Partizan will host Valencia on 17 November 2026 in a EuroLeague clash that the Pythia model predicts to be low-scoring, with both teams' defenses poised to limit points; the model projects a close 84-86 finish. Partizan, 6-5 overall, averages 79.5 points and allows 77.7, sits 11th in the league and has a 4-1 home record with 80.0 points scored and 72.6 allowed at home, winning four of its last five games and recently beating Baskonia 80-66, Studentski Centar 92-80 and Maccabi Tel Aviv 88-67. Valencia, 7-3 overall, posts 95.8 points and 89.1 allowed, ranks third, and is 4-1 on the road with 96.6 points and 90.0 allowed, also winning four of its last five games and recently defeating San Pablo Burgos 100-93, Olimpia Milano 84-73 and MoraBanc Andorra 111-79. In their eight meetings, Valencia has won five, most recently Partizan edged them 110-104 on 27 March 2026. Pythia gives Valencia a 57% chance to win against Partizan's 43%, names Valencia the favourite, and sees a 1.5-point spread with a 46% chance of the home team covering; the 175.5-point total carries a 34% over probability and a 5% chance of overtime, while the projected total is 169.2 points. The game will hinge on whether Partizan can hold Valencia's high-scoring offence to the model's 86-point ceiling.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Partizan win
42.9%fair 2.33
Best odds2.05
Implied47.3%
Edge-4.4pp
Valencia win
57.1%fair 1.75
Best odds1.82
Implied52.7%
Edge+4.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 08 Nov 07:34 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Partizan) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 169 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 165-169 (12%). The market's main line is 175.5.
Over/Under 170.5
Over 170.5
45.9%
@ 1.51-14.3pp
Under 170.5
54.1%
@ 2.29+14.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.51
Marathon Be
1.51
Under
1xBet
2.29
Marathon Be
2.29
Over/Under 175.5 · main line
Over 175.5
34.3%
@ 1.92-15.8pp
Under 175.5
65.7%
@ 1.94+15.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.92
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.87
Under
1xBet
1.94
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.89
Betano
1.82
Over/Under 180.5
Over 180.5
24.2%
@ 2.44-13.1pp
Under 180.5
75.8%
@ 1.52+13.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.44
Under
Marathon Be
1.52
1xBet
1.45
📊 3. Team Totals
Partizan total 83.5
Over 83.5
50.0%
Under 83.5
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizan total 87.5 · main line
Over 87.5
35.1%
@ 1.88-14.6pp
Under 87.5
64.9%
@ 1.86+14.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.88
Marathon Be
1.88
Under
1xBet
1.86
Marathon Be
1.86
Partizan total 91.5
Over 91.5
22.4%
Under 91.5
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valencia total 84.5
Over 84.5
54.1%
Under 84.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valencia total 88.5 · main line
Over 88.5
38.4%
@ 1.87-11.6pp
Under 88.5
61.6%
@ 1.87+11.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.87
Marathon Be
1.87
Under
1xBet
1.87
Marathon Be
1.87
Valencia total 92.5
Over 92.5
24.5%
Under 92.5
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Partizan's side (positive = Partizan win). Pythia's expected margin is -2.0; Partizan win by 1+ in 38% of simulations.
Spread Partizan -1.5
PAR -1.5
40.1%
@ 2.14-3.6pp
VAL +1.5
59.9%
@ 1.66+3.6pp
Best 5 market prices
PAR
1xBet
2.14
Marathon Be
2.14
VAL
1xBet
1.66
Marathon Be
1.66
Spread Partizan +1.5 · main line
PAR +1.5
45.8%
@ 1.93-4.2pp
VAL -1.5
54.2%
@ 1.93+4.2pp
Best 5 market prices
PAR
1xBet
1.93
Marathon Be
1.90
Betano
1.83
Betfair
1.83
VAL
1xBet
1.93
Marathon Be
1.90
Betano
1.85
Betfair
1.83
Spread Partizan +4.5
PAR +4.5
57.6%
@ 1.54-2.1pp
VAL -4.5
42.4%
@ 2.28+2.1pp
Best 5 market prices
PAR
1xBet
1.54
Marathon Be
1.54
VAL
1xBet
2.28
Marathon Be
2.28
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
PartizanValencia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PartizanLast 10 – 1st quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
KK Bosna
#7
W
24-20
24
20
+4
A18/10
ABA League
Crvena zvezda
#6
W
31-21
31
21
+10
H22/10
Euroleague
Spartak Subotica
#6
W
23-15
23
15
+8
A24/10
ABA League
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#15
L
19-22
19
22
-3
A28/10
Euroleague
Zalgiris Kaunas
#8
L
21-27
21
27
-6
A30/10
Euroleague
Cluj-Napoca
#12
W
34-18
34
18
+16
H02/11
ABA League
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
W
28-23
28
23
+5
H06/11
Euroleague
Studentski Centar
#20
L
16-25
16
25
-9
H08/11
ABA League
Baskonia
#20
W
23-18
23
18
+5
H11/11
Euroleague
Zadar
#13
L
23-27
23
27
-4
A14/11
ABA League
45.8Avg total
24.2Scored
21.6Allowed
1st quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 44.5
Last 30 (30)
22.3
20.1
42.5
+2.2
57%
33%
Last 30 at home (16)
23.0
19.2
42.2
+3.8
69%
31%
Last 30 away (14)
21.6
21.1
42.7
+0.4
43%
36%
Last 10 (10)
24.2
21.6
45.8
+2.6
60%
50%
Last 5 (5)
24.8
22.2
47.0
+2.6
60%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)
19.0
23.0
42.0
-4.0
0%
67%
vs Similar (11)
24.2
19.5
43.7
+4.6
73%
36%
vs Weaker (16)
21.7
20.0
41.7
+1.7
56%
25%
This opponent (Valencia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValenciaLast 10 – 1st quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
L
23-31
23
31
-8
H15/10
Euroleague
Murcia
#11
W
25-14
25
14
+11
H18/10
ACB
Paris
#14
W
32-26
32
26
+6
A23/10
Euroleague
Baskonia
#4
W
27-19
27
19
+8
H25/10
ACB
Fenerbahce
#7
W
19-9
19
9
+10
H27/10
Euroleague
Barcelona
#4
L
25-30
25
30
-5
A30/10
Euroleague
MoraBanc Andorra
#18
L
20-21
20
21
-1
A01/11
ACB
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
24-15
24
15
+9
A05/11
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
L
22-27
22
27
-5
A08/11
ACB
Bayern
#18
W
29-19
29
19
+10
H12/11
Euroleague
45.7Avg total
24.6Scored
21.1Allowed
1st quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 44.5
Last 30 (30)
24.5
19.6
44.1
+4.9
70%
50%
Last 30 at home (15)
25.2
17.2
42.4
+8.0
80%
47%
Last 30 away (15)
23.8
22.1
45.9
+1.7
60%
53%
Last 10 (10)
24.6
21.1
45.7
+3.5
60%
60%
Last 5 (5)
24.0
22.4
46.4
+1.6
40%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger
no games
vs Similar (3)
25.7
15.0
40.7
+10.7
100%
67%
vs Weaker ◀ (27)
24.4
20.1
44.5
+4.2
67%
48%
This opponent (Partizan) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st quarter bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
Q1 Spread Partizan +1 · main line
PAR +1
54.4%
@ 1.81+2.8pp
VAL -1
45.6%
@ 1.93-2.8pp
Q1 Over/Under 44.5 · main line
Over
39.0%
@ 1.90-10.2pp
Under
61.0%
@ 1.84+10.2pp
Partizan 1st quarter total 21.5 · main line
Over
47.3%
@ 1.82-4.1pp
Under
52.7%
@ 1.92+4.1pp
Valencia 1st quarter total 22.5 · main line
Over
41.2%
@ 1.89-8.3pp
Under
58.8%
@ 1.85+8.3pp
Q1 Spread Partizan 0
PAR 0
48.4%
@ 1.98+1.2pp
VAL 0
51.6%
@ 1.77-1.2pp
Q1 Over/Under 42.5
Over
50.3%
@ 1.61-7.1pp
Under
49.7%
@ 2.17+7.1pp
1st quarter 3-way (draw possible)
PAR
45.6%
@ 2.09+1.8pp
Draw
5.7%
@ 14.25-0.7pp
VAL
48.7%
@ 1.84-1.1pp
1st quarter double chance
PAR or draw
51.3%
@ 1.83
PAR or VAL
94.3%
Draw or VAL
54.4%
@ 1.63
PartizanLast 10 – 2nd quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
KK Bosna
#7
L
15-18
15
18
-3
A18/10
ABA League
Crvena zvezda
#6
W
21-17
21
17
+4
H22/10
Euroleague
Spartak Subotica
#6
L
22-24
22
24
-2
A24/10
ABA League
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#15
L
13-14
13
14
-1
A28/10
Euroleague
Zalgiris Kaunas
#8
W
19-17
19
17
+2
A30/10
Euroleague
Cluj-Napoca
#12
L
23-31
23
31
-8
H02/11
ABA League
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
W
22-12
22
12
+10
H06/11
Euroleague
Studentski Centar
#20
W
26-22
26
22
+4
H08/11
ABA League
Baskonia
#20
L
19-20
19
20
-1
H11/11
Euroleague
Zadar
#13
L
10-26
10
26
-16
A14/11
ABA League
39.1Avg total
19.0Scored
20.1Allowed
2nd quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 43.5
Last 30 (30)
20.8
20.2
41.0
+0.6
50%
43%
Last 30 at home (16)
21.9
19.8
41.8
+2.1
56%
38%
Last 30 away (14)
19.4
20.6
40.1
-1.2
43%
50%
Last 10 (10)
19.0
20.1
39.1
-1.1
40%
30%
Last 5 (5)
20.0
22.2
42.2
-2.2
40%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)
16.3
22.3
38.7
-6.0
0%
33%
vs Similar (11)
20.1
19.6
39.7
+0.5
45%
36%
vs Weaker (16)
22.1
20.2
42.2
+1.9
62%
50%
This opponent (Valencia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValenciaLast 10 – 2nd quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
W
25-19
25
19
+6
H15/10
Euroleague
Murcia
#11
W
33-22
33
22
+11
H18/10
ACB
Paris
#14
L
25-28
25
28
-3
A23/10
Euroleague
Baskonia
#4
L
14-16
14
16
-2
H25/10
ACB
Fenerbahce
#7
W
17-16
17
16
+1
H27/10
Euroleague
Barcelona
#4
W
17-14
17
14
+3
A30/10
Euroleague
MoraBanc Andorra
#18
W
26-18
26
18
+8
A01/11
ACB
Olimpia Milano
#19
L
16-22
16
22
-6
A05/11
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
L
19-25
19
25
-6
A08/11
ACB
Bayern
#18
W
23-22
23
22
+1
H12/11
Euroleague
41.7Avg total
21.5Scored
20.2Allowed
2nd quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 43.5
Last 30 (30)
22.6
21.5
44.1
+1.2
57%
60%
Last 30 at home (15)
23.9
22.4
46.3
+1.5
60%
67%
Last 30 away (15)
21.3
20.5
41.9
+0.8
53%
53%
Last 10 (10)
21.5
20.2
41.7
+1.3
60%
60%
Last 5 (5)
20.2
20.2
40.4
+0.0
60%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger
no games
vs Similar (3)
19.7
16.3
36.0
+3.3
67%
33%
vs Weaker ◀ (27)
23.0
22.0
45.0
+0.9
56%
63%
This opponent (Partizan) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd quarter bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
This opponent (Partizan) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half Spread Partizan 0 · main line
PAR 0
45.3%
@ 1.88-4.5pp
VAL 0
54.7%
@ 1.86+4.5pp
2nd half Over/Under 86.5 · main line
Over
39.2%
@ 1.86-11.0pp
Under
60.8%
@ 1.88+11.0pp
Partizan 2nd half total 43 · main line
Over
39.6%
@ 1.86-10.7pp
Under
60.4%
@ 1.88+10.7pp
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)
PAR
43.3%
@ 1.95-3.7pp
Draw
4.4%
@ 17.25-1.0pp
VAL
52.3%
@ 1.92+4.7pp
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
They take 61.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 73.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Partizantheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Partizan: 75.5 points a game allowed
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.8 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.4 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.3 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
38.7
19.9
51.4%
55.2%
39.8
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
20.9
6.8
32.5%
35.7%
20.4
🏀Free throws
19.9
15.3
76.9%
77.1%
15.3
Their opponents take 59.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 20.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of those shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Valenciatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Valencia: 88.0 points a game allowed
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.7 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.9 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
38.2
21.7
56.8%
55.2%
43.4
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
28.4
9.9
34.9%
35.7%
29.7
🏀Free throws
19.0
14.9
78.4%
77.1%
14.9
Their opponents take 66.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of those shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
They take 58.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 69.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Partizantheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Partizan: 73.3 points a game allowed
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.3 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.2 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.7 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
33.5
18.2
54.3%
55.2%
36.3
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
24.0
8.1
33.6%
35.7%
24.2
🏀Free throws
16.2
12.7
78.4%
77.1%
12.7
Their opponents take 57.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of those shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Valenciatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Valencia: 109.8 points a game allowed
🏀🏀
🏀🏀🏀97%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers-10.6 pts a game · -10% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers106.5 pts a game · 97% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.9 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
36.0
-5.3
-14.7%
55.2%
-10.6
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
29.3
35.5
121.0%
35.7%
106.5
🏀Free throws
21.6
13.9
64.5%
77.1%
13.9
Their opponents take 65.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of those shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 17 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Partizan
LWWWWLLWWW
Valencia
WWWWLWWWWL
#11
League position
#3
-0.9
Net rating
+8.9
92.6
Offensive rating
108.3
93.5
Defensive rating
99.4
50.6%
Effective FG%
54.8%
50.5%
Opp. effective FG%
54.9%
14.6%
Turnover %
8.8%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.28
28.6%
3-point %
34.6%
71.0%
Assist %
51.0%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
80%
Profile
■ Partizan■ Valencia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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