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Saga vs Shinshu Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 25 Oct 2023
Tip-off: 10:05
Final 80-74
20-21 21-15 21-21 18-17
Position#15
Record1-5
FormLLWLL
Points / game69.2
Allowed / game78.7
Saga 🏆
Japan
vs
Position#23
Record2-4
FormWLLLL
Points / game80.3
Allowed / game86.3
JapanB League· Saga Arena
Other2023-24
Meetings · Saga v Shinshu
31 Jan 2027
SAGA v SHIN
upcoming
29 Jan 2027
SAGA v SHIN
upcoming
25 Oct 2023
SAGA80
SHIN74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Saga winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Shinshu winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SagaJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSaga
Date
Competition
Ryukyu
#5
L
63-80
63
80
-17
51avg 57
H05/10
B League
Ryukyu
#5
L
79-80 OT
79
80
-1
no box
H07/10
B League
Hiroshima D.
#6
L
69-93
69
93
-24
57avg 57
H14/10
B League
Hiroshima D.
#6
W
72-71 OT
72
71
+1
no box
H15/10
B League
Shimane
#12
L
74-87
74
87
-13
71avg 57
A21/10
B League
Shimane
#12
L
58-61
58
61
-3
47avg 57
A22/10
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-18
17-26
16-17
14-19
19-18
21-17
16-19
15-17
15-28
19-29
24-19
11-17
16-12
17-23
12-13
19-16
18-25
24-15
13-25
19-22
21-14
6-15
11-18
20-14
147.8Avg total
69.2Scored
78.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)69.278.7147.8-9.517%
Season at home (4)70.881.0151.8-10.225%
Season away (2)66.074.0140.0-8.00%
Last 10 (6)69.278.7147.8-9.517%
Last 5 (5)70.478.4148.8-8.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)70.582.0152.5-11.550%
vs Similar (4)68.577.0145.5-8.50%
vs Weaker ◀no games
This opponent (Shinshu) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ShinshuJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormShinshu
Date
Competition
SeaHorses Mikawa
#14
L
61-75
61
75
-14
no box
H29/04
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#14
L
61-73
61
73
-12
no box
H30/04
B League
Niigata
#24
W
71-62
71
62
+9
no box
A06/05
B League
Niigata
#24
W
94-72
94
72
+22
no box
A07/05
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
W
84-79 OT
84
79
+5
no box
H07/10
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
W
91-83
91
83
+8
93avg 74
H08/10
B League
Chiba
#9
L
83-97
83
97
-14
79avg 74
A14/10
B League
Chiba
#9
L
85-86
85
86
-1
80avg 74
A15/10
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#4
L
64-72
64
72
-8
55avg 74
H21/10
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#4
L
75-101
75
101
-26
61avg 74
H22/10
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
11-16
14-14
21-26
15-19
22-19
10-16
16-18
13-20
22-12
19-12
16-22
14-16
22-14
18-21
21-21
33-16
21-19
22-20
15-15
17-21
27-14
22-18
21-23
21-28
35-25
13-28
18-25
17-19
18-21
28-22
16-24
23-19
8-14
19-23
23-22
14-13
25-21
17-32
18-23
15-25
156.9Avg total
76.9Scored
80.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)80.386.3166.7-6.033%
Season at home (4)78.583.8162.2-5.250%
Season away (2)84.091.5175.5-7.50%
Last 10 (10)76.980.0156.9-3.140%
Last 5 (5)79.687.8167.4-8.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)71.884.3156.2-12.50%
vs Similar (13)74.278.2152.5-4.046%
vs Weaker (11)79.370.9150.2+8.473%
This opponent (Saga) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.7-1.7Q1: +3.6+3.6Q2Q2: -3.5-3.5Q2: -2.4-2.4Q3Q3: -3.2-3.2Q3: -3.4-3.4Q4Q4: -1.2-1.2Q4: -1.4-1.4
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.7-1.7Q1: +3.6+3.6Q2Q2: -3.5-3.5Q2: -2.4-2.4Q3Q3: -3.2-3.2Q3: -3.4-3.4Q4Q4: -1.2-1.2Q4: -1.4-1.4
SagaShinshu
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SagaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ryukyu
#5
L
33-44
33
44
-11
H05/10
B League
Ryukyu
#5
W
40-35
40
35
+5
H07/10
B League
Hiroshima D.
#6
L
34-57
34
57
-23
H14/10
B League
Hiroshima D.
#6
L
33-35
33
35
-2
H15/10
B League
Shimane
#12
W
42-40
42
40
+2
A21/10
B League
Shimane
#12
L
27-29
27
29
-2
A22/10
B League
74.8Avg total
34.8Scored
40.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (6)34.840.074.8-5.233%-
Last 30 at home (4)35.042.877.8-7.825%-
Last 30 away (2)34.534.569.0+0.050%-
Last 10 (6)34.840.074.8-5.233%-
Last 5 (5)35.239.274.4-4.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)33.546.079.5-12.50%-
vs Similar (4)35.537.072.5-1.550%-
vs Weaker ◀no games
This opponent (Shinshu) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ShinshuLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
SeaHorses Mikawa
#14
L
25-30
25
30
-5
H29/04
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#14
L
32-35
32
35
-3
H30/04
B League
Niigata
#24
W
41-24
41
24
+17
A06/05
B League
Niigata
#24
W
40-35
40
35
+5
A07/05
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
W
43-39
43
39
+4
H07/10
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
W
49-32
49
32
+17
H08/10
B League
Chiba
#9
L
48-53
48
53
-5
A14/10
B League
Chiba
#9
W
46-43
46
43
+3
A15/10
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#4
L
27-37
27
37
-10
H21/10
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#4
L
42-53
42
53
-11
H22/10
B League
77.4Avg total
39.3Scored
38.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.936.073.9+1.953%-
Last 30 at home (16)35.834.970.8+0.944%-
Last 30 away (14)40.337.277.5+3.164%-
Last 10 (10)39.338.177.4+1.250%-
Last 5 (5)42.443.686.0-1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)37.242.279.3-5.033%-
vs Similar (13)39.336.175.4+3.262%-
vs Weaker (11)36.632.569.2+4.155%-
This opponent (Saga) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sagatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Saga: 65.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.5 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.0 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.5 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.8 points a game
49%
35%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.816.8
44.4%
50.9%33.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.56.0
23.5%
33.5%18.0
🏀 Free throws18.513.5
73.0%
72.0%13.5
They take 63.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Shinshutheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Shinshu: 78.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀38%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers29.6 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.4 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.8 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.8 points a game
49%
35%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers29.014.8
51.0%
50.9%29.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.810.8
31.0%
33.5%32.4
🏀 Free throws20.816.8
80.8%
72.0%16.8
They take 63.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 55% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 4/5 games with a box score before 25 Oct 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Saga
LLWLLL
Shinshu
LLLLWWWWLL
#15
League position
#23
-19.6
Net rating
-10.4
89.6
Offensive rating
105.1
109.2
Defensive rating
115.5
40.7%
Effective FG%
48.6%
50.2%
Opp. effective FG%
54.9%
18.2%
Turnover %
15.0%
28.9%
Off. rebound %
25.1%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.33
23.5%
3-point %
31.0%
60.4%
Assist %
76.6%
17%
Form (last 6/10)
40%

Profile

Offence89.6 · 105.1Defence109.2 · 115.5Shooting40.7% · 48.6%3-point %23.5% · 31.0%Ball care18.2% · 15.0%Off. rebounds28.9% · 25.1%Free throws0.29 · 0.33Form (last 6/10)17% · 40%
■ Saga   ■ Shinshu
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Saga wins
0
Shinshu wins
No previous meetings.
Sagalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/10/23AShimane58-61
21/10/23AShimane74-87
15/10/23HHiroshima D.72-71 OT
14/10/23HHiroshima D.69-93
07/10/23HRyukyu79-80 OT
05/10/23HRyukyu63-80
Shinshulast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/10/23HDiamond Dolphins75-101
21/10/23HDiamond Dolphins64-72
15/10/23AChiba85-86
14/10/23AChiba83-97
08/10/23HIbaraki Robots91-83
07/10/23HIbaraki Robots84-79 OT
07/05/23ANiigata94-72
06/05/23ANiigata71-62
30/04/23HSeaHorses Mikawa61-73
29/04/23HSeaHorses Mikawa61-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Saga
B League 2023-24
Recent: 1 Wins / 5 Losses (last 6)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL17%
HomeLLLW25%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games642
Win %17%25%0%
Points / game69.270.866.0
Allowed / game78.781.074.0
Point differential-9.5-10.2-8.0
Avg total147.8151.8140.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)50% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %33%50%0%
Shinshu
B League 2023-24
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL33%
HomeWWLL50%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games642
Win %33%50%0%
Points / game80.378.584.0
Allowed / game86.383.891.5
Point differential-6.0-5.2-7.5
Avg total166.7162.2175.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %17%25%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Osaka660100%90.878.2+12.7
2 Diamond Dolphins660100%86.775.2+11.5
3 Brave Thunders76186%83.674.0+9.6
4 Alvark65183%79.362.8+16.5
5 NeoPhoenix65183%89.078.3+10.7
6 Nagasaki65183%89.882.3+7.5
7 Shimane65183%79.372.5+6.8
8 Ryukyu75271%79.679.4+0.1
9 Utsunomiya Brex64267%73.370.7+2.7
10 Nagoya Fighting Eagles64267%71.072.3-1.3
11 SeaHorses Mikawa63350%80.075.2+4.8
12 Yokohama63350%81.379.5+1.8
13 Chiba63350%87.086.8+0.2
14 Hiroshima D.62433%72.574.7-2.2
15 Shinshu62433%80.386.3-6.0
16 Akita62433%73.780.7-7.0
17 Gunma62433%77.286.0-8.8
18 Kyoto61517%79.283.0-3.8
19 Sun Rockers Shibuya61517%78.583.5-5.0
20 Saga61517%69.278.7-9.5
21 Sendai61517%77.286.7-9.5
22 Hokkaido61517%71.282.2-11.0
23 Ibaraki Robots6060%80.288.7-8.5
24 Toyama6060%74.288.0-13.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 24 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Saga2021211880
Shinshu2115211774
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