PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
UCF Knights face Mississippi State on 17 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model designating UCF as the clear favourite at 85% to 15%. UCF has gone 3-0 this season, averaging 86.3 points and allowing 79.7, while Mississippi State is also undefeated at 3-0, averaging 95.3 points and conceding 63.0, a higher offensive output but a more porous defence. UCF's home record is 3-0, with recent wins over South Alabama 76-69, Yale 87-75 and Florida Gulf Coast 96-95, whereas Mississippi State's recent victories were against Jackson State 98-57, Northwestern St. 82-44 and Tennessee Tech 106-88, all at home. The teams have not met this season, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a score of 88-76 for UCF, a total of 164.1 points, and a 3% chance of overtime. The model gives the home team a 85% probability of covering the spread, with a 0% chance of an over. The Knights' recent 96-95 win shows they can keep games close even against high-scoring opponents, a factor that will likely influence the outcome.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 85.8 | 77.2 | 163.0 | +8.5 | 100% |
| Season at home (4) | 85.8 | 77.2 | 163.0 | +8.5 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 79.1 | 80.5 | 159.6 | -1.4 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 82.8 | 76.8 | 159.6 | +6.0 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (7) | 73.4 | 79.7 | 153.1 | -6.3 | 43% |
| vs Similar (15) | 80.5 | 79.5 | 160.1 | +1.0 | 53% |
| vs Weaker (8) | 82.4 | 73.2 | 155.6 | +9.1 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 87.2 | 67.5 | 154.8 | +19.8 | 75% |
| Season at home (4) | 87.2 | 67.5 | 154.8 | +19.8 | 75% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 80.8 | 84.4 | 165.2 | -3.6 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 82.0 | 69.8 | 151.8 | +12.2 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (20) | 74.6 | 85.2 | 159.8 | -10.7 | 25% |
| vs Similar (7) | 82.6 | 73.1 | 155.7 | +9.4 | 71% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (3) | 95.3 | 63.0 | 158.3 | +32.3 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.5 | 36.7 | 73.2 | -0.2 | 43% | - |
| Last 30 at home (19) | 38.2 | 36.4 | 74.5 | +1.8 | 47% | - |
| Last 30 away (11) | 33.5 | 37.3 | 70.8 | -3.7 | 36% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 33.1 | 38.2 | 71.3 | -5.1 | 10% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 34.0 | 35.2 | 69.2 | -1.2 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (7) | 34.9 | 37.0 | 71.9 | -2.1 | 43% | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 36.3 | 37.7 | 74.0 | -1.5 | 40% | - |
| vs Weaker (8) | 38.2 | 34.5 | 72.8 | +3.8 | 50% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.5 | 37.7 | 75.2 | -0.3 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 37.2 | 36.3 | 73.5 | +0.8 | 56% | - |
| Last 30 away (12) | 37.9 | 39.8 | 77.8 | -1.9 | 42% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 39.4 | 41.6 | 81.0 | -2.2 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 43.4 | 32.8 | 76.2 | +10.6 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (20) | 35.1 | 40.4 | 75.5 | -5.2 | 35% | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 38.3 | 33.1 | 71.4 | +5.1 | 71% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (3) | 51.0 | 31.0 | 82.0 | +20.0 | 100% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Georgia Southern | 84-70 |
| 11/11/26 | H | South Alabama | 76-69 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Yale | 87-75 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Florida Gulf Coast | 96-95 OT |
| 20/03/26 | A | UCLA | 71-75 |
| 12/03/26 | A | Arizona | 59-81 |
| 11/03/26 | H | Cincinnati | 66-65 OT |
| 07/03/26 | A | West Virginia | 62-77 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Oklahoma State | 104-111 OT |
| 01/03/26 | H | Baylor | 86-87 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Xavier | 63-81 |
| 10/11/26 | H | Jackson State | 98-57 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Northwestern St. | 82-44 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Tennessee Tech | 106-88 |
| 11/03/26 | A | Auburn | 61-79 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Georgia | 96-102 |
| 04/03/26 | A | Florida | 74-108 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Missouri | 64-88 |
| 26/02/26 | A | Alabama | 75-100 |
| 21/02/26 | A | South Carolina | 89-97 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWW | 100% |
| Home | WWWW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 85.8 | 85.8 | - |
| Allowed / game | 77.2 | 77.2 | - |
| Point differential | +8.5 | +8.5 | - |
| Avg total | 163.0 | 163.0 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 50% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 25% | 25% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWL | 75% |
| Home | WWWL | 75% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 | - |
| Win % | 75% | 75% | - |
| Points / game | 87.2 | 87.2 | - |
| Allowed / game | 67.5 | 67.5 | - |
| Point differential | +19.8 | +19.8 | - |
| Avg total | 154.8 | 154.8 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 75% | 75% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Baylor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 95.3 | 59.7 | +35.7 |
| 2 |  West Virginia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.7 | 53.3 | +32.3 |
| 3 |  Kansas | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 59.7 | +31.3 |
| 4 |  TCU | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 67.2 | +27.8 |
| 5 |  Arizona State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 85.5 | 63.2 | +22.2 |
| 6 |  Brigham Young | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 96.5 | 75.8 | +20.8 |
| 7 |  Texas Tech | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 78.7 | 59.3 | +19.3 |
| 8 |  Utah Utes | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 72.7 | 61.3 | +11.3 |
| 9 | UCF Knights | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 85.8 | 77.2 | +8.5 |
| 10 |  Arizona | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 87.2 | 74.0 | +13.2 |
| 11 |  Houston | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 84.7 | 62.3 | +22.3 |
| 12 |  Oklahoma State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 92.7 | 72.0 | +20.7 |
| 13 |  Iowa State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.0 | 61.3 | +19.7 |
| 14 |  Cincinnati | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 73.7 | 60.0 | +13.7 |
| 15 |  Colorado | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.0 | 70.3 | +10.7 |
| 16 |  Kansas State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 83.3 | 76.0 | +7.3 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Texas | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 100.0 | 57.0 | +43.0 |
| 2 |  LSU | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 52.7 | +41.3 |
| 3 |  Ole Miss | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 56.3 | +37.7 |
| 4 |  Texas A&M | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 99.2 | 67.2 | +32.0 |
| 5 |  Vanderbilt | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 90.2 | 60.2 | +30.0 |
| 6 |  South Carolina | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 78.7 | 54.7 | +24.0 |
| 7 |  Alabama | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 97.0 | 76.0 | +21.0 |
| 8 |  Florida | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 82.2 | 62.5 | +19.8 |
| 9 |  Tennessee | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 81.0 | 61.3 | +19.7 |
| 10 |  Georgia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 81.8 | 70.2 | +11.5 |
| 11 | Mississippi St. | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 87.2 | 67.5 | +19.8 |
| 12 |  Arkansas | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 83.2 | 67.8 | +15.5 |
| 13 |  Oklahoma | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 75.8 | 63.8 | +12.0 |
| 14 |  Kentucky | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 80.2 | 75.8 | +4.5 |
| 15 |  Missouri | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 97.0 | 66.0 | +31.0 |
| 16 |  Auburn | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 78.7 | 64.0 | +14.7 |
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