Siena hosts Brown on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Siena the clear favourite, rating them 94% to win because of their 2-1 season record, 85.3 points per game and 79.0 allowed, and a 1-0 home record with 82.0 points scored and 68.0 allowed. Siena has won two of its last five games, including a 99-89 victory over Dayton and an 82-68 win at home, while Brown has struggled, going 1-3 this season, 67.0 points per game and 68.0 allowed, and only one road win, a 65-55 triumph over Lehigh. In their three meetings, Siena has won twice, most recently beating Brown 62-46 on 7 November 2025. Pythia projects a 82-64 score, a total of 146.6 points, and gives Siena a 78% chance to cover the home line of -9.5; the over on the 156.5 total has a 27% probability, and there is a 1% chance of overtime. The game ends with Siena's dominant offensive output and Brown's limited scoring, setting the stage for a decisive home victory.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Siena winWon
94.0%fair 1.06
Best odds1.18
Implied82.9%
Edge+11.1pp
Brown winLost
6.0%fair 16.67
Best odds6.00
Implied17.1%
Edge-11.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 14:24 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Siena) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 151.5Actual: Over 151.5
Over 151.5
37.8%
@ 1.42-30.0pp
Under 151.5
62.2%
@ 3.15+30.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.32
Under
Bet365
3.15
Betano
2.65
Over/Under 156.5 · main lineActual: Under 156.5
Over 156.5
26.8%
@ 1.83-25.3pp
Under 156.5
73.2%
@ 2.40+25.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Marathon Be
1.75
Betano
1.60
Under
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.18
Marathon Be
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.83
Over/Under 161.5Actual: Under 161.5
Over 161.5
17.7%
@ 2.05-28.6pp
Under 161.5
82.3%
@ 1.80+28.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.05
Betano
2.02
Marathon Be
2.01
Bet365
2.00
WilliamHill
1.91
Under
WilliamHill
1.80
Pinnacle
1.77
Bet365
1.74
Marathon Be
1.70
Betano
1.70
📊 3. Team Totals
Siena total 79Push
Over 79
63.9%
Under 79
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siena total 83 · main lineActual: Siena under 83
Over 83
47.3%
@ 1.85-2.8pp
Under 83
52.7%
@ 1.86+2.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Siena total 87Actual: Siena under 87
Over 87
31.2%
Under 87
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brown total 70Actual: Brown over 70
Over 70
27.2%
Under 70
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brown total 74 · main linePush
Over 74
15.6%
@ 1.85-34.5pp
Under 74
84.4%
@ 1.86+34.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Brown total 78Actual: Brown under 78
Over 78
8.1%
Under 78
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Siena -13.5Actual: Brown +13.5
SIE -13.5
65.9%
@ 2.26+23.6pp
BROW +13.5
34.1%
@ 1.66-23.6pp
Best 5 market prices
SIE
Pinnacle
2.26
Betano
2.22
Bet365
2.12
BROW
Pinnacle
1.66
Bet365
1.64
Betano
1.57
Spread Siena -10.5 · main lineActual: Brown +10.5
SIE -10.5
75.1%
@ 1.88+24.2pp
BROW +10.5
24.9%
@ 2.00-24.2pp
Best 5 market prices
SIE
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.83
SBO
1.78
BROW
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.95
SBO
1.93
Marathon Be
1.88
Spread Siena -7.5Actual: Brown +7.5
SIE -7.5
82.7%
@ 1.73+24.3pp
BROW +7.5
17.3%
@ 2.60-24.3pp
Best 5 market prices
SIE
1xBet
1.73
Marathon Be
1.70
Pinnacle
1.64
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.45
BROW
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.40
Pinnacle
2.30
1xBet
2.00
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
SienaBrown
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Siena) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Siena win
SIE win
no forecast
@ 1.39
BROW win
no forecast
@ 3.00
2nd half Spread Siena -4.5 · main lineActual: Siena -4.5
SIE -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
BROW +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half Over/Under 82.5 · main lineActual: Under 82.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
Siena 2nd half total 43.5 · main lineActual: Siena over 43.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Brown 2nd half total 38.5 · main lineActual: Brown under 38.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half Spread Siena -5.5Actual: Siena -5.5
SIE -5.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
BROW +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
2nd half Spread Siena -3.5Actual: Siena -3.5
SIE -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
BROW +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Siena (regulation)
SIE
no forecast
@ 1.42
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.50
BROW
no forecast
@ 3.05
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Brown under 69.5
70.4%
2.95
Bet365
3.10
Betano
2.80
-
-
-
+39.2pp
Lost
Brown under 71.5
76.8%
2.40
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.30
-
-
-
+38.3pp
Lost
Brown under 70.5
73.7%
2.55
Betano
2.55
-
-
-
-
+38.3pp
Lost
Brown under 72.5
79.7%
2.10
Betano
2.10
-
-
-
-
+36.5pp
Lost
Brown under 75
86.6%
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.82
-
-
-
-
+35.8pp
Won
Under 156
72.6%
2.50
Bet365
2.50
-
-
-
-
+35.1pp
Won
Under 155
70.5%
2.62
Bet365
2.62
-
-
-
-
+35.0pp
Won
Brown under 74
84.4%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+34.5pp
Push
Brown under 73.5
82.3%
1.97
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.96
-
-
-
+34.3pp
Lost
Brown under 74.5
84.7%
1.84
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
+33.7pp
Won
Brown under 75.5
86.9%
1.79
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.75
+33.1pp
Won
Under 155.5
71.1%
2.28
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.30
WilliamHill
2.00
-
-
+31.2pp
Won
Under 157
74.7%
2.11
Bet365
2.25
Pinnacle
2.15
Marathon Bet
1.92
-
-
+30.5pp
Won
Brown under 76.5
88.8%
1.55
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
-
+30.4pp
Won
Under 158
76.6%
1.97
Bet365
2.12
Pinnacle
2.04
SBO
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.84
-
+30.0pp
Won
Under 157.5
75.2%
1.99
Bet365
2.22
Pinnacle
2.09
Betano
2.05
Marathon Bet
1.89
WilliamHill
1.85
+29.7pp
Won
Under 159
78.5%
1.96
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Bet
1.94
Pinnacle
1.94
SBO
1.93
-
+29.4pp
Won
Under 158.5
77.1%
1.96
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.00
WilliamHill
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.99
Pinnacle
1.99
+29.3pp
Won
Under 160
80.3%
1.86
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.82
-
+28.7pp
Won
Under 163
85.1%
1.64
Marathon Bet
1.64
Bet365
1.64
-
-
-
+28.7pp
Won
Under 159.5
78.9%
1.89
Bet365
2.00
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.88
+28.6pp
Won
Under 162
83.6%
1.70
Pinnacle
1.73
Bet365
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.66
-
-
+28.6pp
Won
Under 161.5
82.3%
1.74
WilliamHill
1.80
Pinnacle
1.77
Bet365
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.70
Betano
1.70
+28.6pp
Won
Brown under 77.5
90.5%
1.48
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
+28.1pp
Won
Under 161
82.0%
1.78
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathon Bet
1.74
-
+28.1pp
Won
Under 160.5
80.6%
1.82
Bet365
1.90
1xBet
1.83
SBO
1.81
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
+27.9pp
Won
Siena -12
71.3%
2.02
Pinnacle
2.19
Marathon Bet
2.02
Bet365
1.93
SBO
1.93
-
+27.6pp
Lost
Under 162.5
83.8%
1.63
Bet365
1.66
Betano
1.62
Marathon Bet
1.62
-
-
+27.6pp
Won
Under 164
86.5%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+27.6pp
Won
Under 163.5
85.3%
1.58
Bet365
1.60
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
+26.7pp
Won
Brown under 78.5
92.0%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+26.5pp
Won
Siena -11.5
72.2%
1.93
Pinnacle
2.09
Marathon Bet
1.97
Betano
1.95
SBO
1.93
1xBet
1.91
+26.3pp
Lost
Siena -11
74.3%
1.87
Pinnacle
1.99
Marathon Bet
1.90
SBO
1.85
Bet365
1.74
-
+26.0pp
Lost
Brown under 80.5
94.4%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+25.9pp
Won
Under 164.5
86.6%
1.52
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+25.8pp
Won
Siena -8.5
80.3%
1.68
SBO
1.78
Pinnacle
1.76
BetVictor
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.69
Betano
1.57
+25.8pp
Lost
Siena -8
82.3%
1.64
Marathon Bet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.47
-
-
+25.7pp
Lost
Under 156.5
73.2%
2.02
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.18
Marathon Bet
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.83
+25.3pp
Won
Under 165
87.8%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+25.3pp
Won
Under 166
89.0%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+24.8pp
Won
Siena -7.5
82.7%
1.60
1xBet
1.73
Marathon Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.64
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.45
+24.3pp
Lost
Under 165.5
87.9%
1.46
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+24.2pp
Won
Brown under 79.5
93.3%
1.33
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+24.2pp
Won
Siena -10.5
75.1%
1.80
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.85
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.83
SBO
1.78
+24.2pp
Lost
Siena -10
77.2%
1.80
SBO
1.93
Pinnacle
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.79
Bet365
1.66
-
+24.1pp
Lost
Under 167
90.1%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+23.8pp
Won
Under 166.5
89.1%
1.40
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+23.3pp
Won
Under 167.5
90.2%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+23.2pp
Won
Siena -9
79.8%
1.70
SBO
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.57
-
+22.8pp
Lost
Siena -9.5
77.8%
1.76
SBO
1.85
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.73
+22.6pp
Lost
Under 168
91.1%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+21.6pp
Won
Under 168.5
91.2%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+20.7pp
Won
Brown under 81.5
95.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+20.1pp
Won
Siena -6.5
84.9%
1.40
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+18.6pp
Lost
Siena -7
84.5%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+18.3pp
Lost
Under 170.5
93.0%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+18.2pp
Won
Siena -2
93.0%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+17.7pp
Won
Siena -3.5
90.4%
1.27
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+17.7pp
Won
Under 169.5
92.1%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+17.6pp
Won
Siena -5.5
86.9%
1.33
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+17.5pp
Lost
Siena -1.5
93.1%
1.22
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
+16.9pp
Won
Siena -2.5
91.7%
1.24
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
+16.7pp
Won
Siena -6
86.6%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+16.6pp
Lost
Siena (regulation)
93.0%
1.17
Marathon Bet
1.18
Betano
1.17
-
-
-
+16.5pp
Won
Siena -4.5
88.7%
1.27
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
+16.2pp
Won
Siena -5
88.5%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+15.7pp
Push
Siena -3
91.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+15.4pp
Won
Siena -4
90.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+14.3pp
Won
Under 175.5
96.2%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+13.1pp
Won
Under 174.5
95.7%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+12.6pp
Won
Siena under 91.5
82.3%
1.31
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
+12.6pp
Won
Siena under 89.5
76.6%
1.43
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
+12.3pp
Won
Siena under 93.5
87.0%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Won
Siena under 90.5
79.5%
1.34
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+11.3pp
Won
Siena under 88.5
73.3%
1.48
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Won
Siena win
94.0%
1.15
Marathon Bet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.16
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
+11.1pp
Won
Siena under 92.5
84.8%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+10.0pp
Won
Siena under 94.5
89.0%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
Under 180.5
98.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Siena under 95.5
90.8%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+9.3pp
Won
Under 179.5
97.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Won
Siena under 97.5
93.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Won
Siena under 96.5
92.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Won
Siena +3.5
96.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Won
Siena under 98.5
94.8%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
Siena +8.5
98.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Overtime: no
98.6%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Siena over 69.5
90.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Siena over 70.5
88.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
Siena over 71.5
86.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Siena over 72.5
84.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-3.9pp
Won
Siena over 73.5
81.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-5.6pp
Won
Siena over 74.5
78.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
Siena over 75.5
75.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-5.8pp
Won
Siena over 76.5
72.4%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
-7.1pp
Won
Over 134.5
77.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-15.0pp
Won
Brown over 56.5
77.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-15.9pp
Won
Over 135.5
75.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-17.0pp
Won
Brown over 57.5
74.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-17.5pp
Won
Brown over 58.5
71.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-20.1pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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