Saint Josephs Hawks host Penn on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Hawks the clear favourite, giving them an 82% chance of victory thanks to their undefeated 3-0 record and an average of 77.3 points per game while holding opponents to 70.0. The Hawks have gone 2-0 at home, scoring 74.5 and allowing 65.0, and have won four of their last five games, including a 83-80 win over South Florida on 11 November, a 67-57 home win over Lafayette on 7 November, and an 82-73 victory over Longwood on 4 November. Penn, by contrast, sits at 1-2 with 74.7 points per game and 86.0 allowed, and has lost both road outings, scoring 73.0 and conceding 96.5. Their last five games include a 78-65 home win over Howard on 9 November but two road defeats, one to Navy and another to Illinois. Historically the Hawks lead the series 5-1, though Penn won the most recent meeting 83-74 on 17 November 2025. Pythia projects a 78-68 score, a 146.2 total, and gives the Hawks a 71% chance to cover the -4.5 spread while Penn has a 35% chance of the over; the game carries a 3% overtime probability. The Hawks' recent form and defensive edge suggest they will likely maintain their lead.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Saint Josephs Hawks winWon
82.4%fair 1.21
Best odds1.60
Implied60.3%
Edge+22.1pp
Penn winLost
17.6%fair 5.67
Best odds2.50
Implied39.7%
Edge-22.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 07:07 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Saint Josephs Hawks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 147.5Actual: Over 147.5
Over 147.5
46.3%
@ 1.50-16.0pp
Under 147.5
53.7%
@ 2.55+16.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.37
Over/Under 152.5 · main lineActual: Over 152.5
Over 152.5
34.5%
@ 1.93-15.7pp
Under 152.5
65.5%
@ 1.92+15.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.93
Betano
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.89
Pinnacle
1.89
Under
Bet365
1.92
Pinnacle
1.91
SBO
1.88
Betano
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Over/Under 157.5Actual: Over 157.5
Over 157.5
24.2%
@ 2.55-12.8pp
Under 157.5
75.8%
@ 1.47+12.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.47
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
Saint Josephs Hawks total 75Actual: Saint Josephs Hawks over 75
Over 75
63.8%
Under 75
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saint Josephs Hawks total 79 · main lineActual: Saint Josephs Hawks over 79
Over 79
47.4%
@ 1.85-2.6pp
Under 79
52.6%
@ 1.85+2.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Saint Josephs Hawks total 83Push
Over 83
31.4%
Under 83
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penn total 70Actual: Penn over 70
Over 70
40.6%
Under 70
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penn total 74 · main lineActual: Penn over 74
Over 74
26.2%
@ 1.86-23.7pp
Under 74
73.8%
@ 1.85+23.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Penn total 78Actual: Penn under 78
Over 78
15.2%
Under 78
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Saint Josephs Hawks -7Actual: Penn +7
SAIN -7
63.3%
@ 2.15+20.3pp
PENN +7
36.7%
@ 1.62-20.3pp
Best 5 market prices
SAIN
Bet365
2.15
PENN
Bet365
1.62
Spread Saint Josephs Hawks -4 · main lineActual: Saint Josephs Hawks -4
SAIN -4
73.8%
@ 1.94+24.2pp
PENN +4
26.2%
@ 2.00-24.2pp
Best 5 market prices
SAIN
Pinnacle
1.94
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.71
PENN
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.86
SBO
1.81
Spread Saint Josephs Hawks -1Actual: Saint Josephs Hawks -1
SAIN -1
82.0%
@ 1.50+19.5pp
PENN +1
18.0%
@ 2.50-19.5pp
Best 5 market prices
SAIN
Bet365
1.50
PENN
Bet365
2.50
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Saint Josephs HawksPenn
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Saint Josephs Hawks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Saint Josephs Hawks win
SAIN win
no forecast
@ 1.70
PENN win
no forecast
@ 2.15
2nd half Spread Saint Josephs Hawks -1.5 · main lineActual: Saint Josephs Hawks -1.5
SAIN -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
PENN +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half Over/Under 80.5 · main lineActual: Over 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Saint Josephs Hawks (regulation)
SAIN
no forecast
@ 1.75
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.00
PENN
no forecast
@ 2.22
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Penn under 75
76.9%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
-
+26.4pp
Lost
Saint Josephs Hawks -5
70.4%
1.96
Pinnacle
2.14
SBO
1.93
Bet365
1.92
Marathon Bet
1.86
-
+25.6pp
Won
Penn under 74.5
74.7%
1.85
BetVictor
1.93
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.84
Betano
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
+24.7pp
Lost
Saint Josephs Hawks -4.5
71.4%
1.89
Pinnacle
2.04
Betano
2.00
Bet365
1.88
SBO
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
+24.4pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks -4
73.8%
1.85
Pinnacle
1.94
SBO
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.86
Bet365
1.71
-
+24.2pp
Won
Penn under 73.5
71.5%
1.92
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
+23.8pp
Lost
Penn under 74
73.8%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
-
-
-
+23.7pp
Lost
Saint Josephs Hawks (regulation)
80.3%
1.58
Betano
1.60
Marathon Bet
1.57
-
-
-
+23.4pp
Won
Penn under 75.5
77.6%
1.70
Betano
1.70
-
-
-
-
+23.3pp
Lost
Penn under 76.5
80.3%
1.57
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
-
+22.6pp
Lost
Saint Josephs Hawks -3.5
74.6%
1.79
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.82
SBO
1.81
BetVictor
1.80
+22.5pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks -3
76.6%
1.73
SBO
1.78
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathon Bet
1.75
Bet365
1.64
-
+22.2pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks win
82.4%
1.54
Pinnacle
1.60
1xBet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.55
Marathon Bet
1.54
+22.1pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks -1.5
80.4%
1.58
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.52
-
-
+21.7pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks -2
79.8%
1.60
Pinnacle
1.65
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
+21.7pp
Won
Penn under 77.5
82.9%
1.48
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
-
-
+21.3pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks -2.5
77.2%
1.69
Betano
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
1.60
-
+20.9pp
Won
Penn under 78.5
85.1%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+20.4pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks -1
82.0%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+19.5pp
Won
Penn under 80.5
89.0%
1.31
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
+18.7pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks +1.5
84.0%
1.42
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+18.6pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks +1
83.7%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+18.3pp
Won
Penn under 79.5
87.2%
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+18.0pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks +2.5
86.3%
1.36
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+17.9pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks +4.5
89.5%
1.28
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
+17.2pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks +4
89.4%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+17.2pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks +3.5
87.9%
1.30
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+16.7pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks +2
86.0%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+16.7pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks +3
87.7%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+15.5pp
Won
Under 155
71.3%
1.67
Pinnacle
1.69
Marathon Bet
1.68
Bet365
1.64
-
-
+15.2pp
Lost
Under 156
73.4%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+14.5pp
Lost
Under 155.5
71.9%
1.62
Marathon Bet
1.68
Bet365
1.60
Betano
1.57
-
-
+13.7pp
Lost
Under 156.5
73.9%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
+13.6pp
Lost
Saint Josephs Hawks +6.5
92.3%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+13.4pp
Won
Under 158
77.3%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+13.1pp
Lost
Under 157
75.4%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+12.9pp
Lost
Under 159
79.1%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+12.8pp
Lost
Under 157.5
75.8%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+12.8pp
Lost
Under 161
82.4%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+12.4pp
Won
Under 158.5
77.7%
1.42
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+12.4pp
Lost
Under 160.5
81.1%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+12.2pp
Won
Under 159.5
79.4%
1.37
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Lost
Under 161.5
82.7%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Won
Under 160
80.8%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+11.3pp
Push
Under 163.5
85.5%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks +10.5
95.9%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Won
Under 162.5
84.2%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks +15.5
98.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Won
Under 168.5
91.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Won
Under 167.5
90.3%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Won
Overtime: no
96.6%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
Under 173.5
95.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Under 177.5
96.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Under 178.5
97.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Under 172.5
94.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks +20.5
99.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks under 95.5
95.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks under 97.5
97.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks under 98.5
97.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks under 93.5
93.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks under 88.5
84.6%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks under 91.5
90.6%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks under 89.5
86.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks over 72.5
72.2%
1.31
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks under 87.5
82.1%
1.15
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks under 85.5
76.3%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks over 71.5
75.5%
1.23
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks over 69.5
81.3%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks over 68.5
83.8%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks under 86.5
79.3%
1.17
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
-
-0.0pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks under 84.5
73.1%
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Won
Penn +24.5
88.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Penn over 55.5
88.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.0pp
Won
Over 127.5
87.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Penn over 56.5
86.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.2pp
Won
Over 128.5
86.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.3pp
Won
Penn over 57.5
84.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.9pp
Won
Penn +19.5
78.7%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-8.0pp
Won
Penn over 58.5
81.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-9.3pp
Won
Over 132.5
79.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-9.9pp
Won
Penn over 59.5
79.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-11.3pp
Won
Over 133.5
77.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-11.4pp
Won
Penn over 60.5
76.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-12.9pp
Won
Penn over 61.5
72.9%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-15.4pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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