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Ulm vs Aris Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 31 Jan 2024
Tip-off: 18:30
Final 66-86
26-23 14-26 8-22 18-15
Position#9
Record9-7
FormLLWWL
Points / game88.2
Allowed / game87.0
vs
Aris 🏆
Position#11
Record7-9
FormLWWLW
Points / game73.2
Allowed / game75.6
EuropeEurocupRound 17· Ratiopharm Arena
European cup2023
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ulm winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Aris winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

UlmLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormUlm
Date
Competition
Turk Telekom
#15
L
79-85
79
85
-6
70avg 82
H26/12
Eurocup
Syntainics MBC
#13
W
107-75
107
75
+32
107avg 82
A29/12
BBL
Basketball Braunschweig
#12
W
90-73
90
73
+17
89avg 82
H02/01
BBL
Gottingen
#14
W
100-90
100
90
+10
98avg 82
A06/01
BBL
Slask Wroclaw
#18
L
88-100
88
100
-12
90avg 82
A10/01
Eurocup
Vechta
#6
L
102-106 OT
102
106
-4
no box
H13/01
BBL
Cluj-Napoca
#4
L
81-85
81
85
-4
77avg 82
H17/01
Eurocup
Bamberg
#11
W
84-76
84
76
+8
76avg 82
A19/01
BBL
Buducnost
#13
W
84-80 OT
84
80
+4
75avg 82
A23/01
Eurocup
Tubingen
#18
L
76-97
76
97
-21
62avg 82
H27/01
BBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-19
22-21
15-21
23-24
33-19
27-20
13-21
34-15
15-11
23-21
28-21
24-20
26-23
24-24
16-24
34-19
19-21
18-31
25-18
26-30
23-22
19-24
23-27
27-19
24-17
27-19
15-19
15-30
21-18
22-18
19-27
22-13
17-16
21-14
21-18
13-24
23-31
25-25
21-26
7-15
175.8Avg total
89.1Scored
86.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)88.287.0175.2+1.256%
Season at home (8)89.884.0173.8+5.862%
Season away (8)86.890.0176.8-3.250%
Last 10 (10)89.186.7175.8+2.450%
Last 5 (5)85.488.8174.2-3.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)88.590.2178.8-1.850%
vs Similar ◀ (12)86.985.6172.5+1.358%
vs Weaker (14)93.988.4182.3+5.671%
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ArisLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAris
Date
Competition
Lavrio
#13
L
86-91 OT
86
91
-5
no box
A23/12
Basket League
Slask Wroclaw
#18
W
93-71
93
71
+22
93avg 68
H27/12
Eurocup
Olympiacos
#3
L
71-85
71
85
-14
58avg 68
A31/12
Basket League
Apollon Patras
#17
W
76-63
76
63
+13
73avg 68
H06/01
Basket League
Cluj-Napoca
#4
L
74-90
74
90
-16
64avg 68
A10/01
Eurocup
AS Karditsas
#12
L
71-80
71
80
-9
58avg 68
A14/01
Basket League
Buducnost
#13
W
76-75
76
75
+1
67avg 68
H17/01
Eurocup
AEK Athens
#9
W
93-91
93
91
+2
88avg 68
A20/01
Basket League
JL Bourg
#2
L
68-76
68
76
-8
55avg 68
H24/01
Eurocup
Kolossos Rhodes
#15
W
98-91
98
91
+7
90avg 68
H28/01
Basket League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-21
9-24
20-15
27-16
22-11
27-22
22-17
22-21
11-20
16-21
27-18
17-26
17-14
18-17
21-10
20-22
22-23
16-22
16-31
20-14
19-23
19-21
20-15
13-21
17-18
17-21
20-24
22-12
19-22
24-20
24-29
26-20
10-22
24-17
17-20
17-17
23-18
30-30
18-21
27-22
161.9Avg total
80.6Scored
81.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)73.275.6148.8-2.344%
Season at home (8)73.473.8147.1-0.450%
Season away (8)73.177.4150.5-4.238%
Last 10 (10)80.681.3161.9-0.750%
Last 5 (5)81.282.6163.8-1.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)69.078.0147.0-9.011%
vs Similar ◀ (16)78.877.0155.8+1.869%
vs Weaker (5)82.471.6154.0+10.880%
This opponent (Ulm) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +2.3+2.3Q1: -1.2-1.2Q2Q2: +1.1+1.1Q2: -1.5-1.5Q3Q3: -2.6-2.6Q3: +0.5+0.5Q4Q4: +1.6+1.6Q4: +2.0+2.0
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +2.3+2.3Q1: -1.2-1.2Q2Q2: +1.1+1.1Q2: -1.5-1.5Q3Q3: -2.6-2.6Q3: +0.5+0.5Q4Q4: +1.6+1.6Q4: +2.0+2.0
UlmAris
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
UlmLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Turk Telekom
#15
W
41-40
41
40
+1
H26/12
Eurocup
Syntainics MBC
#13
W
60-39
60
39
+21
A29/12
BBL
Basketball Braunschweig
#12
W
38-32
38
32
+6
H02/01
BBL
Gottingen
#14
W
50-47
50
47
+3
A06/01
BBL
Slask Wroclaw
#18
L
37-52
37
52
-15
A10/01
Eurocup
Vechta
#6
L
42-46
42
46
-4
H13/01
BBL
Cluj-Napoca
#4
W
51-36
51
36
+15
H17/01
Eurocup
Bamberg
#11
W
43-36
43
36
+7
A19/01
BBL
Buducnost
#13
W
38-30
38
30
+8
A23/01
Eurocup
Tubingen
#18
L
48-56
48
56
-8
H27/01
BBL
86.2Avg total
44.8Scored
41.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.742.887.5+1.963%-
Last 30 at home (15)45.544.590.0+1.153%-
Last 30 away (15)43.941.184.9+2.873%-
Last 10 (10)44.841.486.2+3.470%-
Last 5 (5)44.440.885.2+3.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)40.246.086.2-5.825%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)41.739.881.4+1.958%-
vs Weaker (14)48.644.493.0+4.179%-
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ArisLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lavrio
#13
L
29-45
29
45
-16
A23/12
Basket League
Slask Wroclaw
#18
W
49-33
49
33
+16
H27/12
Eurocup
Olympiacos
#3
L
27-41
27
41
-14
A31/12
Basket League
Apollon Patras
#17
W
35-31
35
31
+4
H06/01
Basket League
Cluj-Napoca
#4
L
38-45
38
45
-7
A10/01
Eurocup
AS Karditsas
#12
L
38-44
38
44
-6
A14/01
Basket League
Buducnost
#13
L
34-39
34
39
-5
H17/01
Eurocup
AEK Athens
#9
W
43-42
43
42
+1
A20/01
Basket League
JL Bourg
#2
L
34-39
34
39
-5
H24/01
Eurocup
Kolossos Rhodes
#15
W
53-48
53
48
+5
H28/01
Basket League
78.7Avg total
38.0Scored
40.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.238.275.4-1.050%-
Last 30 at home (14)36.234.971.1+1.364%-
Last 30 away (16)38.141.179.2-3.138%-
Last 10 (10)38.040.778.7-2.740%-
Last 5 (5)40.442.482.8-2.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)33.638.271.8-4.733%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)38.438.677.0-0.150%-
vs Weaker (5)39.837.277.0+2.680%-
This opponent (Ulm) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Ulmtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Ulm: 87.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.8 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.7 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.2 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.523.4
60.8%
54.0%46.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.68.4
31.6%
35.5%25.2
🏀 Free throws21.215.7
74.1%
74.5%15.7
They take 65.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Aristheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aris: 80.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.6 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.6 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.2 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.717.3
52.9%
54.0%34.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.510.5
38.2%
35.5%31.5
🏀 Free throws19.314.6
75.6%
74.5%14.6
They take 60.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 31 Jan 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Ulm
LWWLLLWWWL
Aris
WLWWLLWLWL
#9
League position
#11
+4.8
Net rating
+1.1
113.7
Offensive rating
110.3
108.9
Defensive rating
109.2
55.3%
Effective FG%
54.9%
56.6%
Opp. effective FG%
53.1%
19.2%
Turnover %
20.0%
34.6%
Off. rebound %
31.3%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.32
31.6%
3-point %
38.2%
69.2%
Assist %
55.0%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence113.7 · 110.3Defence108.9 · 109.2Shooting55.3% · 54.9%3-point %31.6% · 38.2%Ball care19.2% · 20.0%Off. rebounds34.6% · 31.3%Free throws0.33 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)50% · 50%
■ Ulm   ■ Aris
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Ulm wins
0
Aris wins
DateGameScore
22/11/23Aris v Ulm88-99 OT
Ulmlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/01/24HTubingen76-97
23/01/24ABuducnost84-80 OT
19/01/24ABamberg84-76
17/01/24HCluj-Napoca81-85
13/01/24HVechta102-106 OT
10/01/24ASlask Wroclaw88-100
06/01/24AGottingen100-90
02/01/24HBasketball Braunschweig90-73
29/12/23ASyntainics MBC107-75
26/12/23HTurk Telekom79-85
Arislast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/01/24HKolossos Rhodes98-91
24/01/24HJL Bourg68-76
20/01/24AAEK Athens93-91
17/01/24HBuducnost76-75
14/01/24AAS Karditsas71-80
10/01/24ACluj-Napoca74-90
06/01/24HApollon Patras76-63
31/12/23AOlympiacos71-85
27/12/23HSlask Wroclaw93-71
23/12/23ALavrio86-91 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Ulm
Eurocup 2023
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW56%
HomeWLWLL62%
AwayWWLLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1688
Win %56%62%50%
Points / game88.289.886.8
Allowed / game87.084.090.0
Point differential+1.2+5.8-3.2
Avg total175.2173.8176.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%38%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)50% (4)67% (3)
Overtime %25%25%25%
Aris
Eurocup 2023
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL44%
HomeLWWWL50%
AwayLLLWL38%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1688
Win %44%50%38%
Points / game73.273.473.1
Allowed / game75.673.877.4
Point differential-2.3-0.4-4.2
Avg total148.8147.1150.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%12%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)67% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %6%12%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Paris1716194%98.279.9+18.3
2 JL Bourg1714382%83.675.9+7.6
3 Gran Canaria1612475%88.378.3+10.0
4 Cluj-Napoca1612475%84.880.3+4.5
5 Hapoel Tel-Aviv1712571%96.289.8+6.4
6 London Lions1712571%90.987.2+3.7
7 Joventut Badalona1710759%86.684.8+1.8
8 Ulm169756%88.287.0+1.2
9 Prometey179853%88.587.9+0.6
10 Besiktas179853%79.379.6-0.4
11 Aris167944%73.275.6-2.3
12 Trento167944%80.082.9-2.9
13 Turk Telekom1771041%79.880.8-0.9
14 Venezia1771041%84.486.0-1.6
15 BC Wolves1771041%81.687.6-6.0
16 Buducnost1661038%77.981.9-4.0
17 Lietkabelis1761135%82.187.1-5.0
18 Slask Wroclaw1721512%77.184.9-7.8
19 Hamburg1721512%82.299.2-16.9
20 Cedevita Olimpija171166%85.591.4-5.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Ulm261481866
Aris2326221586
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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