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SMU Mustangs vs Duke Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 04 Jan 2025
Tip-off: 19:15
Final 62-89
32-41 30-48
Position#58
Record11-2
FormWWWWW
Points / game87.2
Allowed / game70.8
vs
Duke 🏆
USA
Position#7
Record11-2
FormWWWWW
Points / game79.6
Allowed / game59.0
USANCAA
Other2024-25
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

SMU Mustangs winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Duke winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SMU MustangsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Butler
#266
L
70-81
70
81
-11
A16/11
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#364
W
110-69
110
69
+41
H19/11
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#116
L
79-84
79
84
-5
H23/11
NCAA
California Baptist
#179
W
79-77
79
77
+2
A27/11
NCAA
Washington State
#148
W
77-60
77
60
+17
A28/11
NCAA
Alabama State
#156
W
101-72
101
72
+29
H04/12
NCAA
Virginia
#230
W
63-51
63
51
+12
H07/12
NCAA
LSU
#255
W
74-64
74
64
+10
H14/12
NCAA
Boston College
#298
W
103-77
103
77
+26
A21/12
NCAA
Longwood
#151
W
98-82
98
82
+16
H29/12
NCAA
1H
2H
33-36
37-45
51-46
59-23
38-33
41-51
45-32
34-45
27-31
50-29
49-39
52-33
30-28
33-23
27-33
47-31
47-40
56-37
45-43
53-39
157.1Avg total
85.4Scored
71.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)87.270.8157.9+16.485%
Season at home (9)89.369.4158.8+19.989%
Season away (4)82.273.8156.0+8.575%
Last 10 (10)85.471.7157.1+13.780%
Last 5 (5)87.869.2157.0+18.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀no games
vs Similar (7)77.375.1152.4+2.143%
vs Weaker (22)83.771.6155.3+12.177%
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wofford
#169
W
86-35
86
35
+51
H16/11
NCAA
Arizona
#88
W
69-55
69
55
+14
A23/11
NCAA
Kansas
#114
L
72-75
72
75
-3
H27/11
NCAA
Seattle
#252
W
70-48
70
48
+22
H30/11
NCAA
Auburn
#12
W
84-78
84
78
+6
H05/12
NCAA
Louisville
#26
W
76-65
76
65
+11
A08/12
NCAA
Incarnate Word
#190
W
72-46
72
46
+26
H11/12
NCAA
George Mason
#31
W
68-47
68
47
+21
H18/12
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#196
W
82-56
82
56
+26
A21/12
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#286
W
88-65
88
65
+23
H31/12
NCAA
1H
2H
51-14
35-21
34-27
35-28
39-41
33-34
37-25
33-23
43-36
41-42
33-37
43-28
28-21
44-25
25-16
43-31
41-36
41-20
37-27
51-38
133.7Avg total
76.7Scored
57.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)79.659.0138.6+20.685%
Season at home (10)80.859.1139.9+21.780%
Season away (3)75.758.7134.3+17.0100%
Last 10 (10)76.757.0133.7+19.790%
Last 5 (5)77.255.8133.0+21.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)74.866.0140.8+8.860%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)77.961.9139.8+16.080%
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-14-7+0+7+141st half1st half: +3.1+3.11st half: +8.8+8.82nd half2nd half: +10.6+10.62nd half: +10.9+10.9
-14-7+0+7+141st half1st half: +3.1+3.11st half: +8.8+8.82nd half2nd half: +10.6+10.62nd half: +10.9+10.9
SMU MustangsDuke
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
SMU MustangsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Butler
#266
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A16/11
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#364
W
51-46
51
46
+5
H19/11
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#116
W
38-33
38
33
+5
H23/11
NCAA
California Baptist
#179
W
45-32
45
32
+13
A27/11
NCAA
Washington State
#148
L
27-31
27
31
-4
A28/11
NCAA
Alabama State
#156
W
49-39
49
39
+10
H04/12
NCAA
Virginia
#230
W
30-28
30
28
+2
H07/12
NCAA
LSU
#255
L
27-33
27
33
-6
H14/12
NCAA
Boston College
#298
W
47-40
47
40
+7
A21/12
NCAA
Longwood
#151
W
45-43
45
43
+2
H29/12
NCAA
75.3Avg total
39.2Scored
36.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.634.573.1+4.167%-
Last 30 at home (18)39.733.373.0+6.383%-
Last 30 away (12)36.936.273.2+0.742%-
Last 10 (10)39.236.175.3+3.170%-
Last 5 (5)39.636.676.2+3.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀no games
vs Similar (7)37.435.172.6+2.343%-
vs Weaker (22)38.534.072.5+4.473%-
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wofford
#169
W
51-14
51
14
+37
H16/11
NCAA
Arizona
#88
W
34-27
34
27
+7
A23/11
NCAA
Kansas
#114
L
39-41
39
41
-2
H27/11
NCAA
Seattle
#252
W
37-25
37
25
+12
H30/11
NCAA
Auburn
#12
W
43-36
43
36
+7
H05/12
NCAA
Louisville
#26
L
33-37
33
37
-4
A08/12
NCAA
Incarnate Word
#190
W
28-21
28
21
+7
H11/12
NCAA
George Mason
#31
W
25-16
25
16
+9
H18/12
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#196
W
41-36
41
36
+5
A21/12
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#286
W
37-27
37
27
+10
H31/12
NCAA
64.8Avg total
36.8Scored
28.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.528.865.3+7.783%-
Last 30 at home (20)36.927.264.2+9.685%-
Last 30 away (10)35.631.967.5+3.780%-
Last 10 (10)36.828.064.8+8.880%-
Last 5 (5)32.827.460.2+5.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)34.032.266.2+1.860%-
vs Weaker ◀ (25)37.028.165.1+8.888%-
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
SMU Mustangs wins
0
Duke wins
No previous meetings.
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/12/24HLongwood98-82
21/12/24ABoston College103-77
14/12/24HLSU74-64
07/12/24HVirginia63-51
04/12/24HAlabama State101-72
28/11/24AWashington State77-60
27/11/24ACalifornia Baptist79-77
23/11/24HMississippi St.79-84
19/11/24HPrairie View A&M110-69
16/11/24AButler70-81
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/12/24HVirginia Tech88-65
21/12/24AGeorgia Tech82-56
18/12/24HGeorge Mason68-47
11/12/24HIncarnate Word72-46
08/12/24ALouisville76-65
05/12/24HAuburn84-78
30/11/24HSeattle70-48
27/11/24HKansas72-75
23/11/24AArizona69-55
16/11/24HWofford86-35

📊 11. Overall Statistics

SMU Mustangs
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW85%
HomeLWWWW89%
AwayLWWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1394
Win %85%89%75%
Points / game87.289.382.2
Allowed / game70.869.473.8
Point differential+16.4+19.9+8.5
Avg total157.9158.8156.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+77%89%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)0% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Duke
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW85%
HomeWWWWW80%
AwayWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games13103
Win %85%80%100%
Points / game79.680.875.7
Allowed / game59.059.158.7
Point differential+20.6+21.7+17.0
Avg total138.6139.9134.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+77%70%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke1311285%79.659.0+20.6
2 SMU Mustangs1311285%87.270.8+16.4
3 Pittsburgh1311285%84.268.4+15.8
4 Clemson1411379%78.466.8+11.6
5 Wake Forest1511473%69.164.9+4.1
6 Florida State139469%78.269.2+9.1
7 Stanford139469%77.571.1+6.5
8 Louisville149564%78.471.6+6.8
9 Virginia138562%62.260.8+1.4
10 North Carolina159660%84.679.2+5.4
11 Boston College159660%71.372.3-1.1
12 NC State148657%72.866.9+5.9
13 California137654%78.576.6+1.9
14 Georgia Tech158753%77.372.6+4.7
15 Notre Dame147750%75.670.9+4.7
16 Syracuse136746%76.878.9-2.1
17 Virginia Tech146843%71.173.5-2.4
18 Miami (FL)1441029%78.475.1+3.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
SMU Mustangs323062
Duke414889
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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