Treviso host Scafati on 15 November 2026 in the Lega Basket Serie A, and the Pythia model names Treviso the clear favourite, rating an 83% chance of victory largely because of their 5-2 record and 90.7 points per game compared with Scafati's 1-6 record and 81.6 points per game. Treviso have gone 3-0 at home, averaging 97.3 points and allowing 82.7, while Scafati have lost all three road games, scoring only 78.7 and conceding 99.3. In the last five games Treviso won three and lost two, with a recent loss to Tortona 76-87 away, a win over Reggiana 81-68 at home, and a win against Venezia 97-89 away; Scafati's five-game span includes one win over Trento 87-81 at home and four defeats, including a 90-103 loss to BC Roma away. Their head-to-head record is even, 3-3, with the most recent meeting ending 92-87 in favour of Treviso on 27 April 2025. Pythia projects a 93-82 score, a total of 174.9, and an 83% probability that Treviso will win, with a 61% chance they will cover the home line of -8.0; the over on the 176.5 line has a 46% probability, and the game carries a 3% chance of overtime. Scafati's last game was a 89-91 loss to Basket Napoli at home.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Treviso win
83.0%fair 1.21
Best odds1.36
Implied74.0%
Edge+9.0pp
Scafati win
17.0%fair 5.87
Best odds3.58
Implied26.0%
Edge-9.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 18:31 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Treviso) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 175 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 175-179 (12%). The market's main line is 176.75.
Over/Under 171.5
Over 171.5
57.6%
@ 1.52-4.2pp
Under 171.5
42.4%
@ 2.50+4.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
WilliamHill
1.50
Marathon Be
1.49
1xBet
1.46
Under
WilliamHill
2.50
1xBet
2.40
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.40
Over/Under 176.75 · main line
Over 176.75
45.7%
@ 1.79-4.9pp
Under 176.75
54.3%
@ 1.83+4.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.79
Under
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 181.5
Over 181.5
34.2%
@ 2.40-4.6pp
Under 181.5
65.8%
@ 1.53+4.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.40
Bet365
2.40
WilliamHill
2.38
Betano
2.37
Under
Marathon Be
1.53
WilliamHill
1.53
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.46
📊 3. Team Totals
Treviso total 87.5
Over 87.5
70.3%
@ 1.43+5.4pp
Under 87.5
29.7%
@ 2.65-5.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.43
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.36
Under
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.60
1xBet
2.48
Treviso total 91.5 · main line
Over 91.5
55.8%
@ 1.85+5.0pp
Under 91.5
44.2%
@ 1.94-5.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
Bet365
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
Betano
1.80
Marathon Be
1.79
Under
Marathon Be
1.94
Betano
1.88
BetVictor
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Treviso total 95.5
Over 95.5
40.5%
@ 2.45+2.0pp
Under 95.5
59.5%
@ 1.52-2.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Bet365
2.40
1xBet
2.27
Under
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.42
Scafati total 80.5
Over 80.5
54.9%
@ 1.43-10.1pp
Under 80.5
45.1%
@ 2.65+10.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.43
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.36
Under
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.60
1xBet
2.47
Scafati total 84.5 · main line
Over 84.5
39.4%
@ 1.83-11.9pp
Under 84.5
60.6%
@ 1.91+11.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Be
1.83
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Under
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
Marathon Be
1.89
Betano
1.88
Bet365
1.83
Scafati total 88.5
Over 88.5
25.6%
@ 2.50-11.9pp
Under 88.5
74.4%
@ 1.50+11.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.45
1xBet
2.27
Under
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.42
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Treviso's side (positive = Treviso win). Pythia's expected margin is +11.0; Treviso win by 1+ in 76% of simulations.
Spread Treviso -10
TRV -10
53.8%
@ 2.45+11.5pp
SKA +10
46.2%
@ 1.63-11.5pp
Best 5 market prices
TRV
Bet365
2.45
Marathon Be
2.23
Pinnacle
2.22
SKA
Pinnacle
1.63
Marathon Be
1.58
Bet365
1.52
Spread Treviso -7 · main line
TRV -7
64.7%
@ 1.95+13.9pp
SKA +7
35.3%
@ 1.92-13.9pp
Best 5 market prices
TRV
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.86
SKA
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Bet365
1.80
Spread Treviso -4
TRV -4
74.8%
@ 1.60+15.8pp
SKA +4
25.2%
@ 2.28-15.8pp
Best 5 market prices
TRV
Bet365
1.60
Marathon Be
1.53
SKA
Marathon Be
2.28
Bet365
2.22
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
TrevisoScafati
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Treviso) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winner
TRV win
71.9%
@ 1.53+10.4pp
SKA win
28.1%
@ 2.45-10.4pp
2nd half Spread Treviso -3 · main line
TRV -3
60.3%
@ 1.85+9.8pp
SKA +3
39.7%
@ 1.89-9.8pp
2nd half Over/Under 87.5 · main line
Over
48.7%
@ 1.91-1.3pp
Under
51.3%
@ 1.87+1.3pp
Treviso 2nd half total 45 · main line
Over
57.0%
@ 1.82+6.5pp
Under
43.0%
@ 1.92-6.5pp
Scafati 2nd half total 42 · main line
Over
43.0%
@ 1.87-6.7pp
Under
57.0%
@ 1.87+6.7pp
2nd half Over/Under 86.25
Over
52.1%
@ 1.72-0.5pp
Under
47.9%
@ 1.91+0.5pp
2nd half Spread Treviso -4
TRV -4
56.2%
@ 1.93+7.8pp
SKA +4
43.8%
@ 1.81-7.8pp
2nd half Over/Under 89.5
Over
41.2%
@ 2.20-1.4pp
Under
58.8%
@ 1.62+1.4pp
2nd half Spread Treviso -1.5
TRV -1.5
65.7%
@ 1.61+10.8pp
SKA +1.5
34.3%
@ 1.96-10.8pp
2nd half Spread Treviso -5.5
TRV -5.5
49.8%
@ 2.06+6.8pp
SKA +5.5
50.2%
@ 1.55-6.8pp
2nd half Spread Treviso -6.5
TRV -6.5
45.5%
@ 2.22+5.6pp
SKA +6.5
54.5%
@ 1.47-5.6pp
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)
TRV
69.4%
@ 1.60+11.4pp
Draw
3.4%
@ 21.00-1.6pp
SKA
27.1%
@ 2.60-9.7pp
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
They take 66.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 33% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 60.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Trevisotheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Treviso: 85.4 points a game allowed
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.0 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.1 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.3 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
39.5
21.5
54.4%
54.3%
43.0
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
32.5
9.7
29.8%
34.3%
29.1
🏀Free throws
19.0
13.3
70.0%
74.6%
13.3
Their opponents take 72.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Scafatitheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Scafati: 82.1 points a game allowed
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.4 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.1 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.6 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
34.4
19.7
57.3%
54.3%
39.4
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
26.0
9.7
37.3%
34.3%
29.1
🏀Free throws
18.5
13.6
73.5%
74.6%
13.6
Their opponents take 60.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
They take 64.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 63.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Trevisotheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Treviso: 88.1 points a game allowed
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.3 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.0 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.8 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
36.9
20.6
56.0%
54.3%
41.3
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
30.0
10.7
35.6%
34.3%
32.0
🏀Free throws
20.7
14.8
71.6%
74.6%
14.8
Their opponents take 66.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Scafatitheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Scafati: 77.8 points a game allowed
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.3 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.3 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.2 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
36.6
18.6
51.0%
54.3%
37.3
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
24.7
8.8
35.5%
34.3%
26.3
🏀Free throws
19.2
14.2
73.8%
74.6%
14.2
Their opponents take 61.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Treviso
LWWWLWWWWW
Scafati
LLWLLLLWWW
#5
League position
#15
+5.8
Net rating
-4.9
98.2
Offensive rating
95.9
92.4
Defensive rating
100.8
52.6%
Effective FG%
52.6%
50.1%
Opp. effective FG%
56.7%
12.8%
Turnover %
14.9%
0.43
Free-throw rate
0.37
32.4%
3-point %
39.6%
55.2%
Assist %
56.6%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
40%
Profile
■ Treviso■ Scafati
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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