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Ohio vs Toledo Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 28 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 21:00
Final 67-79
28-41 39-38
Position#241
Record15-13
FormWLLWW
Points / game77.1
Allowed / game76.6
Ohio
USA
vs
Toledo 🏆
USA
Position#156
Record15-13
FormLWWLW
Points / game81.2
Allowed / game77.2
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Ohio v Toledo
02 Dec 2026
OHIO v TOLE
upcoming
28 Feb 2026
OHIO67
TOLE79
28 Jan 2025
OHIO83
TOLE86
02 Jan 2024
OHIO77
TOLE86
21 Jan 2022
OHIO69
TOLE87
21 Jan 2020
OHIO74
TOLE83
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ohio winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Toledo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

OhioUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ball State
#288
L
71-76
71
76
-5
A17/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
W
80-77
80
77
+3
H21/01
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
65-86
65
86
-21
H24/01
NCAA
Kent State
#52
L
57-72
57
72
-15
A28/01
NCAA
Buffalo
#180
W
95-83
95
83
+12
A31/01
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
91-71
91
71
+20
H04/02
NCAA
Old Dominion
#300
L
72-78
72
78
-6
A08/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
74-90
74
90
-16
A14/02
NCAA
Ball State
#288
W
69-57
69
57
+12
H18/02
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
W
74-66
74
66
+8
A21/02
NCAA
1H
2H
31-44
40-32
32-30
48-47
26-48
39-38
24-28
33-44
46-31
49-52
44-28
47-43
35-40
37-38
35-43
39-47
32-15
37-42
37-25
37-41
150.4Avg total
74.8Scored
75.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)77.176.6153.8+0.554%
Season at home (17)79.073.7152.7+5.365%
Season away (11)74.381.2155.5-6.936%
Last 10 (10)74.875.6150.4-0.850%
Last 5 (5)76.072.4148.4+3.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)70.686.2156.8-15.610%
vs Similar (13)79.274.5153.8+4.769%
vs Weaker (6)81.573.7155.2+7.867%
This opponent (Toledo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ToledoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Leonesa
#19
W
73-54
73
54
+19
H01/02
Segunda FEB
Kent State
#52
L
72-75
72
75
-3
H04/02
NCAA
Ponferrada
#14
L
63-89
63
89
-26
A07/02
Segunda FEB
James Madison
#169
L
71-73
71
73
-2
A07/02
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
90-79
90
79
+11
A12/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
L
70-80
70
80
-10
A14/02
NCAA
Caja 87
#4
W
80-79 OT
80
79
+1
H15/02
Segunda FEB
Eastern Michigan
#322
W
94-75
94
75
+19
H21/02
NCAA
Jaen
#23
L
64-67
64
67
-3
A22/02
Segunda FEB
Northern Illinois
#342
W
79-69
79
69
+10
H25/02
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-13
12-12
15-19
21-10
0-0
36-29
0-0
36-46
16-29
11-25
16-13
20-22
0-0
32-32
0-0
39-41
0-0
50-41
0-0
40-38
0-0
35-37
0-0
35-43
13-13
8-16
30-17
18-23
0-0
51-29
0-0
43-46
11-21
19-14
13-17
21-15
0-0
36-31
0-0
43-38
149.6Avg total
75.6Scored
74.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)81.277.2158.5+4.054%
Season at home (14)84.374.4158.6+9.971%
Season away (14)78.280.1158.3-1.936%
Last 10 (10)75.674.0149.6+1.650%
Last 5 (5)77.474.0151.4+3.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)73.284.4157.6-11.220%
vs Similar (12)79.481.7161.1-2.233%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)82.271.6153.8+10.683%
This opponent (Ohio) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: +1.0+1.01st half: +1.3+1.32nd half2nd half: -1.8-1.82nd half: +0.2+0.2
-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: +1.0+1.01st half: +1.3+1.32nd half2nd half: -1.8-1.82nd half: +0.2+0.2
OhioToledo
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
OhioLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ball State
#288
L
31-44
31
44
-13
A17/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
W
32-30
32
30
+2
H21/01
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
26-48
26
48
-22
H24/01
NCAA
Kent State
#52
L
24-28
24
28
-4
A28/01
NCAA
Buffalo
#180
W
46-31
46
31
+15
A31/01
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
44-28
44
28
+16
H04/02
NCAA
Old Dominion
#300
L
35-40
35
40
-5
A08/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
35-43
35
43
-8
A14/02
NCAA
Ball State
#288
W
32-15
32
15
+17
H18/02
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
W
37-25
37
25
+12
A21/02
NCAA
67.4Avg total
34.2Scored
33.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.936.772.6-0.847%-
Last 30 at home (17)36.834.671.4+2.265%-
Last 30 away (13)34.739.574.2-4.823%-
Last 10 (10)34.233.267.4+1.050%-
Last 5 (5)36.630.266.8+6.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)33.843.277.0-9.410%-
vs Similar (13)35.533.969.4+1.562%-
vs Weaker (6)37.732.570.2+5.267%-
This opponent (Toledo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ToledoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Leonesa
#19
W
37-25
37
25
+12
H01/02
Segunda FEB
Kent State
#52
W
36-29
36
29
+7
H04/02
NCAA
Ponferrada
#14
L
27-54
27
54
-27
A07/02
Segunda FEB
James Madison
#169
D
32-32
32
32
+0
A07/02
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
50-41
50
41
+9
A12/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
L
35-37
35
37
-2
A14/02
NCAA
Caja 87
#4
L
21-29
21
29
-8
H15/02
Segunda FEB
Eastern Michigan
#322
W
51-29
51
29
+22
H21/02
NCAA
Jaen
#23
L
30-35
30
35
-5
A22/02
Segunda FEB
Northern Illinois
#342
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H25/02
NCAA
69.7Avg total
35.5Scored
34.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.837.376.1+1.557%-
Last 30 at home (14)40.035.475.4+4.671%-
Last 30 away (16)37.838.976.7-1.244%-
Last 10 (10)35.534.269.7+1.350%-
Last 5 (5)34.632.266.8+2.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)37.446.083.4-8.640%-
vs Similar (12)36.836.373.2+0.550%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)40.535.475.9+5.167%-
This opponent (Ohio) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Ohio wins
10
Toledo wins
DateGameScore
14/01/26Toledo v Ohio101-85
13/03/25Toledo v Ohio90-85 OT
08/03/25Toledo v Ohio96-82
29/01/25Ohio v Toledo83-86
17/02/24Toledo v Ohio85-83
03/01/24Ohio v Toledo77-86
10/03/23Toledo v Ohio82-75
18/01/23Toledo v Ohio90-75
09/02/22Toledo v Ohio77-62
21/01/22Ohio v Toledo69-87
Ohiolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/02/26ANorthern Illinois74-66
18/02/26HBall State69-57
14/02/26AMiami (Ohio)74-90
08/02/26AOld Dominion72-78
04/02/26HWestern Michigan91-71
31/01/26ABuffalo95-83
28/01/26AKent State57-72
24/01/26HAkron65-86
21/01/26HNorthern Illinois80-77
17/01/26ABall State71-76
Toledolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/02/26HNorthern Illinois79-69
22/02/26AJaen64-67
21/02/26HEastern Michigan94-75
15/02/26HCaja 8780-79 OT
14/02/26ABowling Green70-80
12/02/26AWestern Michigan90-79
07/02/26AJames Madison71-73
07/02/26APonferrada63-89
04/02/26HKent State72-75
01/02/26HLeonesa73-54

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Ohio
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW54%
HomeWWLWW65%
AwayLWLLW36%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281711
Win %54%65%36%
Points / game77.179.074.3
Allowed / game76.673.781.2
Point differential+0.5+5.3-6.9
Avg total153.8152.7155.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%35%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won62% (8)67% (6)50% (2)
Overtime %4%6%0%
Toledo
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW54%
HomeWWLWW71%
AwayLLLWL36%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281414
Win %54%71%36%
Points / game81.284.378.2
Allowed / game77.274.480.1
Point differential+4.0+9.9-1.9
Avg total158.5158.6158.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+36%50%21%
Close games (≤5 pts) won30% (10)50% (4)17% (6)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Miami (Ohio)29290100%90.973.9+17.0
2 Akron2924583%89.974.7+15.2
3 Kent State2920969%84.880.4+4.4
4 Bowling Green30171357%81.671.5+10.2
5 Buffalo29161355%78.575.8+2.7
6 Toledo28151354%81.277.2+4.0
7 Ohio28151354%77.176.6+0.5
8 UMass30151550%80.077.3+2.7
9 Eastern Michigan29101934%70.973.4-2.6
10 Central Michigan29101934%73.976.6-2.8
11 Western Michigan29101934%74.879.4-4.7
12 Northern Illinois2791833%70.876.3-5.4
13 Ball State2891932%66.270.4-4.1
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Ohio283967
Toledo413879
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