PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

UNLV vs Samford Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 07 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 21:00
Projected 83-73
Projected total 155.2
Final 88-79
45-40 43-39
Position#118
Record1-0
FormWLWLW
Points / game89.0
Allowed / game77.0
UNLV 🏆
USA
Vs
81%
19%
■ UNLV 81%■ SAMF 19%
Pythia win probability
Samford
USA
Position#211
Record1-0
FormLWWLW
Points / game87.0
Allowed / game58.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

UNLV hosts Samford on 7 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names UNLV the clear favourite, rating them 81% to win largely because of their 1-0 record, 89.0 points per game and 77.0 allowed, placing them 154th in the league, while Samford also stands 1-0 but with 87.0 points per game and only 58.0 allowed, 87th in the league. UNLV's single game has been a 89-77 victory, and their last five games show 3 wins and 2 losses, with a recent 89-77 win over Northern Arizona at home; Samford's lone outing was a 87-58 win over Berry Vikings, and their last five also record 3 wins and 2 losses, including a 87-58 win at home against Berry. The teams have not met before, so there is no head-to-head history to consider. Pythia projects an 83-73 score, giving UNLV an 81% chance to win, Samford 19%, and a projected total of 155.2 points. The home line is -12.0 with a 43% chance of covering, and the total line is 156.5 with a 46% chance of the over, while the game carries a 4% overtime probability. The next concrete fact is that UNLV's last home game was a 89-77 win over Northern Arizona.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

UNLV winWon
81.5%fair 1.23
Best odds1.17
Implied83.7%
Edge-2.2pp
Samford winLost
18.5%fair 5.40
Best odds6.00
Implied16.3%
Edge+2.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

UNLVUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boise State
#101
W
86-83 OT
86
83
+3
A14/02
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
L
86-91
86
91
-5
H19/02
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
91-66
91
66
+25
A21/02
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
L
67-80
67
80
-13
A26/02
NCAA
Nevada
#86
W
85-83 OT
85
83
+2
H01/03
NCAA
Utah State
#20
W
92-65
92
65
+27
H04/03
NCAA
San Diego State
#70
L
86-89
86
89
-3
A07/03
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
W
73-70
73
70
+3
H11/03
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
60-80
60
80
-20
A12/03
NCAA
Northern Arizona
#355
W
89-77
89
77
+12
H04/11
NCAA
1H
2H
29-40
48-37
39-47
47-44
34-31
57-35
24-42
43-38
35-37
39-37
32-24
60-41
39-42
47-47
44-31
29-39
23-37
37-43
43-47
46-30
159.9Avg total
81.5Scored
78.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)89.077.0166.0+12.0100%
Season at home (1)89.077.0166.0+12.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)81.578.4159.9+3.160%
Last 5 (5)80.076.2156.2+3.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)73.981.5155.4-7.625%
vs Similar ◀ (10)82.983.7166.6-0.870%
vs Weaker (8)78.265.0143.2+13.275%
This opponent (Samford) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SamfordUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Citadel
#302
W
78-64
78
64
+14
H06/02
NCAA
Mercer
#117
W
69-49
69
49
+20
H07/02
NCAA
Wofford
#126
W
97-80
97
80
+17
H12/02
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
W
82-72 OT
82
72
+10
A14/02
NCAA
Citadel
#302
W
78-75
78
75
+3
A20/02
NCAA
Mercer
#117
L
86-89
86
89
-3
A21/02
NCAA
VMI
#364
W
80-61
80
61
+19
H27/02
NCAA
NC Greensboro
#252
W
87-78
87
78
+9
H28/02
NCAA
Furman
#93
L
81-86
81
86
-5
H07/03
NCAA
Berry Vikings
#386
W
87-58
87
58
+29
H03/11
NCAA
1H
2H
39-32
39-32
40-22
29-27
47-34
50-46
38-37
30-31
31-34
47-41
41-44
45-45
36-36
44-25
50-41
37-37
46-46
35-40
45-28
42-30
153.7Avg total
82.5Scored
71.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)87.058.0145.0+29.0100%
Season at home (1)87.058.0145.0+29.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)82.571.2153.7+11.380%
Last 5 (5)84.274.4158.6+9.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)66.879.8146.6-13.020%
vs Similar ◀ (15)79.578.3157.8+1.147%
vs Weaker (9)83.665.3148.9+18.289%
This opponent (UNLV) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 153Actual: Over 153
Over 153
55.0%
@ 1.40-11.2pp
Under 153
45.0%
@ 2.75+11.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.75
Over/Under 158 · main lineActual: Over 158
Over 158
42.6%
@ 1.91-7.4pp
Under 158
57.4%
@ 2.00+7.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.83
Bet365
1.71
Under
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.87
Over/Under 163Actual: Over 163
Over 163
30.9%
@ 2.30-9.3pp
Under 163
69.1%
@ 1.55+9.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.30
Under
Bet365
1.55

📊 3. Team Totals

UNLV total 80Actual: UNLV over 80
Over 80
61.1%
Under 80
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UNLV total 84 · main lineActual: UNLV over 84
Over 84
44.6%
@ 1.87-5.1pp
Under 84
55.4%
@ 1.85+5.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
UNLV total 88Push
Over 88
29.0%
Under 88
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samford total 68Actual: Samford over 68
Over 68
67.3%
Under 68
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samford total 72 · main lineActual: Samford over 72
Over 72
51.5%
@ 1.85+1.5pp
Under 72
48.5%
@ 1.85-1.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Samford total 76Actual: Samford over 76
Over 76
35.7%
Under 76
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread UNLV -14Actual: Samford +14
UNLV -14
36.0%
@ 2.50-1.5pp
SAMF +14
64.0%
@ 1.50+1.5pp
Best 5 market prices
UNLV
Bet365
2.50
SAMF
Bet365
1.50
Spread UNLV -11 · main lineActual: Samford +11
UNLV -11
46.8%
@ 1.95-3.3pp
SAMF +11
53.2%
@ 1.96+3.3pp
Best 5 market prices
UNLV
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.87
SBO
1.87
1xBet
1.76
SAMF
1xBet
1.96
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.84
Bet365
1.80
Spread UNLV -8Actual: UNLV -8
UNLV -8
58.2%
@ 1.57-0.7pp
SAMF +8
41.8%
@ 2.25+0.7pp
Best 5 market prices
UNLV
Bet365
1.57
SAMF
Bet365
2.25

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -3.6-3.61st half: +5.9+5.92nd half2nd half: +6.2+6.22nd half: +4.4+4.4
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -3.6-3.61st half: +5.9+5.92nd half2nd half: +6.2+6.22nd half: +4.4+4.4
UNLVSamford
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
UNLVLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boise State
#101
L
29-40
29
40
-11
A14/02
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
L
39-47
39
47
-8
H19/02
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
34-31
34
31
+3
A21/02
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
L
24-42
24
42
-18
A26/02
NCAA
Nevada
#86
L
35-37
35
37
-2
H01/03
NCAA
Utah State
#20
W
32-24
32
24
+8
H04/03
NCAA
San Diego State
#70
L
39-42
39
42
-3
A07/03
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
W
44-31
44
31
+13
H11/03
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
23-37
23
37
-14
A12/03
NCAA
Northern Arizona
#355
L
43-47
43
47
-4
H04/11
NCAA
72.0Avg total
34.2Scored
37.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 74.5
Last 30 (30)36.136.772.8-0.747%43%
Last 30 at home (15)38.635.373.9+3.360%53%
Last 30 away (15)33.538.271.7-4.733%33%
Last 10 (10)34.237.872.0-3.630%40%
Last 5 (5)36.236.272.4+0.040%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)32.838.070.8-5.225%42%
vs Similar ◀ (10)37.439.777.1-2.340%60%
vs Weaker (8)39.431.170.5+8.288%25%
This opponent (Samford) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SamfordLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Citadel
#302
W
39-32
39
32
+7
H06/02
NCAA
Mercer
#117
W
40-22
40
22
+18
H07/02
NCAA
Wofford
#126
W
47-34
47
34
+13
H12/02
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A14/02
NCAA
Citadel
#302
L
31-34
31
34
-3
A20/02
NCAA
Mercer
#117
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A21/02
NCAA
VMI
#364
D
36-36
36
36
+0
H27/02
NCAA
NC Greensboro
#252
W
50-41
50
41
+9
H28/02
NCAA
Furman
#93
D
46-46
46
46
+0
H07/03
NCAA
Berry Vikings
#386
W
45-28
45
28
+17
H03/11
NCAA
76.7Avg total
41.3Scored
35.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 74.5
Last 30 (30)37.236.774.0+0.537%43%
Last 30 at home (15)41.134.275.3+6.947%40%
Last 30 away (15)33.439.372.7-5.927%47%
Last 10 (10)41.335.476.7+5.960%50%
Last 5 (5)43.639.082.6+4.640%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)29.839.269.0-9.420%40%
vs Similar ◀ (15)37.339.376.6-1.927%53%
vs Weaker (9)40.332.172.4+8.256%33%
This opponent (UNLV) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: UNLV win
UNLV win
no forecast
@ 1.31
SAMF win
no forecast
@ 4.25
1st half Spread UNLV -6 · main lineActual: Samford +6
UNLV -6
no forecast
@ 1.91
SAMF +6
no forecast
@ 1.93
1st half Over/Under 74.5 · main lineActual: Over 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.94
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
UNLV 1st half total 41 · main lineActual: UNLV over 41
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Samford 1st half total 34 · main lineActual: Samford over 34
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 73Actual: Over 73
Over
no forecast
@ 1.73
Under
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Over/Under 76Actual: Over 76
Over
no forecast
@ 2.18
Under
no forecast
@ 1.68
1st half Spread UNLV -7Actual: Samford +7
UNLV -7
no forecast
@ 2.10
SAMF +7
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Spread UNLV -5Push
UNLV -5
no forecast
@ 1.74
SAMF +5
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Over/Under 71.5Actual: Over 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.52
Under
no forecast
@ 2.35
1st half Over/Under 77.5Actual: Over 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.32
Under
no forecast
@ 1.53
1st half Spread UNLV -8.5Actual: Samford +8.5
UNLV -8.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
SAMF +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
1st half Spread UNLV -3.5Actual: UNLV -3.5
UNLV -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
SAMF +3.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half Over/Under 69.5Actual: Over 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.42
Under
no forecast
@ 2.62
1st half Over/Under 79.5Actual: Over 79.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.67
Under
no forecast
@ 1.40
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: UNLV (regulation)
UNLV
no forecast
@ 1.29
Draw
no forecast
@ 23.00
SAMF
no forecast
@ 4.25

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
UNLV win + total 158.5
🔒 Pro
SAMF win + total 158.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: UNLV leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: SAMF leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
UNLV under 90.578.3%1.31
Betano
1.31		----+9.3ppWon
Under 16573.3%1.44
Bet365
1.44		----+8.7ppLost
Under 16471.2%1.50
Bet365
1.50		----+8.7ppLost
Under 166.575.7%1.37
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36		---+8.3ppLost
Under 16675.2%1.38
Bet365
1.38		----+8.3ppLost
UNLV under 88.572.0%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+8.2ppWon
UNLV under 89.575.2%1.35
Betano
1.35		----+8.2ppWon
Under 164.571.8%1.46
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.44		---+8.0ppLost
Under 16777.1%1.34
Bet365
1.34		----+7.7ppPush
Under 165.573.8%1.40
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.38		---+7.6ppLost
Under 167.577.5%1.32
Bet365
1.32		----+7.1ppWon
UNLV under 94.588.1%1.14
Bet365
1.14		----+6.7ppWon
Samford +19.579.6%1.24
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.22		---+4.5ppWon
Overtime: no96.5%1.02
Betano
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02		---+4.3pp-
Samford +1979.1%1.22
Bet365
1.22		----+2.9ppWon
Samford +16.571.5%1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.33		---+2.6ppWon
Samford over 55.595.3%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+2.5ppWon
Samford +17.574.4%1.29
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.27		---+2.5ppWon
UNLV (regulation)79.4%1.16
Marathon Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.14		--+2.2ppWon
Samford +18.577.1%1.23
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22		---+2.2ppWon
Samford over 56.594.2%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+1.4ppWon
Samford +1773.6%1.28
Bet365
1.28		----+1.3ppWon
Samford +1876.5%1.23
Bet365
1.23		----+1.2ppWon
Samford +1670.6%1.34
Bet365
1.34		----+1.1ppWon
Under 176.590.1%1.05
Bet365
1.05		----+1.1ppWon
Samford over 57.593.0%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+0.7ppWon
Over 131.592.7%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+0.4ppWon
Samford over 58.591.6%1.02
Bet365
1.02		----+0.4ppWon
Under 171.584.0%1.11
Bet365
1.11		----+0.2ppWon
UNLV -375.5%1.22
Bet365
1.22		-----0.6ppWon
UNLV -472.6%1.27
Bet365
1.27		-----0.7ppWon
Samford over 59.589.9%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----0.8ppWon
UNLV -4.570.2%1.30
Bet365
1.31
Betano
1.29		----0.9ppWon
Samford over 60.588.1%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----1.0ppWon
UNLV -3.573.5%1.25
Bet365
1.25		-----1.0ppWon
UNLV -2.576.2%1.20
Bet365
1.20		-----1.6ppWon
Samford over 66.571.9%1.25
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.20		----1.9ppWon
Over 136.587.3%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----2.1ppWon
UNLV win81.5%1.14
Marathon Bet
1.17
Betano
1.15
Pinnacle
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.14		-2.2ppWon
Samford over 61.586.0%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----2.8ppWon
UNLV over 73.582.1%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----2.9ppWon
Samford over 62.583.6%1.08
Bet365
1.08		-----3.0ppWon
UNLV over 75.576.5%1.15
Bet365
1.15		-----4.0ppWon
Samford over 64.578.2%1.13
Bet365
1.13		-----4.1ppWon
Over 141.579.7%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----4.1ppWon
Samford over 63.581.0%1.09
Bet365
1.09		-----5.1ppWon
UNLV over 74.579.4%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----6.1ppWon
Samford over 65.575.2%1.14
Bet365
1.14		-----6.2ppWon
UNLV over 76.573.3%1.15
Bet365
1.15		-----7.2ppWon
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
UNLV wins
0
Samford wins
No previous meetings.
UNLVlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/11/26HNorthern Arizona89-77
12/03/26AUtah State60-80
11/03/26HWyoming73-70
07/03/26ASan Diego State86-89
04/03/26HUtah State92-65
01/03/26HNevada85-83 OT
26/02/26AGrand Canyon67-80
21/02/26AAir Force91-66
19/02/26HColorado State86-91
14/02/26ABoise State86-83 OT
Samfordlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/11/26HBerry Vikings87-58
07/03/26HFurman81-86
28/02/26HNC Greensboro87-78
27/02/26HVMI80-61
21/02/26AMercer86-89
20/02/26ACitadel78-75
14/02/26AEast Tennessee St82-72 OT
12/02/26HWofford97-80
07/02/26HMercer69-49
06/02/26HCitadel78-64

📊 11. Overall Statistics

UNLV
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
HomeW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game89.089.0-
Allowed / game77.077.0-
Point differential+12.0+12.0-
Avg total166.0166.0-
Over 158100%100%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Samford
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
HomeW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game87.087.0-
Allowed / game58.058.0-
Point differential+29.0+29.0-
Avg total145.0145.0-
Over 1580%0%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mountain West conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boise State110100%132.053.0+79.0
2 New Mexico110100%100.060.0+40.0
3 Wyoming220100%94.055.0+39.0
4 Nevada110100%86.049.0+37.0
5 Utah State110100%94.058.0+36.0
6 Grand Canyon110100%103.079.0+24.0
7 San Jose State110100%95.074.0+21.0
8 San Diego State220100%89.572.0+17.5
9 UNLV110100%89.077.0+12.0
10 Colorado State220100%81.070.5+10.5
11 Fresno State110100%88.079.0+9.0
12 Air Force21150%89.080.0+9.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Southern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Furman220100%100.061.0+39.0
2 Samford110100%87.058.0+29.0
3 NC Greensboro21150%80.558.5+22.0
4 Citadel21150%76.067.0+9.0
5 Mercer21150%78.574.5+4.0
6 VMI21150%92.589.0+3.5
7 Western Carolina1010%72.080.0-8.0
8 Chattanooga Mocs2020%81.590.5-9.0
9 East Tennessee St2020%64.076.0-12.0
10 Wofford2020%64.599.5-35.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
UNLV454388
Samford403979
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.