PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
South Florida hosts Tennessee State on 17 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model naming the Bulls the clear favourite, a 97% chance of victory, thanks to their 1-2 record and 86.0 points per game against 78.7 allowed, while the Volunteers boast a 2-1 record and 104.7 points per game but have allowed 76.0, a higher scoring output that nevertheless falls short of South Florida's defensive consistency; South Florida's home record is 1-1 with 89.0 points per game and 77.0 allowed, and their last five games show two wins and three losses, including a 98-71 triumph over Charleston Southern, a 80-83 loss to Saint Josephs Hawks, and a 80-82 defeat to DePaul; Tennessee State's last five feature three wins and two losses, with a 123-73 win over Fisk, a 127-61 victory over EWU Phantoms, and a 64-94 loss to Murray State; the projected score is 94-72, giving a total of 166.1 points, and the model assigns a 1% chance of overtime.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 86.0 | 78.7 | 164.7 | +7.3 | 33% |
| Season at home (2) | 89.0 | 77.0 | 166.0 | +12.0 | 50% |
| Season away (1) | 80.0 | 82.0 | 162.0 | -2.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 83.7 | 70.5 | 154.2 | +13.2 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 81.4 | 74.8 | 156.2 | +6.6 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (1) | 80.0 | 82.0 | 162.0 | -2.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar (7) | 84.7 | 78.9 | 163.6 | +5.9 | 57% |
| vs Weaker (21) | 85.0 | 73.8 | 158.8 | +11.2 | 81% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 104.7 | 76.0 | 180.7 | +28.7 | 67% |
| Season at home (3) | 104.7 | 76.0 | 180.7 | +28.7 | 67% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 86.4 | 70.4 | 156.8 | +16.0 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 96.2 | 80.6 | 176.8 | +15.6 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 74.0 | 108.0 | 182.0 | -34.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar (10) | 76.9 | 71.7 | 148.6 | +5.2 | 70% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (19) | 84.8 | 73.1 | 157.8 | +11.7 | 79% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 40.5 | 35.6 | 76.1 | +4.8 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 41.7 | 33.9 | 75.6 | +7.8 | 72% | - |
| Last 30 away (12) | 38.7 | 38.2 | 76.9 | +0.4 | 42% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 39.5 | 36.2 | 75.7 | +3.3 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 34.4 | 37.0 | 71.4 | -2.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (1) | 35.0 | 50.0 | 85.0 | -15.0 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 39.4 | 34.6 | 74.0 | +4.9 | 57% | - |
| vs Weaker (21) | 40.1 | 35.5 | 75.6 | +4.6 | 62% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.1 | 35.3 | 73.4 | +2.7 | 57% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 40.5 | 35.4 | 75.9 | +5.1 | 62% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 35.3 | 35.3 | 70.6 | +0.0 | 50% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 41.3 | 35.4 | 76.7 | +5.9 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 45.4 | 39.8 | 85.2 | +5.6 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 29.0 | 55.0 | 84.0 | -26.0 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 36.7 | 35.5 | 72.2 | +1.2 | 40% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (19) | 39.3 | 34.2 | 73.5 | +5.1 | 68% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | H | Saint Josephs Hawks | 80-83 |
| 06/11/26 | A | DePaul | 80-82 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Charleston Southern | 98-71 |
| 19/03/26 | A | Louisville | 79-83 |
| 15/03/26 | H | Wichita State | 70-55 |
| 14/03/26 | H | Charlotte | 86-64 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Charlotte | 83-60 |
| 06/03/26 | A | Memphis | 96-89 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Tulane | 90-62 |
| 26/02/26 | A | Rice | 75-56 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | H | Fisk | 123-73 |
| 06/11/26 | H | EWU Phantoms | 127-61 |
| 02/11/26 | H | Murray State | 64-94 |
| 20/03/26 | A | Iowa State | 74-108 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Morehead State | 93-67 |
| 07/03/26 | H | UT Martin | 68-55 |
| 28/02/26 | A | UT Martin | 67-42 |
| 27/02/26 | A | Southeast Missouri State | 79-71 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Siu Edwardsville | 80-53 |
| 20/02/26 | H | Lindenwood | 89-80 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLL | 33% |
| Home | WL | 50% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Points / game | 86.0 | 89.0 | 80.0 |
| Allowed / game | 78.7 | 77.0 | 82.0 |
| Point differential | +7.3 | +12.0 | -2.0 |
| Avg total | 164.7 | 166.0 | 162.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (2) | 0% (1) | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWW | 67% |
| Home | LWW | 67% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 3 | - |
| Win % | 67% | 67% | - |
| Points / game | 104.7 | 104.7 | - |
| Allowed / game | 76.0 | 76.0 | - |
| Point differential | +28.7 | +28.7 | - |
| Avg total | 180.7 | 180.7 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 67% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tulsa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 90.7 | 65.3 | +25.3 |
| 2 |  North Texas | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 90.0 | 64.3 | +25.7 |
| 3 |  Wichita State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 92.7 | 73.3 | +19.3 |
| 4 |  East Carolina | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 76.7 | 71.7 | +5.0 |
| 5 |  Tulane | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 87.3 | 82.7 | +4.7 |
| 6 |  UAB | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 80.0 | 75.3 | +4.7 |
| 7 |  Charlotte | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 72.3 | 68.3 | +4.0 |
| 8 |  UTSA Roadrunners | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 76.7 | 74.0 | +2.7 |
| 9 |  Florida Atlantic | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 80.0 | 82.3 | -2.3 |
| 10 |  Memphis | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 83.3 | 89.7 | -6.3 |
| 11 |  Rice | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 81.3 | 72.7 | +8.7 |
| 12 | South Florida | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 86.0 | 78.7 | +7.3 |
| 13 |  Temple | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 67.3 | 75.3 | -8.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tennessee State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 104.7 | 76.0 | +28.7 |
| 2 |  Tennessee Tech | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 100.7 | 90.0 | +10.7 |
| 3 |  Southeast Missouri State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.3 | 74.0 | +7.3 |
| 4 |  Lindenwood | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 88.5 | 70.5 | +18.0 |
| 5 |  Siu Edwardsville | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 77.8 | 68.5 | +9.2 |
| 6 |  UT Martin | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 84.7 | 80.0 | +4.7 |
| 7 |  Western Illinois | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 71.7 | 67.3 | +4.3 |
| 8 |  Morehead State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.3 | 83.3 | -7.0 |
| 9 |  Southern Indiana | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 78.0 | 66.5 | +11.5 |
| 10 |  Eastern Illinois | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 69.0 | 80.0 | -11.0 |
| 11 |  UALR | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 73.3 | 86.3 | -13.0 |
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