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Tartu Ulikool vs AEK Larnaca Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 09 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Scheduled
Position#37
Record2-4
FormWLLLW
Points / game88.0
Allowed / game99.7
vs
Form · last 5 games
4.5/10
Below normal
5.8/10
Above normal
Position#25
Record3-3
FormWLWLW
Points / game79.5
Allowed / game80.0
EuropeFIBA Europe CupRound 8· Tartu Ulikooli spordihoone
European cup2026
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tartu Ulikool win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
AEK Larnaca win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Tartu UlikoolLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormUlikool
Date
Competition
MZT Skopje
#47
W
95-92
95
92
+3
93avg 80
A14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Keila KK
#9
W
89-71
89
71
+18
91avg 80
A17/10
Latvia-Estonian League
AEK Larnaca
#25
L
93-99
93
99
-6
90avg 80
A21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Tal Tech
#6
W
65-41
65
41
+24
57avg 80
H24/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Iraklis
#11
W
101-100 OT
101
100
+1
91avg 80
H28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
VEF Riga
#2
W
86-74
86
74
+12
82avg 80
A31/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Wurzburg
#13
L
79-113
79
113
-34
no box
A02/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Valmiera Glass Via
#3
L
86-93
86
93
-7
no box
H07/11
Latvia-Estonian League
Dziki Warszawa
#8
L
84-91
84
91
-7
no box
A11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Parnu
#8
W
70-67
70
67
+3
no box
A15/11
Latvia-Estonian League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-17
20-22
28-23
23-30
19-19
23-21
26-9
21-22
21-32
30-25
20-22
22-20
15-9
21-15
12-9
17-8
24-22
19-25
28-22
18-20
25-34
15-17
18-9
28-14
20-23
19-31
17-33
23-26
24-30
21-22
15-19
26-22
16-24
24-28
26-23
18-16
18-18
17-17
25-7
10-25
168.9Avg total
84.8Scored
84.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)88.099.7187.7-11.733%
Season at home (2)88.5101.5190.0-13.050%
Season away (4)87.898.8186.5-11.025%
Last 10 (10)84.884.1168.9+0.760%
Last 5 (5)81.087.6168.6-6.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)84.991.6176.5-6.733%
vs Similar (4)89.282.5171.8+6.875%
vs Weaker (11)85.974.3160.2+11.691%
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AEK LarnacaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLarnaca
Date
Competition
Dziki Warszawa
#8
L
80-94
80
94
-14
69avg 80
A14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Apoel BC
#5
W
83-79
83
79
+4
84avg 80
H18/10
Division A
Tartu Ulikool
#37
W
99-93
99
93
+6
100avg 80
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Paralimni
#4
W
85-74
85
74
+11
65avg 80
A24/10
Division A
MZT Skopje
#47
W
85-69
85
69
+16
78avg 80
A27/10
FIBA Europe Cup
ETHA Engomi
#6
W
87-61
87
61
+26
94avg 80
H31/10
Division A
Iraklis
#11
L
64-81
64
81
-17
no box
A04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Morphou
#8
W
103-78
103
78
+25
no box
A08/11
Division A
Wurzburg
#13
L
76-78
76
78
-2
no box
A11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Anorthosis
#10
W
91-71
91
71
+20
no box
H15/11
Division A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-29
20-19
31-17
15-29
30-18
19-20
21-23
13-18
32-21
25-30
22-20
20-22
18-16
30-22
15-21
22-15
23-20
26-22
22-11
14-16
27-10
17-16
30-14
13-21
23-21
11-27
11-14
19-19
29-10
25-18
21-33
28-17
24-12
22-23
17-26
13-17
29-19
18-20
23-15
21-17
163.1Avg total
85.3Scored
77.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)79.580.0159.5-0.550%
Season at home (2)86.079.0165.0+7.0100%
Season away (4)76.280.5156.8-4.225%
Last 10 (10)85.377.8163.1+7.570%
Last 5 (5)84.273.8158.0+10.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)73.279.5152.8-6.225%
vs Similar (7)78.076.6154.6+1.457%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)88.174.9163.1+13.289%
This opponent (Tartu Ulikool) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: -2.2-2.2Q1: +7.3+7.3Q2Q2: -1.4-1.4Q2: -0.4-0.4Q3Q3: +3.9+3.9Q3: +1.9+1.9Q4Q4: +0.3+0.3Q4: -1.3-1.3
-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: -2.2-2.2Q1: +7.3+7.3Q2Q2: -1.4-1.4Q2: -0.4-0.4Q3Q3: +3.9+3.9Q3: +1.9+1.9Q4Q4: +0.3+0.3Q4: -1.3-1.3
Tartu UlikoolAEK Larnaca
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Tartu UlikoolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
MZT Skopje
#47
W
44-39
44
39
+5
A14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Keila KK
#9
W
42-40
42
40
+2
A17/10
Latvia-Estonian League
AEK Larnaca
#25
L
51-57
51
57
-6
A21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Tal Tech
#6
W
36-24
36
24
+12
H24/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Iraklis
#11
L
43-47
43
47
-4
H28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
VEF Riga
#2
L
40-51
40
51
-11
A31/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Wurzburg
#13
L
39-54
39
54
-15
A02/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Valmiera Glass Via
#3
L
45-52
45
52
-7
H07/11
Latvia-Estonian League
Dziki Warszawa
#8
L
40-52
40
52
-12
A11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Parnu
#8
D
35-35
35
35
+0
A15/11
Latvia-Estonian League
86.6Avg total
41.5Scored
45.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.344.086.3-1.737%-
Last 30 at home (13)40.243.283.4-2.923%-
Last 30 away (17)43.944.688.6-0.747%-
Last 10 (10)41.545.186.6-3.630%-
Last 5 (5)39.848.888.6-9.00%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)39.749.188.9-9.40%-
vs Similar (4)49.542.291.8+7.2100%-
vs Weaker (11)43.337.680.9+5.664%-
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AEK LarnacaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dziki Warszawa
#8
L
34-48
34
48
-14
A14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Apoel BC
#5
W
49-38
49
38
+11
H18/10
Division A
Tartu Ulikool
#37
W
57-51
57
51
+6
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Paralimni
#4
W
48-38
48
38
+10
A24/10
Division A
MZT Skopje
#47
W
49-42
49
42
+7
A27/10
FIBA Europe Cup
ETHA Engomi
#6
W
44-26
44
26
+18
H31/10
Division A
Iraklis
#11
L
34-48
34
48
-14
A04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Morphou
#8
W
54-28
54
28
+26
A08/11
Division A
Wurzburg
#13
W
46-35
46
35
+11
A11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Anorthosis
#10
W
47-39
47
39
+8
H15/11
Division A
85.5Avg total
46.2Scored
39.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.940.083.9+3.850%-
Last 30 at home (15)45.839.385.1+6.560%-
Last 30 away (15)41.940.782.7+1.240%-
Last 10 (10)46.239.385.5+6.980%-
Last 5 (5)45.035.280.2+9.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)38.542.881.2-4.225%-
vs Similar (7)40.339.179.4+1.129%-
vs Weaker ◀ (18)46.839.686.4+7.367%-
This opponent (Tartu Ulikool) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Tartu Ulikooltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Tartu Ulikool: 85.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.8 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.8 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.5 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.9 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.422.9
54.0%
53.4%45.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.88.6
33.3%
32.5%25.8
🏀 Free throws20.513.5
65.9%
72.8%13.5
They take 68.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
AEK Larnacatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

AEK Larnaca: 83.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.4 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.2 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.1 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.9 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.722.7
51.9%
53.4%45.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.07.4
35.2%
32.5%22.2
🏀 Free throws21.016.1
76.7%
72.8%16.1
They take 64.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 09 Dec 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Tartu Ulikool
WLLLWWWLWW
AEK Larnaca
WLWLWWWWWL
#37
League position
#25
+0.2
Net rating
+10.3
92.0
Offensive rating
99.1
91.8
Defensive rating
88.8
52.5%
Effective FG%
52.2%
49.3%
Opp. effective FG%
49.0%
15.9%
Turnover %
12.4%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.32
33.3%
3-point %
35.2%
68.9%
Assist %
66.8%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence92.0 · 99.1Defence91.8 · 88.8Shooting52.5% · 52.2%3-point %33.3% · 35.2%Ball care15.9% · 12.4%Free throws0.30 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)60% · 70%
■ Tartu Ulikool   ■ AEK Larnaca
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Tartu Ulikool wins
1
AEK Larnaca wins
DateGameScore
21/10/26AEK Larnaca v Tartu Ulikool99-93
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26AParnu70-67
11/11/26ADziki Warszawa84-91
07/11/26HValmiera Glass Via86-93
02/11/26AWurzburg79-113
31/10/26AVEF Riga86-74
28/10/26HIraklis101-100 OT
24/10/26HTal Tech65-41
21/10/26AAEK Larnaca93-99
17/10/26AKeila KK89-71
14/10/26AMZT Skopje95-92
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HAnorthosis91-71
11/11/26AWurzburg76-78
08/11/26AMorphou103-78
04/11/26AIraklis64-81
31/10/26HETHA Engomi87-61
27/10/26AMZT Skopje85-69
24/10/26AParalimni85-74
21/10/26HTartu Ulikool99-93
18/10/26HApoel BC83-79
14/10/26ADziki Warszawa80-94

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Tartu Ulikool
FIBA Europe Cup 2026
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL33%
HomeLW50%
AwayWLLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games624
Win %33%50%25%
Points / game88.088.587.8
Allowed / game99.7101.598.8
Point differential-11.7-13.0-11.0
Avg total187.7190.0186.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %17%50%0%
AEK Larnaca
FIBA Europe Cup 2026
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLL50%
HomeWW100%
AwayLWLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games624
Win %50%100%25%
Points / game79.586.076.2
Allowed / game80.079.080.5
Point differential-0.5+7.0-4.2
Avg total159.5165.0156.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%0%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Trier660100%100.069.7+30.3
2 Esenler Erokspor660100%96.371.0+25.3
3 Basquet Girona65183%91.375.0+16.3
4 Nancy65183%87.272.5+14.7
5 Korfez Basket65183%87.373.7+13.7
6 Benfica65183%94.383.8+10.5
7 Mykonos65183%84.076.3+7.7
8 Dziki Warszawa65183%87.580.3+7.2
9 Chalon/Saone64267%84.872.7+12.2
10 Kolossos Rhodes64267%81.870.2+11.7
11 Iraklis64267%87.276.0+11.2
12 VEF Riga64267%95.084.7+10.3
13 Wurzburg64267%84.575.5+9.0
14 Promitheas64267%90.081.8+8.2
15 CSM Oradea64267%86.380.3+6.0
16 Szczecin64267%86.881.7+5.2
17 Geneva Lions64267%88.284.0+4.2
18 Keravnos64267%80.876.7+4.2
19 Zielona Gora64267%84.583.2+1.3
20 Split64267%81.580.3+1.2
21 Oostende64267%78.377.8+0.5
22 Bakken Bears64267%82.083.3-1.3
23 BC Prievidza84450%90.183.2+6.9
24 Lok. Plovdiv63350%83.383.5-0.2
25 AEK Larnaca63350%79.580.0-0.5
26 Valmiera Glass Via63350%81.083.3-2.3
27 BC Kalev/Cramo63350%80.083.7-3.7
28 Sporting CP63350%76.780.3-3.7
29 Trepca63350%77.581.2-3.7
30 Dinamo Bucharest83538%87.881.6+6.1
31 Denizli Basket62433%81.583.5-2.0
32 Vienna Basket62433%80.585.2-4.7
33 Levice62433%72.778.2-5.5
34 SCM Craiova62433%88.096.3-8.3
35 Nitra Blue Wings62433%78.888.2-9.3
36 Szolnoki Olaj62433%77.588.3-10.8
37 Tartu Ulikool62433%88.099.7-11.7
38 Neftchi IK82625%75.682.6-7.0
39 Parnu82625%71.479.0-7.6
40 Bashkimi51420%73.683.2-9.6
41 Rilski Sportist51420%75.888.8-13.0
42 Manchester Basketball51420%75.890.0-14.2
43 Gence51420%71.288.2-17.0
44 Opava61517%83.286.8-3.7
45 Absheron Lions61517%83.795.3-11.7
46 Fribourg Olympic61517%73.087.3-14.3
47 MZT Skopje6060%72.087.2-15.2
48 Samobor2020%74.0100.5-26.5
49 Peja2020%70.5100.5-30.0
50 Batumi6060%66.899.2-32.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 50 teams: scroll the table.
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