South Alabama will host Ohio on 2 November 2026 in a low-scoring NCAA contest where defensive intensity and a measured pace are expected to keep points scarce; the Pythia model projects a tight 75-72 finish with a total of 146.8 points. South Alabama enters the game with a 2-3 record in its last five outings, having dropped games to Georgia Southern 85-94, Southern Miss 55-68, and won against Louisiana Monroe 89-54, while Ohio struggles with a 1-4 run, losing to Kent State 75-86, Miami (Ohio) 108-110, and UMass 82-94. The model favours the home team, assigning a 63% chance of victory versus 37% for the visitors, and it believes South Alabama will cover the -1.0 spread with a 62% probability. The over on the 153.0 line carries a 34% chance, and there is a 5% likelihood of overtime. With the projected score of 75-72, the game should see South Alabama edge Ohio by a single point, a margin that aligns with the modest spread and the modest over probability. The final score will hinge on how well each side can limit the opponent's scoring opportunities.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 77.0 | 74.4 | 151.4 | +2.6 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 75.2 | 72.0 | 147.2 | +3.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 65.0 | 91.0 | 156.0 | -26.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar (19) | 73.2 | 72.9 | 146.1 | +0.3 | 47% |
| vs Weaker (8) | 72.9 | 65.5 | 138.4 | +7.4 | 75% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 80.7 | 81.4 | 162.1 | -0.7 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 81.2 | 87.0 | 168.2 | -5.8 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (11) | 72.6 | 89.1 | 161.7 | -16.5 | 0% |
| vs Similar (14) | 79.4 | 75.9 | 155.4 | +3.5 | 64% |
| vs Weaker (4) | 80.5 | 64.0 | 144.5 | +16.5 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 71.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 33.6 | 32.4 | 66.0 | +1.2 | 47% | 33% |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 34.9 | 30.3 | 65.2 | +4.6 | 59% | 24% |
| Last 30 away (13) | 31.8 | 35.2 | 67.1 | -3.4 | 31% | 46% |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.2 | 33.3 | 68.5 | +1.9 | 50% | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.0 | 31.0 | 67.0 | +5.0 | 60% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 31.0 | 36.0 | 67.0 | -5.0 | 0% | 0% |
| vs Similar (19) | 32.2 | 33.4 | 65.6 | -1.2 | 37% | 37% |
| vs Weaker (8) | 33.5 | 30.2 | 63.8 | +3.2 | 62% | 25% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 71.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.1 | 37.5 | 73.6 | -1.4 | 47% | 60% |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 37.2 | 36.5 | 73.6 | +0.7 | 59% | 53% |
| Last 30 away (13) | 34.8 | 38.8 | 73.6 | -4.1 | 31% | 69% |
| Last 10 (10) | 38.2 | 35.4 | 73.6 | +2.8 | 50% | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 38.0 | 39.4 | 77.4 | -1.4 | 40% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (11) | 34.7 | 45.8 | 80.5 | -11.1 | 0% | 73% |
| vs Similar (14) | 35.7 | 34.1 | 69.9 | +1.6 | 64% | 57% |
| vs Weaker (4) | 37.5 | 27.2 | 64.8 | +10.2 | 100% | 25% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio under 78.5 | 75.3% | 1.66 | 1.75 | 1.70 | 1.54 | - | - | +21.6pp | Lost |
| Ohio under 77.5 | 72.2% | 1.83 | 1.86 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.83 | 1.82 | +21.2pp | Lost |
| Under 156 | 72.0% | 1.74 | 1.78 | 1.78 | 1.66 | - | - | +18.6pp | Lost |
| Under 157 | 74.0% | 1.66 | 1.71 | 1.69 | 1.58 | - | - | +18.4pp | Lost |
| Under 155.5 | 70.6% | 1.79 | 1.83 | 1.82 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.68 | +18.3pp | Lost |
| Under 156.5 | 72.6% | 1.70 | 1.75 | 1.74 | 1.70 | 1.62 | - | +18.2pp | Lost |
| Ohio under 81.5 | 83.3% | 1.39 | 1.39 | - | - | - | - | +18.1pp | Lost |
| Ohio under 79.5 | 78.2% | 1.52 | 1.55 | 1.50 | - | - | - | +17.7pp | Lost |
| Ohio under 80.5 | 80.8% | 1.43 | 1.47 | 1.44 | 1.38 | - | - | +16.3pp | Lost |
| Under 157.5 | 74.5% | 1.61 | 1.65 | 1.62 | 1.55 | - | - | +16.1pp | Lost |
| Under 162 | 82.7% | 1.38 | 1.38 | - | - | - | - | +15.7pp | Lost |
| Under 158.5 | 76.4% | 1.52 | 1.55 | 1.50 | - | - | - | +15.4pp | Lost |
| Under 162.5 | 83.0% | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.36 | - | - | - | +15.3pp | Lost |
| Under 159.5 | 78.2% | 1.46 | 1.50 | 1.43 | - | - | - | +14.9pp | Lost |
| Under 163 | 84.2% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +14.7pp | Push |
| Under 158 | 75.9% | 1.52 | 1.52 | - | - | - | - | +14.7pp | Lost |
| Under 159 | 77.8% | 1.47 | 1.47 | - | - | - | - | +14.3pp | Lost |
| Under 160.5 | 79.9% | 1.41 | 1.45 | 1.37 | - | - | - | +14.2pp | Lost |
| Ohio under 82.5 | 85.5% | 1.29 | 1.32 | 1.29 | 1.25 | - | - | +14.0pp | Lost |
| Ohio under 83.5 | 87.6% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +13.9pp | Lost |
| Under 160 | 79.5% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +13.5pp | Lost |
| Under 161.5 | 81.5% | 1.36 | 1.40 | 1.33 | - | - | - | +13.5pp | Lost |
| South Alabama +3 | 71.7% | 1.60 | 1.62 | 1.57 | - | - | - | +12.6pp | Lost |
| Under 161 | 81.2% | 1.35 | 1.35 | - | - | - | - | +12.2pp | Lost |
| South Alabama +6 | 80.4% | 1.36 | 1.36 | - | - | - | - | +12.0pp | Lost |
| South Alabama +4 | 74.8% | 1.50 | 1.50 | - | - | - | - | +11.8pp | Lost |
| Under 165.5 | 87.0% | 1.23 | 1.23 | - | - | - | - | +11.7pp | Won |
| South Alabama +3.5 | 72.5% | 1.53 | 1.54 | 1.52 | - | - | - | +11.7pp | Lost |
| South Alabama +5.5 | 78.4% | 1.39 | 1.40 | 1.38 | - | - | - | +11.7pp | Lost |
| South Alabama +4.5 | 75.6% | 1.46 | 1.47 | 1.44 | - | - | - | +11.7pp | Lost |
| South Alabama +6.5 | 80.9% | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.33 | - | - | - | +11.6pp | Lost |
| South Alabama +5 | 77.7% | 1.41 | 1.41 | - | - | - | - | +11.6pp | Lost |
| South Alabama +7.5 | 83.3% | 1.28 | 1.28 | - | - | - | - | +11.2pp | Lost |
| South Alabama +9.5 | 87.2% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +11.1pp | Won |
| South Alabama +11.5 | 90.4% | 1.16 | 1.16 | - | - | - | - | +10.9pp | Won |
| South Alabama +8.5 | 85.4% | 1.23 | 1.23 | - | - | - | - | +10.1pp | Lost |
| Under 163.5 | 84.4% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +9.9pp | Won |
| Ohio under 84.5 | 89.4% | 1.16 | 1.16 | - | - | - | - | +9.9pp | Lost |
| South Alabama +16.5 | 95.5% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | +8.4pp | Won |
| South Alabama +14.5 | 93.9% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | +8.3pp | Won |
| Under 170.5 | 92.1% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | +8.3pp | Won |
| South Alabama +13.5 | 92.9% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | +7.8pp | Won |
| South Alabama +19.5 | 97.2% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +7.6pp | Won |
| South Alabama +21.5 | 98.0% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +7.6pp | Won |
| South Alabama +18.5 | 96.7% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +7.4pp | Won |
| Under 168.5 | 90.3% | 1.12 | 1.12 | - | - | - | - | +7.2pp | Won |
| South Alabama under 81.5 | 72.9% | 1.40 | 1.42 | 1.37 | - | - | - | +7.1pp | Won |
| South Alabama under 82.5 | 76.0% | 1.32 | 1.34 | 1.30 | - | - | - | +6.8pp | Won |
| Under 175.5 | 95.4% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | +6.7pp | Won |
| South Alabama +24.5 | 98.8% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +6.6pp | Won |
| South Alabama +23.5 | 98.6% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +6.3pp | Won |
| Under 167.5 | 89.3% | 1.12 | 1.12 | - | - | - | - | +6.2pp | Won |
| South Alabama under 83.5 | 79.0% | 1.27 | 1.29 | 1.25 | - | - | - | +5.9pp | Won |
| Under 173.5 | 94.3% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | +5.6pp | Won |
| Overtime: no | 94.9% | 1.04 | 1.06 | 1.03 | - | - | - | +5.2pp | - |
| South Alabama under 86.5 | 86.4% | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.14 | - | - | - | +5.0pp | Won |
| Under 172.5 | 93.6% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | +4.9pp | Won |
| South Alabama under 85.5 | 84.2% | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.16 | - | - | - | +4.7pp | Won |
| South Alabama under 91.5 | 94.3% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +4.7pp | Won |
| South Alabama under 87.5 | 88.4% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | +4.6pp | Won |
| South Alabama under 89.5 | 91.8% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | +4.3pp | Won |
| Ohio +23.5 | 95.1% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +3.6pp | Won |
| Ohio +21.5 | 93.4% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +3.2pp | Won |
| Ohio +20.5 | 92.3% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +2.7pp | Won |
| Ohio +18.5 | 89.8% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | +0.8pp | Won |
| Ohio +16.5 | 86.5% | 1.08 | 1.08 | - | - | - | - | -0.1pp | Won |
| South Alabama over 62.5 | 89.5% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | -0.7pp | Won |
| South Alabama over 63.5 | 87.6% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -1.4pp | Won |
| Ohio +15.5 | 84.6% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | -1.5pp | Won |
| South Alabama over 64.5 | 85.5% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | -2.4pp | Won |
| Ohio over 58.5 | 89.6% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -2.6pp | Won |
| South Alabama over 65.5 | 83.2% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | -2.9pp | Won |
| Ohio +13.5 | 80.3% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | -3.6pp | Won |
| Ohio +11.5 | 75.1% | 1.18 | 1.18 | - | - | - | - | -3.8pp | Won |
| South Alabama over 67.5 | 77.8% | 1.13 | 1.14 | 1.13 | - | - | - | -4.0pp | Won |
| South Alabama over 66.5 | 80.6% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | -4.4pp | Won |
| Ohio over 59.5 | 87.8% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -4.5pp | Won |
| South Alabama over 69.5 | 71.6% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | -4.6pp | Won |
| Over 127.5 | 87.8% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -4.9pp | Won |
| Ohio +10.5 | 72.2% | 1.20 | 1.20 | - | - | - | - | -5.6pp | Won |
| South Alabama over 68.5 | 74.8% | 1.15 | 1.16 | 1.14 | - | - | - | -5.7pp | Won |
| Over 128.5 | 86.5% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -6.2pp | Won |
| Ohio over 60.5 | 85.7% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -6.6pp | Won |
| Ohio over 61.5 | 83.3% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -7.4pp | Won |
| Over 130.5 | 83.7% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -8.5pp | Won |
| Over 132.5 | 80.5% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -9.2pp | Won |
| Ohio over 62.5 | 80.7% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | -9.7pp | Won |
| Ohio over 63.5 | 77.9% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -10.8pp | Won |
| Over 133.5 | 78.7% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -10.9pp | Won |
| Ohio over 64.5 | 74.9% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -13.8pp | Won |
| Over 137.5 | 70.9% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | -14.1pp | Won |
| Over 135.5 | 75.0% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -14.4pp | Won |
| Ohio over 65.5 | 71.7% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | -14.4pp | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 | H | Georgia Southern | 85-94 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Southern Miss | 55-68 |
| 26/02/26 | H | Louisiana Monroe | 89-54 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Troy | 65-54 |
| 20/02/26 | H | Texas State | 82-90 OT |
| 17/02/26 | A | Marshall | 80-84 |
| 14/02/26 | A | Arkansas State | 92-88 OT |
| 13/02/26 | A | Southern Miss | 84-78 |
| 07/02/26 | H | Buffalo | 81-69 |
| 04/02/26 | A | Appalachian State | 57-65 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03/26 | A | Kent State | 75-86 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Miami (Ohio) | 108-110 OT |
| 04/03/26 | A | UMass | 82-94 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Toledo | 67-79 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Northern Illinois | 74-66 |
| 18/02/26 | H | Ball State | 69-57 |
| 14/02/26 | A | Miami (Ohio) | 74-90 |
| 08/02/26 | A | Old Dominion | 72-78 |
| 04/02/26 | H | Western Michigan | 91-71 |
| 31/01/26 | A | Buffalo | 95-83 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over 154.5 | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over 154.5 | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marshall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 92.0 | 65.0 | +27.0 |
| 2 | Georgia Southern | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 67.0 | 55.0 | +12.0 |
| 3 | Old Dominion | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 61.0 | 49.0 | +12.0 |
| 4 | Coastal Carolina | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 70.0 | 71.0 | -1.0 |
| 5 | Georgia State | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 73.0 | 76.0 | -3.0 |
| 6 | Louisiana Monroe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 78.0 | 83.0 | -5.0 |
| 7 | James Madison | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 77.0 | 86.0 | -9.0 |
| 8 | Troy | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 60.0 | 71.0 | -11.0 |
| 9 | Appalachian State | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 49.0 | 63.0 | -14.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UMass | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 71.0 | 60.0 | +11.0 |
| 2 | Miami (Ohio) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 86.0 | 77.0 | +9.0 |
| 3 | Central Michigan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 83.0 | 78.0 | +5.0 |
| 4 | Bowling Green | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 76.0 | 73.0 | +3.0 |
| 5 | Eastern Michigan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 71.0 | 70.0 | +1.0 |
| 6 | Northern Illinois | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 87.0 | 89.0 | -2.0 |
| 7 | Kent State | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 75.0 | 85.0 | -10.0 |
| 8 | Ball State | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 55.0 | 67.0 | -12.0 |
| 9 | Western Michigan | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 49.0 | 61.0 | -12.0 |
| 10 | Buffalo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 65.0 | 92.0 | -27.0 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Alabama | 35 | 42 | 77 |
| Ohio | 34 | 52 | 86 |
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