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UCF Knights vs South Alabama Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 11 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 87-71
Projected total 157.4
Final 76-69
32-34 44-35
Position#83
Record2-0
FormWLLWW
Points / game91.5
Allowed / game85.0
UCF Knights 🏆
USA
Vs
91%
■ UCF 91%■ SOUT 9%
Pythia win probability
South Alabama
USA
Position#224
Record1-1
FormWLLLW
Points / game80.0
Allowed / game83.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

The UCF Knights host the South Alabama Jaguars on 10 November 2026 in an NCAA matchup where the model names UCF the clear favourite, rating them 91% to win because of their undefeated 2-0 season, 91.5 points per game and 85.0 allowed per game, and a league position of 124, while South Alabama sits 242 with a 1-1 record, 80.0 points per game and 83.0 allowed per game. UCF's two-game season shows a 2-0 record, 91.5 points scored and 85.0 points allowed, and they remain unbeaten at home with a 2-0 home record and 91.5 points per game; their last five games include three wins and two losses, with recent victories over Yale 87-75 and Florida Gulf Coast 96-95, and a loss to UCLA 71-75 away. South Alabama's season is 1-1, 80.0 points scored and 83.0 allowed, and their last five games record is two wins and three losses, with recent wins over Jacksonville State 83-80 and losses to Ohio 77-86 and Georgia Southern 85-94. In head-to-head history the teams have met once, with the last meeting as written. Pythia projects a 87-71 score, a total of 157.4, a 91% home win probability, a 9% away win probability, a home line of -17.5 with a 44% chance to cover, a total line of 151.5 with a 64% over probability, and a 2% overtime chance, leaving the Knights poised to dominate the Jaguars.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

UCF Knights winWon
91.4%fair 1.09
Best odds1.05
Implied91.4%
Edge+0.1pp
South Alabama winLost
8.6%fair 11.68
Best odds14.00
Implied8.6%
Edge-0.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 07:05 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

UCF KnightsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah Utes
#333
W
73-71
73
71
+2
A22/02
NCAA
Brigham Young
#76
W
97-84
97
84
+13
A25/02
NCAA
Baylor
#200
L
86-87
86
87
-1
H01/03
NCAA
Oklahoma State
#140
L
104-111 OT
104
111
-7
H04/03
NCAA
West Virginia
#147
L
62-77
62
77
-15
A07/03
NCAA
Cincinnati
#161
W
66-65 OT
66
65
+1
H11/03
NCAA
Arizona
#7
L
59-81
59
81
-22
A12/03
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
71-75
71
75
-4
A20/03
NCAA
Florida Gulf Coast
#312
W
96-95 OT
96
95
+1
H03/11
NCAA
Yale
#327
W
87-75
87
75
+12
H07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
41-36
32-35
52-28
45-56
42-56
44-31
40-45
54-49
23-32
39-45
26-27
32-31
30-46
29-35
27-35
44-40
36-38
46-44
39-42
48-33
162.2Avg total
80.1Scored
82.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)91.585.0176.5+6.5100%
Season at home (2)91.585.0176.5+6.5100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)80.182.1162.2-2.050%
Last 5 (5)75.878.2154.0-2.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)73.479.7153.1-6.343%
vs Similar (17)81.679.5161.1+2.159%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)83.274.5157.7+8.7100%
This opponent (South Alabama) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
South AlabamaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Miss
#174
W
84-78
84
78
+6
A13/02
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
W
92-88 OT
92
88
+4
A14/02
NCAA
Marshall
#124
L
80-84
80
84
-4
A17/02
NCAA
Texas State
#125
L
82-90 OT
82
90
-8
H20/02
NCAA
Troy
#84
W
65-54
65
54
+11
H21/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
89-54
89
54
+35
H26/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
L
55-68
55
68
-13
H28/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
L
85-94
85
94
-9
H07/03
NCAA
Ohio
#181
L
77-86
77
86
-9
H03/11
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#266
W
83-80 OT
83
80
+3
H06/11
NCAA
1H
2H
42-36
42-42
32-41
51-42
35-48
45-36
33-40
42-35
33-26
32-28
42-14
47-40
29-35
26-33
43-40
42-54
35-34
42-52
23-32
43-34
156.8Avg total
79.2Scored
77.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)80.083.0163.0-3.050%
Season at home (2)80.083.0163.0-3.050%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)79.277.6156.8+1.650%
Last 5 (5)77.876.4154.2+1.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)74.085.5159.5-11.550%
vs Similar (20)73.473.5146.9-0.145%
vs Weaker (7)73.965.7139.6+8.171%
This opponent (UCF Knights) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 146.5Actual: Under 146.5
Over 146.5
74.7%
@ 1.50+12.2pp
Under 146.5
25.3%
@ 2.55-12.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.40
Over/Under 151.5 · main lineActual: Under 151.5
Over 151.5
63.9%
@ 1.93+14.5pp
Under 151.5
36.1%
@ 1.88-14.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.93
Betano
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.89
1xBet
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.88
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Over/Under 156.5Actual: Under 156.5
Over 156.5
51.8%
@ 2.60+15.3pp
Under 156.5
48.2%
@ 1.47-15.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.47
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45

📊 3. Team Totals

UCF Knights total 80Actual: UCF Knights under 80
Over 80
75.6%
Under 80
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCF Knights total 84 · main lineActual: UCF Knights under 84
Over 84
60.8%
@ 1.85+10.8pp
Under 84
39.2%
@ 1.85-10.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
UCF Knights total 88Actual: UCF Knights under 88
Over 88
44.1%
Under 88
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
South Alabama total 63Actual: South Alabama over 63
Over 63
78.7%
Under 63
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
South Alabama total 67 · main lineActual: South Alabama over 67
Over 67
64.8%
@ 1.85+14.8pp
Under 67
35.2%
@ 1.85-14.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
South Alabama total 71Actual: South Alabama under 71
Over 71
48.6%
Under 71
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread UCF Knights -20.5Actual: South Alabama +20.5
UCF -20.5
33.6%
@ 2.50-4.4pp
SOUT +20.5
66.4%
@ 1.50+4.4pp
Best 5 market prices
UCF
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.40
SOUT
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Spread UCF Knights -17.5 · main lineActual: South Alabama +17.5
UCF -17.5
43.8%
@ 1.95-4.2pp
SOUT +17.5
56.2%
@ 1.83+4.2pp
Best 5 market prices
UCF
Marathon Be
1.95
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.95
1xBet
1.83
SOUT
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Marathon Be
1.78
Bet365
1.74
Spread UCF Knights -14.5Actual: South Alabama +14.5
UCF -14.5
54.4%
@ 1.60-3.3pp
SOUT +14.5
45.6%
@ 2.20+3.3pp
Best 5 market prices
UCF
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.60
SOUT
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.18

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: -2.9-2.91st half: +0.1+0.12nd half2nd half: +1.4+1.42nd half: +1.6+1.6
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: -2.9-2.91st half: +0.1+0.12nd half2nd half: +1.4+1.42nd half: +1.6+1.6
UCF KnightsSouth Alabama
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
UCF KnightsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah Utes
#333
W
41-36
41
36
+5
A22/02
NCAA
Brigham Young
#76
W
52-28
52
28
+24
A25/02
NCAA
Baylor
#200
L
42-56
42
56
-14
H01/03
NCAA
Oklahoma State
#140
L
40-45
40
45
-5
H04/03
NCAA
West Virginia
#147
L
23-32
23
32
-9
A07/03
NCAA
Cincinnati
#161
L
26-27
26
27
-1
H11/03
NCAA
Arizona
#7
L
30-46
30
46
-16
A12/03
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
27-35
27
35
-8
A20/03
NCAA
Florida Gulf Coast
#312
L
36-38
36
38
-2
H03/11
NCAA
Yale
#327
L
39-42
39
42
-3
H07/11
NCAA
74.1Avg total
35.6Scored
38.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 72.5
Last 30 (30)37.037.674.6-0.643%60%
Last 30 at home (19)39.137.876.8+1.347%68%
Last 30 away (11)33.537.370.8-3.736%45%
Last 10 (10)35.638.574.1-2.920%70%
Last 5 (5)31.637.669.2-6.00%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)34.937.071.9-2.143%57%
vs Similar (17)37.038.575.5-1.541%53%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)39.735.875.5+3.850%83%
This opponent (South Alabama) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
South AlabamaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Miss
#174
W
42-36
42
36
+6
A13/02
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
32-41
32
41
-9
A14/02
NCAA
Marshall
#124
L
35-48
35
48
-13
A17/02
NCAA
Texas State
#125
L
33-40
33
40
-7
H20/02
NCAA
Troy
#84
W
33-26
33
26
+7
H21/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
42-14
42
14
+28
H26/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
L
29-35
29
35
-6
H28/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
43-40
43
40
+3
H07/03
NCAA
Ohio
#181
W
35-34
35
34
+1
H03/11
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#266
L
23-32
23
32
-9
H06/11
NCAA
69.3Avg total
34.7Scored
34.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 72.5
Last 30 (30)32.432.664.9-0.243%27%
Last 30 at home (17)32.830.563.3+2.253%18%
Last 30 away (13)31.835.267.1-3.431%38%
Last 10 (10)34.734.669.3+0.150%50%
Last 5 (5)34.431.065.4+3.460%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)27.034.061.0-7.00%0%
vs Similar (20)32.433.565.8-1.140%35%
vs Weaker (7)33.330.363.6+3.057%14%
This opponent (UCF Knights) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: South Alabama win
UCF win
no forecast
@ 1.11
SOUT win
no forecast
@ 6.80
1st half Spread UCF Knights -10 · main lineActual: South Alabama +10
UCF -10
no forecast
@ 1.87
SOUT +10
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Over/Under 72.5 · main lineActual: Under 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
UCF Knights 1st half total 41 · main lineActual: UCF Knights under 41
Over
no forecast
@ 1.84
Under
no forecast
@ 1.86
South Alabama 1st half total 31 · main lineActual: South Alabama over 31
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Over/Under 70.5Actual: Under 70.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.60
Under
no forecast
@ 2.18
1st half Over/Under 74.5Actual: Under 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.15
Under
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread UCF Knights -11.5Actual: South Alabama +11.5
UCF -11.5
no forecast
@ 2.15
SOUT +11.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread UCF Knights -8.5Actual: South Alabama +8.5
UCF -8.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
SOUT +8.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Over/Under 68.5Actual: Under 68.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.44
Under
no forecast
@ 2.57
1st half Over/Under 76.5Actual: Under 76.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.55
Under
no forecast
@ 1.45
1st half Spread UCF Knights -12.5Actual: South Alabama +12.5
UCF -12.5
no forecast
@ 2.37
SOUT +12.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread UCF Knights -7.5Actual: South Alabama +7.5
UCF -7.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
SOUT +7.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
1st half Spread UCF Knights -13.5Actual: South Alabama +13.5
UCF -13.5
no forecast
@ 2.65
SOUT +13.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
1st half Spread UCF Knights -6.5Actual: South Alabama +6.5
UCF -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.45
SOUT +6.5
no forecast
@ 2.52
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: UCF Knights (regulation)
UCF
no forecast
@ 1.13
Draw
no forecast
@ 29.00
SOUT
no forecast
@ 7.20

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
UCF win + total 151.5
🔒 Pro
SOUT win + total 151.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: UCF leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
South Alabama over 64.573.1%1.52
Betano
1.52		----+13.4ppWon
Over 14872.1%1.57
Bet365
1.57		----+13.2ppLost
Over 148.570.6%1.60
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.58		---+13.0ppLost
Over 147.572.7%1.54
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.52		---+12.6ppLost
South Alabama over 63.576.3%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+12.6ppWon
South Alabama over 62.579.3%1.35
Betano
1.35		----+12.2ppWon
Over 146.574.7%1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47		---+12.2ppLost
Over 145.576.7%1.42
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.40		---+11.9ppLost
Over 14774.2%1.50
Bet365
1.50		----+11.7ppLost
South Alabama over 61.582.1%1.30
Betano
1.30		----+11.6ppWon
Over 14676.2%1.43
Bet365
1.43		----+11.2ppLost
Over 14578.1%1.38
Bet365
1.38		----+11.1ppPush
Over 144.578.5%1.38
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.35		---+11.1ppWon
Over 14479.9%1.33
Bet365
1.33		----+9.9ppWon
UCF Knights over 80.573.1%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+9.6ppLost
UCF Knights over 79.576.3%1.35
Betano
1.35		----+9.5ppLost
Over 143.580.3%1.31
Bet365
1.31		----+9.3ppWon
South Alabama over 60.584.5%1.22
Bet365
1.22		----+8.4ppWon
UCF Knights over 75.586.8%1.18
Bet365
1.18		----+8.0ppWon
UCF Knights over 73.590.6%1.11
Bet365
1.11		----+6.8ppWon
South Alabama over 58.588.8%1.13
Bet365
1.13		----+6.5ppWon
UCF Knights over 69.595.6%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+6.3ppWon
UCF Knights over 71.593.5%1.07
Bet365
1.07		----+6.0ppWon
South Alabama over 56.592.2%1.08
Bet365
1.08		----+5.5ppWon
South Alabama over 54.594.7%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+5.3ppWon
South Alabama +2271.7%1.38
Bet365
1.38		----+4.7ppWon
South Alabama +23.575.4%1.31
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30		---+4.5ppWon
South Alabama +24.578.0%1.27
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25		---+4.5ppWon
South Alabama +22.572.6%1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.35		---+4.2ppWon
South Alabama +2374.7%1.32
Bet365
1.32		----+4.2ppWon
South Alabama +2477.4%1.26
Bet365
1.26		----+3.6ppWon
UCF Knights (regulation)90.2%1.05
1xBet
1.06
Betano
1.05
Marathon Bet
1.04		--+3.0ppWon
UCF Knights win91.4%1.04
1xBet
1.05
Marathon Bet
1.04
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
WilliamHill
1.02		+0.1ppWon
UCF Knights -8.574.2%1.22
Bet365
1.22		-----1.9ppLost
UCF Knights -9.571.3%1.27
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.26		----2.1ppLost
UCF Knights -1070.3%1.27
Bet365
1.27		-----2.5ppLost
UCF Knights -973.5%1.22
Bet365
1.22		-----2.5ppLost
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
UCF Knights wins
0
South Alabama wins
No previous meetings.
UCF Knightslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HYale87-75
03/11/26HFlorida Gulf Coast96-95 OT
20/03/26AUCLA71-75
12/03/26AArizona59-81
11/03/26HCincinnati66-65 OT
07/03/26AWest Virginia62-77
04/03/26HOklahoma State104-111 OT
01/03/26HBaylor86-87
25/02/26ABrigham Young97-84
22/02/26AUtah Utes73-71
South Alabamalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/26HJacksonville State83-80 OT
03/11/26HOhio77-86
07/03/26HGeorgia Southern85-94
28/02/26HSouthern Miss55-68
26/02/26HLouisiana Monroe89-54
21/02/26HTroy65-54
20/02/26HTexas State82-90 OT
17/02/26AMarshall80-84
14/02/26AArkansas State92-88 OT
13/02/26ASouthern Miss84-78

📊 11. Overall Statistics

UCF Knights
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game91.591.5-
Allowed / game85.085.0-
Point differential+6.5+6.5-
Avg total176.5176.5-
Over 151.5100%100%-
Win by 10+50%50%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %50%50%-
South Alabama
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLW50%
HomeLW50%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %50%50%-
Points / game80.080.0-
Allowed / game83.083.0-
Point differential-3.0-3.0-
Avg total163.0163.0-
Over 151.5100%100%-
Win by 10+0%0%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %50%50%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big 12 conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 TCU220100%102.056.5+45.5
2 West Virginia220100%91.049.5+41.5
3 Oklahoma State220100%104.564.0+40.5
4 Baylor220100%98.059.0+39.0
5 Kansas220100%92.055.0+37.0
6 Brigham Young220100%101.075.0+26.0
7 Texas Tech220100%76.050.0+26.0
8 Arizona State220100%82.564.0+18.5
9 UCF Knights220100%91.585.0+6.5
10 Utah Utes220100%66.560.0+6.5
11 Cincinnati32167%73.760.0+13.7
12 Colorado21150%80.068.0+12.0
13 Iowa State21150%79.568.5+11.0
14 Houston21150%81.070.5+10.5
15 Kansas State21150%80.573.0+7.5
16 Arizona21150%89.584.0+5.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Texas State220100%101.060.5+40.5
2 Old Dominion330100%78.052.7+25.3
3 Southern Miss21150%69.559.0+10.5
4 Georgia Southern21150%75.075.0+0.0
5 South Alabama21150%80.083.0-3.0
6 Arkansas State21150%78.585.5-7.0
7 Georgia State31233%83.771.3+12.3
8 Appalachian State31233%70.060.3+9.7
9 Marshall31233%80.776.7+4.0
10 Louisiana Monroe31233%81.382.0-0.7
11 Louisiana Lafayette31233%59.060.3-1.3
12 Coastal Carolina31233%62.380.0-17.7
13 James Madison2020%78.587.5-9.0
14 Troy2020%64.081.0-17.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
UCF Knights324476
South Alabama343569
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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