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UCF Knights vs SMU Mustangs Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 09 Mar 2023
Tip-off: 19:30
Final 76-70
28-36 48-34
Position#148
Record17-13
FormLLWLW
Points / game72.0
Allowed / game65.3
UCF Knights 🏆
USA
vs
SMU Mustangs
USA
Position#327
Record10-21
FormLWLLL
Points / game70.3
Allowed / game75.5
USANCAA
Other2022-23
Meetings · UCF Knights v SMU Mustangs
09 Mar 2023
UCF 76
SMU 70
08 Jan 2023
UCF 85
SMU 53
23 Jan 2021
UCF 65
SMU 78
04 Mar 2020
UCF 61
SMU 58
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

UCF Knights winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
SMU Mustangs winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

UCF KnightsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Temple
#210
L
70-77 OT
70
77
-7
H28/01
NCAA
Cincinnati
#91
L
64-73
64
73
-9
A04/02
NCAA
Wichita State
#176
W
72-67
72
67
+5
A09/02
NCAA
Tulsa
#361
W
96-52
96
52
+44
H12/02
NCAA
Memphis
#42
L
63-64
63
64
-1
A17/02
NCAA
Cincinnati
#91
L
71-73
71
73
-2
H19/02
NCAA
South Florida
#249
L
75-82
75
82
-7
H23/02
NCAA
Tulsa
#361
W
68-49
68
49
+19
A26/02
NCAA
Temple
#210
L
55-57
55
57
-2
A03/03
NCAA
East Carolina
#220
W
84-58
84
58
+26
H05/03
NCAA
1H
2H
29-36
33-26
20-31
44-42
30-36
42-31
51-31
45-21
35-44
28-20
30-33
41-40
40-48
35-34
32-14
36-35
20-22
35-35
40-25
44-33
137.0Avg total
71.8Scored
65.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)72.065.3137.3+6.657%
Season at home (19)75.565.2140.7+10.363%
Season away (11)65.865.5131.4+0.345%
Last 10 (10)71.865.2137.0+6.640%
Last 5 (5)70.663.8134.4+6.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)68.076.5144.5-8.50%
vs Similar (15)71.268.3139.5+2.953%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)73.560.2133.6+13.369%
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SMU MustangsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South Florida
#249
W
82-80
82
80
+2
H29/01
NCAA
Tulane
#89
L
52-74
52
74
-22
A02/02
NCAA
East Carolina
#220
L
72-77
72
77
-5
A04/02
NCAA
Temple
#210
W
72-71
72
71
+1
H09/02
NCAA
Wichita State
#176
L
89-91 OT
89
91
-2
A12/02
NCAA
Houston
#7
L
65-80
65
80
-15
H17/02
NCAA
East Carolina
#220
W
86-70
86
70
+16
H19/02
NCAA
South Florida
#249
L
67-71
67
71
-4
A26/02
NCAA
Memphis
#42
L
62-81
62
81
-19
H03/03
NCAA
Cincinnati
#91
L
74-97
74
97
-23
A05/03
NCAA
1H
2H
45-33
37-47
28-39
24-35
32-40
40-37
32-30
40-41
39-38
36-37
29-43
36-37
35-28
51-42
38-26
29-45
37-50
25-31
34-51
40-46
151.3Avg total
72.1Scored
79.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)70.375.5145.8-5.332%
Season at home (18)71.972.0143.9-0.144%
Season away (13)67.980.5148.4-12.515%
Last 10 (10)72.179.2151.3-7.130%
Last 5 (5)70.879.8150.6-9.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)68.479.4147.8-11.017%
vs Similar (4)75.266.5141.8+8.850%
vs Weaker (3)75.363.3138.7+12.0100%
This opponent (UCF Knights) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +0.7+0.71st half: -2.9-2.92nd half2nd half: +6.6+6.62nd half: -4.0-4.0
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +0.7+0.71st half: -2.9-2.92nd half2nd half: +6.6+6.62nd half: -4.0-4.0
UCF KnightsSMU Mustangs
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
UCF KnightsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Temple
#210
L
29-36
29
36
-7
H28/01
NCAA
Cincinnati
#91
L
20-31
20
31
-11
A04/02
NCAA
Wichita State
#176
L
30-36
30
36
-6
A09/02
NCAA
Tulsa
#361
W
51-31
51
31
+20
H12/02
NCAA
Memphis
#42
L
35-44
35
44
-9
A17/02
NCAA
Cincinnati
#91
L
30-33
30
33
-3
H19/02
NCAA
South Florida
#249
L
40-48
40
48
-8
H23/02
NCAA
Tulsa
#361
W
32-14
32
14
+18
A26/02
NCAA
Temple
#210
L
20-22
20
22
-2
A03/03
NCAA
East Carolina
#220
W
40-25
40
25
+15
H05/03
NCAA
64.7Avg total
32.7Scored
32.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.030.962.9+1.150%-
Last 30 at home (19)34.630.865.4+3.868%-
Last 30 away (11)27.531.258.6-3.718%-
Last 10 (10)32.732.064.7+0.730%-
Last 5 (5)32.428.460.8+4.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)32.538.571.0-6.00%-
vs Similar (15)29.632.161.7-2.547%-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)34.728.463.1+6.362%-
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SMU MustangsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South Florida
#249
W
45-33
45
33
+12
H29/01
NCAA
Tulane
#89
L
28-39
28
39
-11
A02/02
NCAA
East Carolina
#220
L
32-40
32
40
-8
A04/02
NCAA
Temple
#210
W
32-30
32
30
+2
H09/02
NCAA
Wichita State
#176
W
39-38
39
38
+1
A12/02
NCAA
Houston
#7
L
29-43
29
43
-14
H17/02
NCAA
East Carolina
#220
W
35-28
35
28
+7
H19/02
NCAA
South Florida
#249
W
38-26
38
26
+12
A26/02
NCAA
Memphis
#42
L
37-50
37
50
-13
H03/03
NCAA
Cincinnati
#91
L
34-51
34
51
-17
A05/03
NCAA
72.7Avg total
34.9Scored
37.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.334.967.1-2.640%-
Last 30 at home (17)32.833.165.9-0.347%-
Last 30 away (13)31.537.268.7-5.631%-
Last 10 (10)34.937.872.7-2.950%-
Last 5 (5)34.639.674.2-5.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)32.536.569.0-4.039%-
vs Similar (4)33.230.263.5+3.050%-
vs Weaker (3)29.328.357.7+1.033%-
This opponent (UCF Knights) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
UCF Knights wins
3
SMU Mustangs wins
DateGameScore
08/01/23UCF Knights v SMU Mustangs85-53
02/01/22SMU Mustangs v UCF Knights72-60
23/01/21UCF Knights v SMU Mustangs65-78
05/03/20UCF Knights v SMU Mustangs61-58
09/01/20SMU Mustangs v UCF Knights81-74
UCF Knightslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/03/23HEast Carolina84-58
03/03/23ATemple55-57
26/02/23ATulsa68-49
23/02/23HSouth Florida75-82
19/02/23HCincinnati71-73
17/02/23AMemphis63-64
12/02/23HTulsa96-52
09/02/23AWichita State72-67
04/02/23ACincinnati64-73
28/01/23HTemple70-77 OT
SMU Mustangslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/03/23ACincinnati74-97
03/03/23HMemphis62-81
26/02/23ASouth Florida67-71
19/02/23HEast Carolina86-70
17/02/23HHouston65-80
12/02/23AWichita State89-91 OT
09/02/23HTemple72-71
04/02/23AEast Carolina72-77
02/02/23ATulane52-74
29/01/23HSouth Florida82-80

📊 11. Overall Statistics

UCF Knights
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLW57%
HomeLWLLW63%
AwayLWLWL45%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301911
Win %57%63%45%
Points / game72.075.565.8
Allowed / game65.365.265.5
Point differential+6.6+10.3+0.3
Avg total137.3140.7131.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%42%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won45% (11)33% (6)60% (5)
Overtime %17%21%9%
SMU Mustangs
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL32%
HomeWWLWL44%
AwayLLLLL15%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311813
Win %32%44%15%
Points / game70.371.967.9
Allowed / game75.572.080.5
Point differential-5.3-0.1-12.5
Avg total145.8143.9148.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+13%22%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (13)43% (7)33% (6)
Overtime %10%6%15%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big 12 conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Houston3129294%76.056.5+19.5
2 Arizona3125681%83.171.9+11.2
3 Kansas3125681%75.668.2+7.4
4 Kansas State3123874%75.868.7+7.1
5 Baylor32221069%77.270.2+6.9
6 Arizona State32211166%70.567.2+3.2
7 Cincinnati31201165%77.969.7+8.2
8 TCU31201165%75.568.0+7.5
9 Iowa State31191261%68.862.5+6.3
10 West Virginia32191359%76.870.8+5.9
11 UCF Knights30171357%72.065.3+6.6
12 Oklahoma State32181456%69.166.2+2.9
13 Brigham Young34191556%75.569.9+5.6
14 Utah Utes32171553%68.763.8+4.8
15 Colorado32171553%70.166.3+3.7
16 Texas Tech32161650%73.369.0+4.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virginia2923679%68.260.5+7.7
2 Duke3123874%71.863.8+8.0
3 NC State3223972%78.970.5+8.4
4 Clemson3122971%75.568.1+7.4
5 Pittsburgh32221069%76.369.7+6.7
6 North Carolina32201262%76.771.0+5.7
7 Miami (FL)63372659%76.573.1+3.4
8 Virginia Tech33191458%74.269.8+4.5
9 Wake Forest33191458%76.673.8+2.8
10 Syracuse32171553%74.172.9+1.2
11 Boston College33161748%66.670.2-3.6
12 Georgia Tech33151845%69.770.8-1.0
13 Stanford32141844%69.967.5+2.4
14 Notre Dame32112134%69.672.1-2.5
15 SMU Mustangs31102132%70.375.5-5.3
16 Florida State3292328%69.376.2-6.9
17 Louisville3242812%63.975.8-11.8
18 California323299%58.370.1-11.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
UCF Knights284876
SMU Mustangs363470
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