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Italy vs Iceland Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 25 Nov 2024
Tip-off: 19:30
Final 74-81
9-22 20-10 27-26 18-23
Position#9
Record3-0
FormLLWWW
Points / game88.3
Allowed / game71.0
vs
Iceland 🏆
Position#25
Record1-2
FormLWWLL
Points / game72.0
Allowed / game78.7
EuropeEuroBasketRound 4· PalaBigi
Other2023
Meetings · Italy v Iceland
27 Nov 2025
ITAL76
ICEL81
25 Nov 2024
ITAL74
ICEL81
27 Feb 2022
ITAL95
ICEL87
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Italy winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Iceland winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormItaly
Date
Competition
Angola
#19
W
81-67
81
67
+14
no box
A25/08
World Cup
Dominican Republic
#12
L
82-87
82
87
-5
no box
H27/08
World Cup
Philippines
#44
W
90-83
90
83
+7
no box
A29/08
World Cup
Serbia
#13
W
78-76
78
76
+2
no box
A01/09
World Cup
Puerto Rico
#10
W
73-57
73
57
+16
no box
H03/09
World Cup
Latvia
#3
L
82-87
82
87
-5
no box
H07/09
World Cup
Slovenia
#24
L
85-89
85
89
-4
no box
H09/09
World Cup
Turkey
#20
W
87-80
87
80
+7
84avg 87
H22/02
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
W
83-62
83
62
+21
86avg 87
A25/02
EuroBasket
Iceland
#25
W
95-71
95
71
+24
90avg 87
A22/11
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-17
20-23
18-17
20-10
19-13
20-25
17-31
26-18
20-23
28-16
25-21
17-23
23-19
17-23
19-20
19-14
25-15
14-21
12-11
22-10
26-18
16-28
18-21
22-20
18-15
23-27
19-28
25-19
24-24
26-15
18-17
19-24
17-15
19-22
28-9
19-16
27-12
22-13
16-29
30-17
159.5Avg total
83.6Scored
75.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)88.371.0159.3+17.3100%
Season at home (1)87.080.0167.0+7.0100%
Season away (2)89.066.5155.5+22.5100%
Last 10 (10)83.675.9159.5+7.770%
Last 5 (5)86.477.8164.2+8.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)81.981.8163.6+0.150%
vs Similar (14)86.384.3170.6+2.057%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)87.670.6158.2+17.0100%
This opponent (Iceland) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
IcelandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormIceland
Date
Competition
Netherlands
#77
W
67-66
67
66
+1
no box
H01/07
World Cup
Spain
#7
L
57-87
57
87
-30
no box
A24/08
World Cup
Ukraine
#34
W
91-88 OT
91
88
+3
no box
H27/08
World Cup
Georgia
#32
L
85-88
85
88
-3
no box
H11/11
World Cup
Ukraine
#34
L
72-79
72
79
-7
no box
A14/11
World Cup
Spain
#7
L
61-80
61
80
-19
no box
H23/02
World Cup
Georgia
#32
W
80-77
80
77
+3
no box
A26/02
World Cup
Hungary
#35
W
70-65
70
65
+5
69avg 67
H22/02
EuroBasket
Turkey
#20
L
75-76
75
76
-1
66avg 67
A25/02
EuroBasket
Italy
#9
L
71-95
71
95
-24
65avg 67
H22/11
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-20
5-15
26-16
20-15
15-26
13-25
17-18
12-18
14-19
22-22
27-14
17-25
17-26
21-19
25-15
22-28
18-14
15-21
20-16
19-28
19-22
14-21
15-19
13-18
19-19
24-23
19-18
18-17
16-19
17-18
16-14
21-14
16-16
14-19
17-19
28-22
12-27
13-22
29-16
17-30
153.0Avg total
72.9Scored
80.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)72.078.7150.7-6.733%
Season at home (2)70.580.0150.5-9.550%
Season away (1)75.076.0151.0-1.00%
Last 10 (10)72.980.1153.0-7.240%
Last 5 (5)71.478.6150.0-7.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)69.986.9156.7-17.00%
vs Similar (11)85.586.1171.5-0.645%
vs Weaker (12)83.271.6154.8+11.792%
This opponent (Italy) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +5.1+5.1Q1: -4.6-4.6Q2Q2: -0.8-0.8Q2: -4.7-4.7Q3Q3: -1.4-1.4Q3: +4.6+4.6Q4Q4: +4.8+4.8Q4: -2.8-2.8
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +5.1+5.1Q1: -4.6-4.6Q2Q2: -0.8-0.8Q2: -4.7-4.7Q3Q3: -1.4-1.4Q3: +4.6+4.6Q4Q4: +4.8+4.8Q4: -2.8-2.8
ItalyIceland
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ItalyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Angola
#19
W
43-40
43
40
+3
A25/08
World Cup
Dominican Republic
#12
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H27/08
World Cup
Philippines
#44
W
48-39
48
39
+9
A29/08
World Cup
Serbia
#13
L
40-42
40
42
-2
A01/09
World Cup
Puerto Rico
#10
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H03/09
World Cup
Latvia
#3
L
42-46
42
46
-4
H07/09
World Cup
Slovenia
#24
L
41-42
41
42
-1
H09/09
World Cup
Turkey
#20
W
50-39
50
39
+11
H22/02
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
L
36-37
36
37
-1
A25/02
EuroBasket
Iceland
#25
W
49-25
49
25
+24
A22/11
EuroBasket
81.1Avg total
42.7Scored
38.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.739.482.1+3.360%-
Last 30 at home (14)44.739.283.9+5.571%-
Last 30 away (16)40.939.580.4+1.450%-
Last 10 (10)42.738.481.1+4.360%-
Last 5 (5)43.637.881.4+5.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)40.840.681.4+0.138%-
vs Similar (14)40.840.581.3+0.357%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)48.036.184.1+11.988%-
This opponent (Iceland) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
IcelandLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Netherlands
#77
L
21-35
21
35
-14
H01/07
World Cup
Spain
#7
L
28-51
28
51
-23
A24/08
World Cup
Ukraine
#34
L
36-41
36
41
-5
H27/08
World Cup
Georgia
#32
L
38-45
38
45
-7
H11/11
World Cup
Ukraine
#34
L
33-35
33
35
-2
A14/11
World Cup
Spain
#7
L
33-43
33
43
-10
H23/02
World Cup
Georgia
#32
W
43-42
43
42
+1
A26/02
World Cup
Hungary
#35
L
33-37
33
37
-4
H22/02
EuroBasket
Turkey
#20
L
30-35
30
35
-5
A25/02
EuroBasket
Italy
#9
L
25-49
25
49
-24
H22/11
EuroBasket
73.3Avg total
32.0Scored
41.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.639.778.3-1.143%-
Last 30 at home (15)38.138.576.6-0.547%-
Last 30 away (15)39.240.980.1-1.740%-
Last 10 (10)32.041.373.3-9.310%-
Last 5 (5)32.841.274.0-8.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)32.943.776.6-10.929%-
vs Similar (11)40.041.381.3-1.327%-
vs Weaker (12)40.835.976.7+4.867%-
This opponent (Italy) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Italytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Italy: 87.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀10%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.0 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.0 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.0 pts a game · 10% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.8 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.023.0
57.5%
50.6%46.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.010.7
39.5%
32.5%32.0
🏀 Free throws12.09.0
75.0%
71.4%9.0
They take 67.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Icelandtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Iceland: 71.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.0 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.0 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.3 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.8 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.017.0
51.5%
50.6%34.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.77.7
29.9%
32.5%23.0
🏀 Free throws17.314.3
82.7%
71.4%14.3
They take 58.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 3/3 games with a box score before 25 Nov 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Italy
WWWLLWWWLW
Iceland
LLWWLLLWLW
#9
League position
#25
+23.6
Net rating
-8.5
123.4
Offensive rating
100.6
99.7
Defensive rating
109.1
58.2%
Effective FG%
48.6%
52.1%
Opp. effective FG%
48.5%
16.5%
Turnover %
17.5%
38.8%
Off. rebound %
23.8%
0.18
Free-throw rate
0.30
39.5%
3-point %
29.9%
69.3%
Assist %
66.2%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence123.4 · 100.6Defence99.7 · 109.1Shooting58.2% · 48.6%3-point %39.5% · 29.9%Ball care16.5% · 17.5%Off. rebounds38.8% · 23.8%Free throws0.18 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)70% · 40%
■ Italy   ■ Iceland
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Italy wins
1
Iceland wins
DateGameScore
22/11/24Iceland v Italy71-95
27/02/22Italy v Iceland95-87
24/02/22Iceland v Italy107-105 OT
Italylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/11/24AIceland95-71
25/02/24AHungary83-62
22/02/24HTurkey87-80
09/09/23HSlovenia85-89
07/09/23HLatvia82-87
03/09/23HPuerto Rico73-57
01/09/23ASerbia78-76
29/08/23APhilippines90-83
27/08/23HDominican Republic82-87
25/08/23AAngola81-67
Icelandlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/11/24HItaly71-95
25/02/24ATurkey75-76
22/02/24HHungary70-65
26/02/23AGeorgia80-77
23/02/23HSpain61-80
14/11/22AUkraine72-79
11/11/22HGeorgia85-88
27/08/22HUkraine91-88 OT
24/08/22ASpain57-87
01/07/22HNetherlands67-66

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Italy
EuroBasket 2023
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeW100%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game88.387.089.0
Allowed / game71.080.066.5
Point differential+17.3+7.0+22.5
Avg total159.3167.0155.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%0%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Iceland
EuroBasket 2023
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLL33%
HomeWL50%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %33%50%0%
Points / game72.070.575.0
Allowed / game78.780.076.0
Point differential-6.7-9.5-1.0
Avg total150.7150.5151.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Serbia440100%80.856.8+24.0
2 Italy330100%88.371.0+17.3
3 France440100%76.863.5+13.2
4 Latvia440100%75.870.5+5.2
5 Croatia1411379%84.970.5+14.4
6 Lithuania43175%79.567.0+12.5
7 Montenegro43175%82.875.8+7.0
8 Turkey43175%82.276.0+6.2
9 Greece43175%73.869.0+4.8
10 Israel43175%81.276.5+4.8
11 Slovenia43175%83.079.0+4.0
12 Estonia43175%76.873.5+3.2
13 Portugal107370%82.773.0+9.7
14 Bulgaria149564%78.674.4+4.2
15 North Macedonia106460%74.069.6+4.4
16 Poland106460%79.475.9+3.5
17 Slovakia148657%72.970.4+2.6
18 Romania148657%72.072.1-0.1
19 Germany42250%74.865.5+9.2
20 Bosnia & Herzegovina42250%87.279.8+7.5
21 Belgium42250%72.068.2+3.8
22 Czech Republic42250%80.076.2+3.8
23 Spain42250%72.070.0+2.0
24 Georgia42250%75.874.5+1.2
25 Denmark189950%74.473.6+0.8
26 Great Britain42250%80.083.2-3.2
27 Sweden42250%72.079.2-7.2
28 Norway146843%71.176.0-4.9
29 Ireland104640%73.984.4-10.5
30 Austria1661038%75.077.2-2.2
31 Switzerland1661038%67.871.9-4.2
32 Kosovo83538%76.081.2-5.2
33 Iceland31233%72.078.7-6.7
34 Netherlands41325%79.284.5-5.2
35 Finland41325%74.283.2-9.0
36 Luxembourg81712%75.685.2-9.6
37 Albania81712%73.285.8-12.5
38 Cyprus161156%63.680.8-17.2
39 Ukraine4040%74.585.0-10.5
40 Hungary4040%67.281.5-14.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 40 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Italy920271874
Iceland2210262381
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