Mississippi State faces Xavier on 13 November 2026 in the NCAA, with Pythia designating Mississippi State as the clear favourite, a rating driven by their undefeated 3-0 record, 95.3 points per game and 63.0 allowed per game, while Xavier also stands 3-0 but averages 91.0 points and 53.3 allowed; the model gives Mississippi State an 81% chance of winning versus Xavier's 19%. Mississippi State has gone 3-0 in all games, 3-0 at home, and won three of their last five, including a 98-57 triumph over Jackson State, an 82-44 win over Northwestern State and a 106-88 victory over Tennessee Tech; Xavier has likewise won all three of its games, 4-1 in its last five, with recent home wins of 100-55 over Detroit, 76-53 over Eastern Michigan and 97-52 over Mount St. Mary's. Their head-to-head history is not recorded. Pythia projects a 84-74 score for Mississippi State, a total of 157.6 points, with an 83% probability that Mississippi State covers the 1.5-point line and a 33% chance of the over on the 164.5 total; the overtime probability sits at 4%. The next game will see Mississippi State maintain its winning streak against a Xavier side that has yet to lose.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mississippi St. winLost
80.9%fair 1.24
Best odds2.45
Implied39.5%
Edge+41.4pp
Xavier winWon
19.1%fair 5.23
Best odds1.67
Implied60.5%
Edge-41.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:45 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Mississippi St.) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 159.5Actual: Under 159.5
Over 159.5
44.8%
@ 1.42-19.8pp
Under 159.5
55.2%
@ 2.60+19.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Under
Betano
2.60
Over/Under 164.5 · main lineActual: Under 164.5
Over 164.5
33.2%
@ 1.83-17.7pp
Under 164.5
66.8%
@ 2.00+17.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
Under
Betano
2.00
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.90
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 169.5Actual: Under 169.5
Over 169.5
23.1%
@ 2.27-17.4pp
Under 169.5
76.9%
@ 1.55+17.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.27
Under
Betano
1.55
📊 3. Team Totals
Mississippi St. total 76.5Actual: Mississippi St. under 76.5
Over 76.5
76.6%
@ 1.35+9.5pp
Under 76.5
23.4%
@ 2.75-9.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Under
Betano
2.75
Mississippi St. total 80.5 · main lineActual: Mississippi St. under 80.5
Over 80.5
62.8%
@ 1.85+11.7pp
Under 80.5
37.2%
@ 2.00-11.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.72
Under
Betano
2.00
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Mississippi St. total 84.5Actual: Mississippi St. under 84.5
Over 84.5
47.1%
@ 2.27+7.3pp
Under 84.5
52.9%
@ 1.50-7.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.27
Under
Betano
1.50
Xavier total 80Actual: Xavier over 80
Over 80
26.3%
Under 80
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Xavier total 84 · main lineActual: Xavier under 84
Over 84
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under 84
no forecast
@ 1.86
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Xavier total 87.5Actual: Xavier under 87.5
Over 87.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
Under 87.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.35
Under
Betano
1.47
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Mississippi St. -1.5Actual: Xavier +1.5
MISS -1.5
78.9%
@ 2.65+40.7pp
XAVI +1.5
21.1%
@ 1.55-40.7pp
Best 5 market prices
MISS
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.27
XAVI
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.47
Spread Mississippi St. +1.5 · main lineActual: Xavier -1.5
MISS +1.5
82.6%
@ 2.12+37.3pp
XAVI -1.5
17.4%
@ 1.83-37.3pp
Best 5 market prices
MISS
Bet365
2.12
Betano
2.07
1xBet
1.83
XAVI
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.72
Bet365
1.64
Spread Mississippi St. +4.5Actual: Xavier -4.5
MISS +4.5
88.6%
@ 1.77+35.7pp
XAVI -4.5
11.4%
@ 2.02-35.7pp
Best 5 market prices
MISS
Marathon Be
1.77
Bet365
1.74
Betano
1.70
XAVI
Betano
2.02
Marathon Be
1.97
Bet365
1.95
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Mississippi St.Xavier
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Mississippi St. -2
78.1%
2.75
Bet365
2.75
-
-
-
-
+43.9pp
Lost
Mississippi St. -4
71.9%
3.30
Bet365
3.30
-
-
-
-
+43.5pp
Lost
Mississippi St. -3
74.8%
2.95
Bet365
2.95
-
-
-
-
+43.1pp
Lost
Mississippi St. -1
80.5%
2.50
Bet365
2.50
-
-
-
-
+43.0pp
Lost
Mississippi St. win
80.9%
2.34
Bet365
2.45
WilliamHill
2.38
BetVictor
2.38
Marathon Bet
2.36
SBO
2.33
+41.4pp
Lost
Mississippi St. (regulation)
78.7%
2.38
Marathon Bet
2.50
Betano
2.27
-
-
-
+41.0pp
Lost
Mississippi St. +1
82.3%
2.22
Bet365
2.22
-
-
-
-
+40.7pp
Lost
Mississippi St. -1.5
78.9%
2.46
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.27
-
-
-
+40.7pp
Lost
Mississippi St. +2
84.7%
2.10
Bet365
2.10
-
-
-
-
+40.6pp
Lost
Mississippi St. -3.5
72.8%
2.88
Bet365
3.10
Betano
2.65
-
-
-
+40.2pp
Lost
Mississippi St. -2.5
75.5%
2.63
Bet365
2.82
Betano
2.45
-
-
-
+40.2pp
Lost
Mississippi St. +3
86.6%
1.94
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.93
-
-
-
+39.0pp
Lost
Mississippi St. +1.5
82.6%
2.01
Bet365
2.12
Betano
2.07
1xBet
1.83
-
-
+37.3pp
Lost
Mississippi St. +3.5
86.8%
1.85
Bet365
1.92
SBO
1.88
BetVictor
1.83
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.80
+37.2pp
Lost
Xavier under 80.5
74.5%
2.42
Betano
2.42
-
-
-
-
+37.1pp
Lost
Mississippi St. +4
88.4%
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
-
-
-
+37.0pp
Lost
Xavier under 79.5
71.4%
2.62
Betano
2.62
-
-
-
-
+36.9pp
Lost
Mississippi St. +2.5
85.1%
1.93
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.98
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
+36.6pp
Lost
Mississippi St. +4.5
88.6%
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.77
Bet365
1.74
Betano
1.70
-
-
+35.7pp
Lost
Mississippi St. +5
90.0%
1.69
Marathon Bet
1.71
Bet365
1.68
-
-
-
+35.4pp
Lost
Mississippi St. +6
91.4%
1.60
Bet365
1.60
-
-
-
-
+33.5pp
Lost
Mississippi St. +5.5
90.1%
1.64
Bet365
1.66
Marathon Bet
1.65
Betano
1.60
-
-
+33.4pp
Lost
Mississippi St. +6.5
91.5%
1.55
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
+32.0pp
Lost
Mississippi St. +7
92.7%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+31.4pp
Lost
Mississippi St. +7.5
92.7%
1.48
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+30.1pp
Lost
Mississippi St. +8
93.7%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+29.5pp
Lost
Mississippi St. +8.5
93.8%
1.42
Bet365
1.43
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+28.5pp
Lost
Mississippi St. +9
94.7%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+27.7pp
Lost
Mississippi St. +9.5
94.7%
1.36
Bet365
1.37
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
+26.8pp
Lost
Mississippi St. +10
95.5%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+26.0pp
Lost
Mississippi St. +10.5
95.5%
1.31
Bet365
1.32
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+24.9pp
Lost
Mississippi St. +11
96.1%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+23.8pp
Lost
Mississippi St. +11.5
96.2%
1.26
Bet365
1.27
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
+22.9pp
Lost
Under 166
70.4%
1.79
SBO
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.76
-
-
-
+19.5pp
Won
Mississippi St. +13.5
97.2%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+19.5pp
Lost
Under 166.5
71.0%
1.75
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.73
Marathon Bet
1.72
-
-
+18.0pp
Won
Under 168.5
75.0%
1.62
Betano
1.62
-
-
-
-
+18.0pp
Won
Under 167.5
73.1%
1.67
Betano
1.67
-
-
-
-
+18.0pp
Won
Under 169.5
76.9%
1.55
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
-
+17.4pp
Won
Under 170.5
78.7%
1.50
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
-
+17.1pp
Won
Under 171.5
80.3%
1.44
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
-
+16.4pp
Won
Under 172.5
82.0%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+15.9pp
Won
Mississippi St. +18.5
98.8%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+12.7pp
Won
Mississippi St. over 75.5
79.5%
1.33
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Lost
Mississippi St. over 78.5
70.1%
1.50
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Lost
Mississippi St. +23.5
99.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Won
Mississippi St. over 77.5
73.5%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Lost
Mississippi St. over 76.5
76.6%
1.35
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Lost
Overtime: no
96.4%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Won
Xavier +21.5
84.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.2pp
Won
Xavier +16.5
72.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-17.4pp
Won
Under 167
72.5%
1.67
Marathon Bet
1.67
-
-
-
-
-
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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