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UCF Knights vs SMU Mustangs Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 08 Jan 2023
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 85-53
34-25 51-28
Position#148
Record11-4
FormLWWLW
Points / game69.1
Allowed / game60.5
vs
Position#327
Record6-9
FormWWLWL
Points / game68.8
Allowed / game71.2
USANCAA
Other2022-23
Meetings · UCF Knights v SMU Mustangs
09 Mar 2023
UCF 76
SMU 70
08 Jan 2023
UCF 85
SMU 53
23 Jan 2021
UCF 65
SMU 78
04 Mar 2020
UCF 61
SMU 58
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

UCF Knights winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
SMU Mustangs winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

UCF KnightsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Evansville
#365
W
76-56
76
56
+20
H24/11
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#122
L
64-66
64
66
-2
H27/11
NCAA
Samford
#78
W
80-77 OT
80
77
+3
H04/12
NCAA
Tarleton
#183
W
75-49
75
49
+26
H11/12
NCAA
Ole Miss
#292
W
72-61
72
61
+11
A15/12
NCAA
Missouri
#56
L
66-68
66
68
-2
H17/12
NCAA
Stetson
#146
W
73-58
73
58
+15
H22/12
NCAA
Wichita State
#176
W
52-45
52
45
+7
H29/12
NCAA
Houston
#7
L
65-71
65
71
-6
A31/12
NCAA
East Carolina
#220
W
64-61
64
61
+3
A05/01
NCAA
1H
2H
35-30
41-26
26-32
38-34
33-31
37-39
30-27
45-22
36-26
36-35
36-35
30-33
38-32
35-26
26-23
26-22
31-39
34-32
25-27
39-34
129.9Avg total
68.7Scored
61.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)69.160.5129.6+8.773%
Season at home (11)70.559.8130.4+10.773%
Season away (4)65.262.2127.5+3.075%
Last 10 (10)68.761.2129.9+7.570%
Last 5 (5)64.060.6124.6+3.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)59.075.4134.4-16.40%
vs Similar (16)71.467.3138.8+4.169%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)69.657.3126.9+12.289%
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SMU MustangsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lamar
#339
W
75-50
75
50
+25
H27/11
NCAA
Texas A&M
#55
L
64-83
64
83
-19
A01/12
NCAA
Jackson State
#265
L
68-69
68
69
-1
H03/12
NCAA
Arizona State
#90
L
57-75
57
75
-18
H08/12
NCAA
TCU
#96
L
75-83
75
83
-8
H11/12
NCAA
Iona
#25
W
85-81
85
81
+4
H22/12
NCAA
Utah State
#41
W
77-74
77
74
+3
A24/12
NCAA
Hawaii
#80
L
57-58
57
58
-1
A26/12
NCAA
Tulsa
#361
W
92-67
92
67
+25
H01/01
NCAA
Houston
#7
L
53-87
53
87
-34
A06/01
NCAA
1H
2H
38-23
37-27
36-45
28-38
28-30
40-39
33-28
24-47
31-37
44-46
35-41
50-40
40-32
37-42
31-22
26-36
43-36
49-31
23-49
30-38
143.0Avg total
70.3Scored
72.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)68.871.2140.0-2.440%
Season at home (10)71.969.2141.1+2.750%
Season away (5)62.675.2137.8-12.620%
Last 10 (10)70.372.7143.0-2.440%
Last 5 (5)72.873.4146.2-0.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)67.277.5144.8-10.323%
vs Similar (6)72.062.8134.8+9.267%
vs Weaker (10)71.661.8133.4+9.880%
This opponent (UCF Knights) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +1.4+1.41st half: -0.5-0.52nd half2nd half: +5.8+5.82nd half: -1.9-1.9
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +1.4+1.41st half: -0.5-0.52nd half2nd half: +5.8+5.82nd half: -1.9-1.9
UCF KnightsSMU Mustangs
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
UCF KnightsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Evansville
#365
W
35-30
35
30
+5
H24/11
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#122
L
26-32
26
32
-6
H27/11
NCAA
Samford
#78
W
33-31
33
31
+2
H04/12
NCAA
Tarleton
#183
W
30-27
30
27
+3
H11/12
NCAA
Ole Miss
#292
W
36-26
36
26
+10
A15/12
NCAA
Missouri
#56
W
36-35
36
35
+1
H17/12
NCAA
Stetson
#146
W
38-32
38
32
+6
H22/12
NCAA
Wichita State
#176
W
26-23
26
23
+3
H29/12
NCAA
Houston
#7
L
31-39
31
39
-8
A31/12
NCAA
East Carolina
#220
L
25-27
25
27
-2
A05/01
NCAA
61.8Avg total
31.6Scored
30.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)31.230.361.5+0.957%-
Last 30 at home (19)33.228.361.5+4.979%-
Last 30 away (11)27.733.761.5-6.018%-
Last 10 (10)31.630.261.8+1.470%-
Last 5 (5)31.231.262.4+0.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)27.436.263.6-8.80%-
vs Similar (16)30.330.560.8-0.262%-
vs Weaker ◀ (9)34.926.761.6+8.278%-
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SMU MustangsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lamar
#339
W
38-23
38
23
+15
H27/11
NCAA
Texas A&M
#55
L
36-45
36
45
-9
A01/12
NCAA
Jackson State
#265
L
28-30
28
30
-2
H03/12
NCAA
Arizona State
#90
W
33-28
33
28
+5
H08/12
NCAA
TCU
#96
L
31-37
31
37
-6
H11/12
NCAA
Iona
#25
L
35-41
35
41
-6
H22/12
NCAA
Utah State
#41
W
40-32
40
32
+8
A24/12
NCAA
Hawaii
#80
W
31-22
31
22
+9
A26/12
NCAA
Tulsa
#361
W
43-36
43
36
+7
H01/01
NCAA
Houston
#7
L
23-49
23
49
-26
A06/01
NCAA
68.1Avg total
33.8Scored
34.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)31.433.064.5-1.650%-
Last 30 at home (20)32.433.065.4-0.750%-
Last 30 away (10)29.633.062.6-3.450%-
Last 10 (10)33.834.368.1-0.550%-
Last 5 (5)34.436.070.4-1.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)30.837.368.2-6.531%-
vs Similar (6)31.329.761.0+1.750%-
vs Weaker (10)31.930.262.1+1.770%-
This opponent (UCF Knights) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
UCF Knights wins
3
SMU Mustangs wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/01/23AEast Carolina64-61
31/12/22AHouston65-71
29/12/22HWichita State52-45
22/12/22HStetson73-58
17/12/22HMissouri66-68
15/12/22AOle Miss72-61
11/12/22HTarleton75-49
04/12/22HSamford80-77 OT
27/11/22HMiami (FL)64-66
24/11/22HEvansville76-56
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/01/23AHouston53-87
01/01/23HTulsa92-67
26/12/22AHawaii57-58
24/12/22AUtah State77-74
22/12/22HIona85-81
11/12/22HTCU75-83
08/12/22HArizona State57-75
03/12/22HJackson State68-69
01/12/22ATexas A&M64-83
27/11/22HLamar75-50

📊 11. Overall Statistics

UCF Knights
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW73%
HomeWWLWW73%
AwayWWLW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games15114
Win %73%73%75%
Points / game69.170.565.2
Allowed / game60.559.862.2
Point differential+8.7+10.7+3.0
Avg total129.6130.4127.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%45%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)25% (4)100% (2)
Overtime %20%18%25%
SMU Mustangs
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL40%
HomeLLLWW50%
AwayLLWLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games15105
Win %40%50%20%
Points / game68.871.962.6
Allowed / game71.269.275.2
Point differential-2.4+2.7-12.6
Avg total140.0141.1137.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%30%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)33% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %7%10%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big 12 conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Houston1615194%75.851.0+24.8
2 Kansas1514193%77.764.9+12.9
3 Kansas State1514193%79.766.9+12.8
4 Arizona1614288%85.872.5+13.3
5 TCU1513287%78.063.5+14.5
6 Iowa State1412286%70.658.2+12.4
7 Arizona State1512380%72.164.9+7.3
8 UCF Knights1511473%69.160.5+8.7
9 Utah Utes1712571%73.061.5+11.5
10 Cincinnati1611569%79.068.7+10.3
11 Brigham Young1913668%74.566.7+7.8
12 Texas Tech1510567%78.463.9+14.5
13 Baylor1510567%80.969.8+11.1
14 West Virginia1510567%78.368.1+10.2
15 Colorado1711665%74.866.6+8.2
16 Oklahoma State159660%69.361.5+7.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Clemson1613381%75.466.7+8.7
2 Virginia1411379%70.059.6+10.4
3 NC State1713476%79.467.8+11.6
4 Duke1612475%72.462.5+9.9
5 Virginia Tech1611569%74.364.8+9.6
6 North Carolina1611569%81.474.2+7.1
7 Pittsburgh1611569%75.268.2+7.0
8 Wake Forest1611569%76.172.2+3.9
9 Miami (FL)30191163%75.971.1+4.8
10 Syracuse1610662%74.669.3+5.3
11 Georgia Tech158753%71.169.1+1.9
12 Notre Dame168850%69.369.3+0.0
13 Boston College168850%64.767.3-2.6
14 SMU Mustangs156940%68.871.2-2.4
15 Stanford1551033%68.366.7+1.5
16 Florida State1651131%69.073.4-4.4
17 California1631319%61.566.6-5.1
18 Louisville1621412%62.674.4-11.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
UCF Knights345185
SMU Mustangs252853
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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