Troy will host UMass on 2 November 2026 in a low-scoring NCAA matchup where the model foresees defence and a slow pace, with Troy projected to win 75-71 and a 65% chance of victory. Troy finished the season at home with a 4-1 record, averaging 75 points and allowing 71, while UMass is 2-3 on the road, averaging 71 points and conceding 75; the last five games for Troy include a 77-61 win over Georgia Southern, a 78-70 win over Southern Miss and a 47-76 loss to Nebraska, whereas UMass's recent results feature a 94-82 win at home over Ohio, an 87-83 win away at Miami (Ohio) and a 67-77 loss away to Toledo. In their previous meetings, the most recent encounter was a 75-71 win for Troy, giving the model a 56% probability that Troy will cover the home line of -3.0. The over/under line is set at 154.5 with a 30% chance of the total exceeding that mark, and there is a 5% chance the game will go into overtime.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 69.7 | 68.4 | 138.1 | +1.3 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 72.0 | 66.2 | 138.2 | +5.8 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (2) | 63.0 | 72.5 | 135.5 | -9.5 | 50% |
| vs Similar (11) | 74.9 | 74.9 | 149.8 | +0.0 | 55% |
| vs Weaker (17) | 82.1 | 72.4 | 154.5 | +9.6 | 71% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 82.0 | 85.1 | 167.1 | -3.1 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 76.6 | 79.4 | 156.0 | -2.8 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (6) | 83.7 | 89.3 | 173.0 | -5.7 | 17% |
| vs Similar (13) | 79.5 | 79.5 | 159.0 | -0.1 | 46% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 77.3 | 73.2 | 150.5 | +4.1 | 70% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 72.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.5 | 32.3 | 67.8 | +3.3 | 50% | 30% |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 36.7 | 28.3 | 65.0 | +8.5 | 87% | 20% |
| Last 30 away (15) | 34.3 | 36.3 | 70.6 | -1.9 | 13% | 40% |
| Last 10 (10) | 31.9 | 30.7 | 62.6 | +1.2 | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 (5) | 33.6 | 29.2 | 62.8 | +4.4 | 80% | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (2) | 30.0 | 35.0 | 65.0 | -5.0 | 50% | 0% |
| vs Similar (11) | 34.1 | 34.5 | 68.6 | -0.5 | 45% | 45% |
| vs Weaker (17) | 37.1 | 30.5 | 67.6 | +6.6 | 53% | 24% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 72.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.5 | 33.9 | 70.4 | +2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 35.8 | 32.1 | 67.9 | +3.7 | 57% | 36% |
| Last 30 away (16) | 37.1 | 35.6 | 72.6 | +1.5 | 56% | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.4 | 35.2 | 71.6 | +1.2 | 40% | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.8 | 34.0 | 69.8 | +1.8 | 40% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (6) | 39.0 | 38.2 | 77.2 | +0.8 | 33% | 67% |
| vs Similar (13) | 35.2 | 33.5 | 68.8 | +1.7 | 46% | 38% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 36.1 | 33.2 | 69.3 | +2.9 | 80% | 40% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 155 | 71.3% | 1.83 | 1.85 | 1.83 | 1.82 | 1.80 | - | +20.0pp | Won |
| Under 156 | 73.3% | 1.74 | 1.76 | 1.74 | 1.74 | 1.71 | - | +19.3pp | Won |
| UMass under 76.5 | 70.7% | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.80 | - | - | - | +19.2pp | Won |
| Under 155.5 | 71.9% | 1.79 | 1.83 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.78 | +19.1pp | Won |
| Under 157 | 75.3% | 1.65 | 1.65 | 1.64 | - | - | - | +18.9pp | Won |
| Under 156.5 | 73.8% | 1.70 | 1.72 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.66 | +18.6pp | Won |
| UMass under 77.5 | 73.9% | 1.67 | 1.67 | - | - | - | - | +18.5pp | Won |
| Under 157.5 | 75.7% | 1.61 | 1.62 | 1.60 | - | - | - | +18.4pp | Won |
| Under 158 | 77.1% | 1.57 | 1.57 | - | - | - | - | +18.2pp | Won |
| Under 158.5 | 77.5% | 1.54 | 1.55 | 1.54 | - | - | - | +17.7pp | Won |
| UMass under 79.5 | 79.6% | 1.47 | 1.47 | 1.47 | - | - | - | +17.0pp | Won |
| UMass under 78.5 | 76.8% | 1.54 | 1.55 | 1.52 | - | - | - | +17.0pp | Won |
| Under 159.5 | 79.3% | 1.48 | 1.50 | 1.47 | - | - | - | +16.8pp | Won |
| Under 159 | 78.9% | 1.50 | 1.50 | - | - | - | - | +16.4pp | Won |
| Under 160 | 80.6% | 1.45 | 1.45 | - | - | - | - | +16.4pp | Won |
| Under 160.5 | 80.9% | 1.42 | 1.44 | 1.41 | - | - | - | +16.1pp | Won |
| Under 161 | 82.2% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +15.9pp | Won |
| Under 161.5 | 82.5% | 1.39 | 1.40 | 1.37 | - | - | - | +15.7pp | Won |
| UMass under 80.5 | 82.2% | 1.37 | 1.39 | 1.35 | - | - | - | +15.1pp | Won |
| UMass under 81.5 | 84.5% | 1.32 | 1.32 | 1.32 | - | - | - | +15.1pp | Won |
| Under 162 | 83.7% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +14.2pp | Won |
| Under 162.5 | 83.9% | 1.32 | 1.32 | - | - | - | - | +13.5pp | Won |
| Troy under 81.5 | 73.2% | 1.52 | 1.55 | 1.50 | - | - | - | +13.1pp | Won |
| Troy under 82.5 | 76.4% | 1.42 | 1.42 | - | - | - | - | +12.6pp | Won |
| UMass under 83.5 | 88.5% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +12.4pp | Won |
| Troy under 83.5 | 79.3% | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.35 | - | - | - | +12.3pp | Won |
| UMass under 82.5 | 86.6% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +11.9pp | Won |
| Under 164.5 | 86.6% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +11.9pp | Won |
| UMass under 84.5 | 90.2% | 1.16 | 1.16 | - | - | - | - | +10.7pp | Won |
| Troy under 85.5 | 84.4% | 1.26 | 1.26 | - | - | - | - | +10.6pp | Won |
| Under 163.5 | 85.3% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +10.6pp | Won |
| Troy under 87.5 | 88.7% | 1.18 | 1.18 | - | - | - | - | +9.8pp | Won |
| Troy under 88.5 | 90.4% | 1.14 | 1.14 | - | - | - | - | +9.0pp | Won |
| Under 169.5 | 91.8% | 1.12 | 1.12 | - | - | - | - | +8.7pp | Won |
| Troy under 89.5 | 92.0% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | +8.2pp | Won |
| Troy +5.5 | 79.4% | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.29 | - | - | - | +7.9pp | Lost |
| Under 168.5 | 90.9% | 1.12 | 1.12 | - | - | - | - | +7.8pp | Won |
| Troy under 91.5 | 94.5% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | +7.3pp | Won |
| Troy +3.5 | 73.7% | 1.39 | 1.40 | 1.38 | - | - | - | +7.2pp | Lost |
| Troy +2.5 | 71.0% | 1.46 | 1.47 | 1.44 | - | - | - | +7.2pp | Lost |
| Troy +4.5 | 76.7% | 1.33 | 1.35 | 1.32 | - | - | - | +7.1pp | Lost |
| Troy +5 | 78.8% | 1.30 | 1.30 | - | - | - | - | +7.1pp | Lost |
| Troy +6.5 | 81.9% | 1.23 | 1.25 | 1.22 | - | - | - | +6.6pp | Lost |
| Under 174.5 | 95.2% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | +6.5pp | Won |
| Troy +3 | 73.0% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +6.3pp | Lost |
| Troy +4 | 76.0% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +6.2pp | Lost |
| Troy +16.5 | 95.8% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +6.1pp | Won |
| Under 173.5 | 94.7% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | +6.0pp | Won |
| Troy +11.5 | 91.0% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | +5.4pp | Won |
| Troy +21.5 | 98.1% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +5.3pp | Won |
| Overtime: no | 95.0% | 1.04 | 1.06 | 1.03 | - | - | - | +5.2pp | - |
| UMass +23.5 | 94.8% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +4.6pp | Won |
| UMass +18.5 | 89.1% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | +3.0pp | Won |
| UMass +13.5 | 79.2% | 1.20 | 1.20 | - | - | - | - | +1.5pp | Won |
| UMass +11.5 | 73.9% | 1.27 | 1.27 | - | - | - | - | +0.5pp | Won |
| UMass +11 | 73.1% | 1.27 | 1.27 | - | - | - | - | +0.3pp | Won |
| UMass +10.5 | 70.9% | 1.29 | 1.31 | 1.27 | - | - | - | -0.8pp | Won |
| UMass over 57.5 | 90.5% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -3.2pp | Won |
| Troy over 63.5 | 87.4% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -3.3pp | Lost |
| UMass over 58.5 | 88.7% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -3.6pp | Won |
| UMass over 59.5 | 86.7% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -4.8pp | Won |
| Troy over 65.5 | 83.0% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -5.8pp | Lost |
| UMass over 60.5 | 84.4% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -6.3pp | Won |
| Over 128.5 | 85.7% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -6.5pp | Won |
| Over 129.5 | 84.3% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -8.0pp | Won |
| UMass over 61.5 | 82.0% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | -8.2pp | Won |
| Troy over 67.5 | 77.5% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | -8.6pp | Lost |
| UMass over 62.5 | 79.3% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -9.4pp | Won |
| Troy over 68.5 | 74.5% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | -9.9pp | Lost |
| Troy over 69.5 | 71.2% | 1.14 | 1.14 | - | - | - | - | -10.2pp | Lost |
| Over 133.5 | 77.6% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -11.8pp | Lost |
| UMass over 63.5 | 76.4% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | -11.9pp | Won |
| UMass over 64.5 | 73.2% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | -12.9pp | Won |
| Over 134.5 | 75.7% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -13.7pp | Lost |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/03/26 | A | Nebraska | 47-76 |
| 09/03/26 | H | Georgia Southern | 77-61 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Southern Miss | 78-70 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Louisiana Monroe | 80-65 |
| 25/02/26 | H | Louisiana Lafayette | 78-59 |
| 21/02/26 | A | South Alabama | 54-65 |
| 19/02/26 | A | Louisiana Monroe | 77-76 |
| 15/02/26 | A | Southern Miss | 65-69 |
| 12/02/26 | A | Texas State | 62-74 |
| 07/02/26 | H | Akron | 79-69 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/26 | A | Toledo | 67-77 |
| 12/03/26 | A | Miami (Ohio) | 87-83 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Ohio | 94-82 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Bowling Green | 62-81 |
| 25/02/26 | A | Ball State | 73-74 OT |
| 21/02/26 | H | Buffalo | 82-86 OT |
| 18/02/26 | H | Miami (Ohio) | 77-86 |
| 14/02/26 | A | Akron | 92-99 |
| 07/02/26 | A | Coastal Carolina | 91-94 OT |
| 04/02/26 | H | Central Michigan | 95-89 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over 154.5 | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over 154.5 | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 73.0 | 76.0 | -3.0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 49.0 | 63.0 | -14.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 76.0 | 73.0 | +3.0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 87.0 | 89.0 | -2.0 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 32 | 60 | |
| 38 | 33 | 71 |
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