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Turkey vs Italy Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 20 Feb 2025
Tip-off: 17:30
Final 67-80
12-17 19-31 19-12 17-20
Position#20
Record3-1
FormWLWWW
Points / game82.2
Allowed / game76.0
vs
Italy 🏆
Position#9
Record3-1
FormLWWWL
Points / game84.8
Allowed / game73.5
EuropeEuroBasketRound 5· TBF Development Center
Other2023
Meetings · Turkey v Italy
01 Mar 2027
TURK v ITAL
upcoming
20 Feb 2025
TURK67
ITAL80
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Turkey winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Italy winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

TurkeyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTurkey
Date
Competition
Spain
#1
L
69-72
69
72
-3
no box
H07/09
EuroBasket
France
#7
L
86-87 OT
86
87
-1
no box
H10/09
EuroBasket
Belgium
#35
W
86-52
86
52
+34
no box
H11/11
World Cup
Serbia
#13
L
76-77
76
77
-1
no box
A14/11
World Cup
Latvia
#3
L
74-83
74
83
-9
no box
H24/02
World Cup
Belgium
#35
W
82-54
82
54
+28
no box
A27/02
World Cup
Italy
#9
L
80-87
80
87
-7
77avg 65
A22/02
EuroBasket
Iceland
#25
W
76-75
76
75
+1
64avg 65
H25/02
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
W
92-66
92
66
+26
84avg 65
H22/11
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
W
81-76
81
76
+5
71avg 65
A25/11
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-17
16-21
16-18
19-16
11-18
24-25
22-6
20-28
23-13
20-14
17-13
26-12
21-24
13-13
20-17
22-23
23-26
23-23
7-21
21-13
22-14
23-17
19-14
18-9
24-24
15-26
17-18
24-19
16-16
19-14
19-17
22-28
27-20
16-17
19-12
30-17
21-14
19-17
14-23
27-22
153.1Avg total
80.2Scored
72.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)82.276.0158.2+6.275%
Season at home (2)84.070.5154.5+13.5100%
Season away (2)80.581.5162.0-1.050%
Last 10 (10)80.272.9153.1+7.350%
Last 5 (5)82.271.6153.8+10.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)75.582.0157.5-6.512%
vs Similar (13)77.273.8151.0+3.554%
vs Weaker (9)84.376.0160.3+8.378%
This opponent (Italy) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormItaly
Date
Competition
Dominican Republic
#12
L
82-87
82
87
-5
no box
H27/08
World Cup
Philippines
#44
W
90-83
90
83
+7
no box
A29/08
World Cup
Serbia
#13
W
78-76
78
76
+2
no box
A01/09
World Cup
Puerto Rico
#10
W
73-57
73
57
+16
no box
H03/09
World Cup
Latvia
#3
L
82-87
82
87
-5
no box
H07/09
World Cup
Slovenia
#24
L
85-89
85
89
-4
no box
H09/09
World Cup
Turkey
#20
W
87-80
87
80
+7
84avg 81
H22/02
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
W
83-62
83
62
+21
86avg 81
A25/02
EuroBasket
Iceland
#25
W
95-71
95
71
+24
90avg 81
A22/11
EuroBasket
Iceland
#25
L
74-81
74
81
-7
62avg 81
H25/11
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-13
20-25
17-31
26-18
20-23
28-16
25-21
17-23
23-19
17-23
19-20
19-14
25-15
14-21
12-11
22-10
26-18
16-28
18-21
22-20
18-15
23-27
19-28
25-19
24-24
26-15
18-17
19-24
17-15
19-22
28-9
19-16
27-12
22-13
16-29
30-17
9-22
20-10
27-26
18-23
160.2Avg total
82.9Scored
77.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)84.873.5158.2+11.275%
Season at home (2)80.580.5161.0+0.050%
Season away (2)89.066.5155.5+22.5100%
Last 10 (10)82.977.3160.2+5.660%
Last 5 (5)84.876.6161.4+8.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)82.480.3162.7+2.157%
vs Similar (14)86.384.3170.6+2.057%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)86.171.8157.9+14.389%
This opponent (Turkey) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +2.0+2.0Q1: +3.2+3.2Q2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q2: +0.5+0.5Q3Q3: +1.1+1.1Q3: -1.4-1.4Q4Q4: +4.2+4.2Q4: +3.3+3.3
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +2.0+2.0Q1: +3.2+3.2Q2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q2: +0.5+0.5Q3Q3: +1.1+1.1Q3: -1.4-1.4Q4Q4: +4.2+4.2Q4: +3.3+3.3
TurkeyItaly
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
TurkeyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Spain
#1
L
34-38
34
38
-4
H07/09
EuroBasket
France
#7
L
35-43
35
43
-8
H10/09
EuroBasket
Belgium
#35
W
43-27
43
27
+16
H11/11
World Cup
Serbia
#13
L
34-37
34
37
-3
A14/11
World Cup
Latvia
#3
L
46-49
46
49
-3
H24/02
World Cup
Belgium
#35
W
45-31
45
31
+14
A27/02
World Cup
Italy
#9
L
39-50
39
50
-11
A22/02
EuroBasket
Iceland
#25
W
35-30
35
30
+5
H25/02
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
W
43-37
43
37
+6
H22/11
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
W
40-31
40
31
+9
A25/11
EuroBasket
76.7Avg total
39.4Scored
37.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.438.677.0-0.247%-
Last 30 at home (16)37.937.074.9+0.950%-
Last 30 away (14)39.040.579.5-1.543%-
Last 10 (10)39.437.376.7+2.150%-
Last 5 (5)40.435.876.2+4.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)37.443.881.1-6.412%-
vs Similar (13)37.436.273.5+1.262%-
vs Weaker (9)40.837.778.4+3.156%-
This opponent (Italy) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ItalyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dominican Republic
#12
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H27/08
World Cup
Philippines
#44
W
48-39
48
39
+9
A29/08
World Cup
Serbia
#13
L
40-42
40
42
-2
A01/09
World Cup
Puerto Rico
#10
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H03/09
World Cup
Latvia
#3
L
42-46
42
46
-4
H07/09
World Cup
Slovenia
#24
L
41-42
41
42
-1
H09/09
World Cup
Turkey
#20
W
50-39
50
39
+11
H22/02
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
L
36-37
36
37
-1
A25/02
EuroBasket
Iceland
#25
W
49-25
49
25
+24
A22/11
EuroBasket
Iceland
#25
L
29-32
29
32
-3
H25/11
EuroBasket
78.9Avg total
41.3Scored
37.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.439.281.6+3.260%-
Last 30 at home (15)43.738.782.4+4.967%-
Last 30 away (15)41.239.780.9+1.553%-
Last 10 (10)41.337.678.9+3.750%-
Last 5 (5)41.035.076.0+6.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)41.341.182.4+0.143%-
vs Similar (14)40.840.581.3+0.357%-
vs Weaker ◀ (9)45.935.781.6+10.278%-
This opponent (Turkey) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Turkeytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Turkey: 81.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.5 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.0 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.8 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.820.7
50.9%
50.6%41.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.59.2
32.5%
32.5%27.8
🏀 Free throws16.012.0
75.0%
71.4%12.0
They take 69.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Italytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Italy: 83.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀11%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.0 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.8 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.0 pts a game · 11% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.8 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.020.5
53.9%
50.6%41.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.511.2
39.5%
32.5%33.8
🏀 Free throws14.09.0
64.3%
71.4%9.0
They take 66.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 4/4 games with a box score before 20 Feb 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Turkey
WWWLWLLWLL
Italy
LWWWLLWWWL
#20
League position
#9
+9.1
Net rating
+15.9
117.8
Offensive rating
118.5
108.7
Defensive rating
102.6
50.0%
Effective FG%
56.2%
51.3%
Opp. effective FG%
50.9%
16.5%
Turnover %
15.9%
45.0%
Off. rebound %
35.8%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.21
32.5%
3-point %
39.5%
59.2%
Assist %
70.1%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence117.8 · 118.5Defence108.7 · 102.6Shooting50.0% · 56.2%3-point %32.5% · 39.5%Ball care16.5% · 15.9%Off. rebounds45.0% · 35.8%Free throws0.23 · 0.21Form (last 10/10)50% · 60%
■ Turkey   ■ Italy
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Turkey wins
1
Italy wins
DateGameScore
22/02/24Italy v Turkey87-80
Turkeylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/11/24AHungary81-76
22/11/24HHungary92-66
25/02/24HIceland76-75
22/02/24AItaly80-87
27/02/23ABelgium82-54
24/02/23HLatvia74-83
14/11/22ASerbia76-77
11/11/22HBelgium86-52
10/09/22HFrance86-87 OT
07/09/22HSpain69-72
Italylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/11/24HIceland74-81
22/11/24AIceland95-71
25/02/24AHungary83-62
22/02/24HTurkey87-80
09/09/23HSlovenia85-89
07/09/23HLatvia82-87
03/09/23HPuerto Rico73-57
01/09/23ASerbia78-76
29/08/23APhilippines90-83
27/08/23HDominican Republic82-87

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Turkey
EuroBasket 2023
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWW75%
HomeWW100%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %75%100%50%
Points / game82.284.080.5
Allowed / game76.070.581.5
Point differential+6.2+13.5-1.0
Avg total158.2154.5162.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Italy
EuroBasket 2023
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWL75%
HomeWL50%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %75%50%100%
Points / game84.880.589.0
Allowed / game73.580.566.5
Point differential+11.2+0.0+22.5
Avg total158.2161.0155.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%0%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Serbia440100%80.856.8+24.0
2 France440100%76.863.5+13.2
3 Latvia440100%75.870.5+5.2
4 Croatia1411379%84.970.5+14.4
5 Lithuania43175%79.567.0+12.5
6 Italy43175%84.873.5+11.2
7 Montenegro43175%82.875.8+7.0
8 Turkey43175%82.276.0+6.2
9 Greece43175%73.869.0+4.8
10 Israel43175%81.276.5+4.8
11 Slovenia43175%83.079.0+4.0
12 Estonia43175%76.873.5+3.2
13 Portugal107370%82.773.0+9.7
14 Bulgaria149564%78.674.4+4.2
15 North Macedonia106460%74.069.6+4.4
16 Poland106460%79.475.9+3.5
17 Slovakia148657%72.970.4+2.6
18 Romania148657%72.072.1-0.1
19 Germany42250%74.865.5+9.2
20 Bosnia & Herzegovina42250%87.279.8+7.5
21 Belgium42250%72.068.2+3.8
22 Czech Republic42250%80.076.2+3.8
23 Spain42250%72.070.0+2.0
24 Georgia42250%75.874.5+1.2
25 Denmark189950%74.473.6+0.8
26 Great Britain42250%80.083.2-3.2
27 Sweden42250%72.079.2-7.2
28 Norway146843%71.176.0-4.9
29 Iceland52340%75.079.4-4.4
30 Ireland104640%73.984.4-10.5
31 Austria1661038%75.077.2-2.2
32 Switzerland1661038%67.871.9-4.2
33 Kosovo83538%76.081.2-5.2
34 Netherlands41325%79.284.5-5.2
35 Finland41325%74.283.2-9.0
36 Hungary51420%71.280.8-9.6
37 Luxembourg81712%75.685.2-9.6
38 Albania81712%73.285.8-12.5
39 Cyprus161156%63.680.8-17.2
40 Ukraine4040%74.585.0-10.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 40 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Turkey1219191767
Italy1731122080
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