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St. Marys (CA) vs Illinois State Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 03 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 03:00
Final 90-85 (OT)
33-39 44-38 13-8
Position#228
Record-
FormWWWLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
St. Marys (CA) 🏆
USA
Vs
73%
27%
■ ST. 73%■ ILLI 27%
Pythia win probability
Projected 74-67
Projected total 141.2
Illinois State
USA
Position#245
Record-
FormWLWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

St. Marys (CA) will host Illinois State on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model designating St. Marys (CA) as the favourite and projecting a 73% chance of a home win against a 27% chance for Illinois State, a 74-67 scoreline and a total of 141.2 points, a 4% chance of overtime, and a 73% probability that St. Marys (CA) covers the home line. St. Marys (CA) finished its last five games with three wins and two losses, including a 70-59 victory over Gonzaga, while Illinois State also ended its last five with three wins and two losses, highlighted by an 81-74 win over Belmont and a 71-69 win over Northern Iowa. The projected outcome reflects the model's assessment that St. Marys (CA) will edge Illinois State in this contest.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

St. Marys (CA) winWon
72.7%fair 1.38
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Illinois State winLost
27.3%fair 3.66
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

St. Marys (CA)USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Diego Toreros
#301
W
87-60
87
60
+27
H05/02
NCAA
San Francisco
#191
W
79-54
79
54
+25
H08/02
NCAA
Pepperdine
#347
W
88-60
88
60
+28
H12/02
NCAA
Pacific
#165
W
72-61
72
61
+11
A15/02
NCAA
Seattle
#108
W
72-70
72
70
+2
A19/02
NCAA
Washington State
#291
W
83-67
83
67
+16
A22/02
NCAA
Santa Clara
#39
W
86-67
86
67
+19
H26/02
NCAA
Gonzaga
#9
W
70-59
70
59
+11
H01/03
NCAA
Santa Clara
#39
L
71-76
71
76
-5
H10/03
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
L
50-63
50
63
-13
H19/03
NCAA
1H
2H
44-25
43-35
40-29
39-25
48-29
40-31
28-30
44-31
35-28
37-42
40-39
43-28
42-36
44-31
29-36
41-23
35-32
36-44
26-37
24-26
139.5Avg total
75.8Scored
63.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)75.863.7139.5+12.180%
Last 5 (5)72.066.4138.4+5.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)67.566.0133.5+1.550%
vs Similar (4)70.575.2145.8-4.825%
vs Weaker (23)77.363.9141.2+13.491%
Illinois StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Illinois
#203
L
50-54
50
54
-4
H04/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
86-76
86
76
+10
H07/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
L
80-88
80
88
-8
A10/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
W
86-64
86
64
+22
H13/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
56-83
56
83
-27
A15/02
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
78-61
78
61
+17
H19/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
60-74
60
74
-14
A22/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
71-69
71
69
+2
A26/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
W
81-74
81
74
+7
H01/03
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
52-74
52
74
-22
H07/03
NCAA
1H
2H
24-22
26-32
47-32
39-44
32-45
48-43
34-34
52-30
26-33
30-50
36-28
42-33
31-43
29-31
28-23
43-46
38-40
43-34
27-35
25-39
141.7Avg total
70.0Scored
71.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)70.071.7141.7-1.750%
Last 5 (5)68.470.4138.8-2.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)78.083.0161.0-5.00%
vs Similar (14)67.167.6134.7-0.457%
vs Weaker (14)82.169.7151.8+12.471%
Over/Under 142Actual: Over 142
Over 142
47.4%
Under 142
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 147Actual: Over 147
Over 147
35.4%
Under 147
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 152Actual: Over 152
Over 152
24.7%
Under 152
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

St. Marys (CA) total 73Actual: St. Marys (CA) over 73
Over 73
54.2%
Under 73
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St. Marys (CA) total 77Actual: St. Marys (CA) over 77
Over 77
37.8%
Under 77
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St. Marys (CA) total 81Actual: St. Marys (CA) over 81
Over 81
23.5%
Under 81
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Illinois State total 66Actual: Illinois State over 66
Over 66
54.3%
Under 66
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Illinois State total 70Actual: Illinois State over 70
Over 70
38.4%
Under 70
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Illinois State total 74Actual: Illinois State over 74
Over 74
24.4%
Under 74
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread St. Marys (CA) -3Actual: St. Marys (CA) -3
ST. -3
65.1%
ILLI +3
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
ST.
No market prices yet.
ILLI
No market prices yet.
Spread St. Marys (CA) 0Actual: St. Marys (CA) 0
ST. 0
72.7%
ILLI 0
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
ST.
No market prices yet.
ILLI
No market prices yet.
Spread St. Marys (CA) +3Actual: St. Marys (CA) +3
ST. +3
79.9%
ILLI -3
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
ST.
No market prices yet.
ILLI
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-9-5+0+5+91st half1st half: +4.6+4.61st half: -1.2-1.22nd half2nd half: +7.5+7.52nd half: -0.5-0.5
-9-5+0+5+91st half1st half: +4.6+4.61st half: -1.2-1.22nd half2nd half: +7.5+7.52nd half: -0.5-0.5
St. Marys (CA)Illinois State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
St. Marys (CA)Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Diego Toreros
#301
W
44-25
44
25
+19
H05/02
NCAA
San Francisco
#191
W
40-29
40
29
+11
H08/02
NCAA
Pepperdine
#347
W
48-29
48
29
+19
H12/02
NCAA
Pacific
#165
L
28-30
28
30
-2
A15/02
NCAA
Seattle
#108
W
35-28
35
28
+7
A19/02
NCAA
Washington State
#291
W
40-39
40
39
+1
A22/02
NCAA
Santa Clara
#39
W
42-36
42
36
+6
H26/02
NCAA
Gonzaga
#9
L
29-36
29
36
-7
H01/03
NCAA
Santa Clara
#39
W
35-32
35
32
+3
H10/03
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
L
26-37
26
37
-11
H19/03
NCAA
68.8Avg total
36.7Scored
32.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.731.468.1+5.373%-
Last 30 at home (17)38.930.469.4+8.582%-
Last 30 away (13)33.832.866.5+1.062%-
Last 10 (10)36.732.168.8+4.670%-
Last 5 (5)34.436.070.4-1.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)33.535.068.5-1.550%-
vs Similar (4)34.037.871.8-3.850%-
vs Weaker (23)37.330.367.6+7.078%-
Illinois StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Illinois
#203
W
24-22
24
22
+2
H04/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
47-32
47
32
+15
H07/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
L
32-45
32
45
-13
A10/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
D
34-34
34
34
+0
H13/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
26-33
26
33
-7
A15/02
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
36-28
36
28
+8
H19/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
31-43
31
43
-12
A22/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
28-23
28
23
+5
A26/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
38-40
38
40
-2
H01/03
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
27-35
27
35
-8
H07/03
NCAA
65.8Avg total
32.3Scored
33.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.832.067.9+3.853%-
Last 30 at home (17)38.828.467.2+10.571%-
Last 30 away (13)31.936.868.8-4.931%-
Last 10 (10)32.333.565.8-1.240%-
Last 5 (5)32.033.865.8-1.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)33.040.073.0-7.00%-
vs Similar (14)31.231.562.7-0.343%-
vs Weaker (14)39.832.872.6+7.064%-
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
St. Marys (CA) wins
0
Illinois State wins
No previous meetings.
St. Marys (CA)last 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/03/26HTexas A&M50-63
10/03/26HSanta Clara71-76
01/03/26HGonzaga70-59
26/02/26HSanta Clara86-67
22/02/26AWashington State83-67
19/02/26ASeattle72-70
15/02/26APacific72-61
12/02/26HPepperdine88-60
08/02/26HSan Francisco79-54
05/02/26HSan Diego Toreros87-60
Illinois Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/03/26HNorthern Iowa52-74
01/03/26HBelmont81-74
26/02/26ANorthern Iowa71-69
22/02/26ABradley60-74
19/02/26HMurray State78-61
15/02/26AIllinois (Chi.)56-83
13/02/26HValparaiso86-64
10/02/26AEvansville80-88
07/02/26HDrake86-76
04/02/26HSouthern Illinois50-54

📊 11. Overall Statistics

St. Marys (CA)
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Illinois State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

West Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Portland110100%133.089.0+44.0
2 Oregon State110100%102.061.0+41.0
3 San Diego Toreros110100%79.062.0+17.0
4 Pepperdine1010%85.086.0-1.0
5 Gonzaga1010%72.078.0-6.0
6 Washington State1010%61.076.0-15.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Illinois (Chi.)110100%96.047.0+49.0
2 Bradley110100%85.041.0+44.0
3 Southern Illinois110100%82.040.0+42.0
4 Murray State110100%94.064.0+30.0
5 Valparaiso110100%80.058.0+22.0
6 Belmont110100%72.054.0+18.0
7 Evansville110100%80.070.0+10.0
8 Indiana State1010%70.078.0-8.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HOTFinal
St. Marys (CA)33441390
Illinois State3938885
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