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Oliveirense vs Vitoria Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 21 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 21:00
Projected 92-79
Projected total 171.1
Scheduled
Position#4
Record4-2
FormLWWLW
Points / game92.2
Allowed / game90.0
Vs
86%
14%
■ OLIV 86%■ VITO 14%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
5.2/10
Around normal
5.1/10
Around normal
Position#9
Record2-5
FormLWLLL
Points / game68.7
Allowed / game83.9
PortugalLPBRound 8· Pavilhão Dr. Salvador Machado
Other2026-27
Meetings · Oliveirense v Vitoria
21 Nov 2026
OLIV v VITO
upcoming
10 Jan 2026
OLIV84
VITO76
25 Oct 2024
OLIV93
VITO76
23 Dec 2023
OLIV80
VITO100
08 Dec 2022
OLIV82
VITO77
01 Nov 2021
OLIV90
VITO69
03 Mar 2021
OLIV101
VITO78
09 Nov 2019
OLIV90
VITO63
10 Mar 2019
OLIV89
VITO66
27 May 2018
OLIV99
VITO68
26 May 2018
OLIV82
VITO70
25 Mar 2018
OLIV100
VITO83
10 Mar 2018
OLIV76
VITO68
01 Apr 2017
OLIV83
VITO87
28 Jan 2017
OLIV67
VITO64
31 Oct 2015
OLIV73
VITO68
08 Nov 2014
OLIV72
VITO84
05 Apr 2014
OLIV69
VITO90
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Oliveirense host Vitoria in the LPB. Pythia makes Oliveirense the favourite at 86% and projects 92-79, about 171 points in all. Overtime chance: 3%. Oliveirense are 4-2 this season (92.2 scored, 90.0 allowed a game), form LWWLW; Vitoria are 2-5 this season (68.7 scored, 83.9 allowed a game), form LWLLL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Oliveirense win
86.0%fair 1.16
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Vitoria win
14.0%fair 7.15
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 20:59 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

OliveirensePortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormOliveirense
Date
Competition
Ovarense
#4
W
69-65
69
65
+4
64avg 77
A16/05
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
76-98
76
98
-22
68avg 77
A21/05
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
61-86
61
86
-25
52avg 77
A23/05
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
78-86
78
86
-8
75avg 77
H28/05
LPB
Portimonense
#11
W
91-82
91
82
+9
82avg 77
A03/10
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
67-92
67
92
-25
49avg 77
A17/10
LPB
Esgueira
#12
W
104-80
104
80
+24
105avg 77
H24/10
LPB
CAB Madeira
#10
W
113-109 OT
113
109
+4
103avg 77
A31/10
LPB
Ovarense
#3
L
87-93
87
93
-6
no box
H07/11
LPB
Braga
#6
W
91-84
91
84
+7
no box
A14/11
LPB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
10-16
17-18
18-18
24-13
17-24
10-29
20-25
29-20
18-17
14-24
16-19
13-26
23-15
23-23
16-25
16-23
34-20
19-19
16-16
22-27
13-21
19-24
18-26
17-21
23-24
32-8
24-20
25-28
21-20
24-25
24-25
21-20
26-16
31-34
19-26
11-17
21-18
20-20
24-25
26-21
171.2Avg total
83.7Scored
87.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)92.290.0182.2+2.267%
Season at home (2)95.586.5182.0+9.050%
Season away (4)90.591.8182.2-1.275%
Last 10 (10)83.787.5171.2-3.850%
Last 5 (5)92.491.6184.0+0.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)77.287.9165.1-10.720%
vs Similar (8)83.482.1165.5+1.262%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)90.882.4173.2+8.475%
This opponent (Vitoria) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VitoriaPortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVitoria
Date
Competition
Esgueira
#8
W
93-87
93
87
+6
83avg 71
H11/04
LPB
Vasco Da Gama
#11
L
89-96
89
96
-7
77avg 71
A18/04
LPB
Oliveirense
#5
W
84-74
84
74
+10
71avg 71
H25/04
LPB
CAB Madeira
#10
W
83-78
83
78
+5
74avg 71
A03/10
LPB
Ovarense
#3
L
71-87
71
87
-16
56avg 71
H10/10
LPB
Braga
#6
L
72-91
72
91
-19
54avg 71
A18/10
LPB
Portimonense
#11
W
74-72
74
72
+2
61avg 71
H24/10
LPB
CD Povoa
#7
L
68-75
68
75
-7
57avg 71
H01/11
LPB
Sporting CP
#5
L
48-91
48
91
-43
no box
A07/11
LPB
FC Porto
#2
L
65-93
65
93
-28
no box
H13/11
LPB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-17
23-15
29-30
20-25
14-28
17-20
24-18
34-30
29-18
15-12
22-17
18-27
14-18
17-24
25-21
27-15
21-17
17-20
9-30
24-20
12-20
18-23
22-26
20-22
24-21
19-13
15-20
16-18
18-12
21-16
14-23
15-24
10-21
11-34
12-22
15-14
16-23
10-26
17-23
22-21
159.1Avg total
74.7Scored
84.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)68.783.9152.6-15.129%
Season at home (4)69.581.8151.2-12.225%
Season away (3)67.786.7154.3-19.033%
Last 10 (10)74.784.4159.1-9.740%
Last 5 (5)65.484.4149.8-19.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)74.588.8163.3-14.425%
vs Similar (6)89.587.2176.7+2.367%
vs Weaker (4)88.590.0178.5-1.525%
This opponent (Oliveirense) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 161
Over 161
73.4%
Under 161
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 166
Over 166
62.2%
Under 166
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 171
Over 171
49.8%
Under 171
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Oliveirense total 81
Over 81
86.7%
Under 81
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oliveirense total 85
Over 85
75.9%
Under 85
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oliveirense total 89
Over 89
61.3%
Under 89
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vitoria total 77.5
Over 77.5
56.8%
Under 77.5
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vitoria total 81.5
Over 81.5
41.1%
Under 81.5
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vitoria total 85.5
Over 85.5
27.0%
Under 85.5
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Oliveirense -3
OLIV -3
81.2%
VITO +3
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
OLIV
No market prices yet.
VITO
No market prices yet.
Spread Oliveirense 0
OLIV 0
86.0%
VITO 0
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
OLIV
No market prices yet.
VITO
No market prices yet.
Spread Oliveirense +3
OLIV +3
90.5%
VITO -3
9.5%
Best 5 market prices
OLIV
No market prices yet.
VITO
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +1.5+1.5Q1: -1.6-1.6Q2Q2: -1.5-1.5Q2: -3.5-3.5Q3Q3: -3.0-3.0Q3: -4.1-4.1Q4Q4: -1.2-1.2Q4: -0.5-0.5
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +1.5+1.5Q1: -1.6-1.6Q2Q2: -1.5-1.5Q2: -3.5-3.5Q3Q3: -3.0-3.0Q3: -4.1-4.1Q4Q4: -1.2-1.2Q4: -0.5-0.5
OliveirenseVitoria
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
OliveirenseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ovarense
#4
L
27-34
27
34
-7
A16/05
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
27-53
27
53
-26
A21/05
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
32-41
32
41
-9
A23/05
LPB
Benfica
#1
W
46-38
46
38
+8
H28/05
LPB
Portimonense
#11
W
53-39
53
39
+14
A03/10
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
32-45
32
45
-13
A17/10
LPB
Esgueira
#12
W
55-32
55
32
+23
H24/10
LPB
CAB Madeira
#10
D
45-45
45
45
+0
A31/10
LPB
Ovarense
#3
W
57-50
57
50
+7
H07/11
LPB
Braga
#6
W
41-38
41
38
+3
A14/11
LPB
83.0Avg total
41.5Scored
41.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.341.484.8+1.960%-
Last 30 at home (13)48.841.990.7+6.885%-
Last 30 away (17)39.241.180.2-1.941%-
Last 10 (10)41.541.583.0+0.050%-
Last 5 (5)46.042.088.0+4.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)39.642.882.4-3.250%-
vs Similar (8)43.642.285.9+1.462%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)46.239.886.0+6.567%-
This opponent (Vitoria) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VitoriaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Esgueira
#8
W
44-32
44
32
+12
H11/04
LPB
Vasco Da Gama
#11
L
31-48
31
48
-17
A18/04
LPB
Oliveirense
#5
W
44-30
44
30
+14
H25/04
LPB
CAB Madeira
#10
L
31-42
31
42
-11
A03/10
LPB
Ovarense
#3
W
38-37
38
37
+1
H10/10
LPB
Braga
#6
L
30-43
30
43
-13
A18/10
LPB
Portimonense
#11
W
43-34
43
34
+9
H24/10
LPB
CD Povoa
#7
W
39-28
39
28
+11
H01/11
LPB
Sporting CP
#5
L
21-55
21
55
-34
A07/11
LPB
FC Porto
#2
L
26-49
26
49
-23
H13/11
LPB
74.5Avg total
34.7Scored
39.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.643.082.6-3.340%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.339.079.3+1.362%-
Last 30 away (14)38.947.586.4-8.614%-
Last 10 (10)34.739.874.5-5.150%-
Last 5 (5)31.841.873.6-10.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)37.543.080.5-5.535%-
vs Similar (6)44.742.787.3+2.050%-
vs Weaker (4)42.843.286.0-0.550%-
This opponent (Oliveirense) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Oliveirensetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Oliveirense: 82.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.6 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.8 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.2 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.8 points a game
49%
32%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.921.8
54.6%
51.1%43.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.37.6
27.8%
31.9%22.8
🏀 Free throws21.816.2
74.3%
71.1%16.2
They take 67.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Vitoriatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Vitoria: 79.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.5 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.4 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.8 points a game
49%
32%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.020.1
46.7%
51.1%40.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.87.5
29.1%
31.9%22.5
🏀 Free throws26.816.4
61.2%
71.1%16.4
They take 68.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Oliveirense
WLWWLWLLLW
Vitoria
LLLWLLWWLW
#4
League position
#9
-0.9
Net rating
-5.3
89.7
Offensive rating
83.7
90.6
Defensive rating
88.9
49.4%
Effective FG%
45.6%
50.0%
Opp. effective FG%
50.1%
17.4%
Turnover %
14.7%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.39
27.8%
3-point %
29.1%
60.9%
Assist %
55.8%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence89.7 · 83.7Defence90.6 · 88.9Shooting49.4% · 45.6%3-point %27.8% · 29.1%Ball care17.4% · 14.7%Free throws0.32 · 0.39Form (last 10/10)50% · 40%
■ Oliveirense   ■ Vitoria
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Oliveirense wins
2
Vitoria wins
DateGameScore
25/04/26Vitoria v Oliveirense84-74
10/01/26Oliveirense v Vitoria84-76
11/01/25Vitoria v Oliveirense74-92
25/10/24Oliveirense v Vitoria93-76
27/04/24Vitoria v Oliveirense77-94
23/12/23Oliveirense v Vitoria80-100
08/12/22Oliveirense v Vitoria82-77
24/09/22Vitoria v Oliveirense86-104
06/03/22Vitoria v Oliveirense69-85
01/11/21Oliveirense v Vitoria90-69
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ABraga91-84
07/11/26HOvarense87-93
31/10/26ACAB Madeira113-109 OT
24/10/26HEsgueira104-80
17/10/26ABenfica67-92
03/10/26APortimonense91-82
28/05/26HBenfica78-86
23/05/26ABenfica61-86
21/05/26ABenfica76-98
16/05/26AOvarense69-65
Vitorialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26HFC Porto65-93
07/11/26ASporting CP48-91
01/11/26HCD Povoa68-75
24/10/26HPortimonense74-72
18/10/26ABraga72-91
10/10/26HOvarense71-87
03/10/26ACAB Madeira83-78
25/04/26HOliveirense84-74
18/04/26AVasco Da Gama89-96
11/04/26HEsgueira93-87

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Oliveirense
LPB 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW67%
HomeWL50%
AwayWLWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games624
Win %67%50%75%
Points / game92.295.590.5
Allowed / game90.086.591.8
Point differential+2.2+9.0-1.2
Avg total182.2182.0182.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %17%0%25%
Vitoria
LPB 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL29%
HomeLWLL25%
AwayWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %29%25%33%
Points / game68.769.567.7
Allowed / game83.981.886.7
Point differential-15.1-12.2-19.0
Avg total152.6151.2154.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Benfica76186%88.373.6+14.7
2 FC Porto76186%91.681.6+10.0
3 Ovarense76186%84.476.9+7.6
4 Oliveirense64267%92.290.0+2.2
5 Sporting CP74357%83.674.6+9.0
6 Braga74357%88.181.1+7.0
7 CD Povoa74357%75.075.3-0.3
8 CA Queluz63350%87.891.7-3.8
9 Vitoria72529%68.783.9-15.1
10 CAB Madeira71614%82.786.4-3.7
11 Portimonense71614%78.789.0-10.3
12 Esgueira7070%80.397.7-17.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
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