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UTEP vs Incarnate Word Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 09 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 82-65
Projected total 146.2
Final 79-60
46-29 33-31
Position#212
Record0-1
FormLLWLL
Points / game76.0
Allowed / game84.0
UTEP 🏆
USA
Vs
93%
■ UTEP 93%■ INCA 7%
Pythia win probability
Incarnate Word
USA
Position#368
Record0-2
FormLWLLL
Points / game57.0
Allowed / game78.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

UTEP faces Incarnate Word on 8 November 2026 in an NCAA contest, with the model designating UTEP as the clear favourite thanks to a 93% win probability and a projected 82-65 score that reflects their 0-1 season record, 76.0 points per game and 84.0 allowed per game, placing them 307th in the league, while Incarnate Word sits 0-2 with 57.0 points per game and 78.5 allowed per game, 350th. UTEP's last five games show one win and four losses, including a 78-71 victory over Kennesaw State and defeats to Northern Kentucky 76-84 and Jacksonville State 61-64, whereas Incarnate Word's five-game stretch also includes one win and four losses, with losses to Chicago State 54-66, Oklahoma State 60-91 and Stephen F. Austin 68-76. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 93% chance for UTEP to win and a 7% chance for Incarnate Word, with a 66% probability that UTEP covers the home line of -12.5 and a 61% probability that the total will exceed 141.5, while the overtime likelihood is 2%. The game is expected to finish 82-65 for UTEP, totaling 146.2 points.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

UTEP winWon
92.9%fair 1.08
Best odds1.13
Implied85.2%
Edge+7.7pp
Incarnate Word winLost
7.1%fair 14.09
Best odds6.75
Implied14.8%
Edge-7.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 08 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

UTEPUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sam Houston St.
#69
L
66-70
66
70
-4
A05/02
NCAA
New Mexico State
#178
W
91-88 OT
91
88
+3
H08/02
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
W
69-64
69
64
+5
A12/02
NCAA
Liberty
#26
L
64-73
64
73
-9
H14/02
NCAA
New Mexico State
#178
L
63-67
63
67
-4
A22/02
NCAA
Middle Tenn. St.
#179
L
67-77
67
77
-10
A27/02
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#151
L
65-97
65
97
-32
A28/02
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#113
W
78-71
78
71
+7
H06/03
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
L
61-64
61
64
-3
H07/03
NCAA
Northern Kentucky
#246
L
76-84
76
84
-8
A02/11
NCAA
1H
2H
33-36
33-34
32-39
40-33
33-33
36-31
26-28
38-45
25-35
38-32
26-34
41-43
39-49
26-48
35-25
43-46
29-32
32-32
38-42
38-42
145.5Avg total
70.0Scored
75.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)76.084.0160.0-8.00%
Season at homeno games
Season away (1)76.084.0160.0-8.00%
Last 10 (10)70.075.5145.5-5.530%
Last 5 (5)69.478.6148.0-9.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (26)66.273.5139.7-7.323%
vs Similar (2)70.062.0132.0+8.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (1)76.084.0160.0-8.00%
This opponent (Incarnate Word) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Incarnate WordUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
McNeese State
#15
L
64-81
64
81
-17
A07/02
NCAA
SE Louisiana
#343
L
62-74
62
74
-12
A10/02
NCAA
Nicholls State
#265
L
83-91
83
91
-8
H14/02
NCAA
New Orleans
#226
L
64-78
64
78
-14
H17/02
NCAA
East Texas A&M
#316
W
82-73
82
73
+9
A21/02
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#331
L
49-54
49
54
-5
A24/02
NCAA
Lamar
#286
W
72-60
72
60
+12
H28/02
NCAA
Stephen F. Austin
#12
L
68-76
68
76
-8
H03/03
NCAA
Oklahoma State
#10
L
60-91
60
91
-31
A03/11
NCAA
Chicago State
#307
L
54-66
54
66
-12
H06/11
NCAA
1H
2H
30-30
34-51
26-40
36-34
30-46
53-45
28-39
36-39
43-39
39-34
23-18
26-36
37-22
35-38
26-28
42-48
17-54
43-37
22-34
32-32
140.2Avg total
65.8Scored
74.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)57.078.5135.5-21.50%
Season at home (1)54.066.0120.0-12.00%
Season away (1)60.091.0151.0-31.00%
Last 10 (10)65.874.4140.2-8.620%
Last 5 (5)60.669.4130.0-8.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)68.177.8145.9-9.817%
vs Similar (7)67.773.7141.4-6.014%
vs Weaker (11)77.169.5146.5+7.664%
This opponent (UTEP) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 136.5Actual: Over 136.5
Over 136.5
72.3%
@ 1.47+9.8pp
Under 136.5
27.7%
@ 2.45-9.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.45
Over/Under 141.5 · main lineActual: Under 141.5
Over 141.5
61.1%
@ 1.92+11.4pp
Under 141.5
38.9%
@ 1.91-11.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
SBO
1.87
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
SBO
1.87
Betano
1.85
Over/Under 146.5Actual: Under 146.5
Over 146.5
48.9%
@ 2.45+11.4pp
Under 146.5
51.1%
@ 1.47-11.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.47

📊 3. Team Totals

UTEP total 73Actual: UTEP over 73
Over 73
81.7%
Under 73
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UTEP total 77 · main lineActual: UTEP over 77
Over 77
68.6%
@ 1.87+18.9pp
Under 77
31.4%
@ 1.85-18.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
UTEP total 81Actual: UTEP under 81
Over 81
52.5%
Under 81
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Incarnate Word total 62Actual: Incarnate Word under 62
Over 62
60.1%
Under 62
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Incarnate Word total 66 · main lineActual: Incarnate Word under 66
Over 66
43.6%
@ 1.87-6.0pp
Under 66
56.4%
@ 1.84+6.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Under
1xBet
1.84
Marathon Be
1.83
Incarnate Word total 70Actual: Incarnate Word under 70
Over 70
28.3%
Under 70
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread UTEP -15.5Actual: UTEP -15.5
UTEP -15.5
55.3%
@ 2.25+14.2pp
INCA +15.5
44.7%
@ 1.57-14.2pp
Best 5 market prices
UTEP
Betano
2.25
INCA
Betano
1.57
Spread UTEP -12.5 · main lineActual: UTEP -12.5
UTEP -12.5
65.6%
@ 1.94+16.0pp
INCA +12.5
34.4%
@ 1.91-16.0pp
Best 5 market prices
UTEP
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.87
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.80
INCA
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
SBO
1.87
BetVictor
1.83
Spread UTEP -9.5Actual: UTEP -9.5
UTEP -9.5
74.9%
@ 1.74+20.1pp
INCA +9.5
25.1%
@ 2.30-20.1pp
Best 5 market prices
UTEP
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathon Be
1.73
Betano
1.53
INCA
Betano
2.30
Pinnacle
2.11

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -3.7-3.71st half: -6.8-6.82nd half2nd half: -2.1-2.12nd half: -1.8-1.8
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -3.7-3.71st half: -6.8-6.82nd half2nd half: -2.1-2.12nd half: -1.8-1.8
UTEPIncarnate Word
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
UTEPLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sam Houston St.
#69
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A05/02
NCAA
New Mexico State
#178
L
32-39
32
39
-7
H08/02
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
D
33-33
33
33
+0
A12/02
NCAA
Liberty
#26
L
26-28
26
28
-2
H14/02
NCAA
New Mexico State
#178
L
25-35
25
35
-10
A22/02
NCAA
Middle Tenn. St.
#179
L
26-34
26
34
-8
A27/02
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#151
L
39-49
39
49
-10
A28/02
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#113
W
35-25
35
25
+10
H06/03
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
L
29-32
29
32
-3
H07/03
NCAA
Northern Kentucky
#246
L
38-42
38
42
-4
A02/11
NCAA
66.9Avg total
31.6Scored
35.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 67.5
Last 30 (30)31.335.466.7-4.227%47%
Last 30 at home (15)32.133.965.9-1.840%47%
Last 30 away (15)30.537.067.5-6.513%47%
Last 10 (10)31.635.366.9-3.710%40%
Last 5 (5)33.436.469.8-3.020%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (26)31.335.366.6-4.127%46%
vs Similar (2)28.530.559.0-2.050%0%
vs Weaker ◀ (1)38.042.080.0-4.00%100%
This opponent (Incarnate Word) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Incarnate WordLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
McNeese State
#15
D
30-30
30
30
+0
A07/02
NCAA
SE Louisiana
#343
L
26-40
26
40
-14
A10/02
NCAA
Nicholls State
#265
L
30-46
30
46
-16
H14/02
NCAA
New Orleans
#226
L
28-39
28
39
-11
H17/02
NCAA
East Texas A&M
#316
W
43-39
43
39
+4
A21/02
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#331
W
23-18
23
18
+5
A24/02
NCAA
Lamar
#286
W
37-22
37
22
+15
H28/02
NCAA
Stephen F. Austin
#12
L
26-28
26
28
-2
H03/03
NCAA
Oklahoma State
#10
L
17-54
17
54
-37
A03/11
NCAA
Chicago State
#307
L
22-34
22
34
-12
H06/11
NCAA
63.2Avg total
28.2Scored
35.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 67.5
Last 30 (30)31.834.566.3-2.740%43%
Last 30 at home (15)34.734.168.8+0.547%47%
Last 30 away (15)28.934.863.7-5.933%40%
Last 10 (10)28.235.063.2-6.830%30%
Last 5 (5)25.031.256.2-6.240%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)28.936.265.2-7.325%42%
vs Similar (7)27.934.462.3-6.614%14%
vs Weaker (11)37.532.570.0+4.973%64%
This opponent (UTEP) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: UTEP win
UTEP win
no forecast
@ 1.21
INCA win
no forecast
@ 4.45
1st half Spread UTEP -5 · main lineActual: UTEP -5
UTEP -5
no forecast
@ 1.82
INCA +5
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Over/Under 67.5 · main lineActual: Over 67.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
UTEP 1st half total 36.5 · main lineActual: UTEP over 36.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 2.05
Incarnate Word 1st half total 30.5 · main lineActual: Incarnate Word under 30.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Spread UTEP -6Actual: UTEP -6
UTEP -6
no forecast
@ 1.88
INCA +6
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Over/Under 65.5Actual: Over 65.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.60
Under
no forecast
@ 2.18
1st half Over/Under 69.5Actual: Over 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.22
Under
no forecast
@ 1.65
1st half Spread UTEP -3.5Actual: UTEP -3.5
UTEP -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
INCA +3.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
1st half Spread UTEP -7Actual: UTEP -7
UTEP -7
no forecast
@ 1.82
INCA +7
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Over/Under 63.5Actual: Over 63.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.45
Under
no forecast
@ 2.75
1st half Over/Under 71.5Actual: Over 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.57
Under
no forecast
@ 1.44
1st half Spread UTEP -2.5Actual: UTEP -2.5
UTEP -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.45
INCA +2.5
no forecast
@ 2.55
1st half Spread UTEP -8.5Actual: UTEP -8.5
UTEP -8.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
INCA +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
1st half Spread UTEP -1.5Actual: UTEP -1.5
UTEP -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.37
INCA +1.5
no forecast
@ 2.82
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: UTEP (regulation)
UTEP
no forecast
@ 1.25
Draw
no forecast
@ 26.00
INCA
no forecast
@ 5.42

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
UTEP win + total 141.5
🔒 Pro
INCA win + total 141.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: UTEP leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
UTEP over 75.573.2%1.71
Pinnacle
1.81
Betano
1.60		---+21.1ppWon
UTEP -977.0%1.68
Pinnacle
1.68		----+20.2ppWon
UTEP -9.574.9%1.67
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.73
Betano
1.53		--+20.1ppWon
UTEP -8.577.6%1.54
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.45		---+19.0ppWon
UTEP -4.586.9%1.33
Betano
1.33		----+17.6ppWon
UTEP over 74.576.4%1.52
Betano
1.52		----+16.8ppWon
UTEP -3.588.8%1.28
Betano
1.28		----+16.7ppWon
UTEP over 73.579.4%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+15.9ppWon
UTEP over 72.582.2%1.35
Betano
1.35		----+15.3ppWon
UTEP -1074.1%1.73
Marathon Bet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Pinnacle
1.62		--+15.3ppWon
UTEP -1171.0%1.77
1xBet
1.92
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathon Bet
1.69		--+14.7ppWon
UTEP -10.571.9%1.73
SBO
1.87
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.75
Pinnacle
1.65
Marathon Bet
1.64		+13.8ppWon
UTEP -7.580.2%1.39
Betano
1.39		----+13.8ppWon
UTEP -6.582.6%1.33
Betano
1.33		----+13.3ppWon
UTEP -5.584.9%1.28
Betano
1.28		----+12.8ppWon
UTEP (regulation)91.8%1.12
1xBet
1.14
Betano
1.13
Marathon Bet
1.08		--+12.4ppWon
Over 137.570.2%1.53
Betano
1.53		----+10.2ppWon
Over 136.572.3%1.47
Betano
1.47		----+9.8ppWon
Over 135.574.4%1.44
Betano
1.44		----+9.6ppWon
Over 134.576.3%1.38
Betano
1.38		----+9.0ppWon
UTEP win92.9%1.11
Pinnacle
1.13
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.11
WilliamHill
1.10
BetVictor
1.10		+7.7ppWon
Incarnate Word under 71.575.8%1.32
Betano
1.32		----+7.3ppWon
Overtime: no98.3%1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Betano
1.01		---+5.7pp-
Incarnate Word under 70.572.6%1.32
Betano
1.32		----+4.1ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
UTEP wins
0
Incarnate Word wins
No previous meetings.
UTEPlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/11/26ANorthern Kentucky76-84
07/03/26HJacksonville State61-64
06/03/26HKennesaw State78-71
28/02/26AWestern Kentucky65-97
27/02/26AMiddle Tenn. St.67-77
22/02/26ANew Mexico State63-67
14/02/26HLiberty64-73
12/02/26AJacksonville State69-64
08/02/26HNew Mexico State91-88 OT
05/02/26ASam Houston St.66-70
Incarnate Wordlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/26HChicago State54-66
03/11/26AOklahoma State60-91
03/03/26HStephen F. Austin68-76
28/02/26HLamar72-60
24/02/26ANorthwestern St.49-54
21/02/26AEast Texas A&M82-73
17/02/26HNew Orleans64-78
14/02/26HNicholls State83-91
10/02/26ASE Louisiana62-74
07/02/26AMcNeese State64-81

📊 11. Overall Statistics

UTEP
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallL0%
Home--
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1-1
Win %0%-0%
Points / game76.0-76.0
Allowed / game84.0-84.0
Point differential-8.0--8.0
Avg total160.0-160.0
Over 141.5100%-100%
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%-0%
Incarnate Word
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLL0%
HomeL0%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game57.054.060.0
Allowed / game78.566.091.0
Point differential-21.5-12.0-31.0
Avg total135.5120.0151.0
Over 141.550%0%100%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Conference USA conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Louisiana Tech220100%80.546.0+34.5
2 Kennesaw State220100%93.563.0+30.5
3 Florida International220100%93.066.5+26.5
4 Missouri State220100%83.561.0+22.5
5 Western Kentucky32167%86.367.7+18.7
6 Jacksonville State21150%101.571.0+30.5
7 Delaware21150%84.558.5+26.0
8 Liberty21150%85.063.0+22.0
9 Sam Houston St.21150%88.077.5+10.5
10 Middle Tenn. St.21150%81.081.0+0.0
11 New Mexico State21150%70.587.5-17.0
12 UTEP1010%76.084.0-8.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Southland conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Stephen F. Austin220100%104.546.5+58.0
2 Houston Christian220100%91.056.0+35.0
3 UTRGV220100%74.557.0+17.5
4 Lamar21150%102.572.5+30.0
5 Nicholls State21150%86.563.0+23.5
6 McNeese State21150%83.077.5+5.5
7 Texas A&M-CC21150%61.063.5-2.5
8 New Orleans21150%73.582.5-9.0
9 SE Louisiana21150%71.085.5-14.5
10 Incarnate Word2020%57.078.5-21.5
11 Northwestern St.3030%60.087.3-27.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
UTEP463379
Incarnate Word293160
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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