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Penn State vs New Haven Chargers Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 21:30
Projected 78-66
Projected total 144.4
Scheduled
Position#179
Record3-2
FormWWLLW
Points / game77.6
Allowed / game75.6
Penn State
USA
Vs
86%
14%
■ PENN 86%■ NEW 14%
Pythia win probability
New Haven Chargers
USA
Position#291
Record1-2
FormLWLLW
Points / game58.3
Allowed / game70.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Penn State faces the New Haven Chargers on 15 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Penn State the clear favourite, rating them 86% to win largely because of their 3-2 season record, 77.6 points per game and 75.6 allowed, and a 3-1 home record with 85.5 points per game at home. New Haven, by contrast, sits 1-2 with 58.3 points per game and 70.0 allowed, and has gone 0-2 on the road with 56.0 points per game and 77.5 allowed. Penn State's last five games include a 72-57 win over Mercyhurst, a 46-89 loss to Lafayette, and a 76-82 loss to Pittsburgh, while New Haven's recent outings show a 63-55 win over Army, a 54-81 loss to Rutgers and a 58-74 loss to Syracuse. The teams have met once before, with Penn State winning 87-43 in 2025. Pythia projects a 78-66 score, 144.4 total points, and gives Penn State an 86% chance to win, New Haven 14%. The home line is -25.0 with a 12% chance Penn State covers, and the over/under line is 142.5 with a 54% chance of the over; overtime is 3%. The Chargers' last meeting was a decisive 87-43 loss for them, underscoring Penn State's dominance.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Penn State win
85.7%fair 1.17
Best odds1.01
Implied94.4%
Edge-8.7pp
New Haven Chargers win
14.3%fair 6.99
Best odds29.00
Implied5.6%
Edge+8.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 22:22 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Penn StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Nebraska
#21
L
64-87
64
87
-23
A21/02
NCAA
Iowa
#81
W
71-69
71
69
+2
H28/02
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
L
62-94
62
94
-32
H05/03
NCAA
Rutgers
#267
L
62-74
62
74
-12
A08/03
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
L
66-76
66
76
-10
A10/03
NCAA
Canisius
#236
W
97-57
97
57
+40
H03/11
NCAA
Chattanooga Mocs
#212
W
97-93
97
93
+4
H05/11
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#58
L
76-82
76
82
-6
H09/11
NCAA
Lafayette
#202
L
46-89
46
89
-43
A11/11
NCAA
Mercyhurst Lakers
#317
W
72-57
72
57
+15
H12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
20-38
44-49
34-38
37-31
21-45
41-49
21-43
41-31
32-34
34-42
47-26
50-31
54-31
43-62
38-42
38-40
16-54
30-35
33-29
39-28
149.1Avg total
71.3Scored
77.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)77.675.6153.2+2.060%
Season at home (4)85.572.2157.8+13.275%
Season away (1)46.089.0135.0-43.00%
Last 10 (10)71.377.8149.1-6.540%
Last 5 (5)77.675.6153.2+2.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (22)70.082.3152.3-12.323%
vs Similar (6)77.783.0160.7-5.333%
vs Weaker ◀ (2)84.557.0141.5+27.5100%
This opponent (New Haven Chargers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
New Haven ChargersUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Central Connecticut State
#114
L
76-81
76
81
-5
H13/02
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
W
55-52
55
52
+3
H14/02
NCAA
Stonehill
#283
W
64-51
64
51
+13
H20/02
NCAA
Fairleigh Dickinson
#315
W
84-77
84
77
+7
A22/02
NCAA
St. Francis (PA)
#359
L
67-73
67
73
-6
H24/02
NCAA
Wagner
#249
L
62-65
62
65
-3
A27/02
NCAA
Le Moyne
#240
W
66-59
66
59
+7
H28/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#148
L
58-74
58
74
-16
A03/11
NCAA
Rutgers
#21
L
54-81
54
81
-27
A07/11
NCAA
Army
#201
W
63-55
63
55
+8
H11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
33-41
43-40
31-15
24-37
32-30
32-21
55-39
29-38
32-41
35-32
22-20
40-45
31-31
35-28
17-39
41-35
23-39
31-42
24-19
39-36
131.7Avg total
64.9Scored
66.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)58.370.0128.3-11.733%
Season at home (1)63.055.0118.0+8.0100%
Season away (2)56.077.5133.5-21.50%
Last 10 (10)64.966.8131.7-1.950%
Last 5 (5)60.666.8127.4-6.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)57.174.0131.1-16.912%
vs Similar (13)63.063.0126.0+0.054%
vs Weaker (6)66.063.8129.8+2.250%
This opponent (Penn State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 137.5
Over 137.5
66.0%
@ 1.47+2.3pp
Under 137.5
34.0%
@ 2.62-2.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.44
Under
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.50
Over/Under 142.5 · main line
Over 142.5
54.2%
@ 1.86+3.8pp
Under 142.5
45.8%
@ 1.95-3.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.86
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
SBO
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.91
Marathon Be
1.90
WilliamHill
1.85
SBO
1.85
Over/Under 147.5
Over 147.5
42.0%
@ 2.62+5.0pp
Under 147.5
58.0%
@ 1.50-5.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.44

📊 3. Team Totals

Penn State total 79.5
Over 79.5
45.1%
@ 1.40-19.5pp
Under 79.5
54.9%
@ 2.55+19.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Under
Betano
2.55
Penn State total 83.5 · main line
Over 83.5
29.9%
@ 1.85-20.1pp
Under 83.5
70.1%
@ 1.87+20.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.87
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Penn State total 87.5
Over 87.5
17.6%
@ 2.55-17.9pp
Under 87.5
82.4%
@ 1.40+17.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Under
Betano
1.40
New Haven Chargers total 54.5
Over 54.5
87.3%
@ 1.33+18.0pp
Under 54.5
12.7%
@ 3.15-18.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.32
Under
Bet365
3.15
Betano
2.85
New Haven Chargers total 58.5 · main line
Over 58.5
77.1%
@ 1.85+26.4pp
Under 58.5
22.9%
@ 1.95-26.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
New Haven Chargers total 62.5
Over 62.5
63.4%
@ 2.42+26.1pp
Under 62.5
36.6%
@ 1.44-26.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.42
Under
Betano
1.44

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Penn State -27
PENN -27
no forecast
@ 2.22
NEW +27
no forecast
@ 1.58
Best 5 market prices
PENN
Bet365
2.22
NEW
Bet365
1.58
Spread Penn State -24 · main line
PENN -24
14.3%
@ 1.86-35.9pp
NEW +24
85.7%
@ 1.88+35.9pp
Best 5 market prices
PENN
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.85
SBO
1.81
NEW
SBO
1.88
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.86
Spread Penn State -21
PENN -21
20.9%
@ 1.54-39.5pp
NEW +21
79.1%
@ 2.35+39.5pp
Best 5 market prices
PENN
Bet365
1.54
NEW
Bet365
2.35

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -6.4-6.41st half: -1.4-1.42nd half2nd half: -0.1-0.12nd half: -0.5-0.5
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -6.4-6.41st half: -1.4-1.42nd half2nd half: -0.1-0.12nd half: -0.5-0.5
Penn StateNew Haven Chargers
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Penn StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Nebraska
#21
L
20-38
20
38
-18
A21/02
NCAA
Iowa
#81
L
34-38
34
38
-4
H28/02
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
L
21-45
21
45
-24
H05/03
NCAA
Rutgers
#267
L
21-43
21
43
-22
A08/03
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
L
32-34
32
34
-2
A10/03
NCAA
Canisius
#236
W
47-26
47
26
+21
H03/11
NCAA
Chattanooga Mocs
#212
W
54-31
54
31
+23
H05/11
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#58
L
38-42
38
42
-4
H09/11
NCAA
Lafayette
#202
L
16-54
16
54
-38
A11/11
NCAA
Mercyhurst Lakers
#317
W
33-29
33
29
+4
H12/11
NCAA
69.6Avg total
31.6Scored
38.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 68
Last 30 (30)32.239.872.0-7.633%63%
Last 30 at home (18)34.335.870.1-1.450%61%
Last 30 away (12)29.045.874.8-16.88%67%
Last 10 (10)31.638.069.6-6.430%50%
Last 5 (5)37.636.474.0+1.260%80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (22)31.740.872.5-9.127%64%
vs Similar (6)31.540.071.5-8.533%67%
vs Weaker ◀ (2)40.027.567.5+12.5100%50%
This opponent (New Haven Chargers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
New Haven ChargersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Central Connecticut State
#114
L
33-41
33
41
-8
H13/02
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
W
31-15
31
15
+16
H14/02
NCAA
Stonehill
#283
W
32-30
32
30
+2
H20/02
NCAA
Fairleigh Dickinson
#315
W
55-39
55
39
+16
A22/02
NCAA
St. Francis (PA)
#359
L
32-41
32
41
-9
H24/02
NCAA
Wagner
#249
W
22-20
22
20
+2
A27/02
NCAA
Le Moyne
#240
D
31-31
31
31
+0
H28/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#148
L
17-39
17
39
-22
A03/11
NCAA
Rutgers
#21
L
23-39
23
39
-16
A07/11
NCAA
Army
#201
W
24-19
24
19
+5
H11/11
NCAA
61.4Avg total
30.0Scored
31.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 68
Last 30 (30)31.431.763.1-0.250%33%
Last 30 at home (14)34.627.962.5+6.671%36%
Last 30 away (16)28.734.963.6-6.231%31%
Last 10 (10)30.031.461.4-1.450%30%
Last 5 (5)23.429.653.0-6.240%0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)25.536.461.9-10.912%38%
vs Similar (13)30.828.659.5+2.269%15%
vs Weaker (6)31.333.564.8-2.233%50%
This opponent (Penn State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
PENN win
no forecast
@ 1.04
NEW win
no forecast
@ 11.00
1st half Spread Penn State -14.5 · main line
PENN -14.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
NEW +14.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 68 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
Penn State 1st half total 41 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
New Haven Chargers 1st half total 27 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Over/Under 66.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.62
Under
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Over/Under 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.07
Under
no forecast
@ 1.72
1st half Spread Penn State -15.5
PENN -15.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
NEW +15.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
1st half Spread Penn State -13.5
PENN -13.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
NEW +13.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
1st half Spread Penn State -16.5
PENN -16.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
NEW +16.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread Penn State -12.5
PENN -12.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
NEW +12.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Over/Under 64.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.45
Under
no forecast
@ 2.52
1st half Over/Under 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.40
Under
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread Penn State -17.5
PENN -17.5
no forecast
@ 2.67
NEW +17.5
no forecast
@ 1.40
1st half Spread Penn State -11.5
PENN -11.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
NEW +11.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
PENN
no forecast
@ 1.05
Draw
no forecast
@ 34.00
NEW
no forecast
@ 10.25

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
PENN win + total 142.5
🔒 Pro
NEW win + total 142.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: PENN leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
New Haven Chargers +1870.6%3.15
Bet365
3.15		----+41.1pp
New Haven Chargers +2076.5%2.60
Bet365
2.60		----+40.7pp
New Haven Chargers over 5976.4%1.85
1xBet
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83		--+26.4pp
Penn State under 8472.6%1.83
1xBet
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.83		---+22.2pp
Over 135.570.5%1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.34		---+1.9pp
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🔒 35 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Penn State wins
0
New Haven Chargers wins
DateGameScore
08/11/25New Haven Chargers v Penn State43-87
Penn Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HMercyhurst Lakers72-57
11/11/26ALafayette46-89
09/11/26HPittsburgh76-82
05/11/26HChattanooga Mocs97-93
03/11/26HCanisius97-57
10/03/26ANorthwestern66-76
08/03/26ARutgers62-74
05/03/26HOhio State62-94
28/02/26HIowa71-69
21/02/26ANebraska64-87
New Haven Chargerslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HArmy63-55
07/11/26ARutgers54-81
03/11/26ASyracuse58-74
28/02/26HLe Moyne66-59
27/02/26AWagner62-65
24/02/26HSt. Francis (PA)67-73
22/02/26AFairleigh Dickinson84-77
20/02/26HStonehill64-51
14/02/26HLIU Sharks55-52
13/02/26HCentral Connecticut State76-81

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Penn State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW60%
HomeWWLW75%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games541
Win %60%75%0%
Points / game77.685.546.0
Allowed / game75.672.289.0
Point differential+2.0+13.2-43.0
Avg total153.2157.8135.0
Over 142.560%75%0%
Win by 10+40%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
New Haven Chargers
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLW33%
HomeW100%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %33%100%0%
Points / game58.363.056.0
Allowed / game70.055.077.5
Point differential-11.7+8.0-21.5
Avg total128.3118.0133.5
Over 142.50%0%0%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UCLA330100%101.358.3+43.0
2 Nebraska330100%89.060.7+28.3
3 Rutgers330100%84.756.3+28.3
4 Michigan State440100%93.066.2+26.8
5 Oregon330100%95.068.7+26.3
6 Indiana440100%89.068.0+21.0
7 Wisconsin330100%79.058.0+21.0
8 Minnesota440100%78.858.5+20.2
9 USC330100%88.371.3+17.0
10 Washington220100%83.570.0+13.5
11 Illinois43175%104.571.2+33.2
12 Purdue43175%78.569.0+9.5
13 Northwestern43175%70.861.8+9.0
14 Iowa32167%85.064.7+20.3
15 Michigan32167%81.774.3+7.3
16 Penn State53260%77.675.6+2.0
17 Ohio State42250%81.079.2+1.8
18 Maryland31233%84.380.0+4.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Northeast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Le Moyne42250%76.072.5+3.5
2 Central Connecticut State42250%65.579.0-13.5
3 Chicago State52340%68.078.8-10.8
4 Fairleigh Dickinson52340%68.285.0-16.8
5 New Haven Chargers31233%58.370.0-11.7
6 Wagner41325%66.273.2-7.0
7 Mercyhurst Lakers41325%61.270.8-9.5
8 Stonehill41325%59.875.5-15.8
9 LIU Sharks5050%60.875.0-14.2
10 St. Francis (ILL)1010%47.096.0-49.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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