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Podgorica vs Kotor Prediction & Stats

Date: Mon 16 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Projected 86-78
Projected total 164.2
Scheduled
Position#7
Record1-1
FormLLWLL
Points / game108.0
Allowed / game73.0
Podgorica
Montenegro
Vs
75%
25%
■ PODG 75%■ KOTO 25%
Pythia win probability
Kotor
Montenegro
Position#4
Record2-1
FormLWWWL
Points / game83.7
Allowed / game74.7
MontenegroPrva A LigaRound 4· Bemax Arena
Other2026-27
Meetings · Podgorica v Kotor
16 Nov 2026
PODG v KOTO
upcoming
18 Oct 2025
PODG69
KOTO74
05 Oct 2024
PODG87
KOTO89
11 Feb 2024
PODG95
KOTO52
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Podgorica will host Kotor on 16 November 2026 in the Prva A Liga, and the Pythia model rates Podgorica as the clear favourite with a 75% chance of winning, a reflection of their 1-1 record, 108.0 points per game and 73.0 allowed per game, and a 7th place league position, all of which outshine Kotor's 2-1 record, 83.7 points per game and 74.7 allowed per game in a 4th place spot; Podgorica's single home game saw them score 127 points and allow only 47, while Kotor's lone road outing yielded 79 points and 67 allowed. In the last five games, Podgorica won only one of five, losing to Sloboda 96-112 at home on 3 November, to Primorje 89-99 away on 1 November, and beating Lim Berane 127-47 at home on 25 October, whereas Kotor won three of five, beating Lim Berane 79-67 away on 31 October, beating Tivat 94-72 at home on 26 October, and losing to Primorje 78-85 at home on 7 November. Their six-meeting history favours Podgorica 4-2, with the last encounter on 18 January 2026 ending 76-67 for Podgorica. Pythia projects a score of 86-78, a total of 164.2 points, and a 75% probability that Podgorica will cover the home line, with a 4% chance of overtime. The final game will see Podgorica's 127-point home performance as the decisive factor.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Podgorica win
75.3%fair 1.33
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Kotor win
24.7%fair 4.04
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 14 Nov 22:22 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PodgoricaMontenegroLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPodgorica
Date
Competition
Tivat
#12
W
82-73
82
73
+9
74avg 74
H07/03
Prva A Liga
Studentski Centar
#9
W
92-73
92
73
+19
no box
H11/03
Prva A Liga
Primorje
#3
W
90-84
90
84
+6
81avg 74
H15/03
Prva A Liga
Decic
#10
L
84-85
84
85
-1
73avg 74
A21/03
Prva A Liga
Jedinstvo
#6
W
86-78
86
78
+8
82avg 74
H26/03
Prva A Liga
Mornar Bar
#4
L
109-117 OT
109
117
-8
106avg 74
A04/04
Prva A Liga
Hercegovac
#2
L
64-76
64
76
-12
54avg 74
A22/10
ABA League 2
Lim Berane
#13
W
127-47
127
47
+80
no box
H25/10
Prva A Liga
Primorje
#3
L
89-99
89
99
-10
no box
A01/11
Prva A Liga
Sloboda
#1
L
96-112
96
112
-16
no box
H03/11
ABA League 2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-28
25-13
15-16
20-16
27-20
24-14
21-15
20-24
18-20
32-23
18-14
22-27
18-18
20-23
23-20
23-24
21-15
27-17
14-22
24-24
26-23
18-26
29-29
29-24
21-18
16-19
15-14
12-25
33-13
32-13
32-15
30-6
20-15
23-32
20-31
26-21
25-20
27-30
21-31
23-31
176.3Avg total
91.9Scored
84.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)108.073.0181.0+35.050%
Season at home (1)127.047.0174.0+80.0100%
Season away (1)89.099.0188.0-10.00%
Last 10 (10)91.984.4176.3+7.550%
Last 5 (5)97.090.2187.2+6.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)76.185.6161.8-9.512%
vs Similar (9)80.380.3160.7+0.044%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)88.475.5163.9+12.877%
This opponent (Kotor) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
KotorMontenegroLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormKotor
Date
Competition
Studentski Centar
#9
L
57-92
57
92
-35
44avg 70
A15/02
Prva A Liga
Primorje
#3
L
72-91
72
91
-19
54avg 70
H08/03
Prva A Liga
Decic
#10
L
84-104
84
104
-20
71avg 70
A10/03
Prva A Liga
Jedinstvo
#6
W
90-71
90
71
+19
83avg 70
H15/03
Prva A Liga
Mornar Bar
#4
L
79-90
79
90
-11
64avg 70
A21/03
Prva A Liga
Lovcen Cetinje
#5
L
59-87
59
87
-28
50avg 70
H28/03
Prva A Liga
Danilovgrad
#13
W
84-60
84
60
+24
88avg 70
A04/04
Prva A Liga
Tivat
#10
W
94-72
94
72
+22
no box
H26/10
Prva A Liga
Lim Berane
#13
W
79-67
79
67
+12
no box
A31/10
Prva A Liga
Primorje
#3
L
78-85
78
85
-7
no box
H07/11
Prva A Liga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
9-30
22-20
16-16
10-26
12-29
19-29
16-16
25-17
20-30
12-23
26-27
26-24
20-26
26-19
20-13
24-13
17-28
19-21
16-17
27-24
18-27
16-17
18-18
7-25
18-19
19-14
26-4
21-23
22-19
22-18
24-21
26-14
18-12
21-8
23-15
17-32
20-26
22-17
19-18
17-24
159.5Avg total
77.6Scored
81.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)83.774.7158.3+9.067%
Season at home (2)86.078.5164.5+7.550%
Season away (1)79.067.0146.0+12.0100%
Last 10 (10)77.681.9159.5-4.340%
Last 5 (5)78.874.2153.0+4.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)75.384.6159.9-9.222%
vs Similar (17)78.780.6159.4-1.947%
vs Weaker (4)85.069.5154.5+15.5100%
This opponent (Podgorica) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 165
Over 165
47.4%
Under 165
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 170
Over 170
35.4%
Under 170
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 175
Over 175
24.8%
Under 175
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Podgorica total 83.5
Over 83.5
59.7%
Under 83.5
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podgorica total 87.5
Over 87.5
44.0%
Under 87.5
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podgorica total 91.5
Over 91.5
29.1%
Under 91.5
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kotor total 78.5
Over 78.5
48.4%
Under 78.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kotor total 82.5
Over 82.5
33.5%
Under 82.5
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kotor total 86.5
Over 86.5
21.1%
Under 86.5
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Podgorica -3
PODG -3
68.1%
KOTO +3
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
PODG
No market prices yet.
KOTO
No market prices yet.
Spread Podgorica 0
PODG 0
75.3%
KOTO 0
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
PODG
No market prices yet.
KOTO
No market prices yet.
Spread Podgorica +3
PODG +3
82.0%
KOTO -3
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
PODG
No market prices yet.
KOTO
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +4.1+4.1Q1: -7.2-7.2Q2Q2: +3.4+3.4Q2: +1.2+1.2Q3Q3: +0.1+0.1Q3: +3.9+3.9Q4Q4: +0.7+0.7Q4: -2.2-2.2
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +4.1+4.1Q1: -7.2-7.2Q2Q2: +3.4+3.4Q2: +1.2+1.2Q3Q3: +0.1+0.1Q3: +3.9+3.9Q4Q4: +0.7+0.7Q4: -2.2-2.2
PodgoricaKotor
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PodgoricaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tivat
#12
W
47-41
47
41
+6
H07/03
Prva A Liga
Studentski Centar
#9
W
51-34
51
34
+17
H11/03
Prva A Liga
Primorje
#3
W
50-43
50
43
+7
H15/03
Prva A Liga
Decic
#10
L
38-41
38
41
-3
A21/03
Prva A Liga
Jedinstvo
#6
W
48-32
48
32
+16
H26/03
Prva A Liga
Mornar Bar
#4
L
44-49
44
49
-5
A04/04
Prva A Liga
Hercegovac
#2
D
37-37
37
37
+0
A22/10
ABA League 2
Lim Berane
#13
W
65-26
65
26
+39
H25/10
Prva A Liga
Primorje
#3
L
43-47
43
47
-4
A01/11
Prva A Liga
Sloboda
#1
W
52-50
52
50
+2
H03/11
ABA League 2
87.5Avg total
47.5Scored
40.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.337.779.0+3.657%-
Last 30 at home (16)43.838.982.7+4.862%-
Last 30 away (14)38.436.374.7+2.150%-
Last 10 (10)47.540.087.5+7.560%-
Last 5 (5)48.241.890.0+6.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)37.640.578.1-2.938%-
vs Similar (9)40.937.978.8+3.056%-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)43.835.879.6+7.969%-
This opponent (Kotor) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
KotorLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Studentski Centar
#9
L
31-50
31
50
-19
A15/02
Prva A Liga
Primorje
#3
L
31-58
31
58
-27
H08/03
Prva A Liga
Decic
#10
L
32-53
32
53
-21
A10/03
Prva A Liga
Jedinstvo
#6
W
46-45
46
45
+1
H15/03
Prva A Liga
Mornar Bar
#4
L
36-49
36
49
-13
A21/03
Prva A Liga
Lovcen Cetinje
#5
L
34-44
34
44
-10
H28/03
Prva A Liga
Danilovgrad
#13
W
37-33
37
33
+4
A04/04
Prva A Liga
Tivat
#10
W
44-37
44
37
+7
H26/10
Prva A Liga
Lim Berane
#13
W
39-20
39
20
+19
A31/10
Prva A Liga
Primorje
#3
L
42-43
42
43
-1
H07/11
Prva A Liga
80.4Avg total
37.2Scored
43.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.041.978.9-4.940%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.741.481.1-1.753%-
Last 30 away (15)34.342.476.7-8.127%-
Last 10 (10)37.243.280.4-6.040%-
Last 5 (5)39.235.474.6+3.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)33.445.478.9-12.022%-
vs Similar (17)38.041.979.9-3.941%-
vs Weaker (4)40.834.074.8+6.875%-
This opponent (Podgorica) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Podgoricatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Podgorica: 83.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.0 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.2 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.8 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 87.9 points a game
53%
30%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.022.0
52.4%
58.8%44.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.17.4
32.0%
31.5%22.2
🏀 Free throws23.616.8
71.2%
69.7%16.8
They take 65.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Kotortheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Kotor: 80.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀58%
🏀🏀🏀23%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.6 pts a game · 58% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.9 pts a game · 23% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.3 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 87.9 points a game
53%
30%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.223.3
56.6%
58.8%46.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.86.3
26.5%
31.5%18.9
🏀 Free throws22.715.3
67.4%
69.7%15.3
They take 65.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Podgorica
LLWLLWLWWW
Kotor
LWWWLLWLLL
#7
League position
#4
+0.0
Net rating
-2.9
103.7
Offensive rating
108.1
103.7
Defensive rating
111.1
50.8%
Effective FG%
50.4%
50.6%
Opp. effective FG%
51.7%
5.2%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.36
Free-throw rate
0.35
32.0%
3-point %
26.5%
58.2%
Assist %
46.6%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence103.7 · 108.1Defence103.7 · 111.1Shooting50.8% · 50.4%3-point %32.0% · 26.5%Ball care5.2% · 0.0%Free throws0.36 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)50% · 40%
■ Podgorica   ■ Kotor
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Podgorica wins
2
Kotor wins
DateGameScore
18/01/26Kotor v Podgorica67-76
18/10/25Podgorica v Kotor69-74 OT
18/01/25Kotor v Podgorica59-68
05/10/24Podgorica v Kotor87-89
04/05/24Kotor v Podgorica65-69
11/02/24Podgorica v Kotor95-52
Podgoricalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/11/26HSloboda96-112
01/11/26APrimorje89-99
25/10/26HLim Berane127-47
22/10/26AHercegovac64-76
04/04/26AMornar Bar109-117 OT
26/03/26HJedinstvo86-78
21/03/26ADecic84-85
15/03/26HPrimorje90-84
11/03/26HStudentski Centar92-73
07/03/26HTivat82-73
Kotorlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HPrimorje78-85
31/10/26ALim Berane79-67
26/10/26HTivat94-72
04/04/26ADanilovgrad84-60
28/03/26HLovcen Cetinje59-87
21/03/26AMornar Bar79-90
15/03/26HJedinstvo90-71
10/03/26ADecic84-104
08/03/26HPrimorje72-91
15/02/26AStudentski Centar57-92

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Podgorica
Prva A Liga 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWL50%
HomeW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %50%100%0%
Points / game108.0127.089.0
Allowed / game73.047.099.0
Point differential+35.0+80.0-10.0
Avg total181.0174.0188.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Kotor
Prva A Liga 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWL67%
HomeWL50%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %67%50%100%
Points / game83.786.079.0
Allowed / game74.778.567.0
Point differential+9.0+7.5+12.0
Avg total158.3164.5146.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%50%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Sutjeska440100%96.873.2+23.5
2 Mornar Bar440100%93.074.2+18.8
3 Primorje220100%92.083.5+8.5
4 Kotor32167%83.774.7+9.0
5 Studentski Centar32167%87.780.7+7.0
6 Danilovgrad32167%72.778.0-5.3
7 Podgorica21150%108.073.0+35.0
8 Vukovi Zeta42250%84.271.0+13.2
9 Jedinstvo31233%69.788.3-18.7
10 Tivat41325%80.086.2-6.2
11 Lovcen Cetinje3030%78.791.7-13.0
12 Decic3030%67.085.3-18.3
13 Lim Berane4040%64.8106.2-41.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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