PythiaBasketballBETA
Philadelphia 76ers host Indiana Pacers on 15 November 2026 in the NBA, with the 76ers the clear favourite as the model projects a 71% chance of victory and a 117-109 scoreline; the Pacers face a 29% chance of pulling off an upset. Philadelphia's 10-3 season record, 111.2 points scored and 109.4 allowed per game, places them fifth in the league, and they are 5-2 at home with 111.7 points and 109.0 allowed; their last five games include wins over Toronto and Chicago but a loss to Boston. Indiana sits 5-8 overall, 111.2 points and 113.2 allowed, and 3-3 on the road with 119.2 points and 118.7 allowed; their recent five games feature wins over New York and Washington but a loss to Dallas. Historically the 76ers lead the series 6-4, most recently defeating the Pacers 114-109 on 28 October. The Pythia model assigns a 50% probability that Philadelphia will cover the -7.5 spread and a 58% chance of the over on the 221.5 total, with a 6% likelihood of overtime, and the projected total points are 225.8. The game will hinge on Philadelphia's ability to maintain its offensive edge while Indiana seeks to exploit its recent road form.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (13) | 111.2 | 109.4 | 220.5 | +1.8 | 77% |
| Season at home (7) | 111.7 | 109.0 | 220.7 | +2.7 | 71% |
| Season away (6) | 110.5 | 109.8 | 220.3 | +0.7 | 83% |
| Last 10 (10) | 109.8 | 110.0 | 219.8 | -0.2 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 111.6 | 116.2 | 227.8 | -4.6 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (17) | 102.1 | 111.9 | 214.1 | -9.8 | 35% |
| vs Similar ◀ (7) | 108.6 | 107.9 | 216.4 | +0.7 | 71% |
| vs Weaker (6) | 120.0 | 108.0 | 228.0 | +12.0 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (13) | 111.2 | 113.2 | 224.4 | -2.1 | 38% |
| Season at home (7) | 104.3 | 108.6 | 212.9 | -4.3 | 29% |
| Season away (6) | 119.2 | 118.7 | 237.8 | +0.5 | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 108.1 | 112.2 | 220.3 | -4.1 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 110.2 | 109.4 | 219.6 | +0.8 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (16) | 112.6 | 120.7 | 233.3 | -8.1 | 25% |
| vs Similar ◀ (10) | 117.2 | 118.2 | 235.4 | -1.0 | 30% |
| vs Weaker (4) | 112.8 | 109.2 | 222.0 | +3.5 | 50% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 115.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 55.2 | 59.1 | 114.3 | -3.9 | 43% | 43% |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 54.0 | 59.9 | 113.9 | -5.9 | 33% | 40% |
| Last 30 away (15) | 56.4 | 58.3 | 114.7 | -1.9 | 53% | 47% |
| Last 10 (10) | 56.9 | 55.2 | 112.1 | +1.7 | 60% | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 57.8 | 57.4 | 115.2 | +0.4 | 40% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (17) | 53.4 | 60.6 | 113.9 | -7.2 | 29% | 41% |
| vs Similar ◀ (7) | 54.3 | 56.6 | 110.9 | -2.3 | 43% | 29% |
| vs Weaker (6) | 61.5 | 57.8 | 119.3 | +3.7 | 83% | 67% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 115.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 57.9 | 61.9 | 119.7 | -4.0 | 40% | 60% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 54.9 | 63.6 | 118.4 | -8.7 | 25% | 50% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 61.3 | 59.9 | 121.2 | +1.4 | 57% | 71% |
| Last 10 (10) | 54.4 | 56.2 | 110.6 | -1.8 | 50% | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 54.8 | 54.2 | 109.0 | +0.6 | 80% | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (16) | 58.1 | 64.4 | 122.5 | -6.4 | 31% | 62% |
| vs Similar ◀ (10) | 58.5 | 61.0 | 119.5 | -2.5 | 50% | 60% |
| vs Weaker (4) | 55.5 | 53.8 | 109.2 | +1.8 | 50% | 50% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1: Under 64.5 | 82.1% | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | +6.0pp |
| Philadelphia 76ers over 107.5 | 78.2% | 1.24 | 1.24 | - | - | - | - | +5.3pp |
| Indiana Pacers over 100.5 | 76.7% | 1.24 | 1.24 | - | - | - | - | +3.7pp |
| Q1: Philadelphia 76ers +2.5 | 70.7% | 1.39 | 1.39 | - | - | - | - | +2.0pp |
| Philadelphia 76ers win | 70.8% | 1.34 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.34 | -0.3pp |
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| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 56.8 | 29.5 | 54.0% | 59.0 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 32.9 | 11.0 | 35.1% | 33.0 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 25.8 | 20.4 | 77.3% | 20.4 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 49.4 | 27.2 | 54.0% | 54.4 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 37.3 | 12.4 | 35.1% | 37.2 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 23.4 | 17.7 | 77.3% | 17.7 |
Philadelphia 76ers
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 28/10/26 | Indiana Pacers v Philadelphia 76ers | 109-114 |
| 10/04/26 | Indiana Pacers v Philadelphia 76ers | 94-105 |
| 25/02/26 | Indiana Pacers v Philadelphia 76ers | 114-135 |
| 20/01/26 | Philadelphia 76ers v Indiana Pacers | 113-104 |
| 13/12/25 | Philadelphia 76ers v Indiana Pacers | 115-105 |
| 14/03/25 | Philadelphia 76ers v Indiana Pacers | 100-112 |
| 19/01/25 | Indiana Pacers v Philadelphia 76ers | 115-102 |
| 14/12/24 | Philadelphia 76ers v Indiana Pacers | 107-121 |
| 27/10/24 | Indiana Pacers v Philadelphia 76ers | 114-118 OT |
| 26/01/24 | Indiana Pacers v Philadelphia 76ers | 134-122 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/26 | H | Toronto Raptors | 123-112 |
| 11/11/26 | H | Boston Celtics | 101-123 |
| 08/11/26 | A | Chicago Bulls | 127-121 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Cleveland Cavaliers | 95-119 |
| 05/11/26 | A | Detroit Pistons | 112-106 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Chicago Bulls | 126-107 |
| 31/10/26 | A | Charlotte Hornets | 109-104 |
| 30/10/26 | H | New York Knicks | 98-93 |
| 28/10/26 | A | Indiana Pacers | 114-109 |
| 25/10/26 | H | Detroit Pistons | 93-106 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | New York Knicks | 106-104 |
| 12/11/26 | H | Washington Wizards | 114-101 |
| 10/11/26 | A | Dallas Mavericks | 122-125 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Denver Nuggets | 102-114 |
| 05/11/26 | A | Memphis Grizzlies | 107-103 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Atlanta Hawks | 104-108 |
| 01/11/26 | H | Brooklyn Nets | 90-98 |
| 31/10/26 | A | Miami Heat | 125-145 |
| 28/10/26 | H | Philadelphia 76ers | 109-114 |
| 27/10/26 | A | Milwaukee Bucks | 102-110 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLWLW | 77% |
| Home | LWWLW | 71% |
| Away | WWWLW | 83% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 7 | 6 |
| Win % | 77% | 71% | 83% |
| Points / game | 111.2 | 111.7 | 110.5 |
| Allowed / game | 109.4 | 109.0 | 109.8 |
| Point differential | +1.8 | +2.7 | +0.7 |
| Avg total | 220.5 | 220.7 | 220.3 |
| Over 224.5 | 31% | 43% | 17% |
| Win by 10+ | 23% | 43% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (3) | 100% (1) | 100% (2) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLLWW | 38% |
| Home | LLLWW | 29% |
| Away | WLLWL | 50% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 7 | 6 |
| Win % | 38% | 29% | 50% |
| Points / game | 111.2 | 104.3 | 119.2 |
| Allowed / game | 113.2 | 108.6 | 118.7 |
| Point differential | -2.1 | -4.3 | +0.5 |
| Avg total | 224.4 | 212.9 | 237.8 |
| Over 224.5 | 38% | 14% | 67% |
| Win by 10+ | 15% | 14% | 17% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 50% (6) | 33% (3) | 67% (3) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  San Antonio Spurs | 13 | 11 | 2 | 85% | 119.5 | 106.2 | +13.2 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles Lakers | 13 | 11 | 2 | 85% | 122.2 | 114.2 | +7.9 |
| 3 |  Boston Celtics | 12 | 10 | 2 | 83% | 114.2 | 103.1 | +11.2 |
| 4 |  Houston Rockets | 13 | 10 | 3 | 77% | 116.2 | 107.4 | +8.8 |
| 5 | Philadelphia 76ers | 13 | 10 | 3 | 77% | 111.2 | 109.4 | +1.8 |
| 6 |  Portland Trail Blazers | 12 | 9 | 3 | 75% | 119.6 | 111.8 | +7.8 |
| 7 |  Minnesota Timberwolves | 13 | 9 | 4 | 69% | 118.3 | 106.8 | +11.5 |
| 8 |  Memphis Grizzlies | 13 | 9 | 4 | 69% | 120.6 | 111.7 | +8.9 |
| 9 |  Detroit Pistons | 12 | 8 | 4 | 67% | 115.7 | 110.2 | +5.4 |
| 10 |  Denver Nuggets | 11 | 7 | 4 | 64% | 114.6 | 112.8 | +1.8 |
| 11 |  Golden State Warriors | 13 | 8 | 5 | 62% | 116.7 | 112.4 | +4.3 |
| 12 |  Oklahoma City Thunder | 13 | 8 | 5 | 62% | 111.2 | 107.4 | +3.8 |
| 13 |  Atlanta Hawks | 13 | 7 | 6 | 54% | 118.2 | 116.8 | +1.3 |
| 14 |  Dallas Mavericks | 13 | 7 | 6 | 54% | 113.5 | 113.3 | +0.2 |
| 15 |  Miami Heat | 13 | 7 | 6 | 54% | 118.7 | 119.8 | -1.2 |
| 16 |  New York Knicks | 12 | 6 | 6 | 50% | 109.8 | 103.7 | +6.1 |
| 17 |  Cleveland Cavaliers | 14 | 7 | 7 | 50% | 117.5 | 115.9 | +1.6 |
| 18 |  Phoenix Suns | 11 | 5 | 6 | 45% | 111.7 | 116.1 | -4.4 |
| 19 |  Toronto Raptors | 12 | 5 | 7 | 42% | 114.2 | 112.8 | +1.4 |
| 20 |  Orlando Magic | 12 | 5 | 7 | 42% | 108.3 | 112.8 | -4.4 |
| 21 | Indiana Pacers | 13 | 5 | 8 | 38% | 111.2 | 113.2 | -2.1 |
| 22 |  Charlotte Hornets | 12 | 4 | 8 | 33% | 98.6 | 109.6 | -11.0 |
| 23 |  Washington Wizards | 13 | 4 | 9 | 31% | 110.0 | 115.8 | -5.8 |
| 24 |  New Orleans Pelicans | 14 | 4 | 10 | 29% | 115.9 | 124.9 | -9.1 |
| 25 |  Los Angeles Clippers | 11 | 3 | 8 | 27% | 112.3 | 117.5 | -5.3 |
| 26 |  Brooklyn Nets | 12 | 3 | 9 | 25% | 110.2 | 116.4 | -6.2 |
| 27 |  Chicago Bulls | 12 | 3 | 9 | 25% | 114.6 | 125.9 | -11.3 |
| 28 |  Sacramento Kings | 12 | 1 | 11 | 8% | 108.2 | 120.9 | -12.8 |
| 29 |  Utah Jazz | 13 | 1 | 12 | 8% | 107.5 | 118.6 | -11.2 |
| 30 |  Milwaukee Bucks | 13 | 1 | 12 | 8% | 106.2 | 120.2 | -14.1 |
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