PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
UCLA hosts Long Beach State on 16 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Bruins the clear favourite, assigning them a 99% chance of victory thanks to their 2-0 record, 99.0 points per game and 69.0 allowed per game, the best season figures in the competition. The Bruins have won both of their games, scoring 99.0 points per game and allowing 69.0, while Long Beach State is 0-2, averaging 66.5 points and conceding 74.5. UCLA's recent wins include 114-63 over North Florida and 84-75 over Arizona, and their last five games show three wins and two losses; Long Beach State's recent outings include a 70-83 loss to Montana State, a 63-66 loss to Utah Utes and a 84-75 win over Hawaii, with two wins and three losses in their last five. Historically the Bruins have dominated the rivalry, winning all three meetings, most recently 93-69 on 11 November 2022. Pythia projects a 90-62 score, a 152.0 total, and a 99% probability that UCLA will cover the home line, while the over has a 0% chance; overtime is not expected. The Bruins' strong start and defensive edge set the tone for this matchup.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 101.3 | 58.3 | 159.7 | +43.0 | 100% |
| Season at home (3) | 101.3 | 58.3 | 159.7 | +43.0 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 82.3 | 65.5 | 147.8 | +16.8 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 87.2 | 63.8 | 151.0 | +23.4 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (9) | 70.4 | 77.0 | 147.4 | -6.6 | 44% |
| vs Similar (6) | 76.0 | 80.3 | 156.3 | -4.3 | 33% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (15) | 86.3 | 64.9 | 151.1 | +21.4 | 93% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 65.0 | 69.3 | 134.3 | -4.3 | 33% |
| Season at home (1) | 62.0 | 59.0 | 121.0 | +3.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 66.5 | 74.5 | 141.0 | -8.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 71.7 | 76.6 | 148.3 | -4.9 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 69.8 | 71.8 | 141.6 | -2.0 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (19) | 70.6 | 76.9 | 147.5 | -6.3 | 16% |
| vs Similar (7) | 78.1 | 80.9 | 159.0 | -2.7 | 43% |
| vs Weaker (4) | 90.8 | 76.5 | 167.2 | +14.2 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (29) | 37.4 | 33.7 | 71.1 | +3.7 | 59% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 39.2 | 31.6 | 70.8 | +7.6 | 71% | - |
| Last 30 away (12) | 34.8 | 36.8 | 71.6 | -1.9 | 42% | - |
| Last 10 (9) | 38.4 | 28.8 | 67.2 | +9.7 | 78% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 38.0 | 29.6 | 67.6 | +8.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (9) | 35.2 | 37.7 | 72.9 | -2.4 | 22% | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 31.7 | 36.3 | 68.0 | -4.7 | 33% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (14) | 41.3 | 30.1 | 71.4 | +11.2 | 93% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (29) | 35.3 | 37.2 | 72.5 | -1.9 | 38% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 36.8 | 35.5 | 72.3 | +1.3 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 33.9 | 38.8 | 72.7 | -4.9 | 27% | - |
| Last 10 (9) | 35.4 | 37.3 | 72.8 | -1.9 | 44% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 38.8 | 35.4 | 74.2 | +3.4 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (18) | 32.4 | 37.2 | 69.7 | -4.8 | 28% | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 37.6 | 36.4 | 74.0 | +1.1 | 43% | - |
| vs Weaker (4) | 44.2 | 38.5 | 82.8 | +5.8 | 75% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 12/11/22 | UCLA v Long Beach State | 93-69 |
| 07/01/22 | UCLA v Long Beach State | 96-78 |
| 16/11/21 | UCLA v Long Beach State | 100-79 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 106-37 |
| 07/11/26 | H | North Florida | 114-63 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Arizona | 84-75 |
| 23/03/26 | A | Uconn | 57-73 |
| 20/03/26 | H | UCF Knights | 75-71 |
| 14/03/26 | H | Purdue | 66-73 |
| 14/03/26 | A | Michigan State | 88-84 |
| 13/03/26 | H | Rutgers | 72-59 |
| 08/03/26 | A | USC | 89-68 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Nebraska | 72-52 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | Pacific | 62-59 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Montana State | 70-83 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Utah Utes | 63-66 |
| 08/03/26 | A | Hawaii | 84-75 |
| 06/03/26 | H | UC Davis | 70-76 OT |
| 01/03/26 | A | CSU Bakersfield | 88-87 |
| 27/02/26 | A | Cal Poly | 92-102 |
| 22/02/26 | H | CS Northridge | 76-78 |
| 20/02/26 | H | UC Irvine | 58-69 |
| 14/02/26 | A | UC Davis | 54-71 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 3 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 101.3 | 101.3 | - |
| Allowed / game | 58.3 | 58.3 | - |
| Point differential | +43.0 | +43.0 | - |
| Avg total | 159.7 | 159.7 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 67% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLW | 33% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Win % | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 65.0 | 62.0 | 66.5 |
| Allowed / game | 69.3 | 59.0 | 74.5 |
| Point differential | -4.3 | +3.0 | -8.0 |
| Avg total | 134.3 | 121.0 | 141.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 50% (2) | 100% (1) | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UCLA | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 101.3 | 58.3 | +43.0 |
| 2 |  Rutgers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 59.0 | +32.0 |
| 3 |  Nebraska | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 60.7 | +28.3 |
| 4 |  Oregon | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 68.7 | +26.3 |
| 5 |  Michigan State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 88.7 | 64.3 | +24.3 |
| 6 |  Wisconsin | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 79.0 | 58.0 | +21.0 |
| 7 |  Indiana | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 88.7 | 68.7 | +20.0 |
| 8 |  Northwestern | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 78.7 | 60.0 | +18.7 |
| 9 |  Minnesota | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 74.7 | 57.7 | +17.0 |
| 10 |  USC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 88.3 | 71.3 | +17.0 |
| 11 |  Washington | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.5 | 70.0 | +13.5 |
| 12 |  Illinois | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 103.3 | 66.3 | +37.0 |
| 13 |  Iowa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.0 | 64.7 | +20.3 |
| 14 |  Ohio State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.3 | 77.7 | +7.7 |
| 15 |  Michigan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.7 | 74.3 | +7.3 |
| 16 |  Purdue | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 78.0 | 71.3 | +6.7 |
| 17 |  Maryland | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 85.0 | 76.5 | +8.5 |
| 18 |  Penn State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 79.0 | 80.2 | -1.2 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UC Riverside | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 87.0 | 53.5 | +33.5 |
| 2 |  UC Irvine | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 61.7 | +29.3 |
| 3 |  CSU Bakersfield | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 92.0 | 67.0 | +25.0 |
| 4 |  UC Santa Barbara | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 83.7 | 61.7 | +22.0 |
| 5 |  UC San Diego | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 90.5 | 70.0 | +20.5 |
| 6 |  Hawaii | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 81.8 | 63.0 | +18.8 |
| 7 |  UC Davis | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 73.7 | 66.7 | +7.0 |
| 8 |  CS Fullerton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 82.5 | 93.5 | -11.0 |
| 9 | Long Beach State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 65.0 | 69.3 | -4.3 |
| 10 |  Cal Poly | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.7 | 88.3 | -10.7 |
| 11 |  CS Northridge | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 72.5 | 87.0 | -14.5 |
We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.
Cookies required to use the site and the features you have asked for. They provide the pages, predictions and account functions you requested. These are essential for the operation of our website.
Cookies that remember the preferences and settings from your last visit, so the site behaves the way you left it. They do not tell us who you are and they are not used to build a profile of you.
Cookies used to collect information about your usage of the site. These are used to produce aggregated statistics about visits to our pages. We use these statistics internally to test and improve the site and to give you a better experience. Without them our ability to provide a smoother experience may be degraded.
Cookies used to deliver adverts relevant to you based on your interests. This can include limiting the number of times you see an advert as well as helping us measure the effectiveness of an advert. Without these cookies you will still see adverts, but they will not be adjusted to your interests.
