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UMass vs Toledo Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 20 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 84-82
35-34 49-48
Position#189
Record11-8
FormLLWWL
Points / game80.1
Allowed / game74.2
UMass 🏆
USA
vs
Position#156
Record10-8
FormLWWLL
Points / game82.8
Allowed / game78.3
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · UMass v Toledo
12 Jan 2027
UMAS v TOLE
upcoming
20 Jan 2026
UMAS84
TOLE82
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

UMass winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Toledo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

UMassUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boston College
#308
W
76-74
76
74
+2
A11/12
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
103-95
103
95
+8
A13/12
NCAA
Kent State
#52
L
59-69
59
69
-10
H20/12
NCAA
Massachusetts-Boston
#631
W
91-40
91
40
+51
H22/12
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
L
74-80
74
80
-6
A31/12
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
L
100-101 OT
100
101
-1
H03/01
NCAA
Ohio
#241
L
83-86
83
86
-3
A06/01
NCAA
Ball State
#288
W
79-71
79
71
+8
H10/01
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
85-82
85
82
+3
A14/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
L
68-70
68
70
-2
A17/01
NCAA
1H
2H
35-33
41-41
43-47
60-48
24-35
35-34
41-21
50-19
41-38
33-42
34-34
52-52
41-48
42-38
28-25
51-46
36-35
49-47
33-40
35-30
158.6Avg total
81.8Scored
76.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)80.174.2154.3+5.958%
Season at home (11)81.471.6153.0+9.764%
Season away (8)78.477.6156.0+0.850%
Last 10 (10)81.876.8158.6+5.050%
Last 5 (5)83.082.0165.0+1.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)68.479.5147.9-11.112%
vs Similar ◀ (14)76.873.5150.3+3.350%
vs Weaker (7)76.471.7148.1+4.771%
This opponent (Toledo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ToledoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cordoba
#5
W
76-74
76
74
+2
H21/12
Segunda FEB
Western Michigan
#325
W
84-79
84
79
+5
H30/12
NCAA
Caceres
#13
W
96-95 OT
96
95
+1
A03/01
Segunda FEB
Central Michigan
#323
W
78-75
78
75
+3
A03/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
W
75-61
75
61
+14
A07/01
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
73-87
73
87
-14
H09/01
NCAA
CBC Valladolid
#7
W
87-73
87
73
+14
H11/01
Segunda FEB
Ohio
#241
W
101-85
101
85
+16
H14/01
NCAA
Kent State
#52
L
84-87
84
87
-3
A16/01
NCAA
Valle de Egues
#28
L
81-83
81
83
-2
A17/01
Segunda FEB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-22
17-16
14-19
27-17
0-0
32-41
0-0
52-38
24-22
15-18
21-25
26-21
0-0
31-41
0-0
47-34
0-0
37-25
0-0
38-36
0-0
36-56
0-0
37-31
23-22
23-13
25-22
16-16
0-0
52-50
0-0
49-35
0-0
41-35
0-0
43-52
19-23
21-17
24-16
17-27
163.4Avg total
83.5Scored
79.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)82.878.3161.1+4.556%
Season at home (9)87.777.2164.9+10.467%
Season away (9)77.979.3157.2-1.444%
Last 10 (10)83.579.9163.4+3.670%
Last 5 (5)85.283.0168.2+2.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)71.388.7160.0-17.30%
vs Similar ◀ (16)80.880.4161.2+0.438%
vs Weaker (10)88.374.2162.5+14.190%
This opponent (UMass) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +0.0+0.01st half: -1.2-1.22nd half2nd half: +5.1+5.12nd half: +4.7+4.7
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +0.0+0.01st half: -1.2-1.22nd half2nd half: +5.1+5.12nd half: +4.7+4.7
UMassToledo
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
UMassLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boston College
#308
W
35-33
35
33
+2
A11/12
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
43-47
43
47
-4
A13/12
NCAA
Kent State
#52
L
24-35
24
35
-11
H20/12
NCAA
Massachusetts-Boston
#631
W
41-21
41
21
+20
H22/12
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
W
41-38
41
38
+3
A31/12
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
D
34-34
34
34
+0
H03/01
NCAA
Ohio
#241
L
41-48
41
48
-7
A06/01
NCAA
Ball State
#288
W
28-25
28
25
+3
H10/01
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
36-35
36
35
+1
A14/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A17/01
NCAA
71.2Avg total
35.6Scored
35.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.235.069.2-0.847%-
Last 30 at home (17)34.733.968.6+0.841%-
Last 30 away (13)33.636.470.0-2.854%-
Last 10 (10)35.635.671.2+0.050%-
Last 5 (5)34.436.470.8-2.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)30.939.470.2-8.512%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)35.034.369.3+0.743%-
vs Weaker (7)35.633.469.0+2.186%-
This opponent (Toledo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ToledoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cordoba
#5
L
35-38
35
38
-3
H21/12
Segunda FEB
Western Michigan
#325
L
32-41
32
41
-9
H30/12
NCAA
Caceres
#13
L
39-40
39
40
-1
A03/01
Segunda FEB
Central Michigan
#323
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A03/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
W
37-25
37
25
+12
A07/01
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
36-56
36
56
-20
H09/01
NCAA
CBC Valladolid
#7
W
46-35
46
35
+11
H11/01
Segunda FEB
Ohio
#241
W
52-50
52
50
+2
H14/01
NCAA
Kent State
#52
W
41-35
41
35
+6
A16/01
NCAA
Valle de Egues
#28
D
40-40
40
40
+0
A17/01
Segunda FEB
79.0Avg total
38.9Scored
40.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.437.977.3+1.453%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.836.678.4+5.267%-
Last 30 away (15)36.939.376.2-2.340%-
Last 10 (10)38.940.179.0-1.240%-
Last 5 (5)43.043.286.2-0.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)32.350.082.3-17.70%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)38.337.976.2+0.450%-
vs Weaker (10)42.235.477.6+6.870%-
This opponent (UMass) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
UMass wins
0
Toledo wins
No previous meetings.
UMasslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/01/26ANorthern Illinois68-70
14/01/26AWestern Michigan85-82
10/01/26HBall State79-71
06/01/26AOhio83-86
03/01/26HBowling Green100-101 OT
31/12/25AEastern Michigan74-80
22/12/25HMassachusetts-Boston91-40
20/12/25HKent State59-69
13/12/25AFlorida State103-95
11/12/25ABoston College76-74
Toledolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/01/26AValle de Egues81-83
16/01/26AKent State84-87
14/01/26HOhio101-85
11/01/26HCBC Valladolid87-73
09/01/26HMiami (Ohio)73-87
07/01/26ANorthern Illinois75-61
03/01/26ACentral Michigan78-75
03/01/26ACaceres96-95 OT
30/12/25HWestern Michigan84-79
21/12/25HCordoba76-74

📊 11. Overall Statistics

UMass
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL58%
HomeWLWLW64%
AwayWLLWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19118
Win %58%64%50%
Points / game80.181.478.4
Allowed / game74.271.677.6
Point differential+5.9+9.7+0.8
Avg total154.3153.0156.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+21%36%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won29% (7)0% (2)40% (5)
Overtime %5%9%0%
Toledo
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL56%
HomeWWWLW67%
AwayLLWWL44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1899
Win %56%67%44%
Points / game82.887.777.9
Allowed / game78.377.279.3
Point differential+4.5+10.4-1.4
Avg total161.1164.9157.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%44%22%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)50% (2)25% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Miami (Ohio)19190100%93.973.3+20.6
2 Akron1814478%93.676.5+17.1
3 Kent State1813572%89.882.3+7.5
4 Buffalo1813572%81.274.5+6.7
5 Bowling Green1812667%87.871.2+16.6
6 UMass1911858%80.174.2+5.9
7 Toledo1810856%82.878.3+4.5
8 Ohio1910953%78.177.2+0.9
9 Eastern Michigan1991047%71.971.6+0.3
10 Western Michigan1871139%77.180.1-2.9
11 Northern Illinois1761135%73.977.5-3.6
12 Ball State1851328%68.470.8-2.4
13 Central Michigan1851328%72.179.9-7.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
UMass354984
Toledo344882
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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