The Sacramento Kings host the Oklahoma City Thunder on 15 November 2026 in the NBA, with the Thunder the clear favourite as the Pythia model rates them 79% to win, a reflection of their 8-5 record, 111.2 points per game and 107.4 allowed, and their 12-game season showing a stronger offensive output than Sacramento's 1-11 record, 108.2 points per game and 120.9 allowed. Sacramento's season is a 1-11 struggle, 108.4 points per game at home and 118.9 allowed, with no wins in their last five home games and recent losses to Portland, Orlando and Miami. Oklahoma City has a 3-5 road record, 109.8 points per game and 113.2 allowed, and in their last five away contests they have two wins and three losses, including defeats to the Clippers and Trail Blazers. In the ten meetings between the clubs, Oklahoma City has won eight, most recently beating Sacramento 113-99 on 19 November 2025. Pythia gives the Thunder a 79% chance of victory, the Kings 21%, projects a 105-116 score and a 221.5 total, with a 10-point line that the Kings cover 47% of the time and an over probability of 49%; the game carries a 5% overtime likelihood, ending with the Thunder's 116-point performance.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sacramento Kings win
20.6%fair 4.84
Best odds4.80
Implied21.1%
Edge-0.5pp
Oklahoma City Thunder win
79.4%fair 1.26
Best odds1.22
Implied78.9%
Edge+0.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 14 Nov 15:19 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Sacramento Kings) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 222 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 215-219 (11%). The market's main line is 222.5.
Over/Under 217.5
Over 217.5
58.0%
@ 1.61-1.3pp
Under 217.5
42.0%
@ 2.32+1.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.61
WilliamHill
1.60
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
BetVictor
1.55
Under
Betfair
2.32
Bet365
2.30
Marathon Be
2.25
1xBet
2.25
WilliamHill
2.25
Over/Under 222.5 · main line
Over 222.5
47.1%
@ 2.00-2.9pp
Under 222.5
52.9%
@ 1.94+2.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.98
BetVictor
1.95
Betfair
1.94
Pinnacle
1.93
Under
1xBet
1.94
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.89
SBO
1.88
Betfair
1.86
Over/Under 227.5
Over 227.5
36.5%
@ 2.55-1.5pp
Under 227.5
63.5%
@ 1.57+1.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
WilliamHill
2.50
Betano
2.40
Betfair
2.40
Under
Betfair
1.57
Marathon Be
1.55
Betano
1.50
WilliamHill
1.50
Bet365
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
Sacramento Kings total 102
Over 102
60.6%
Under 102
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sacramento Kings total 106 · main line
Over 106
46.6%
@ 1.90-3.4pp
Under 106
53.4%
@ 1.90+3.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
Under
1xBet
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
Sacramento Kings total 110
Over 110
33.2%
Under 110
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oklahoma City Thunder total 112.5
Over 112.5
63.0%
@ 1.56+2.4pp
Under 112.5
37.0%
@ 2.40-2.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.56
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.47
Under
1xBet
2.40
Betano
2.37
Bet365
2.35
Oklahoma City Thunder total 116.5 · main line
Over 116.5
49.2%
@ 1.92-0.9pp
Under 116.5
50.8%
@ 1.93+0.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.88
Betano
1.88
Bet365
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Marathon Be
1.89
Bet365
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Oklahoma City Thunder total 120.5
Over 120.5
35.5%
@ 2.70+0.1pp
Under 120.5
64.5%
@ 1.42-0.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.70
Betano
2.47
Under
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.41
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Sacramento Kings's side (positive = Sacramento Kings win). Pythia's expected margin is -10.9; Sacramento Kings win by 1+ in 18% of simulations.
Spread Sacramento Kings +7.5
SAC +7.5
39.0%
@ 2.39-1.4pp
OKC -7.5
61.0%
@ 1.62+1.4pp
Best 5 market prices
SAC
Pinnacle
2.39
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
Betfair
2.25
OKC
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.58
1xBet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Spread Sacramento Kings +10.5 · main line
SAC +10.5
48.5%
@ 1.95-1.3pp
OKC -10.5
51.5%
@ 2.00+1.3pp
Best 5 market prices
SAC
Pinnacle
1.95
SBO
1.95
1xBet
1.93
Marathon Be
1.90
Betano
1.90
OKC
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.93
Betano
1.91
Spread Sacramento Kings +13.5
SAC +13.5
57.7%
@ 1.60-1.6pp
OKC -13.5
42.3%
@ 2.50+1.6pp
Best 5 market prices
SAC
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.57
Marathon Be
1.56
BetVictor
1.55
Bet365
1.54
OKC
Betfair
2.50
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.35
1xBet
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
Sacramento KingsOklahoma City Thunder
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Sacramento Kings) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half Spread Sacramento Kings +4.5 · main line
SAC +4.5
46.1%
@ 1.89-3.3pp
OKC -4.5
53.9%
@ 1.85+3.3pp
2nd half Over/Under 113.5 · main line
Over
36.8%
@ 1.85-14.3pp
Under
63.2%
@ 1.91+14.3pp
Sacramento Kings 2nd half total 54.5 · main line
Over
37.6%
@ 1.86-12.7pp
Under
62.4%
@ 1.88+12.7pp
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)
SAC
28.7%
@ 2.80-4.1pp
Draw
3.1%
@ 21.00-1.6pp
OKC
68.1%
@ 1.47+5.6pp
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Attempts per game
Made per game
Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
56.7
31.6
55.7%
54.0%
63.2
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
32.1
10.6
33.0%
35.1%
31.8
🏀Free throws
24.1
18.2
75.5%
77.3%
18.2
They take 88.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Attempts per game
Made per game
Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
56.4
28.4
50.4%
54.0%
56.8
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
32.5
11.1
34.2%
35.1%
33.3
🏀Free throws
22.6
18.8
83.2%
77.3%
18.8
They take 88.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
49.4
27.7
56.1%
54.0%
55.4
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
38.7
15.2
39.3%
35.1%
45.6
🏀Free throws
24.0
19.6
81.7%
77.3%
19.6
Their opponents take 88.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 110.0 points a game allowed
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.8 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers44.7 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.5 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
45.8
22.9
50.0%
54.0%
45.8
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
41.7
14.9
35.7%
35.1%
44.7
🏀Free throws
23.6
19.5
82.6%
77.3%
19.5
Their opponents take 87.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 41.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Attempts per game
Made per game
Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
60.2
32.7
54.3%
54.0%
65.3
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
30.3
9.7
32.2%
35.1%
29.2
🏀Free throws
22.3
17.2
77.2%
77.3%
17.2
They take 90.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 33% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Attempts per game
Made per game
Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
52.9
28.6
54.1%
54.0%
57.3
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
36.1
13.5
37.4%
35.1%
40.5
🏀Free throws
21.6
18.0
83.1%
77.3%
18.0
They take 89.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
50.3
28.1
55.9%
54.0%
56.2
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
38.5
15.9
41.2%
35.1%
47.6
🏀Free throws
22.8
18.2
79.6%
77.3%
18.2
Their opponents take 88.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 108.6 points a game allowed
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.0 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.2 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.4 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
49.0
25.0
51.0%
54.0%
50.0
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
37.7
13.7
36.5%
35.1%
41.2
🏀Free throws
22.3
17.4
78.3%
77.3%
17.4
Their opponents take 86.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sacramento Kings
LLLLLWLLLL
Oklahoma City Thunder
LLLWWWWLLW
#28
League position
#12
-7.3
Net rating
-1.1
111.3
Offensive rating
104.8
118.6
Defensive rating
105.9
53.5%
Effective FG%
50.7%
57.3%
Opp. effective FG%
51.7%
14.7%
Turnover %
13.1%
28.4%
Off. rebound %
25.5%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.25
33.0%
3-point %
34.2%
56.4%
Assist %
57.5%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
50%
Profile
■ Sacramento Kings■ Oklahoma City Thunder
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which
predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our
Cookie Policy.
Manage Cookies
Strictly Necessary
Always Active
Cookies required to use the site and the features you have asked for. They provide the
pages, predictions and account functions you requested. These are essential for the
operation of our website.
Session and security cookies, your logged-in state, your
subscription status, and the record of this cookie choice itself. These cannot be switched
off because the site cannot be delivered without them.
Functionality Cookies
Cookies that remember the preferences and settings from your last visit, so the site
behaves the way you left it. They do not tell us who you are and they are not used to
build a profile of you.
Your preferred tours and filters, which notices you have dismissed, your
theme choice, and display preferences you have chosen. Kept for up to two years, and you
can clear them from your browser at any time.
These are what "Essential Only" keeps. Choosing "Allow Necessary Cookies
Only" inside this panel switches them off as well.
Performance Cookies
Cookies used to collect information about your usage of the site. These are used to
produce aggregated statistics about visits to our pages. We use these statistics
internally to test and improve the site and to give you a better experience. Without them
our ability to provide a smoother experience may be degraded.
Which pages and predictions are read, how long pages take to
load, and which features are used, including Google Analytics. Reported in
aggregate, never sold, and not used to identify you personally when you are not signed in.
These are off unless you switch them on here or choose "Accept All".
Third Party Marketing/Targeting
Cookies used to deliver adverts relevant to you based on your interests. This can include
limiting the number of times you see an advert as well as helping us measure the
effectiveness of an advert. Without these cookies you will still see adverts, but they
will not be adjusted to your interests.
Set by our advertising partners. Switching these off does not
reduce the number of adverts you see; it only makes them less relevant to you.
🔒
A Pro feature
Filtering, slicing and choosing dates are part of Pro -
unlock every pick, all slicers, Challenger/ITF boards, set scores and games markets.
PythiaBasketballBETA
Sacramento Kings
San Antonio Spurs
Los Angeles Lakers
Boston Celtics
Houston Rockets
Philadelphia 76ers
Portland Trail Blazers
Minnesota Timberwolves
Memphis Grizzlies
Detroit Pistons
Denver Nuggets
Golden State Warriors
Atlanta Hawks
Dallas Mavericks
Miami Heat
New York Knicks
Cleveland Cavaliers
Phoenix Suns
Toronto Raptors
Orlando Magic
Indiana Pacers
Charlotte Hornets
Washington Wizards
New Orleans Pelicans
Los Angeles Clippers
Brooklyn Nets
Chicago Bulls
Utah Jazz
Milwaukee Bucks
