano
2.42
Old Dominion total 73 · main lineActual: Old Dominion over 73
Over 73
75.8%
@ 1.85+25.8pp
Under 73
24.2%
@ 1.86-25.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Under
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Old Dominion total 77Actual: Old Dominion over 77
Over 77
61.2%
Under 77
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longwood total 62Actual: Longwood over 62
Over 62
70.4%
Under 62
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longwood total 66 · main lineActual: Longwood over 66
Over 66
54.8%
@ 1.85+4.8pp
Under 66
45.2%
@ 1.86-4.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Under
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Longwood total 70Actual: Longwood over 70
Over 70
38.6%
@ 1.87-10.8pp
Under 70
61.4%
@ 1.83+10.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.87
Marathon Be
1.87
Under
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.83
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Old Dominion -9.5Actual: Longwood +9.5
OLD -9.5
60.1%
@ 2.30+17.4pp
LONG +9.5
39.9%
@ 1.67-17.4pp
Best 5 market prices
OLD
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.24
LONG
Marathon Be
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.55
Spread Old Dominion -6.5 · main lineActual: Longwood +6.5
OLD -6.5
70.3%
@ 1.88+19.4pp
LONG +6.5
29.7%
@ 2.00-19.4pp
Best 5 market prices
OLD
Pinnacle
1.88
Bet365
1.86
Betano
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Marathon Be
1.79
LONG
1xBet
2.00
Marathon Be
1.98
SBO
1.96
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Spread Old Dominion -3.5Actual: Old Dominion -3.5
OLD -3.5
79.4%
@ 1.52+18.2pp
LONG +3.5
20.6%
@ 2.40-18.2pp
Best 5 market prices
OLD
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
LONG
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.37
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Old DominionLongwood
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Old DominionLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
34-33
34
33
+1
H16/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
47-40
47
40
+7
A21/02
NCAA
Marshall
#124
L
42-49
42
49
-7
A25/02
NCAA
Georgia State
#332
L
36-42
36
42
-6
A28/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
46-35
46
35
+11
H04/03
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
L
37-39
37
39
-2
A05/03
NCAA
Western Michigan
#103
W
30-24
30
24
+6
H03/11
NCAA
Regent University
#428
W
55-19
55
19
+36
H05/11
NCAA
Bucknell
#398
W
26-25
26
25
+1
A07/11
NCAA
Norfolk State
#235
W
36-24
36
24
+12
A12/11
NCAA
71.9Avg total
38.9Scored
33.0Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 63.5
Last 30 (30)
35.3
33.8
69.1
+1.6
57%
63%
Last 30 at home (13)
35.5
31.9
67.4
+3.5
62%
54%
Last 30 away (17)
35.2
35.2
70.4
+0.1
53%
71%
Last 10 (10)
38.9
33.0
71.9
+5.9
70%
70%
Last 5 (5)
36.8
26.2
63.0
+10.6
80%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)
34.5
36.3
70.8
-1.7
36%
82%
vs Similar ◀ (12)
36.6
33.2
69.8
+3.3
67%
58%
vs Weaker (7)
34.4
30.7
65.1
+3.7
71%
43%
This opponent (Longwood) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (Old Dominion) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Old Dominion win
OLD win
no forecast
@ 1.53
LONG win
no forecast
@ 2.52
2nd half Spread Old Dominion -3.5 · main lineActual: Old Dominion -3.5
OLD -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
LONG +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
2nd half Over/Under 72.5 · main lineActual: Over 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
Old Dominion 2nd half total 39.5 · main lineActual: Old Dominion over 39.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.78
Longwood 2nd half total 34.5 · main lineActual: Longwood under 34.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half Spread Old Dominion -2.5Actual: Old Dominion -2.5
OLD -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
LONG +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
2nd half Over/Under 74.5Actual: Over 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Old Dominion (regulation)
OLD
no forecast
@ 1.57
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.00
LONG
no forecast
@ 2.57
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Old Dominion over 70.5
82.3%
1.67
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.50
-
-
+30.7pp
Won
Old Dominion over 71.5
79.5%
1.84
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
+30.6pp
Won
Old Dominion over 72.5
76.6%
1.92
Pinnacle
2.04
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.86
+30.4pp
Won
Old Dominion over 72
78.9%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+29.2pp
Won
Old Dominion over 73.5
73.4%
1.90
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.87
Bet365
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
+26.3pp
Won
Old Dominion over 73
75.8%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.84
-
-
+25.8pp
Won
Old Dominion over 74.5
70.0%
2.09
1xBet
2.38
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.11
Marathon Bet
1.87
Bet365
1.86
+25.5pp
Won
Over 138
71.2%
1.91
Bet365
2.05
Pinnacle
2.03
Marathon Bet
1.88
1xBet
1.80
SBO
1.78
+24.3pp
Won
Old Dominion over 69.5
84.7%
1.51
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Bet365
1.47
-
-
+23.9pp
Won
Over 137.5
71.8%
1.90
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.97
Betano
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
+23.5pp
Won
Over 137
73.3%
1.88
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.89
SBO
1.78
-
+23.3pp
Won
Over 134
79.2%
1.65
Pinnacle
1.68
Marathon Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.62
-
-
+22.8pp
Won
Over 136
75.4%
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
-
-
+22.3pp
Won
Over 136.5
73.9%
1.84
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.86
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
1xBet
1.80
+22.3pp
Won
Old Dominion over 74
72.5%
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.84
-
-
-
-
+22.2pp
Won
Over 135
77.3%
1.71
Bet365
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.71
-
-
+21.7pp
Won
Over 135.5
75.8%
1.76
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
Bet365
1.74
+21.5pp
Won
Over 134.5
77.7%
1.67
Pinnacle
1.68
Marathon Bet
1.67
Bet365
1.66
Betano
1.65
-
+21.2pp
Won
Over 133
80.9%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+21.2pp
Won
Over 133.5
79.5%
1.58
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
+21.0pp
Won
Over 132.5
81.2%
1.52
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+20.3pp
Won
Old Dominion -6.5
70.3%
1.81
Pinnacle
1.88
Bet365
1.86
Betano
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.79
+19.4pp
Lost
Old Dominion -6
72.6%
1.73
Pinnacle
1.80
Bet365
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
-
+19.4pp
Push
Over 132
82.6%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+19.2pp
Won
Over 131.5
82.9%
1.45
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+19.1pp
Won
Old Dominion -4
78.8%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+19.0pp
Won
Old Dominion -5
75.8%
1.66
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.64
-
-
-
+18.8pp
Won
Old Dominion -4.5
76.5%
1.60
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.60
-
-
-
+18.7pp
Won
Over 131
84.2%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+18.5pp
Won
Old Dominion -5.5
73.5%
1.69
Pinnacle
1.74
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.68
Marathon Bet
1.64
-
+18.4pp
Won
Old Dominion -3.5
79.4%
1.51
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+18.2pp
Won
Over 130
85.6%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+18.1pp
Won
Over 130.5
84.4%
1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+18.0pp
Won
Over 128.5
87.2%
1.33
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
+17.5pp
Won
Over 129.5
85.8%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+17.2pp
Won
Old Dominion -3
81.2%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+17.0pp
Won
Old Dominion -2
84.0%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+17.0pp
Won
Old Dominion -2.5
81.7%
1.42
Bet365
1.43
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+16.8pp
Won
Old Dominion (regulation)
84.3%
1.34
Betano
1.36
Marathon Bet
1.34
1xBet
1.32
-
-
+16.8pp
Won
Old Dominion -1.5
84.4%
1.36
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+16.5pp
Won
Over 129
87.0%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+16.5pp
Won
Old Dominion -1
85.8%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+15.4pp
Won
Old Dominion win
86.1%
1.31
Pinnacle
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Betano
1.33
Marathon Bet
1.32
Bet365
1.32
+14.6pp
Won
Old Dominion +1.5
87.4%
1.26
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+13.5pp
Won
Old Dominion +1
87.3%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+13.5pp
Won
Old Dominion +2.5
89.3%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Won
Longwood over 58.5
80.6%
1.26
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.20
-
-
+9.1pp
Won
Longwood over 61.5
71.4%
1.46
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+8.4pp
Won
Over 123.5
92.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
Old Dominion +7.5
95.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Overtime: no
97.1%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Won
Old Dominion +12.5
97.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
Longwood over 59.5
77.8%
1.29
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Longwood over 60.5
74.7%
1.34
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Longwood over 55.5
87.8%
1.12
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Longwood over 57.5
83.3%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Longwood over 51.5
94.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Longwood over 56.5
85.6%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Longwood over 53.5
91.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Longwood over 52.5
92.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Longwood over 54.5
89.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Longwood under 80.5
89.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
Longwood under 78.5
86.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Won
Old Dominion under 91.5
88.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.4pp
Won
Longwood under 76.5
81.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-5.8pp
Won
Longwood under 74.5
76.3%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-6.0pp
Won
Longwood under 73.5
73.2%
1.20
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-6.2pp
Lost
Longwood +22.5
81.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-6.8pp
Won
Old Dominion under 89.5
83.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-7.6pp
Won
Under 163.5
84.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.3pp
Won
Old Dominion under 87.5
78.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-11.8pp
Won
Under 158.5
76.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-13.5pp
Won
Old Dominion under 85.5
72.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-16.2pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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produce aggregated statistics about visits to our pages. We use these statistics
internally to test and improve the site and to give you a better experience. Without them
our ability to provide a smoother experience may be degraded.
Which pages and predictions are read, how long pages take to
load, and which features are used, including Google Analytics. Reported in
aggregate, never sold, and not used to identify you personally when you are not signed in.
These are off unless you switch them on here or choose "Accept All".
Third Party Marketing/Targeting
Cookies used to deliver adverts relevant to you based on your interests. This can include
limiting the number of times you see an advert as well as helping us measure the
effectiveness of an advert. Without these cookies you will still see adverts, but they
will not be adjusted to your interests.
Set by our advertising partners. Switching these off does not
reduce the number of adverts you see; it only makes them less relevant to you.
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A Pro feature
Filtering, slicing and choosing dates are part of Pro -
unlock every pick, all slicers, Challenger/ITF boards, set scores and games markets.