PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
The UMBC Retrievers will host Iona on 16 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names UMBC the clear favourite, giving them a 77% chance of victory largely because their season average of 70.4 points per game outscoring opponents' 73.8 and a 2-3 record that includes a perfect 2-0 home run with 88.0 points scored and 65.5 allowed per game, while Iona struggles at 64.8 points scored and 69.6 allowed on a 2-3 record that has seen them win none of their last three road outings, scoring 65.3 and conceding 81.3. UMBC's recent wins over Morgan State 85-70 and McDaniel 91-61 contrast with Iona's three straight away defeats to Hofstra, Fordham and St. John's (N.Y.), the last a 65-104 loss. The two teams have met once before, with the last meeting recorded as a 75-67 win for UMBC. Pythia projects a 75-67 score, a total of 141.6 points, and a 4% chance of overtime, while the home team covers the line with a 77% probability. The game ends with UMBC's 75 points, Iona's 67.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 70.4 | 73.8 | 144.2 | -3.4 | 40% |
| Season at home (2) | 88.0 | 65.5 | 153.5 | +22.5 | 100% |
| Season away (3) | 58.7 | 79.3 | 138.0 | -20.7 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 77.5 | 70.4 | 147.9 | +7.1 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 70.4 | 73.8 | 144.2 | -3.4 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (3) | 60.3 | 73.3 | 133.7 | -13.0 | 33% |
| vs Similar ◀ (3) | 77.3 | 89.3 | 166.7 | -12.0 | 0% |
| vs Weaker (23) | 77.2 | 64.5 | 141.7 | +12.7 | 83% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 64.8 | 69.6 | 134.4 | -4.8 | 40% |
| Season at home (2) | 64.0 | 52.0 | 116.0 | +12.0 | 100% |
| Season away (3) | 65.3 | 81.3 | 146.7 | -16.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 71.1 | 71.4 | 142.5 | -0.3 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 64.8 | 69.6 | 134.4 | -4.8 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (7) | 62.4 | 78.7 | 141.1 | -16.3 | 29% |
| vs Similar ◀ (12) | 71.9 | 75.8 | 147.7 | -3.8 | 33% |
| vs Weaker (11) | 72.3 | 60.4 | 132.6 | +11.9 | 82% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.7 | 31.6 | 67.3 | +4.1 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 37.9 | 30.8 | 68.7 | +7.1 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 33.4 | 32.4 | 65.8 | +1.0 | 40% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.6 | 33.1 | 69.7 | +3.5 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 34.4 | 34.2 | 68.6 | +0.2 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (3) | 29.3 | 36.0 | 65.3 | -6.7 | 33% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (3) | 34.3 | 44.0 | 78.3 | -9.7 | 0% | - |
| vs Weaker (23) | 36.0 | 29.7 | 65.7 | +6.3 | 70% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 32.7 | 32.8 | 65.5 | -0.1 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 33.6 | 30.1 | 63.8 | +3.5 | 57% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 31.9 | 35.2 | 67.1 | -3.3 | 44% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 30.6 | 32.4 | 63.0 | -1.8 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 28.0 | 33.4 | 61.4 | -5.4 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (7) | 26.4 | 38.0 | 64.4 | -11.6 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (12) | 34.6 | 34.2 | 68.8 | +0.3 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker (11) | 34.6 | 28.0 | 62.6 | +6.6 | 82% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/26 | A | Towson | 42-68 |
| 12/11/26 | H | Morgan State | 85-70 |
| 09/11/26 | H | McDaniel | 91-61 |
| 06/11/26 | A | Marist | 80-88 |
| 02/11/26 | A | George Mason | 54-82 |
| 17/03/26 | A | Howard | 83-86 |
| 14/03/26 | H | Vermont | 74-59 |
| 10/03/26 | H | UMass Lowell | 91-69 |
| 07/03/26 | H | New Hampshire Wildcats | 84-69 |
| 03/03/26 | A | NJIT | 91-52 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | Hofstra | 59-62 OT |
| 11/11/26 | A | Fordham | 72-78 |
| 08/11/26 | A | St. John's (N.Y.) | 65-104 |
| 06/11/26 | H | NJIT | 72-49 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Vermont | 56-55 |
| 05/03/26 | H | Sacred Heart | 80-91 |
| 01/03/26 | A | Manhattan | 69-65 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Rider | 80-58 |
| 22/02/26 | A | Merrimack Warriors | 86-88 OT |
| 21/02/26 | H | St. Peters | 72-64 OT |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLWWL | 40% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | LLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Win % | 40% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 70.4 | 88.0 | 58.7 |
| Allowed / game | 73.8 | 65.5 | 79.3 |
| Point differential | -3.4 | +22.5 | -20.7 |
| Avg total | 144.2 | 153.5 | 138.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 40% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWLLL | 40% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | LLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Win % | 40% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 64.8 | 64.0 | 65.3 |
| Allowed / game | 69.6 | 52.0 | 81.3 |
| Point differential | -4.8 | +12.0 | -16.0 |
| Avg total | 134.4 | 116.0 | 146.7 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 20% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 50% (2) | 100% (1) | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 20% | 0% | 33% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UMass Lowell | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 79.2 | 62.8 | +16.5 |
| 2 |  Binghamton | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 67.6 | 67.4 | +0.2 |
| 3 |  Vermont | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 78.5 | 65.2 | +13.2 |
| 4 | UMBC Retrievers | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 70.4 | 73.8 | -3.4 |
| 5 |  Maine Black Bears | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 64.2 | 72.0 | -7.8 |
| 6 |  Bryant University | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 60.2 | 71.8 | -11.6 |
| 7 |  NJIT | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | 55.7 | 77.3 | -21.7 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Siena | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 83.8 | 77.8 | +6.0 |
| 2 |  Sacred Heart | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 84.8 | 68.2 | +16.5 |
| 3 |  Merrimack Warriors | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 62.8 | 65.8 | -3.0 |
| 4 |  Canisius | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 77.2 | 81.5 | -4.2 |
| 5 |  Quinnipiac | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 68.5 | 75.5 | -7.0 |
| 6 |  Fairfield | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 60.0 | 71.8 | -11.8 |
| 7 | Iona | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 64.8 | 69.6 | -4.8 |
| 8 |  Mount St. Mary's | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 60.7 | 78.7 | -18.0 |
| 9 |  Marist | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 67.8 | 69.2 | -1.5 |
| 10 |  Manhattan | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 63.8 | 73.8 | -10.0 |
| 11 |  Rider | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 64.0 | 77.6 | -13.6 |
| 12 |  St. Peters | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 47.5 | 63.8 | -16.2 |
| 13 |  Niagara | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 63.0 | 84.0 | -21.0 |
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