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Spain vs Italy Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 25 Jun 2024
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 84-87 (OT)
10-14 23-14 21-22 19-23 11-14
Position-
Record-
FormWLLLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Spain
vs
Italy 🏆
Position-
Record-
FormWLLWW
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
EuropeFriendly International
Other2024
Meetings · Spain v Italy
25 Jun 2024
SPAI84
ITAL87
26 Feb 2023
SPAI68
ITAL72
06 Sep 2019
SPAI67
ITAL60
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Spain winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Italy winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSpain
Date
Competition
Netherlands
#77
W
84-72
84
72
+12
no box
H14/11
World Cup
Iceland
#31
W
80-61
80
61
+19
no box
A23/02
World Cup
Italy
#17
L
68-72
68
72
-4
no box
H26/02
World Cup
Ivory Coast
#21
W
94-64
94
64
+30
no box
H26/08
World Cup
Brazil
#23
W
96-78
96
78
+18
no box
A28/08
World Cup
Iran
#51
W
85-65
85
65
+20
no box
A30/08
World Cup
Latvia
#3
L
69-74
69
74
-5
no box
H01/09
World Cup
Canada
#4
L
85-88
85
88
-3
no box
H03/09
World Cup
Latvia
#2
L
75-79
75
79
-4
62avg 56
H22/02
EuroBasket
Belgium
#18
L
53-58
53
58
-5
51avg 56
A25/02
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-21
22-22
18-16
23-13
22-19
21-14
19-15
18-13
16-13
13-20
15-19
24-20
24-17
29-17
20-13
21-17
21-22
29-20
14-17
32-19
16-17
27-17
21-18
21-13
16-17
16-12
26-18
11-27
21-21
27-17
25-23
12-27
14-23
23-17
20-17
18-22
14-11
12-8
13-21
14-18
150.0Avg total
78.9Scored
71.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)78.971.1150.0+7.850%
Last 5 (5)73.472.8146.2+0.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)75.080.0155.0-5.00%
vs Similar (3)79.378.3157.7+1.033%
vs Weaker (23)87.071.7158.7+15.391%
ItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormItaly
Date
Competition
Spain
#7
W
72-68
72
68
+4
no box
A26/02
World Cup
Angola
#19
W
81-67
81
67
+14
no box
A25/08
World Cup
Dominican Republic
#12
L
82-87
82
87
-5
no box
H27/08
World Cup
Philippines
#44
W
90-83
90
83
+7
no box
A29/08
World Cup
Serbia
#13
W
78-76
78
76
+2
no box
A01/09
World Cup
Puerto Rico
#10
W
73-57
73
57
+16
no box
H03/09
World Cup
Latvia
#3
L
82-87
82
87
-5
no box
H07/09
World Cup
Slovenia
#24
L
85-89
85
89
-4
no box
H09/09
World Cup
Turkey
#20
W
87-80
87
80
+7
84avg 85
H22/02
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
W
83-62
83
62
+21
86avg 85
A25/02
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13-16
20-13
19-15
20-24
23-17
20-23
18-17
20-10
19-13
20-25
17-31
26-18
20-23
28-16
25-21
17-23
23-19
17-23
19-20
19-14
25-15
14-21
12-11
22-10
26-18
16-28
18-21
22-20
18-15
23-27
19-28
25-19
24-24
26-15
18-17
19-24
17-15
19-22
28-9
19-16
156.9Avg total
81.3Scored
75.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)81.375.6156.9+5.770%
Last 5 (5)82.075.0157.0+7.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)81.182.0163.1-0.944%
vs Similar (14)86.384.3170.6+2.057%
vs Weaker (7)86.670.6157.1+16.0100%

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +0.4+0.4Q1: +3.3+3.3Q2Q2: +5.5+5.5Q2: -1.0-1.0Q3Q3: +1.4+1.4Q3: +0.3+0.3Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: +3.1+3.1
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +0.4+0.4Q1: +3.3+3.3Q2Q2: +5.5+5.5Q2: -1.0-1.0Q3Q3: +1.4+1.4Q3: +0.3+0.3Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: +3.1+3.1
SpainItaly
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SpainLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Netherlands
#77
D
43-43
43
43
+0
H14/11
World Cup
Iceland
#31
W
43-33
43
33
+10
A23/02
World Cup
Italy
#17
L
29-33
29
33
-4
H26/02
World Cup
Ivory Coast
#21
W
53-34
53
34
+19
H26/08
World Cup
Brazil
#23
W
50-42
50
42
+8
A28/08
World Cup
Iran
#51
W
43-34
43
34
+9
A30/08
World Cup
Latvia
#3
W
32-29
32
29
+3
H01/09
World Cup
Canada
#4
W
48-38
48
38
+10
H03/09
World Cup
Latvia
#2
L
37-40
37
40
-3
H22/02
EuroBasket
Belgium
#18
W
26-19
26
19
+7
A25/02
EuroBasket
74.9Avg total
40.4Scored
34.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.035.077.0+7.077%-
Last 30 at home (17)43.235.578.7+7.671%-
Last 30 away (13)40.534.374.8+6.285%-
Last 10 (10)40.434.574.9+5.970%-
Last 5 (5)37.232.069.2+5.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)38.834.573.2+4.275%-
vs Similar (3)38.334.372.7+4.0100%-
vs Weaker (23)43.135.278.3+7.974%-
ItalyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Spain
#7
W
33-29
33
29
+4
A26/02
World Cup
Angola
#19
W
43-40
43
40
+3
A25/08
World Cup
Dominican Republic
#12
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H27/08
World Cup
Philippines
#44
W
48-39
48
39
+9
A29/08
World Cup
Serbia
#13
L
40-42
40
42
-2
A01/09
World Cup
Puerto Rico
#10
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H03/09
World Cup
Latvia
#3
L
42-46
42
46
-4
H07/09
World Cup
Slovenia
#24
L
41-42
41
42
-1
H09/09
World Cup
Turkey
#20
W
50-39
50
39
+11
H22/02
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
L
36-37
36
37
-1
A25/02
EuroBasket
79.9Avg total
41.1Scored
38.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.540.082.4+2.557%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.539.584.0+5.167%-
Last 30 away (15)40.440.580.9-0.147%-
Last 10 (10)41.138.879.9+2.360%-
Last 5 (5)41.640.081.6+1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)40.940.981.8+0.033%-
vs Similar (14)40.840.581.3+0.357%-
vs Weaker (7)47.937.785.6+10.186%-
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Spaintheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Spain: 63.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀29%
🏀🏀 2-pointers27.0 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.0 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.0 pts a game · 29% of the points
League average for comparison: 54.1 points a game
50%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.513.5
41.5%
55.7%27.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.06.0
27.3%
34.9%18.0
🏀 Free throws27.018.0
66.7%
71.8%18.0
They take 54.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Italytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Italy: 84.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.0 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.0 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws5.0 pts a game · 6% of the points
League average for comparison: 54.1 points a game
50%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.023.0
60.5%
55.7%46.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.511.0
41.5%
34.9%33.0
🏀 Free throws8.55.0
58.8%
71.8%5.0
They take 64.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 2/2 games with a box score before 25 Jun 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Spain
LLLLWWWLWW
Italy
WWLLWWWLWW
-6.5
Net rating
+20.6
91.2
Offensive rating
123.4
97.7
Defensive rating
102.8
41.3%
Effective FG%
61.2%
51.8%
Opp. effective FG%
54.0%
20.3%
Turnover %
19.1%
31.5%
Off. rebound %
40.6%
0.50
Free-throw rate
0.13
27.3%
3-point %
41.5%
79.5%
Assist %
73.5%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence91.2 · 123.4Defence97.7 · 102.8Shooting41.3% · 61.2%3-point %27.3% · 41.5%Ball care20.3% · 19.1%Off. rebounds31.5% · 40.6%Free throws0.50 · 0.13Form (last 10/10)50% · 70%
■ Spain   ■ Italy
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Spain wins
1
Italy wins
DateGameScore
26/02/23Spain v Italy68-72
11/11/22Italy v Spain84-88 OT
06/09/19Spain v Italy67-60
Spainlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/02/24ABelgium53-58
22/02/24HLatvia75-79
03/09/23HCanada85-88
01/09/23HLatvia69-74
30/08/23AIran85-65
28/08/23ABrazil96-78
26/08/23HIvory Coast94-64
26/02/23HItaly68-72
23/02/23AIceland80-61
14/11/22HNetherlands84-72
Italylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/02/24AHungary83-62
22/02/24HTurkey87-80
09/09/23HSlovenia85-89
07/09/23HLatvia82-87
03/09/23HPuerto Rico73-57
01/09/23ASerbia78-76
29/08/23APhilippines90-83
27/08/23HDominican Republic82-87
25/08/23AAngola81-67
26/02/23ASpain72-68

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Spain
Friendly International 2024
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Italy
Friendly International 2024
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

No league table for this competition yet.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Spain102321191184
Italy141422231487
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