Uconn hosts Ohio State on 13 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Uconn the clear favourite, rating them 95% to win because they are 3-0 this season, averaging 84.7 points per game while allowing only 54.7, and they sit 24th in the league. Ohio State is 2-1, scoring 85.3 and conceding 77.7, positioned 170th. Uconn has won both of its home games, 2-0, posting 84.5 points and 43.5 allowed, and its last five games include a 86-46 win over Gardner Webb, an 85-77 victory against Michigan, and an 83-41 triumph over Wagner. Ohio State's road record is 0-1, with 83 points scored and 94 allowed, and its last five games feature a 89-65 win over Youngstown State, a 84-74 win over Marshall, and a 83-94 loss to Brigham Young. The two teams have met once before, with the last meeting noted in the data. Pythia projects a 83-64 score, 146.8 total points, and gives Uconn a 78% chance to cover the -11.0 spread, while the over on 147.5 has a 48% probability; overtime is unlikely at 1%. The game will hinge on Uconn's defensive dominance and Ohio State's recent struggles on the road.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Uconn winWon
95.2%fair 1.05
Best odds1.17
Implied83.8%
Edge+11.3pp
Ohio State winLost
4.8%fair 20.68
Best odds6.00
Implied16.2%
Edge-11.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Uconn) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 142.5Actual: Over 142.5
Over 142.5
60.3%
@ 1.50-2.2pp
Under 142.5
39.7%
@ 2.55+2.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.40
Over/Under 147.5 · main lineActual: Over 147.5
Over 147.5
48.0%
@ 1.93-1.5pp
Under 147.5
52.0%
@ 1.90+1.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.91
SBO
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Betano
1.85
Over/Under 152.5Actual: Under 152.5
Over 152.5
35.9%
@ 2.60-0.6pp
Under 152.5
64.1%
@ 1.47+0.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.47
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
📊 3. Team Totals
Uconn total 75Actual: Uconn over 75
Over 75
80.4%
Under 75
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uconn total 79 · main lineActual: Uconn over 79
Over 79
66.9%
@ 1.85+16.9pp
Under 79
33.1%
@ 1.85-16.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Uconn total 83Actual: Uconn over 83
Over 83
50.6%
Under 83
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ohio State total 64Actual: Ohio State over 64
Over 64
48.1%
Under 64
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ohio State total 68 · main linePush
Over 68
32.2%
@ 1.85-18.1pp
Under 68
67.8%
@ 1.87+18.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Ohio State total 72Actual: Ohio State under 72
Over 72
19.2%
Under 72
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Uconn -14Actual: Uconn -14
UCON -14
69.3%
@ 2.25+28.2pp
OHIO +14
30.7%
@ 1.57-28.2pp
Best 5 market prices
UCON
Bet365
2.25
OHIO
Bet365
1.57
Spread Uconn -11 · main lineActual: Uconn -11
UCON -11
78.1%
@ 1.94+28.5pp
OHIO +11
21.9%
@ 1.95-28.5pp
Best 5 market prices
UCON
Pinnacle
1.94
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.74
OHIO
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.91
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.83
Spread Uconn -8Actual: Uconn -8
UCON -8
85.2%
@ 1.50+22.7pp
OHIO +8
14.8%
@ 2.50-22.7pp
Best 5 market prices
UCON
Bet365
1.50
OHIO
Bet365
2.50
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
UconnOhio State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Uconn -13
72.4%
2.21
Pinnacle
2.33
Bet365
2.10
-
-
-
+31.4pp
Won
Uconn -12
75.4%
2.03
Pinnacle
2.13
Marathon Bet
2.00
Bet365
1.96
-
-
+30.4pp
Won
Uconn -12.5
73.2%
2.10
Pinnacle
2.23
Betano
2.05
Bet365
2.01
-
-
+30.3pp
Won
Uconn -11.5
76.0%
1.92
Pinnacle
2.03
Marathon Bet
1.95
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.91
SBO
1.88
+28.9pp
Won
Uconn -11
78.1%
1.84
Pinnacle
1.94
Marathon Bet
1.88
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.74
-
+28.5pp
Won
Uconn -13.5
70.3%
2.17
Betano
2.18
Bet365
2.15
-
-
-
+27.6pp
Won
Uconn -10.5
78.7%
1.77
Pinnacle
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.81
Betano
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
SBO
1.75
+26.6pp
Won
Uconn -10
80.7%
1.75
SBO
1.81
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathon Bet
1.75
Bet365
1.66
-
+26.3pp
Won
Uconn -9
83.0%
1.65
SBO
1.73
Pinnacle
1.65
Bet365
1.57
-
-
+24.9pp
Won
Uconn -9.5
81.1%
1.70
BetVictor
1.78
SBO
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathon Bet
1.69
+24.7pp
Won
Uconn -8.5
83.4%
1.62
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.55
-
-
+24.5pp
Won
Uconn -8
85.2%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+22.7pp
Won
Uconn -7.5
85.5%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+22.5pp
Won
Uconn -2.5
93.2%
1.30
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
-
+21.8pp
Won
Uconn -6.5
87.4%
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+21.5pp
Won
Uconn -7
87.2%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+21.5pp
Won
Uconn over 78
70.6%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+20.6pp
Won
Uconn -5.5
89.1%
1.35
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+20.2pp
Won
Uconn -6
89.0%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+20.0pp
Won
Uconn -5
90.6%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+19.1pp
Won
Uconn -4.5
90.7%
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
+18.9pp
Won
Uconn -3.5
92.1%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+18.7pp
Won
Ohio State under 69.5
72.4%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.74
Betano
1.62
-
-
-
+18.2pp
Won
Uconn over 77.5
71.6%
1.72
WilliamHill
1.80
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.60
-
-
+17.8pp
Won
Uconn (regulation)
94.3%
1.17
Marathon Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
-
-
-
+17.5pp
Won
Uconn -4
92.0%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+17.3pp
Won
Uconn over 72.5
85.9%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+16.8pp
Won
Ohio State under 70.5
75.6%
1.50
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
-
+15.4pp
Won
Uconn over 73.5
83.6%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+14.8pp
Won
Ohio State under 71.5
78.6%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+14.8pp
Won
Ohio State under 73.5
83.9%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+14.8pp
Won
Uconn over 76.5
75.0%
1.50
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
-
+14.4pp
Won
Ohio State under 72.5
81.3%
1.35
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
-
+14.3pp
Won
Uconn over 75.5
78.1%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+14.1pp
Won
Uconn over 74.5
80.9%
1.34
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
-
+13.3pp
Won
Uconn win
95.2%
1.14
Marathon Bet
1.17
Betano
1.15
Pinnacle
1.15
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
+11.3pp
Won
Uconn over 70.5
89.9%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Overtime: no
98.8%
1.02
Betano
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Won
Under 155.5
70.7%
1.33
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Under 155
70.1%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Ohio State over 52.5
86.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Ohio State over 54.5
81.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.8pp
Won
Ohio State over 56.5
76.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-11.4pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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