Pittsburgh faces Buffalo on 5 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the model rates the Panthers as the clear favourite, giving them a 90% chance of winning largely because of their 1-0 record, 95.0 points per game and 57.0 points allowed per game, while the Golden Bears sit at 0-1 with 65.0 points per game and 92.0 points allowed. Pittsburgh's lone game was a 95-57 home victory, and their last five games show three wins and two losses, including a recent 95-57 win over Rider at home, whereas Buffalo's single outing was a 65-92 loss away, and their last five contain one win and four losses, with a 65-92 defeat to Marshall away. The two teams have not met before, so there is no head-to-head history to consider. Pythia projects a 82-68 score, with Pittsburgh winning 90% of the time and Buffalo 10%, and the projected total is 149.6 points. The home line is -18.5 with a 36% chance of covering, and the total line is 151.5 with a 45% probability of the over; the chance of overtime is 2%. Pittsburgh's dominant defensive numbers suggest they will keep Buffalo's scoring low, and the game is set to be a decisive blowout.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Pittsburgh winWon
89.6%fair 1.12
Best odds1.04
Implied92.7%
Edge-3.2pp
Buffalo winLost
10.4%fair 9.59
Best odds16.00
Implied7.3%
Edge+3.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 04 Nov 06:58 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Pittsburgh) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 147Actual: Under 147
Over 147
56.2%
@ 1.43-8.8pp
Under 147
43.8%
@ 2.65+8.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.43
Under
Bet365
2.65
Over/Under 152 · main lineActual: Under 152
Over 152
43.6%
@ 1.91-6.4pp
Under 152
56.4%
@ 1.94+6.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.94
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.86
Over/Under 157Actual: Under 157
Over 157
31.8%
@ 2.50-5.7pp
Under 157
68.2%
@ 1.50+5.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Pittsburgh total 81Actual: Pittsburgh under 81
Over 81
54.3%
Under 81
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pittsburgh total 85 · main lineActual: Pittsburgh under 85
Over 85
37.7%
@ 1.85-12.4pp
Under 85
62.3%
@ 1.86+12.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Pittsburgh total 89Actual: Pittsburgh under 89
Over 89
23.2%
Under 89
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buffalo total 62Actual: Buffalo under 62
Over 62
71.4%
Under 62
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buffalo total 66 · main lineActual: Buffalo under 66
Over 66
56.0%
@ 1.85+5.7pp
Under 66
44.0%
@ 1.87-5.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Buffalo total 70Actual: Buffalo under 70
Over 70
39.6%
Under 70
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Pittsburgh -22Actual: Buffalo +22
PITT -22
24.3%
@ 2.40-14.5pp
BUFF +22
75.7%
@ 1.52+14.5pp
Best 5 market prices
PITT
Bet365
2.40
BUFF
Bet365
1.52
Spread Pittsburgh -19 · main linePush
PITT -19
33.5%
@ 1.97-15.3pp
BUFF +19
66.5%
@ 1.88+15.3pp
Best 5 market prices
PITT
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.93
Marathon Be
1.86
BUFF
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Spread Pittsburgh -16Actual: Pittsburgh -16
PITT -16
44.1%
@ 1.57-14.8pp
BUFF +16
55.9%
@ 2.25+14.8pp
Best 5 market prices
PITT
Bet365
1.57
BUFF
Bet365
2.25
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
PittsburghBuffalo
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Buffalo +21.5
73.6%
1.57
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
+14.7pp
Won
Buffalo +22
75.7%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+14.5pp
Won
Buffalo +22.5
76.4%
1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+14.3pp
Won
Buffalo +23
78.4%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+13.8pp
Won
Buffalo +23.5
78.9%
1.42
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+13.7pp
Won
Buffalo +24
80.9%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+13.3pp
Won
Buffalo +21
72.8%
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
Bet365
1.60
-
-
-
+13.1pp
Won
Buffalo +24.5
81.3%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+13.0pp
Won
Buffalo +20.5
70.7%
1.65
Bet365
1.66
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.65
-
-
+12.8pp
Won
Buffalo +25
83.1%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+12.2pp
Won
Pittsburgh under 90.5
80.4%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Won
Pittsburgh under 88.5
74.4%
1.46
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Won
Pittsburgh under 87.5
71.0%
1.52
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+10.9pp
Won
Pittsburgh under 91.5
83.1%
1.28
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+10.8pp
Won
Pittsburgh under 89.5
77.5%
1.37
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
+10.7pp
Won
Pittsburgh under 93.5
87.7%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Won
Pittsburgh under 95.5
91.3%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Won
Pittsburgh under 94.5
89.6%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Won
Pittsburgh under 97.5
94.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Pittsburgh under 99.5
96.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Under 158
70.4%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Under 159
72.6%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Buffalo over 60.5
75.6%
1.29
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Under 160
74.6%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Under 158.5
71.1%
1.39
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Under 159.5
73.1%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Buffalo over 61.5
72.4%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Lost
Under 160.5
75.1%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Under 176.5
94.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Buffalo over 56.5
86.3%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Buffalo over 59.5
78.7%
1.21
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Buffalo over 53.5
91.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Under 175.5
94.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Buffalo over 57.5
84.0%
1.12
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Under 171.5
91.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Buffalo over 55.5
88.4%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Under 161.5
77.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Pittsburgh (regulation)
88.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Marathon Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Under 170.5
90.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Over 125.5
93.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Buffalo under 81.5
91.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
Under 166.5
85.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Over 126.5
92.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Pittsburgh over 69.5
89.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Won
Under 165.5
83.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Over 130.5
88.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
Buffalo under 79.5
87.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Won
Pittsburgh over 70.5
87.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Pittsburgh +1.5
90.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
Over 131.5
86.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
Pittsburgh over 71.5
85.6%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
Pittsburgh win
89.6%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Marathon Bet
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-3.2pp
Won
Buffalo under 74.5
75.6%
1.17
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
Buffalo under 77.5
83.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Won
Buffalo under 75.5
78.5%
1.12
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Won
Pittsburgh over 72.5
83.2%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-4.8pp
Won
Buffalo under 76.5
81.2%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Over 135.5
80.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Pittsburgh over 73.5
80.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-5.0pp
Won
Over 140.5
71.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
Buffalo under 73.5
72.5%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-5.3pp
Won
Over 136.5
78.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Pittsburgh -3.5
84.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.6pp
Won
Pittsburgh over 75.5
74.6%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-6.0pp
Won
Pittsburgh over 74.5
77.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-7.4pp
Won
Pittsburgh over 76.5
71.2%
1.14
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-10.1pp
Won
Pittsburgh -8.5
70.3%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-10.2pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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