Samford hosts Wright State on 13 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Samford the clear favourite with a 79% chance of winning, reflecting their 1-1 record and 83.0 points per game compared to Wright State's undefeated 3-0 record and 91.7 points per game. Samford is 208th in the league, averaging 73.0 points allowed, while Wright State sits 55th, allowing 70.0 points per game. Samford's sole home game was a 87-58 victory over Berry, and their last five games include a 79-88 loss to UNLV, a 87-58 win over Berry, and a 81-86 loss to Furman; Wright State's last five feature a 76-68 win over Toledo, a 97-71 win over Florida Atlantic, and a 102-71 win over Air Force. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history exists. Pythia projects a 82-73 score, with Samford covering the 1.5-point line 81% of the time and the over on the 156.5 total 45% of the time, and a 4% chance of overtime. The game ends with Samford's 82 points and Wright State's 73.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Samford winLost
79.1%fair 1.26
Best odds2.02
Implied48.1%
Edge+31.1pp
Wright State winWon
20.9%fair 4.80
Best odds1.85
Implied51.9%
Edge-31.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 07:07 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Samford) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 151Actual: Over 151
Over 151
58.8%
Under 151
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 156 · main linePush
Over 156
46.4%
@ 1.88-4.3pp
Under 156
53.6%
@ 1.93+4.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
SBO
1.81
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
Over/Under 161Actual: Under 161
Over 161
34.4%
Under 161
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
📊 3. Team Totals
Samford total 73.5Actual: Samford under 73.5
Over 73.5
80.1%
@ 1.39+15.0pp
Under 73.5
19.9%
@ 2.60-15.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Under
Betano
2.60
Samford total 77.5 · main lineActual: Samford under 77.5
Over 77.5
67.4%
@ 1.91+17.7pp
Under 77.5
32.6%
@ 1.88-17.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.83
Under
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Samford total 81.5Actual: Samford under 81.5
Over 81.5
52.0%
@ 2.47+15.5pp
Under 81.5
48.0%
@ 1.42-15.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.47
Under
Betano
1.42
Wright State total 75Actual: Wright State over 75
Over 75
40.5%
Under 75
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wright State total 79 · main lineActual: Wright State over 79
Over 79
26.2%
@ 1.86-23.7pp
Under 79
73.8%
@ 1.85+23.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Wright State total 82.5Actual: Wright State over 82.5
Over 82.5
17.2%
@ 2.52-18.8pp
Under 82.5
82.8%
@ 1.42+18.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.52
Under
Betano
1.42
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Samford -2Actual: Wright State +2
SAMF -2
76.2%
@ 2.24+33.3pp
WRIG +2
23.8%
@ 1.68-33.3pp
Best 5 market prices
SAMF
Pinnacle
2.24
Bet365
2.15
WRIG
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.62
Spread Samford +1 · main lineActual: Wright State -1
SAMF +1
80.6%
@ 1.95+31.3pp
WRIG -1
19.4%
@ 1.90-31.3pp
Best 5 market prices
SAMF
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
1.94
Marathon Be
1.91
SBO
1.85
WRIG
Pinnacle
1.90
SBO
1.85
Bet365
1.84
Marathon Be
1.80
Spread Samford +4Actual: Wright State -4
SAMF +4
87.1%
@ 1.61+27.7pp
WRIG -4
12.9%
@ 2.36-27.7pp
Best 5 market prices
SAMF
Pinnacle
1.61
Bet365
1.58
WRIG
Pinnacle
2.36
Bet365
2.22
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
SamfordWright State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Wright State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Wright StateLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Robert Morris
#74
L
39-42
39
42
-3
H22/02
NCAA
IPFW
#181
L
43-44
43
44
-1
A26/02
NCAA
Northern Kentucky
#130
W
57-38
57
38
+19
A01/03
NCAA
Cleveland State
#303
W
53-29
53
29
+24
H05/03
NCAA
Northern Kentucky
#130
W
57-46
57
46
+11
H09/03
NCAA
Detroit
#184
W
40-34
40
34
+6
H10/03
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
30-44
30
44
-14
A20/03
NCAA
Air Force
#122
W
42-40
42
40
+2
H03/11
NCAA
Florida Atlantic
#141
W
50-43
50
43
+7
H07/11
NCAA
Toledo
#262
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A11/11
NCAA
84.8Avg total
45.1Scored
39.7Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 80.5
Last 30 (30)
42.3
40.0
82.3
+2.2
57%
53%
Last 30 at home (17)
42.9
37.9
80.8
+5.0
76%
53%
Last 30 away (13)
41.5
42.8
84.3
-1.4
31%
54%
Last 10 (10)
45.1
39.7
84.8
+5.4
70%
70%
Last 5 (5)
40.4
39.6
80.0
+0.8
80%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)
36.0
40.5
76.5
-4.5
50%
0%
vs Similar (10)
43.0
40.2
83.2
+2.8
50%
60%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)
42.6
39.9
82.4
+2.7
61%
56%
This opponent (Samford) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Wright State win
SAMF win
no forecast
@ 1.95
WRIG win
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half Spread Samford +1.5 · main lineActual: Wright State -1.5
SAMF +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
WRIG -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
2nd half Over/Under 80.5 · main lineActual: Over 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Wright State (regulation)
SAMF
no forecast
@ 2.02
Draw
no forecast
@ 16.50
WRIG
no forecast
@ 1.91
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Samford (regulation)
76.9%
2.08
Marathon Bet
2.08
Betano
2.07
-
-
-
+33.6pp
Lost
Samford -2
76.2%
2.20
Pinnacle
2.24
Bet365
2.15
-
-
-
+33.3pp
Lost
Samford -3
72.7%
2.35
Bet365
2.35
-
-
-
-
+33.1pp
Lost
Samford -2.5
73.5%
2.28
Pinnacle
2.34
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.22
-
-
+32.6pp
Lost
Samford -3.5
70.7%
2.42
Betano
2.45
Bet365
2.40
-
-
-
+32.5pp
Lost
Samford -1
78.7%
2.00
Pinnacle
2.07
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.93
-
-
+32.5pp
Lost
Samford -1.5
77.0%
2.11
Betano
2.15
Pinnacle
2.14
Bet365
2.05
-
-
+32.2pp
Lost
Samford +1
80.6%
1.91
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
1.94
Marathon Bet
1.91
SBO
1.85
-
+31.3pp
Lost
Samford win
79.1%
1.99
Betano
2.02
WilliamHill
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
Bet365
1.99
+31.1pp
Lost
Samford +1.5
81.0%
1.86
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.86
+30.1pp
Lost
Samford +2
83.2%
1.79
SBO
1.85
Pinnacle
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.79
Bet365
1.74
-
+29.9pp
Lost
Samford +2.5
83.6%
1.74
SBO
1.78
Betano
1.75
BetVictor
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.73
+28.2pp
Lost
Samford +3
85.2%
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
Bet365
1.66
-
-
-
+27.9pp
Lost
Samford +3.5
85.4%
1.63
Pinnacle
1.66
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
-
-
+27.8pp
Lost
Samford +4
87.1%
1.60
Pinnacle
1.61
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
+27.7pp
Lost
Samford +4.5
87.4%
1.54
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
+27.3pp
Lost
Samford +5
88.9%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+26.4pp
Lost
Samford +6
90.5%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+25.5pp
Lost
Samford +5.5
89.1%
1.46
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
+25.5pp
Lost
Samford +7
91.8%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+24.3pp
Lost
Samford +6.5
90.6%
1.39
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
+24.2pp
Lost
Wright State under 79
73.8%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
-
-
-
+23.7pp
Lost
Samford +7.5
91.9%
1.33
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+22.5pp
Lost
Samford +8
93.0%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+22.5pp
Lost
Wright State under 79.5
74.6%
1.77
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
Betano
1.72
-
-
+21.6pp
Lost
Samford +8.5
93.1%
1.29
Bet365
1.31
Betano
1.27
-
-
-
+21.4pp
Lost
Wright State under 78.5
71.5%
1.87
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.87
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.83
+21.2pp
Lost
Samford +9
94.0%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+21.2pp
Lost
Wright State under 80.5
77.6%
1.60
Betano
1.60
-
-
-
-
+20.8pp
Lost
Samford +9.5
94.1%
1.26
Bet365
1.27
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
+20.4pp
Lost
Wright State under 81.5
80.3%
1.50
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
-
+19.7pp
Lost
Wright State under 82.5
82.8%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+18.8pp
Lost
Samford over 76.5
70.9%
1.75
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.70
-
-
-
+18.3pp
Lost
Wright State under 83.5
85.0%
1.35
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
-
+17.9pp
Lost
Samford +11.5
95.7%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+17.9pp
Lost
Samford over 75.5
74.2%
1.55
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
-
+15.7pp
Lost
Samford over 74.5
77.3%
1.47
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
-
+15.6pp
Lost
Samford over 73.5
80.1%
1.39
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
-
+15.0pp
Lost
Samford over 72.5
82.8%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+14.3pp
Lost
Samford +16.5
98.1%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+12.0pp
Lost
Samford over 70.5
87.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Lost
Samford +21.5
99.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Lost
Samford over 68.5
91.0%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Lost
Overtime: no
96.2%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Under 163.5
70.6%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Under 176.5
90.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Under 166.5
76.5%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Under 171.5
84.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Over 131.5
92.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.0pp
Won
Over 136.5
86.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
Wright State +23.5
89.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Won
Over 141.5
78.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Wright State over 60.5
88.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.2pp
Won
Wright State over 61.5
86.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.8pp
Won
Wright State over 62.5
84.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-7.3pp
Won
Wright State over 63.5
81.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-8.8pp
Won
Wright State +18.5
79.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-9.8pp
Won
Wright State over 64.5
78.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-11.3pp
Won
Wright State over 65.5
75.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-12.8pp
Won
Wright State over 66.5
72.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-15.2pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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